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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,081
  • Mar 28, 2017 9:21pm Mar 28, 2017 9:21pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I think I went from IMARICH1 to IMABASTARD w sisse. Anyways, he ignored my post to either not embarrass me or just moving on to other things. I wanted to post a live trade. It's opposite of Outlook. But its apart of the retrace. I could be absolutley wrong but I want to know why. Why on how far this retrace is supposed to go? Why .0870, .090x or .093x. Why not .097x or .107x What should we be doing on this retrace? Play the retrace long? How far is a normal retrace and how far is a normal extension? I played the longs up to .082x and got stopped...
price can test these areas but extreme to 1.0970 price can any time move down before 1.0970 so looking for short is the safe way for me.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #149,082
  • Mar 28, 2017 9:42pm Mar 28, 2017 9:42pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I think I went from IMARICH1 to IMABASTARD w sisse. Anyways, he ignored my post to either not embarrass me or just moving on to other things. I wanted to post a live trade. It's opposite of Outlook. But its apart of the retrace. I could be absolutley wrong but I want to know why. Why on how far this retrace is supposed to go? Why .0870, .090x or .093x. Why not .097x or .107x What should we be doing on this retrace? Play the retrace long? How far is a normal retrace and how far is a normal extension? I played the longs up to .082x and got stopped...
Posting live is good man. Wether the trade is "ridiculous" or not (hindsight will fill in that blank for you and no one's opinion will matter then). Whenever i want to take an entry but have the idea "maybe I won't post this one live" its generally because I'm going against my own intuition and reasoning and following bad habits. You know how that ends. Anyway I use the thread like that. Ridiculous trade in the end or not, if I feel like not posting it, it's usually a bad idea. Just one way to use the public forum. Works for me to keep demons in check so thought I'd mention that.

As far as how far the retrace is "supposed to go" I'm quite sure I have no idea. But let me know if you find out.
I like this area from 830 to 980 for an about face. Big range. 1.0964 is in there. Gonna watch candles til I like the look of it. Not going long for now though personally. Those who have are living it up lately. I don't see anyone questioning @Budd Fox's earlier call anymore. Gator is aiming higher. I dont think anyone here thinks bastard or ridiculous seeing your call. Not me anyway. Looks like you are still cutting it up in small pieces which is great if it's working for you. RR is the thing to look at there right? You know what you are doing. Own it. Who gives a shit what anyone else thinks.
  • #149,083
  • Mar 29, 2017 1:07am Mar 29, 2017 1:07am
--> Markets reacting more jittery than initial expected after the Art 50 trigger today especially with some of the aggressive comments coming from the UK Governments that seem will get worst now that May has a free ride and no internal political obligations left and Scotland triggered a new Independence Referendum side by side.

--> Watch-out the European opening very closely as we are triggering a risk off in Europe and we may get a sharp short circuit in Sterling and then Euro as collateral. Smelling blood and rather long faces in the City.

--> An unconventional but complete and tradable flush down alerts triggered in the very short term at least until be pass the initial few sessions with Sharp direct hits to 1.221x and 1.068x respectively until we clear the very short term jitters that can become a snowball if things out of the control ....

Whatever the case, a very sad day for Europe and even sadder for the UK. History will judge and not with the best eyes in my opinion the selfishness, myopic arrogance and misleading that this process has been triggered. We may me witnessing the start of the end of the United Kingdom as such. ...

I think this Spanish politicians summarised it very clearly:

Inserted Video


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,084
  • Mar 29, 2017 1:37am Mar 29, 2017 1:37am
Hi Sisse, do you have any thoughts on the impact of Brexit on the UK housing market?

At the moment I'm rather torn between renting and buying in London. I think that anything short of a major devaluation and rate rises are likely to be fairly anaemic for the next five years or so, so my current view is that house prices are likely to level off at a high plateau in an uneasy stagnation, eventually leading to a real terms decline.

Is there anything which could upset this equilibrium?
  • #149,085
  • Mar 29, 2017 3:49am Mar 29, 2017 3:49am
Quoting Steamroller
Hi Sisse, do you have any thoughts on the impact of Brexit on the UK housing market? At the moment I'm rather torn between renting and buying in London. I think that anything short of a major devaluation and rate rises are likely to be fairly anaemic for the next five years or so, so my current view is that house prices are likely to level off at a high plateau in an uneasy stagnation, eventually leading to a real terms decline. Is there anything which could upset this equilibrium?
I know I'm not in the same league as Sisse but in my view the UK housing market is a complete fook up! And for the sake of our children I hope it suffers a massive crash
Maybe your question would be better posted in here http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/for...d-the-economy/
There is an interesting thread at the moment entitled 'UK Economy is a Confidence Trick'
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #149,086
  • Mar 29, 2017 6:08am Mar 29, 2017 6:08am
Very noisy morning in Europe with even more noise coming in the next few hours and days.

