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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #64,861
  • Mar 29, 2017 6:09am Mar 29, 2017 6:09am
Quoting FXClarity
{quote} Yep, that manoeuvre plays out time after time. Gap is now filled at 118.36. Hope this doesn't come across as being a smart ass but I've seen these plays a thousand times and am just hoping that sharing it with newer traders will alert them to something they'll find useful in their trading journey..
I'm watching this with interest and appreciate your opinion. But the price 118.36, that is a typo? Or am I missing something?
  • #64,862
  • Edited 6:46am Mar 29, 2017 6:26am | Edited 6:46am
Quoting Phil2015
{quote} I'm watching this with interest and appreciate your opinion. But the price 118.36, that is a typo? Or am I missing something?
Yes sorry, that was a typo..I had an alert trigger on my phone and typed in my post from there.

Really an add in opportunity to scalp out that last leg but I haven't added in as I've been building shorts in EUR NZD instead which has greater profit potential for my strat..The UJ for me at least is on the home straight and I've been unwinding shorts.

Added
I should also add that "asgcorp" was keeping an eagle eye on EUR /NZD with the same target as mine so I'm in good company for drop in that pair.
  • #64,863
  • Mar 29, 2017 6:35am Mar 29, 2017 6:35am
For what its worth...Every man and his dog is now looking at the target I gave back in January.

Its a major liquidity zone and sits under a MAJOR level (110)..Be on your guard because when that level hits - AN AVALANCHE OF ORDERS WILL HIT
  • #64,864
  • Mar 29, 2017 7:18am Mar 29, 2017 7:18am
Quoting FXClarity
For what its worth...Every man and his dog is now looking at the target I gave back in January. Its a major liquidity zone and sits under a MAJOR level (110)..Be on your guard because when that level hits - AN AVALANCHE OF ORDERS WILL HIT
You mean buy orders?
  • #64,865
  • Mar 29, 2017 7:47am Mar 29, 2017 7:47am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} You mean buy orders?
Surely both, as a buy order cannot be transacted without an opposite sell order?
  • #64,866
  • Mar 29, 2017 8:00am Mar 29, 2017 8:00am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} You mean buy orders?
The way I'm seeing it (and I may be completely wrong)...Is that at the very least there will be a lot short covering - so yes, to cover or close a short - the trader must 'buy'.

That coupled with every institutional and major Prop firm's key level alert triggering I'd expect a bounce in that zone.
  • #64,867
  • Mar 30, 2017 4:01am Mar 30, 2017 4:01am
Any one sees ability to hit 109? The rolldown on the top shows weakness and strong downside magnitude.
I'm not shure about 109.5 can be an endpoint... An avalanche of orders behind 110 will be hard to stop at some certain level.
Forcemeat can not be unrolled back...
  • #64,868
  • Mar 30, 2017 4:19am Mar 30, 2017 4:19am
Traders with a short bias will be scaling in sell orders off this GAP play with tight stops..

Markets often whip around these GAP zones..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #64,869
  • Mar 30, 2017 4:23am Mar 30, 2017 4:23am
closed my 114.45 short for a fist full of pips.

If I think the USD will rise I will go long.
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #64,870
  • Mar 30, 2017 4:33am Mar 30, 2017 4:33am
Quoting RondaRousey
closed my 114.45 short for a fist full of pips. If I think the USD will rise I will go long.
Nice going..A good run for you.

I'm holding positions dating back to early January but for me there is only 100 or so pips left in it and the negative swap is mounting up.

I believe 110 is begging to be tested. and my target is 20 or so pips below that level.

My main focus now sits in EUR NZD shorts (same set up as the USD JPY )
  • #64,871
  • Mar 30, 2017 4:49am Mar 30, 2017 4:49am
The battleground...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #64,872
  • Mar 30, 2017 5:03am Mar 30, 2017 5:03am
Off topic

...And if you don't like what you see with the pair you are looking at...take your business elsewhere.

Here is the EUR / NZD Trade I've referenced a few times..My initial entry on this went offside as the pair accelerated a further launch upwards but the trade remains good and offered further entry opportunities for a several hundred pip run and a very smooth ride down yesterday where profits can be scaled out..(same trade set up as the USD JPY back in January)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #64,873
  • Edited 5:21am Mar 30, 2017 5:08am | Edited 5:21am
UBS FX sell-side research on the $ below. Yields currently looking very heavy and of course, with $/jpy's dependence on the UST-JGB 10Y spread (driven almost exclusively by US10Y real yields thanks to BoJ's YCC), this is very significant for the pair. Big level at 110 and expect heavy buying here; if the level doesn't hold, expect a blood bath. $CS targeting a steady move down to 107, rather than a strong capitulation leg which is characteristic of USDJPY.

Buy dips from sub-110 for l/t hold; as UBS says, I see this as a short squeeze of fixed income bears.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #64,874
  • Mar 30, 2017 6:12am Mar 30, 2017 6:12am
Quoting FXClarity
The battleground... {image}
I think that once that range ends the pair will continue falling. We need a breakout below 110.10 for a confirmation.
  • #64,875
  • Mar 30, 2017 6:18am Mar 30, 2017 6:18am
see if this fades in new quarter http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...st-record-pace
  • #64,876
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:00am Mar 30, 2017 7:00am
I can see 112.4xx before 110. This is what I'm aiming for from 110.298. SL currently set at 111, I'll adjust this if we break todays high.
Focus.
  • #64,877
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:10am Mar 30, 2017 7:10am
Quoting Marco-Kanto
I can see 112.4xx before 110. This is what I'm aiming for from 110.298. SL currently set at 111, I'll adjust this if we break todays high.
are you long or short? never mind, I guess you are long
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #64,878
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:15am Mar 30, 2017 7:15am
Quoting pips29
{quote} are you long or short? never mind, I guess you are long
Yes, sorry. Long from 110.298.
Focus.
  • #64,879
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:25am Mar 30, 2017 7:25am
Quoting Marco-Kanto
{quote} Yes, sorry. Long from 110.298.

I'm long from 110.5 target of 112.38.

I didn't chose those levels for any reason, my system did. Personally, I think I'm going to get stopped out but then.... I am usually wrong.

Except of course this time, because I just made the claim, lol.
  • #64,880
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:27am Mar 30, 2017 7:27am
Quoting Phil2015
{quote} I'm long from 110.5 target of 112.38. I didn't chose those levels for any reason, my system did. Personally, I think I'm going to get stopped out but then I am usually wrong. Except of course this time, because I just said so...
Where are your stops?
Focus.
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