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  • #1,099,181
  • Mar 25, 2017 2:48pm Mar 25, 2017 2:48pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} that's your opinion. not really interested posting charts again. besides, don't we have enough charts anyway? they all same thing. only difference is how you read and when to pull the trigger. only prediction i would rely on is where momentum points. thats all.
again the momentum indicator... considering momentum is not directly applicable, i will put it like this. if price is dropping 100 pips quickly... the 'momentum' for most seems quite strong going down... it only takes one level to completely reverse that move quickly... where did all the so called momentum go? how could one tell that momentum has died so quickly... they can't. therefore this 'momentum' word being thrown around everywhere seems complete nonsense, unless i am missing something...
yes macd etc can be used to see where there are divergences etc but this has nothing to do with momentum...

as for news trading... it is of course my opinion that it is gambling... but id like to see some explanation on how it is not gamble, and in the current circumstances, considering the contradiction between 'there are too many charts' and 'post a chart to back up your theory' if you aren't going to explain what you mean by buy the dips then whats the point in saying it?
  • #1,099,182
  • Mar 25, 2017 2:48pm Mar 25, 2017 2:48pm
I would like to note one thing.

When I entered the trade (sell) on 3/23/17 it was based on a chart with a 00:00 EST closing. On this chart the 3/22/17 bar was a clear pin off the PPZ.

When I opened a practice account on the GMT+3 server (17:00 EST closing), the bar on 3/22/17 does not look like a very good pin bar to me. This could be an example of GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out). We are trading with the Mob in essence. The mob is both powerful and fickle. I would argue, if you are not using the same data as the mob is using, you will probably have bad technical data to use.

We will see how my trade works out.
Girl-In-Pigtails
  • #1,099,183
  • Mar 25, 2017 2:48pm Mar 25, 2017 2:48pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} ??? dude. i'm not a fortune teller. have no clue how deep it will dip down, if any. i will pickup what i can, if any setups presents combine with news is how i trade. i look at where they bought and sold. works way better than fibs, but that's just me. /r

The reason behind this is institutional trading.
Fibonacci patterns are very precise. Many retail traders use these patterns. In technical anaysis of Stocks markets, Mr. Gartleys book is one of the first books you will read. And many traders apply these patterns to the Forex markets. The patterns themselfes are very accurate, but peoples Stops are not.
So, if I am a large institutional trader with the ability to move the market with really large orders, then for sure I have my technical analysts measure and line out the exact same patterns. The numbers are the same, the analysis is the same, the resulting patterns are the same.
So now as an institutional trader I know where retailers orders are, and I know where they put their Stops for these orders. The pattern is there, there orders are at this level, most Stops are at this level. That's not rocketscience, that's not even "high math" or being smart. That's "I draw the fibs and see what you see".
All I need to do now as an institutional "big player" with the capability to move the market is: wait for the pattern to fill.
Now this happens:
- Pattern got filled
- Market begins to dip because Sell orders got filled (in this case we assume it's a bearish pattern)
- I (institutional trader) push large Buy orders into the market now, so large in size and volume that the market actualy turns around and pulls up again
- People panic and close their Shorts. Less Sell preasure, market moves up more.
- Stops get killed, Short orders fall out of the market, market pulls up more.
- Now I close my Buy orders
- Market drops
- Retailers go apeshit on the forums because "got stopped by one pip again"
- Institutional trader orders prostitutes and new car

And that is what happens.
And it's not even "unfair" or shit like that. It's commons sense.
He who has the money to make the price, wins. There is only one thing the big guys don't do: lose.
But "oh, Fibs don't work"... eh?
Of course they work. Your Stops and Orders don't work because you refuse to be smart and keep trading "the lines/patterns" instead of the market.
And that's the truth.

PS: I am not an institutional trader, this was just an example of reality.
Seriously you see it every day all day.

