Quoting renasdadDislikedIt is almost impossible to detect when a month will be profitable. It is very hard to do. Predicting how profitable a month will be is about the same as predicting what the news will be. It isn't gonna happen.
A person could look at past history and see what certain months did and then see if there is some kind of sequence.
The only way to predict the future is to get a crystal ball.Ignored
- #1,406
- Edited 11:52am Sep 9, 2006 10:43am | Edited 11:52am
Edit: I uploaded the wrong file!! Look at the post following this one for the correct files... so sorry everyone... =(
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I'm glad some people liked the indicator. ^^ Attached to this message are some buzzer wavs that I use to wake myself (and the neighbors) up in case of a signal. You should only use this if you are confident you could shake off a sleepy head within 2-3 minutes, effectively analyze the markets, place your trade, then go back to sleep.
Anyway, I forgot to say some things in my last post. This is long (I like to write.... a lot....), so I'll divide it into sections.
How the MT4 Indicator Works
I suggest adding the actual ema 18/28 to see how fat the tunnel is and entering on the signal only if the tunnel is thin or about to cross. I tried programming to make it draw the EMAs, but for some reason, I can't get it to work...
Also, if you scroll back too far, the arrows and dots get all whacky and get placed all over... I don't know how to fix that. Just close and reopen metatrader or recompile the indicator using MetaEditor.
So how the indicator works... The dots are pretty simple -- they just tell you when the ema18/28 crosses with no filter. Sometimes entering based solely on a tunnel cross works, sometimes it doesn't (NZD/JPY seem to work well on Tunnel crosses, but please use your own discretion). If you are entering in based solely on tunnel crosses all the time, then please re-read the Sidus system.
For the arrows, it happens when the WMAs cross both tunnel lines. This is the actual signal to get in -- please correct me if I'm wrong. The arrow is displayed on the close of the candle, thus you would get in on the next candle after the arrow. Many times I see the candle after the arrow retrace a little, allowing you a better entry point to breakeven with the spread. These arrows are filtered with RSI + CCI, which you can remove if you like.
How I Close & What I Do in Loss
I actually use both the Sidus tunnel and absolute fibs to close. If I get in on a signal and am in loss, I do one of two things:
1. If soon after my entry, the Sidus tunnel crosses (dot) or I get a full signal (arrow) both the other way (crap), I know I'm in for more losses, so I close or close & reverse.
2. If I don't see or hear a cross/signal, I just stick out any losses I have incurred. You have to give something to gain something, you know?
As for the absolute fibs, I know I should stay in until the next Sidus tunnel cross (the original method), but keeping in mind the lagging aspect, price action would have to retrace quite a lot OR it would have to channel for some time and then retrace before the tunnels will cross. Either way would cut into profits. Thus, I decided to use absolute fibs instead. At every fib line, I exit out a portion of my trade, move up my stoplosses and let the rest run to lock in profits.
If you don't have or don't want to pay $30 to learn about absolute fibs, then I guess partial take profits at 10-30 pip increments (depending on the pair) would do the same thing. Please don't kick yourself and think, "I should've stayed in longer!" (I say that, but I do it all the time)
Over the long run, you're locking in profits better -- that's what I think.