Expecting actions and strong reactions across all the political spectrum but more importantly we'll start seeing a lot of contingency plans triggered in the next 2 Quarters with lots of companies that depend on the EU market heading for the exit door as there is nothing to negotiate with the UK outside of the common market.

For short and mid term trading purposes, markets giving the go ahead for now in an orderly fashion. Not expecting at all a sharp knee jerk reaction but rather a smooth ride. Eyes on currencies in the next few sessions until we clear the Q close.

Not much to see or do now but same levels, same trades, same all ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,087
  • Mar 29, 2017 6:13am Mar 29, 2017 6:13am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} I know I'm not in the same league as Sisse but in my view the UK housing market is a complete fook up! And for the sake of our children I hope it suffers a massive crash Maybe your question would be better posted in here http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/for...d-the-economy/ There is an interesting thread at the moment entitled 'UK Economy is a Confidence Trick'
Seems that way so far - the banks' next movements are fairly crucial when looking at the London housing market, in my view. Bit worrying that luxury London property valuations are in their current state despite the £ being on its arse .. would have thought it'd be a fire sale for foreign investors looking to park cash, they're evidently not neglecting the Brexit risks
  • #149,088
  • Mar 29, 2017 6:20am Mar 29, 2017 6:20am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} I know I'm not in the same league as Sisse but in my view the UK housing market is a complete fook up! And for the sake of our children I hope it suffers a massive crash Maybe your question would be better posted in here http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/for...d-the-economy/ There is an interesting thread at the moment entitled 'UK Economy is a Confidence Trick'
Housing market (although fck up as it is) is not in play via Brexit. Not now maybe after Brexit but Commercial property specially in London and the big cities is for the next 2 years ...that is the one to track as it has one of the keys to open the flood gates to the real economy ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,089
  • Mar 29, 2017 6:32am Mar 29, 2017 6:32am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} @Earleone Very well done. 1.080x cleared....getting an entry on the way up or the way down...i think is clear at least in theory ... ...so just for the sake of the argument we keep going for a bit longer. Now for the 8th time: Now that we got a pullback to 1.080x, should we aim to load shorts lets say 1.085x -> 1.073x? or double up and trade 1.08x -> 1.093x? @goosebone We are we rolling for the Q close? A. 1.083x B. Impossible to...
I reopen the questions after a few hours only... Has anything changed?

@Earleone ...just for the sake of the argument and since last question wasn't triggered, we keep going for a bit longer. Now for the 9th time:

Should we take shorts 1.079x -> 1.069x -> 1.054x ? or double up and trade 1.079xx -> 1.087x -> 1.098x?

@goosebone Where are we rolling for the Q close?

A. 1.083x
B. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but above the 1.09x handle
C. 1.073x
D. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but below the 1.07x handle
E. No fck clue.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,090
  • Mar 29, 2017 6:39am Mar 29, 2017 6:39am
I thought I should post this question in this thread given how Sisse has posted some comments in the past on Brexit.
The U.K. Prime Minister has triggered article 50 but the GBP is buying. I would have thought the GBP would fall against the USD.
  • #149,091
  • Edited 7:00am Mar 29, 2017 6:46am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I reopen the questions after a few hours only... Has anything changed? @Earleone ...just for the sake of the argument and since last question wasn't triggered, we keep going for a bit longer. Now for the 9th time: Should we take shorts 1.079x -> 1.069x -> 1.054x ? or double up and trade 1.079xx -> 1.087x -> 1.098x? @goosebone Where are we rolling for the Q close? A. 1.083x B. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but above the 1.09x handle C....
Well if you are asking again I'll take the opportunity to change my answer from A. 1.083x to C. 1.073x. If 719 goes I'll wish I picked D.

Starting to fade in a short or two here stops at 845. Starting to look like perhaps we have set that high (good call @hoom). Price below 797 has changed my view of things. Not 100% sure what it means for equities to give "the go ahead" like you mentioned a while back but it seems like that's what we got now looking at euro indexes and us futures so waiting for NY to wake up to see if I'll add here or wait.
Edit: Moving quicker now. Not waiting. Loaded in. Avg entry 1.0777x TP1 @1.0640
  • #149,092
  • Mar 29, 2017 6:51am Mar 29, 2017 6:51am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I reopen the questions after a few hours only... Has anything changed? @Earleone ...just for the sake of the argument and since last question wasn't triggered, we keep going for a bit longer. Now for the 9th time: Should we take shorts 1.079x -> 1.069x -> 1.054x ? or double up and trade 1.079xx -> 1.087x -> 1.098x? @goosebone Where are we rolling for the Q close? A. 1.083x B. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but above the 1.09x handle C....
Scaling in shorts, shorts 1.079x -> 1.069x -> 1.054x ( I will say that we are moved over to sell the rally mode now also on intraday trading )
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,093
  • Mar 29, 2017 7:05am Mar 29, 2017 7:05am
Talking heads all over the place after the confirmation...not really much to see or analyse there from a market perspective. The damage is done with over 6 months to prepare for today.