(same truth for Pivots. use them, but not for your Stops)
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,099,184
  • Mar 25, 2017 2:52pm Mar 25, 2017 2:52pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} again the momentum indicator... considering momentum is not directly applicable, i will put it like this. if price is dropping 100 pips quickly... the 'momentum' for most seems quite strong going down... it only takes one level to completely reverse that move quickly... where did all the so called momentum go? how could one tell that momentum has died so quickly... they can't. therefore this 'momentum' word being thrown around everywhere seems complete nonsense, unless i am missing something... yes macd etc can be used to see where there...
look harder.
  • #1,099,185
  • Mar 25, 2017 2:53pm Mar 25, 2017 2:53pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} look harder.
nice explanation... probably because you don't have another one...
ive asked you, and others before to give me something showing momentum.... i have nothing, ever.

people asked me about fibs and levels i have etc... i posted some charts with how they work... BEFORE the fact...

agree it is a hard one as momentum is an in the moment thing, but show me some momentum on MACD, im sure it would be insightful.

i am open minded, if it is shown to me and i think it shall be advantageous to me, then i shall see if i can incorporate it into my trading
  • #1,099,186
  • Mar 25, 2017 2:56pm Mar 25, 2017 2:56pm
Quoting Teek
{quote} The reason behind this is institutional trading. Fibonacci patterns are very precise. Many retail traders use these patterns. In technical anaysis of Stocks markets, Mr. Gartleys book is one of the first books you will read. And many traders apply these patterns to the Forex markets. The patterns themselfes are very accurate, but peoples Stops are not. So, if I am a large institutional trader with the ability to move the market with really large orders, then for sure I have my technical analysts measure and line out the exact same patterns....
yes, i agree.
again. it is for me. i just find it too complex to apply in my trading.
others might find it amazingly beautiful thing.
been there and done that.
just not for me.
that's all.
  • #1,099,187
  • Mar 25, 2017 2:58pm Mar 25, 2017 2:58pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} nice explanation... probably because you don't have another one... ive asked you, and others before to give me something showing momentum.... i have nothing, ever. people asked me about fibs and levels i have etc... i posted some charts with how they work... BEFORE the fact... agree it is a hard one as momentum is an in the moment thing, but show me some momentum on MACD, im sure it would be insightful. i am open minded, if it is shown to me and i think it shall be advantageous to me, then i shall see if i can incorporate it into my trading...
i give up.
you win.
yes i got nothing.
have a nice life.
/r
  • #1,099,188
  • Mar 25, 2017 2:59pm Mar 25, 2017 2:59pm
Quoting Teek
{quote} The reason behind this is institutional trading. Fibonacci patterns are very precise. Many retail traders use these patterns. In technical anaysis of Stocks markets, Mr. Gartleys book is one of the first books you will read. And many traders apply these patterns to the Forex markets. The patterns themselfes are very accurate, but peoples Stops are not. So, if I am a large institutional trader with the ability to move the market with really large orders, then for sure I have my technical analysts measure and line out the exact same patterns....
I think the biggest problem with retail traders is they try to optimize their stops too much. They think, why put a 20 pip stop and base my MM off that when I could do a 10 pip stop and each positive pip is worth double.

Institutions are not concerned with 3%, 4%, 5%, or 10% profit per day, they are looking at fractions of a percent. Greed leaves the equation in lieu of long term stable profits. Furthermore, institutional traders rarely hit their "stop" as it is meant to protect capital. They close winning and losing trades based on current information well before they are "stopped out."
Que
  • #1,099,189
  • Mar 25, 2017 2:59pm Mar 25, 2017 2:59pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} nice explanation... probably because you don't have another one... ive asked you, and others before to give me something showing momentum.... i have nothing, ever. people asked me about fibs and levels i have etc... i posted some charts with how they work... BEFORE the fact... agree it is a hard one as momentum is an in the moment thing, but show me some momentum on MACD, im sure it would be insightful. i am open minded, if it is shown to me and i think it shall be advantageous to me, then i shall see if i can incorporate it into my trading...
Divergence on MACD, or RSI, or CSI, or or or...
Divergence = "market loses momentum in it's actual direction"
Hope that helps

