Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion

USD/JPY Discussion

#64,801
Mar 24, 2017 8:53am Mar 24, 2017 8:53am

arigoldman
| Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Trader | 915 Posts

USD/JPY marks a week of depreciation as the pair went from 113 to below 111. Lowest low was made yesterday at 110.60, price is now slightly recovered trading at 111.23. I'm expecting a move up for the next week.

#64,802
Mar 24, 2017 11:38am Mar 24, 2017 11:38am

freez2ryme
| Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Trader | 29 Posts

Dre has been a lot of volatility in USDJPY in d last few minutes, anybody have idea y?

#64,803
Mar 24, 2017 11:43am Mar 24, 2017 11:43am

KovanTrader
| Joined Feb 2017 | Status: Trader | 266 Posts

Quoting freez2ryme

Disliked

Dre has been a lot of volatility in USDJPY in d last few minutes, anybody have idea y?

Ignored

111 is a psychological level (as per all round numbers). Bulls are desperately trying to defend it.

#64,804
Mar 24, 2017 12:52pm Mar 24, 2017 12:52pm

KovanTrader
| Joined Feb 2017 | Status: Trader | 266 Posts

Am I the only one who believes we will make a new intraday low?

#64,805
Mar 24, 2017 1:17pm Mar 24, 2017 1:17pm

frx_trader
| Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Analyst | 3,688 Posts

Hit my SL. We will see how things are on Monday. Now I see why 111 is too high for UJ. Well, because the market is dumping USD like toilet paper.

EU and GU at 1.08 and 1.25. EJ should be below 120 and GJ below 140.

#64,806
Mar 24, 2017 1:59pm Mar 24, 2017 1:59pm

asgcorp
Joined Feb 2014 | Status: trading bank levels | 8,143 Posts

yeah market's dumping dollars, that's why DXY is flat last few days, kinda makes sense!

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#64,807
Mar 24, 2017 2:09pm Mar 24, 2017 2:09pm

JunkyFX
| Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Trader | 170 Posts

Quoting KovanTrader

Disliked

Am I the only one who believes we will make a new intraday low?

Ignored

Agree. Market selling assuming health care vote won't pass. Don't think it really matters one way or the other. By next week team Trump can talk up their "terrific" new tax plan and market will resume bull run.

#64,808
Mar 24, 2017 6:04pm Mar 24, 2017 6:04pm

JRissa
Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,107 Posts

Quoting JRissa

Disliked

{quote} Too soon... wait for it. https://youtu.be/AqdL1820Bw8 {image}

Ignored

As planned...

Inserted Video

I know the secret...

#64,809
Mar 24, 2017 6:27pm Mar 24, 2017 6:27pm

followthroug
| Joined Aug 2016 | Status: Human | 66 Posts

one day positive correlation, hope it helps

USDJPY - USDTHB 78.2%

Negative correlation

USDJPY - XAUUSD 68.3%

#64,810
Mar 24, 2017 7:28pm Mar 24, 2017 7:28pm

narafa
Joined Jan 2005 | Status: Keep Learning | 1,180 Posts

Quoting Dream_trader

Disliked

{quote} Never take real that "oanda (or any other broker) position stats", because that all is cents for market. There can be 75% long, but market go short...

Ignored

Indeed, it's even less than cents to the market. I am referring to clustered buy orders around 109.60 to 110.00 (Not open positions). Of course open orders can change as well as open positions can and do change dynamically.

What I was referring to is the overall sentiment of the retail market as well as their mindset in buying more below. At the end, the market will go where it wants to go and overall retail is not always wrong (Although most of the time it is).

So, if the market keeps consolidating at current levels and still the retail market stays put with their buy orders around 109.60-110 and the market finally starts moving there, this might guarantee a break of that level to the downside.

#64,811
Mar 24, 2017 7:33pm Mar 24, 2017 7:33pm

narafa
Joined Jan 2005 | Status: Keep Learning | 1,180 Posts

Quoting frx_trader

Disliked

Hit my SL. We will see how things are on Monday. Now I see why 111 is too high for UJ. Well, because the market is dumping USD like toilet paper. EU and GU at 1.08 and 1.25. EJ should be below 120 and GJ below 140.

Ignored

I don't know if you have noticed the patterns during this week which just ended. USDJPY, almost everyday, rally during Tokyo, London is either up or flat, NY is sell like hell and new lows. Only exception to this pattern was today, where there was sell the rally but no new lows.

Looks like a lot of US investment managers are doing a lot of rebalancing and position shifting. This coinciding with volatile moves in equities and surge in equity volatility, some people are re-positioning for sure.

#64,812
Mar 25, 2017 8:09am Mar 25, 2017 8:09am

freez2ryme
| Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Trader | 29 Posts

My bias for next week is Ranging market with more bullish momentum.

will buying dips in in Good support zones

#64,813
Mar 25, 2017 9:58am Mar 25, 2017 9:58am

Tekkonkira
| Joined Jan 2017 | Status: Trader | 43 Posts

Quoting Tom81

Disliked

{quote} Experience has taught me that when trading in direction of the main trend (impulse waves), it is best to have contrarian view to retail traders sentiment. When I want to "catch" short term reversal in corrective wave, I take the same direction as retail traders (after seeing at least one, better two divergences between price action and RSI - slowing price momentum and some inverse price pattern like double top, H&S, TL break, shooting star, evening star, engulfing candlesticks etc). {image}

Ignored

Thanks my friend this has led me onto furthur delving into client sentiment and I think it could be a useful additional source of support for any positions I decide to take. Peace