Some Notes
As with any indicator, you will get false signals. Use whatever experience you have to decide whether or not to enter the trade. I never (or at least try not to) enter in blindly or use indicators as set rules. In essence, there are no set rules for a fluid market that's ever changing and adapting. Like Money Ma$ter (and yes, I read about the CC e-mail guy; sad...), I was a news trader in the past before the evilbrokers caught on and started putting me in loss, so I do use some fundamental basis to see which direction I should be trading. On pairs I am not familiar with, I use some technicals (i.e. daily highs lows, monthly highs lows, which fib price likes to hang around, etc) to see which direction I should be trading. Really, imho, it is best to not rely completely on an indicator, but to use your brain and all the experiences you've learned to place a confident trade. I think that's the best filter you can get out there. ^^
Whew - Best Wishes ><
Anyway, thanks, Money Ma$ter, for wishing me blessings. Man, do I need em! ^^ I know there are other people like me who are doing this not only for themselves, but their families and loved ones. Regardless of whether you're doing this as a hobby or to provide, I will continue to pray for all of you. There is a way for us to win, and we can conquer this beast called forex -- just trust and believe in God, and trust and believe in yourself. Not many people can read through thousands and thousands of posts, put in endless hours watching charts, watching Bloomberg, following economic indicators, and pouring in sweat and blood for this. We deserve to be wealthy and happy, and we are all blessed to live in a place that gives us that chance. Don't ever forget to appreciate yourself and the effort you placed -- even during loss.
Ok, so that's my (long) rant. lol Take care everyone!
Anthony
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I'm glad some people liked the indicator. ^^ Attached to this message are some buzzer wavs that I use to wake myself (and the neighbors) up in case of a signal. You should only use this if you are confident you could shake off a sleepy head within 2-3 minutes, effectively analyze the markets, place your trade, then go back to sleep.
Anyway, I forgot to say some things in my last post. This is long (I like to write.... a lot....), so I'll divide it into sections.
How the MT4 Indicator Works
I suggest adding the actual ema 18/28 to see how fat the tunnel is and entering on the signal only if the tunnel is thin or about to cross. I tried programming to make it draw the EMAs, but for some reason, I can't get it to work...
Also, if you scroll back too far, the arrows and dots get all whacky and get placed all over... I don't know how to fix that. Just close and reopen metatrader or recompile the indicator using MetaEditor.
So how the indicator works... The dots are pretty simple -- they just tell you when the ema18/28 crosses with no filter. Sometimes entering based solely on a tunnel cross works, sometimes it doesn't (NZD/JPY seem to work well on Tunnel crosses, but please use your own discretion). If you are entering in based solely on tunnel crosses all the time, then please re-read the Sidus system.
For the arrows, it happens when the WMAs cross both tunnel lines. This is the actual signal to get in -- please correct me if I'm wrong. The arrow is displayed on the close of the candle, thus you would get in on the next candle after the arrow. Many times I see the candle after the arrow retrace a little, allowing you a better entry point to breakeven with the spread. These arrows are filtered with RSI + CCI, which you can remove if you like.
How I Close & What I Do in Loss
I actually use both the Sidus tunnel and absolute fibs to close. If I get in on a signal and am in loss, I do one of two things:
1. If soon after my entry, the Sidus tunnel crosses (dot) or I get a full signal (arrow) both the other way (crap), I know I'm in for more losses, so I close or close & reverse.
2. If I don't see or hear a cross/signal, I just stick out any losses I have incurred. You have to give something to gain something, you know?
As for the absolute fibs, I know I should stay in until the next Sidus tunnel cross (the original method), but keeping in mind the lagging aspect, price action would have to retrace quite a lot OR it would have to channel for some time and then retrace before the tunnels will cross. Either way would cut into profits. Thus, I decided to use absolute fibs instead. At every fib line, I exit out a portion of my trade, move up my stoplosses and let the rest run to lock in profits.
