Finding the right expert...

3rd gen ma. adjustable and expert.

While we're looking at ma crosses
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=233301

All I really need is the Dragon expert, that I already bought, and something to filter out dangerous days when there can be a serious spike in the wrong direction.
Maybe just a lwma 25 ma is enough.
So here we go, more testing
trend with lwma 25 ma on the day..
set up right after New York closes for 1 hour only.
It is a Martingale...
Well that's a good start. the indi said up and the market went down but the Dragon had a small profit.

So that's the idea..
Not going to post every segment...

On second thought maybe day is the wrong time frame to look for the trend for the one hour the expert will be running.
Maybe the 1h chart is where the trend can be found.
that means testing one day at a time. Okay here we go.

Right out of the gate, the second test...
huge draw down... over $300 and Martingale all the way up to higher levels.
Hmmm. Maybe this isn't going to work either.
Maybe instead of 1 hour trend. 4hr..

tried this one on a demo account

Looks like one of those that kills it in the tester and even a demo but nose dives live....
Market conditions and brokers even ECN can't keep up with tiny moves Which doesn't allow profits in very small moves. Even if the algorithm is perfect. Life isn't.
But I'll check it out. thanks.

Looking to use 10 lwma on the 4hr to identify buying or selling.
Set the Dragon for the one hour right after NY closes.
Looking very good. After a month of testing each day separately about 250 pips...
No catastrophes, no terrible drawdowns.
I'll keep testing this one.
ECN no problem with spread.
But dealing desk has huge spread at this time.

That really slow time right after NY closes end of day... seems to be working out nicely over 9 months of testing one day at a time.
Only 3 significant drawdowns... $100 but the gain was $60 each time. It's just a matter of having a strong enough stomach to ride them out.
So far no crashing. If I have to do this day by day since 2012 I'll do it. This time of day is the slowest there is. The dragon is set for 8 pips with 10 pip steps.
If I have to go down to 5 pips I can do that.. Just to make sure the trades close without having to travel very far. So far 8 is fine. Maybe the next tiome I hit a big drawdown I'll run back over it set for 5 instead of 8.

Watching the trades play out in the tester is really important. I need to get "desensitized" when there are drawdowns.
Watching them play out helps.
I have been trading .01 because when I do set up live I use a micro to minimize losses.
But in order to profit seriously I would have to use at least .1...
So I'll start using .1 in the tester to help with getting used to seeing drawdowns based on .1
Mostly the trades are quick, within the hour. It's only 8 pips.
But when they go out right away they can drag on for 6 or 7 hours. Opening levels of Martingale.
the search for 8 pips becomes a drawdown of 80 or 90 pips. But robots algorithm is set to make the pain worth the while.
When the trades are resolved it is not just for the 8 pips, the profit is increased with each level of Martingale. So it's with mixed emotions I see the levels opening up. In the end it will be a larger gain. For 2 levels it is around 30 pips gain, for 3 levels it can get to 60...

This is typical.. Within the specified hour 1 or 2 trades opened and closed. Trading based on the trend in the 4hr chart.

Then this is what happens when Martingale recovery kicks in...
this only took 3 hours to resolve, it can go longer... 7 hours or more.
About $50 drawdown here.. about $25 profit instead of $8 for a quick open and close.

This is rare for that time of day.. But in that one hour there was a lot of activity and volatility. Drawdown $120 at one point.
But total gain for the 1 hour $162. I need to watch how the trades play out.

Something like this would be unbearable. Knowing how Martingale can crash an account now matter how much equity is in it.
Over $1000 drawdown... closed it brought in $229
Only 4 hours to resolve so at least that was good.
Up to 7 levels... Really have to have a strong stomach for this.
.1 for $5000... 25% drawdown.

Got caught in this
Pretty innocuous looking on the 4hr...

It's going to be quite a while before I'll be able to trade more than a $500 micro at .01. Not only do I not have the money to go for $5000 .1, but I don't have the emotional control. Sorry to say. I panic.
I really don't have the $500 either but somehow the account is open.
On a micro riding this out meant about $50 drawdown at most, with $14 final profit. i can live with that.
On a mini it would mean $500 drawdown...
Not ready for that. Plus it took 5 hours... A lot can happen to my mind in 5 hours.
Think I'll leave the tester at $5000, .1 just so the drawdown on the micro doesn't seem so bad.

Not to confuse things any more than they already are. I want to look at the other old time favorite.. Fishing ea.
the dragon opens trades in the direct of the move and Fishing opens counter to the move.
Let me see Fishing using the 10 lwma on the 4 hr for trend. How to set it.

money management : if you can win 2 out of 10 trades with a Risk/Reward ratio of 2 then u make 11%