(does not work on 1 Minute charts in Forex markets)
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,099,190
  • Mar 25, 2017 3:00pm Mar 25, 2017 3:00pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} i give up. you win. yes i got nothing. have a nice life. /r
i am just asking you to show me... i didnt say you have nothing... and im not saying your trading is wrong... i just would have thought you could explain something like that if you use it so often...
  • #1,099,191
  • Mar 25, 2017 3:03pm Mar 25, 2017 3:03pm
Quoting Teek
{quote} Divergence on MACD, or RSI, or CSI, or or or... Divergence = "market loses momentum in it's actual direction" Hope that helps (does not work on 1 Minute charts in Forex markets)
perhaps getting somewhere, now... where did that definition come from?
  • #1,099,192
  • Mar 25, 2017 3:09pm Mar 25, 2017 3:09pm
ehm, Don, that's very common trading knowledge
MACD was instroduced 1979 by Gerard Appel.
"Moving Average Convergence Divergence" Indicator.
You can use an RSI or CSI or MACD, they are all the same. To spot Divergences and hidden Divergences, that indicate the market is losing momentum.
It is NOT a "Signal", just an indication.
Works exceptionaly well on higher timeframes and spotting Divergences and hidden Divergences should definatly be in your toolbox.
I prefer the MACD for this because of it's histogram, the MA I do not care for. Sometimes I use an RSI for it, but I do like the MACD better. Personal preference.

My latest analysis is a good ecample for it.
I see a pattern that should technicly fill.
BUT, on the H4 I see this divergence (and other Divergences on corretalting markets), so I know this H4 uptrend is losing momentum. When exactly it stops and turns around I do not know. Divergences can build up for quite a while (look at the Dax). But I know it is getting weaker and I see the resistences and am backed by the EMA 200.
That created my short bias and made me move away from that pattern.
That's how you use these indicators in your analysis.
In my trading I do now wait for a turnaround. If it comes? When it comes? The price will tell me. Not the indicator, it just indicated it
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,099,193
  • Mar 25, 2017 3:17pm Mar 25, 2017 3:17pm
Quoting Teek
ehm, Don, that's very common trading knowledge MACD was instroduced 1979 by Gerard Appel. "Moving Average Convergence Divergence" Indicator. You can use an RSI or CSI or MACD, they are all the same. To spot Divergences and hidden Divergences, that indicate the market is losing momentum. It is NOT a "Signal", just an indication. Works exceptionaly well on higher timeframes and spotting Divergences and hidden Divergences should definatly be in your toolbox. I prefer the MACD for this because of it's histogram, he MA I do not care for. Sometimes I...
i use macd, as already stated... thanks for the insight... my point is momentum in the moment whether it be h4 or m1 (yes divergences are usable in m1)... and as MACD and the rest... lag... how would you tell the strength of the momentum.. you can't... its like the strength of the move... no body knows it for sure right?

what im really getting at is you think that h4 uptrend is losing the so called momentum... if it breaks up then what? im not playing it long term that way but... what happens to momentum?
  • #1,099,194
  • Mar 25, 2017 3:22pm Mar 25, 2017 3:22pm
Wouldn't, theoretically, divergence and momentum indicators be identifiable in the price? I mean (p.s I'm a moron) as these indicators are BASED on price, why not just skip the indicator altogether?