If you don't have or don't want to pay $30 to learn about absolute fibs, then I guess partial take profits at 10-30 pip increments (depending on the pair) would do the same thing. Please don't kick yourself and think, "I should've stayed in longer!" (I say that, but I do it all the time)
Over the long run, you're locking in profits better -- that's what I think.Some Notes
As with any indicator, you will get false signals. Use whatever experience you have to decide whether or not to enter the trade. I never (or at least try not to) enter in blindly or use indicators as set rules. In essence, there are no set rules for a fluid market that's ever changing and adapting. Like Money Ma$ter (and yes, I read about the CC e-mail guy; sad...), I was a news trader in the past before the evilbrokers caught on and started putting me in loss, so I do use some fundamental basis to see which direction I should be trading. On pairs I am not familiar with, I use some technicals (i.e. daily highs lows, monthly highs lows, which fib price likes to hang around, etc) to see which direction I should be trading. Really, imho, it is best to not rely completely on an indicator, but to use your brain and all the experiences you've learned to place a confident trade. I think that's the best filter you can get out there. ^^
Whew - Best Wishes ><
Anyway, thanks, Money Ma$ter, for wishing me blessings. Man, do I need em! ^^ I know there are other people like me who are doing this not only for themselves, but their families and loved ones. Regardless of whether you're doing this as a hobby or to provide, I will continue to pray for all of you. There is a way for us to win, and we can conquer this beast called forex -- just trust and believe in God, and trust and believe in yourself. Not many people can read through thousands and thousands of posts, put in endless hours watching charts, watching Bloomberg, following economic indicators, and pouring in sweat and blood for this. We deserve to be wealthy and happy, and we are all blessed to live in a place that gives us that chance. Don't ever forget to appreciate yourself and the effort you placed -- even during loss.
Ok, so that's my (long) rant. lol Take care everyone!
Anthony
For all those using the EMACrossover indicator as well as the Sidus indicators I posted, and perhaps others that signal moving average crosses, the following procedure will allow you to scroll back and forth without whacking out the offending indicator and having it place signals all over your chart.
The reason seems to be Metatrader's multitasking limitations -- it's trying to download data while at the same time applying the rules of the indicator, making it confused and out of its mind.
So how to get around this that we may backtest any such MT4 indicator?
Short Version
- Remove the indicator
- CTRL-O -> Charts tab -> Change "Max bars in history" and "Max bars in chart" to 250000
- Turn off Autoscroll
- Scroll all the way back on chart allowing Metatrader to download data.
- Re-add indicator
Long Version (The Dummy's Guide lol)
- Remove the offending indicator: Hit CTRL-I, click on the indicator, and click Delete. Now click Close.
- Hit CTRL-O (that's O like in "Open") and go to the Charts tab
- Change "Max bars in history" to 250000.
- Change "Max bars in chart" to 250000.
- Hit OK
- Go to the Charts menu and turn off Autoscroll.
- On the chart, scroll ALL the way back, as far as the chart will go. This will make Metatrader download all the chart data. You will see how much data is being downloaded in your connection status.
- Scroll back and forth on the chart -- it should be smooth and quick, since Metatrader is no longer downloading data.
- You may now re-add the indicator: Insert (menu) -> Indicators -> Custom -> Name_of_My_Offending_Indicator.
- Voila! Now you can scroll back and forth for 2 years (on hourly chart) without your indicators going all whacky!
Note that you will need to repeat this procedure if you change timeframes and/or chart pairs.
I am now backtesting the Sidus method (or well, the mt4 indicator I posted that's based on the original Sidus). My conclusion so far (Jan-Mar 2004)? It's good - even after denting it with worst case scenarios and inefficiencies. It's so good, it's almost too good to be true... It worked two years ago and it's working now... I just... I feel like... like I'm gonna cry, man. ;__; ...finally... A tech method that works and keeps brokers from messing with me. I can survive without fundamentals... I'm so... so happy... You da man, Sidus. **sniff** You da maaaan!!! **cry**
Hot dang.
Anyway, after I finish backtesting, I'll post my spreadsheet. =D And yes yes, I know that past performance is no guarantee of future results; blah blah blah. But it worked, had worked, and is working, so get it while it's hot, right? ^^
Yes, I'm finally shutting up for now lol ><
L8rz,
Anthony
Anthony,
Thank you for this great contribution. I never use EA's, but I will certainly test my own
:!Thanks a lot.
- #1,416
- Sep 10, 2006 9:33am Sep 10, 2006 9:33am
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: live trader | 1,257 Posts
JOHN 3:16
