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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,101
  • Mar 29, 2017 7:57am Mar 29, 2017 7:57am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Perhaps you're over analyzing it. We've got a solid plan
I also also took the shot with yesterday close. so loaded for ST, SL above ext., profits as suggested by the ST map I always post. We will see what happens
  • #149,102
  • Mar 29, 2017 8:05am Mar 29, 2017 8:05am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I also also took the shot with yesterday close. so loaded for ST, SL above ext., profits as suggested by the ST map I always post. We will see what happens
Glad to hear it- good luck

I am also looking for the midterm exhaustion leg...

So a combination of ST and MT targets, That was my mistake last time....had no ST targets, only MT
  • #149,103
  • Mar 29, 2017 8:42am Mar 29, 2017 8:42am
Well, I didn't see this coming. I'm still in my Longs and will close them per my plan if we didn't close above .083x.

.073x still holding but not sure how NY will react when London goes home.

Just was looking at a higher exhaustion leg since nothing had changed up to that point.
  • #149,104
  • Mar 29, 2017 8:45am Mar 29, 2017 8:45am
Europe going home but day looks far from over.

Eyes on Dollar that is the key one in play on the FX board that is ticking above 100.xx intraday ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,105
  • Mar 29, 2017 9:25am Mar 29, 2017 9:25am
so far so good .... lets c will let 1 position to run till the low of 2017 and one to be closed @ 1.053x .... anyways good to hear about every1 who took the shot yesterday or day before (running & closed @profit ) ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,106
  • Edited 10:33am Mar 29, 2017 10:11am | Edited 10:33am
I'll breath easy on this one when/if dollar catches some bid. EU <1.0738 for week (M/Q) close. Hoping 1.076x keeps a lid on it. I like 760 for NY close today.
So far its a *Euro thing. Profit taking, etc. *Euro in neutral and with some French election tweet (tuite?) exposure.
GDP numbers in US might shake the tree.
  • #149,107
  • Mar 29, 2017 10:30am Mar 29, 2017 10:30am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Profit taking for the Quarter taking place right now in the Euro (via brexit noise as short term catalyst) rather than anything else. TA wise only losing 1.073x until the Q close will be the one to trigger a proper move by itself and will finally lock that pesky 1.087x. For now, nothing new and not much to see or do. We got a lot of data (Hikes, RMT in Sterling, Brexit Chapter 2, EZ strong recovery, boom US economic numbers and end of Trump honeymoon) in the last few weeks that will carry the board for the Spring and early Summer. We pretty...
i opted for caution.. it to me seems 0699 ish has decent st odds now.. after 0829 was broken, 0585 should be a norm retrace before 1.13.. i assumed 1087 or 11xx is still going to happen, but my timing didnt work out so far.. with decent odds still for 1087 11xx.. waiting for 0585 may be the best way to play it now.... so i could wait for now for 0699 or 0585.. either way i wouldn't touch it myself here with a fresh trade, long or short.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,108
  • Mar 29, 2017 11:21am Mar 29, 2017 11:21am
Looks like a May hike would catch a few napping. Not suggesting that is likely. I wonder if we'll be at familiar levels for that meeting though?
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  • #149,109
  • Mar 29, 2017 12:18pm Mar 29, 2017 12:18pm
Quoting sisse
--> Markets reacting more jittery than initial expected after the Art 50 trigger today especially with some of the aggressive comments coming from the UK Governments that seem will get worst now that May has a free ride and no internal political obligations left and Scotland triggered a new Independence Referendum side by side. --> Watch-out the European opening very closely as we are triggering a risk off in Europe and we may get a sharp short circuit in Sterling and then Euro as collateral. Smelling blood and rather long faces in the City. -->...
What a beautiful speech that man gave about Europe, Sisse, thanks for sharing.
  • #149,110
  • Mar 29, 2017 12:34pm Mar 29, 2017 12:34pm
https://www.facebook.com/15007484635...6375310622548/

and you thought you were having a bad day at the office.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,111
  • Mar 29, 2017 12:58pm Mar 29, 2017 12:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
https://www.facebook.com/15007484635...6375310622548/ and you thought you were having a bad day at the office.
Thank you now am 100% sure that my day is not only bad but worse than a lion attack in a circus . crawling back to my shell ...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #149,112
  • Mar 29, 2017 12:59pm Mar 29, 2017 12:59pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I reopen the questions after a few hours only... Has anything changed? @Earleone ...just for the sake of the argument and since last question wasn't triggered, we keep going for a bit longer. Now for the 9th time: Should we take shorts 1.079x -> 1.069x -> 1.054x ? or double up and trade 1.079xx -> 1.087x -> 1.098x? @goosebone Where are we rolling for the Q close? A. 1.083x B. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but above the 1.09x handle C....
D for me.

