EUR/USD Weekly Price Map
- #1,099,223
- Mar 26, 2017 1:45am Mar 26, 2017 1:45am
- | Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Complicated Obsessive-Compulsive | 746 Posts
- #1,099,224
- Mar 26, 2017 2:03am Mar 26, 2017 2:03am
EUR/USD Weekly Price Map {image}
- #1,099,225
- Edited 4:01am Mar 26, 2017 3:06am | Edited 4:01am
- Joined Feb 2017 | Status: pippin' | 1,139 Posts
{quote} Utelizing PA, I would disagree that "Smart money puts their orders where your Stops are." The 3/22/17 Daily bar was a pin off a clear PPZ. It is also a second test of the 50% retracement of the move from 11/9/16 to 1/3/17. the Does that mean it will move down? Absolutely not. If you did a sell on the opening of the 3/23/17 bar with a stop above the 3/22/17 pin (which is the trade my wife is in), your statement implies the only "smart" trade is northbound near the 1.084 area. I do not believe the trade she is in is a huge probability of success,...
The "Smart Money puts their orders where your Stops are" is a little bit simplified and can be missunderstood because it implies there is something cheesy going on, but that's not true.
Institutional Traders (Banks, Hedgefunds), buy and sell at specific price levels and add or reduce risk at specific price levels.
These price levels just happen to be where most people put their stops, mostly.
That's the meaning of "put your order where their stops are".
No science, nothing cheesy.
@tstivers
"I mean I understand engulfing candles, pin-bars, reading candles to figure out whether bulls or bears have control over the market at a given time. But I find it limited in its ability to help me trade. Engulfing candles quickly turn around and prove false. Pin bars pretty reliably lie to me. And figuring out whether bulls or bears have control can only really be done after you have a few candles. And at that point the movement is already over and any room for profit seems to have already passed. so what am I missing"
You miss understanding what Foreign Exchange markets are. You miss to read the candles and their surrounding scenario.
You miss to read and undertand some really good traders posts on this form and you miss to think about it instead of arguing all the time.
Some of us do this for many many many years on multiple different levels, retail trading, brokerage, funds, banks.... you find all sorts of people here with all sorts of backgrounds and all sorts of trading styles. Instead of arguing about Fibs all the time and coming up with "but it doesnt work it's wrong", you should just read, learn, and look at the charts (higher timeframes!!).
You miss experience and patience.
Next time you want to take a trade, DON't.
Draw a line where you would have put your Stop for this order.
Lean back and watch.
Learn...
tough love honey, tough love
now to the guys who argue about "don't need MACD to see divergence it's in the price"
You are right! You see divergence in the naked chart.
And now please surround yourself with 56 charts on 6 screens and show me correlating Divergence.
You have 5 seconds!
The MACD or whatever you prefer helps to see it", that is all it does. I never said you need it for your trading. In fact I don't trade divergences, but I like to know when I am in one, I like to know where I am at all times. And for technical analysis, spotting correlating Divergences is a bread and butter thing, it's part of the work.
It's like "I want to put a nail in the wall. I can do this with my flat hand, eventualy. But, if I have a hammer, why not use it?"
you are not expected to understand this
- #1,099,228
- Mar 26, 2017 5:03am Mar 26, 2017 5:03am
- Joined Feb 2017 | Status: pippin' | 1,139 Posts
you are not expected to understand this
- #1,099,232
- Edited 7:34am Mar 26, 2017 7:22am | Edited 7:34am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 7,803 Posts
- #1,099,233
- Mar 26, 2017 7:30am Mar 26, 2017 7:30am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,311 Posts
Drawdown is more important than Account Size !
- #1,099,236
- Edited 8:02am Mar 26, 2017 7:44am | Edited 8:02am
- Joined Feb 2017 | Status: pippin' | 1,139 Posts
{quote} I mean this March and April Teek. I think EU still will rise to 1.0870 area first then collapse to support 1.0068 Next week forecast, what do you say?
My shortterm analysis for next week is already posted (yesterday)
Here you go -> https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...69#post9708369
I might add, looking at the current market sentiment, 84% of traders are positioned short. (https://www.fxblue.com/connect/#sentiment)
This is pretty ridiculous and there are killer amounts of Stops (and large scale buy orders) up there (above the yellow line on my charts).
So we could see a run up north before it goes into correction down south.
In sentiment situations like these, I do NOT tend to go with the crowd as from experience this is usualy a bad idea.
I stay out and wait and see before I start dipping my toe into the water for longer term trades.
Intraday I have my eyes on it but I be very careful. For my intraday trading there are more attractive markets these days and there is good reason why I flagged this market "red".
The market's job is to fill orders, and lookin at the sentiment, well.... let's just say my "Retailers" advice often differs from what I give out to non-retailers. And that is more than I can say here
you are not expected to understand this
- #1,099,238
- Mar 26, 2017 8:12am Mar 26, 2017 8:12am
- Joined Feb 2017 | Status: pippin' | 1,139 Posts
{quote} excellent post. @tstivers candle sticks: there is more to it than just reading single candles as teek mentioned in a very precise format and straight to the point. you have to do some more research and see how it plays out in live situation. For those who's been keep asking me about momentum and show me the chart: momentum indicator? there is no such thing. i use macd for momentum reading in the background (there are people who use volume instead, but to me it's all same shit) and, to me, it does a very good job. you do your own digging...
the only reason why I still do the charts thing in this forum (which is a tiny fraction of what the real thing looks like) is because just lately some people messaged me to say "thank you" because they "profit from your analysis".
I am under the very strong impression that most people in this forum (not talking FF in general, just this little EUR/USD gem here) are here because they put a lot of time and energy into "wanting to proof other people wrong", and I am getting a little bit tired of discussing very basic things that every trader should learn within their first three weeks of looking at charts.
Trading is not about being right. I do not dare to be right, in fact I don't care (I never do a forecast in a public forum)
I do what I do here because of boredom, and I continue to do it because it does actualy help a few people out there, these who are open minded and eager to learn will always profit and succeed. These who are stubborn and go the "you are wrong" route will not.
It's that easy. Trading is a mindest thing. Every monkey can learn the technical side...
Also I might add: I love it with passion. It's my thing. That's it
you are not expected to understand this
- #1,099,239
- Mar 26, 2017 8:28am Mar 26, 2017 8:28am
{quote} I mean this March and April Teek. I think EU still will rise to 1.0870 area first then collapse to support 1.0068 Next week forecast, what do you say?
Collapse you say? With all these breaks clearly visible, I am afraid 1.05 may not be seen anytime soon sorry..me and my household are looking for more highs (LongTerm) a retrace to 1.05 at most is expected but won't be traded.. We only buy..
Talkative
- #1,099,240
- Mar 26, 2017 8:32am Mar 26, 2017 8:32am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Sniper | 14,770 Posts
{quote} they put a lot of time and energy into "wanting to proof other people wrong", and I am getting a little bit tired of discussing very basic things that every trader should learn within their first three weeks of looking at charts.