Just a thought.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #1,099,195
  • Mar 25, 2017 3:23pm Mar 25, 2017 3:23pm
Quoting Connors
{quote} Heyyy, I tought I posted this.. Great work Teek! It took me several years to realise that.
me to. 12 years to be precise

@Don: "strength of the momentum"
- there is no such indicator and you don't need one
- you are looking at the best indicator ever: the damn candles! It's all in the candles, the price.
Don't trade indicators. Use them for your analysis, not for trading signals from them. If you are trading indicator signals instead of the actual market, you are lost.
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,099,196
  • Edited Mar 26, 2017 3:34am Mar 25, 2017 3:25pm | Edited Mar 26, 2017 3:34am
See the Divergence in your chart Don? I do

Good night, funny people.
Have a good one

(edit: he deleted the chart)
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,099,197
  • Mar 25, 2017 3:27pm Mar 25, 2017 3:27pm
Quoting Teek
{quote} me to. 12 years to be precise @Don: "strength of the momentum" - there is no such indicator and you don't need one - you are looking at the best indicator ever: the damn candles! It's all in the candles, the price. Don't trade indicators. Use them for your analysis, not for trading signals from them. If you are trading indicator signals instead of the actual market, you are lost.
i thought that before... its all in the price... but then i figured there are other things better than waiting for PA to make a pattern to trade... such as dononacci96's

because waiting can reduce RR significantly... and on the flip side save you some... its free to wait as the saying goes... i prefer to enter when i get my level rather than 50 pips after my level was touched
  • #1,099,198
  • Mar 25, 2017 3:49pm Mar 25, 2017 3:49pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} were you buying or selling last week?
that was the joke part as i done mistake there and face problem of fear which is not good for trading.i lose faith in my way of trading by reading lots of vies here
that's the mistake i done as per me as here in market everyone is right its the way how u see it.only thing which make u win is fearless and greed less trading and confidence u get in ur trading style which u only gain by lots of yere of analysing ur trading style.

basically my view is very much clear that market is of selling and it will fall till 1.05490 but as i read a post i get confuse by reading views i keep on switching my positions which lead me in to loss and market not gone anywhere in this two days (this is the most funny part)
IF U DONT KNOW DOES NOT MEAN IT DOES NOT EXIST
  • #1,099,199
  • Mar 25, 2017 3:53pm Mar 25, 2017 3:53pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} i thought that before... its all in the price... but then i figured there are other things better than waiting for PA to make a pattern to trade... such as dononacci96's because waiting can reduce RR significantly... and on the flip side save you some... its free to wait as the saying goes... i prefer to enter when i get my level rather than 50 pips after my level was touched
Honestly, Don96, I believe you to be on the upper hand from other traders. You are already on the right track because if you're already trading in the m1, m5 time frames, if you analyze it hard enough and question every single move, you will be on the right track to determining a better top/bottom to position a trade.

It is my opinion that if one is able to read and master the lower time frames - m1,m5,m15. They are have a lot easier time reading the bigger moves. People think it is noise but not me

But trading in the subterranean time frames requires intense focus and time analyzing the charts.
  • #1,099,200
  • Mar 25, 2017 3:57pm Mar 25, 2017 3:57pm
Quoting fasttrade1
{quote} that was the joke part as i done mistake there and face problem of fear which is not good for trading.i lose faith in my way of trading by reading lots of vies here that's the mistake i done as per me as here in market everyone is right its the way how u see it.only thing which make u win is fearless and greed less trading and confidence u get in ur trading style which u only gain by lots of yere of analysing ur trading style. basically my view is very much clear that market is of selling and it will fall till 1.05490 but as i read...
well if you are targeting 1.05xxx then you need to compare your analysis to people who are targetting similar/opposites... most of the post here is junk (in terms of people telling you what to do or where they have traded after the fact) the point is don't read here and change your mind... there are more people here losing than winning...
also most people are trading on small timeframes with large timeframe targets and small timeframe stops... also usually resulting in losses... finally people will switch their positions very frequently on small timeframes... it will be impossible to follow people because of this... and as most are losing the ultimatum is, dont follow others on here... i scroll past almost every post on here apart from those who post before something happens/with a stop/entry etc etc... ive listed them before. ]

if this makes sense then good job, if not then just scroll past this post as junk

chow adios i'm done
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