I have shorts in play from 1.079...nervously watching 1.073 then targeting 1.061
  • #149,113
  • Mar 29, 2017 3:03pm Mar 29, 2017 3:03pm
Irrelevant close across the Fx board. Nothing to see here

Quoting goosebone
Looks like a May hike would catch a few napping. Not suggesting that is likely. I wonder if we'll be at familiar levels for that meeting though? {image}
Let me introduce a more advanced FA concept.

Strictly rate differentials point of view. 1 further hike = 1.027x, 2 hikes = 0.980x and 3 hikes = 0.910x...

That's is ceteris pairibus (all remain constant except FED hikes) which is far from reality. It's almost impossible for ECB to stay static until 3 FED in time and second completely out of scope with current macro numbers in the EZ.

That's only mentioning the basic variables and leaving out I risk or changes in inflation and bonds....

Interesting concept to explore if you want to get into proper and more advanced FA concepts...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,114
  • Edited 5:43pm Mar 29, 2017 3:59pm | Edited 5:43pm
Quoting sisse
Irrelevant close across the Fx board. Nothing to see here {quote} Let me introduce a more advanced FA concept. Strictly rate differentials point of view. 1 further hike = 1.027x, 2 hikes = 0.980x and 3 hikes = 0.910x... That's is ceteris pairibus (all remain constant except FED hikes) which is far from reality. It's almost impossible for ECB to stay static until 3 FED in time and second completely out of scope with current macro numbers in the EZ. That's only mentioning the basic variables and leaving out I risk or changes in inflation and bonds.......
Hmmm.. I like it. Quantifying fundamental effect on price rather than the almost binary +++/-- buy/neutral/sell recipe. Only rate differentials? Or is there an equation for everything? (I think Al Einstein died searching for one of those)
Thanks for the tip. I'll try Google. They know everything.
  • #149,115
  • Mar 29, 2017 11:31pm Mar 29, 2017 11:31pm
In my opinion, what sisse is trying to say it's that there are things affecting EU that can guide to a positive speculation on Euro from now on. Also I think that we are rolling to the upside as it's the most intelligent bet for those holding positions from quater to quater, I will go to a 1.083 roll or even 1.090.

How the probabilities trend for an exaustion leg as we have a clearer view of how many rate hikes will be and we get more positive news from EZ?
  • #149,116
  • Mar 30, 2017 12:34am Mar 30, 2017 12:34am
Euro and Sterling a bit uncomfortable at these levels after latest round of numbers and Brexit noise. Both look set to lose the handle quickly before NY kill the Quarter with GDP numbers....until then....

Not much to see or do with same levels, same trades, same all,...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,117
  • Mar 30, 2017 1:59am Mar 30, 2017 1:59am
Quoting Paintomaker
In my opinion, what sisse is trying to say it's that there are things affecting EU that can guide to a positive speculation on Euro from now on. Also I think that we are rolling to the upside as it's the most intelligent bet for those holding positions from quater to quater, I will go to a 1.083 roll or even 1.090. How the probabilities trend for an exaustion leg as we have a clearer view of how many rate hikes will be and we get more positive news from EZ?
I dont know. I think you may be reading a little into it. Or at least i thought the point was to mention there is more FA than just hike probability charts and to point out one part of that. Or even to say it's not all about the FED. But I didn't see a directional call for EU in that post.
No change in outlook for the pair, outlook is sell.
I too had 830 for Q close until 797 was broken. Since then it's looking 730 to me. But i agree its definitely possible to see 830+. Bears are not out of the woods just yet. Maybe in a few hours they will be better off, we will see.
  • #149,118
  • Mar 30, 2017 2:18am Mar 30, 2017 2:18am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I dont know. I think you may be reading a little into it. Or at least i thought the point was to mention there is more FA than just hike probability charts and to point out one part of that. Or even to say it's not all about the FED. But I didn't see a directional call for EU in that post. No change in outlook for the pair, outlook is sell. I too had 830 for Q close until 797 was broken. Since then it's looking 730 to me. But i agree its definitely possible to see 830+. Bears are not out of the woods just yet. Maybe in a few hours they will...
730 is the handle now. A close below 710 for week will paint a strong bearish engulfing on weekly too. And for now as Sisse said , Not much to see or do with same levels, same trades, same all,...
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,119
  • Mar 30, 2017 2:43am Mar 30, 2017 2:43am
UBS FX sell-side research for /dx tech and macro - personally in agreement with this
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  • #149,120
  • Mar 30, 2017 2:54am Mar 30, 2017 2:54am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} 730 is the handle now. A close below 710 for week will paint a strong bearish engulfing on weekly too. And for now as Sisse said , Not much to see or do with same levels, same trades, same all,...
Yup that's the 719 (1.071x) I've been mentioning on the week. Still need to break 730.
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