Markets are just tracking now that the UK took the plunge T.May is suddenly start taking a lot pro Europe, blah blah blah ...as insanity can't last much longer neither markets will give more room anymore to the politicians in the UK...

sisse

Quoting goosebone
...euro indexes and us futures so waiting for NY to wake up
US has nothing to do or say about this today ...you are looking at the wrong place ....my 2 cents.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,094
  • Mar 29, 2017 7:24am Mar 29, 2017 7:24am
stopped out my eu longs from month+ back at 0775.. i probably will not be around if it tags 0699/0707.. but since it broke 0829, it did open 1.13xx.. i still plan on longing 0585x/0341 and close with a new LL. 0707 is a 1/4 mark.. 0699 a retrace 1/2 mark. months end tends to chop. so i may have just lost out already in given back 130 pips.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,095
  • Mar 29, 2017 7:41am Mar 29, 2017 7:41am
Quoting gatorinla
stopped out my eu longs from month+ back at 0775.. i probably will not be around if it tags 0699/0707.. but since it broke 0829, it did open 1.13xx.. i still plan on longing 0585x/0341 and close with a new LL. 0707 is a 1/4 mark.. 0699 a retrace 1/2 mark. months end tends to chop. so i may have just lost out already in given back 130 pips.
Profit taking for the Quarter taking place right now in the Euro (via brexit noise as short term catalyst) rather than anything else. TA wise only losing 1.073x until the Q close will be the one to trigger a proper move by itself and will finally lock that pesky 1.087x. For now, nothing new and not much to see or do.

We got a lot of data (Hikes, RMT in Sterling, Brexit Chapter 2, EZ strong recovery, boom US economic numbers and end of Trump honeymoon) in the last few weeks that will carry the board for the Spring and early Summer.

We pretty much have all that is needed both in the TA and FA side...we are ready to roll the dice in almost all major markets ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,096
  • Mar 29, 2017 7:59am Mar 29, 2017 7:59am
730 will let me know if I jumped the gun with this trade. I can see how waiting for that level would require less sweat than the entry I took.
@chester123 I know Pharmor got in, did you add/enter short yet? What level are you eyeing if not?
  • #149,097
  • Mar 29, 2017 8:06am Mar 29, 2017 8:06am
Quoting Pharm0r
Look at the familiarity between the first legs of the charts/quotes I posted.... Please forgive my trackball paint art.... (had I seen this correlation earlier obviously I'd have taken some profit and seen the possibility of buying! Especially considering the price was floating above short term flip zone. Thanks hoom for posting that reminder!) {image} {image}
Going back to this, I believe the purple piece is in action....with that being said, I've set a proper Tp1 this time (@hoom)
  • #149,098
  • Mar 29, 2017 8:08am Mar 29, 2017 8:08am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Going back to this, the purple piece is in action....with that being said, I've set a proper Tp1 this time (@hoom)
Purple is now my favorite color
  • #149,099
  • Edited 12:21pm Mar 29, 2017 9:37am | Edited 12:21pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1. Plot a basic indicator trigger (i think we chose an stochastic) and take the next crossover in oversold in D for W or a H4 for D 2. Plot a Fib and take short the next retrace or break as you wish, 3. Take the next basic single candle rejection price single in W or D 4. Use whatever trigger you are using or today close as trigger.... Compare the 4th triggers after the fact ...let us know what you found ... sisse

I actually happen to have such a chart that I have been keeping since 2014. My rules are

1) The swing has to originate when the stochs are in o/b o/s

2) But IF there was a previous swing that originated in o/b or o/s which failed and then the stocks turn again in the same direction before having made it to the opposite o/b or o/s zone, combined with a good candle signal (but they aren't quite in o/b or o/s) then I count it as another attempt because a lot of times you will get a couple failed attempts to turn near each other at the top or bottom

3) There has to be a recognizable candle signal that confirms it (like outside reversal bar, pinbar with correct close etc, morning star, evening star. Or morning or evening star - like signals. For me if you have two bullish bars on the daily at the bottom of a swing that takes out a bearish bar's open or vice versa, that is morning or evening star like enough. )
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  • #149,100
  • Mar 29, 2017 9:39am Mar 29, 2017 9:39am
Hi sisse,
If I guess your pick is E, that will be an insult. Hence, I believe you pick D for this iteration.

A. 1.083x
B. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but above the 1.09x handle
C. 1.073x
D. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but below the 1.07x handle
E. No fck clue.
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