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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #64,761
  • Mar 23, 2017 9:04am Mar 23, 2017 9:04am
We might see some pullback here as price reached 127.8 % fib and some support area, but don't expect it to last past 50 % fib... We need risk on sentiment first to get busted rectangle pattern.
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  • #64,762
  • Mar 23, 2017 9:19am Mar 23, 2017 9:19am
Closed my long. Wait and see.
  • #64,763
  • Mar 23, 2017 9:21am Mar 23, 2017 9:21am
Can you please stop buying the USDJPY, just let it go to 109.
  • #64,764
  • Mar 23, 2017 9:35am Mar 23, 2017 9:35am
Why stop buying? The bull is at the door. I am watching it and it's at the door knocking. I am going to buy again if it hit 070 or 080.
  • #64,765
  • Mar 23, 2017 9:38am Mar 23, 2017 9:38am
The bear have a hard time knocking off 080. Rejected again today, and straight up to 111.10. What does it tell you?
  • #64,766
  • Mar 23, 2017 9:53am Mar 23, 2017 9:53am
...Sure there will be re-tracements and pullbacks that will offer scalping opportunities for the fleet of foot but lets consider two things..

 

  1. The target for shorts sits around 109.85 - 109.90
  2. There is a headline in the making..."USD JPY dips / Closes below 110"


..Bulls don't tend to knock politely at the door - they charge through it.

Now if you were a 'Bull' exactly where would you be ready to "charge"....Perhaps at a major liquidity level below a key round 'headline grabbing level" or right here at 111.05?

  • #64,767
  • Mar 23, 2017 9:57am Mar 23, 2017 9:57am
The best is do nothing and observe. Unless you very confident with what you are doing. All the best
  • #64,768
  • Mar 23, 2017 9:58am Mar 23, 2017 9:58am
If Obamacare will be canceled today, USD/JPY will go up after what can forget about 110...etc.
  • #64,769
  • Mar 23, 2017 10:02am Mar 23, 2017 10:02am
Quoting Dream_trader
If Obamacare will be canceled today, USD/JPY will go up after what can forget about 110...etc.
If by cancelled you mean repealed, I agree with you; but if the vote is delayed which is more probable, 109 is very close.
  • #64,770
  • Mar 23, 2017 10:05am Mar 23, 2017 10:05am
What time will it be announced?
  • #64,771
  • Mar 23, 2017 10:07am Mar 23, 2017 10:07am
USD / JPY will hit is target under 110..No doubt about that BUT there needs to be liquidity to do it..so there is likely to be chop for a bit because most who are short above 115 have covered and are holding and longs are nervous so close to a key level below..so chop is likely to bring in fresh orders that can be trampled on.

For me at least its a "no fly zone" for entries right now - each to their own...
  • #64,772
  • Edited 6:13pm Mar 23, 2017 10:12am | Edited 6:13pm
Quoting Dapsychopath
an attempt to reverse h4 it seems. first engulfing is just ok but not that strong. second attempt to thicken the confidence for bull is ongoing. on daily tf still pretty bearish af to me. so might want to treat it as minor correction perhaps. anyway, watch out and trade safe.
bid 110.9, out at 111.5.
Edited : was out at 111.25.
  • #64,773
  • Mar 23, 2017 10:51am Mar 23, 2017 10:51am
We are seeing double bottom attempt with bullish divergence on 1h chart. If price manages to close above 111.70, we might revisit 112.50 area. Again, I don't encourage anyone to go long (in fact I'm considering shorting it if we can get to 113.50 area). Just for those stuck with long positions, there might be hope to exit at better price.
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  • #64,774
  • Mar 23, 2017 11:10am Mar 23, 2017 11:10am
DailyFX client sentiment (76 % long) makes you think twice before going USD/JPY medium term long. Oanda (63 % long) and Dukascopy (70% long) similar story...

"We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias."
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  • #64,775
  • Mar 23, 2017 12:38pm Mar 23, 2017 12:38pm
Quoting Tom81
DailyFX client sentiment (76 % long) makes you think twice before going USD/JPY medium term long. Oanda (63 % long) and Dukascopy (70% long) similar story... "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias." {image}
Hey Tom i'm fairly new to trading would like to ask you if you always take the contrarian view to the sentiment data? Thanks man
Did Mike Jordan always make so much bank or Snoop Doggy roll so much dank?
  • #64,776
  • Edited 11:54pm Mar 23, 2017 12:59pm | Edited 11:54pm
50% retracement and dropping again. The market indicates it's not ready for 110 and UJ is still weak. But nobody can rule out 112.60. I will always try this number everyday until it reaches there.
  • #64,777
  • Mar 23, 2017 1:57pm Mar 23, 2017 1:57pm
Vote might be postponed till tomorrow or even a later date.
  • #64,778
  • Mar 23, 2017 2:22pm Mar 23, 2017 2:22pm
Quoting Tekkonkira
{quote} Hey Tom i'm fairly new to trading would like to ask you if you always take the contrarian view to the sentiment data? Thanks man
Experience has taught me that when trading in direction of the main trend (impulse waves), it is best to have contrarian view to retail traders sentiment. When I want to "catch" short term reversal in corrective wave, I take the same direction as retail traders (after seeing at least one, better two divergences between price action and RSI - slowing price momentum and some inverse price pattern like double top, H&S, TL break, shooting star, evening star, engulfing candlesticks etc).
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  • #64,779
  • Mar 23, 2017 5:13pm Mar 23, 2017 5:13pm
Well, I tried a long at 112.70, but got out with my small loss at 112.35. On Tuesday, I got the illusion during London session that it had already bottomed out and staging a rally for above 113, hell I was wrong.

Now, it's really amazing to see how many buy orders are clustered all the way up to 109.60, it will be a magnet pulling the price to it, sort of inevitable.
  • #64,780
  • Mar 23, 2017 5:30pm Mar 23, 2017 5:30pm
Quoting narafa
Well, I tried a long at 112.70, but got out with my small loss at 112.35. On Tuesday, I got the illusion during London session that it had already bottomed out and staging a rally for above 113, hell I was wrong. Now, it's really amazing to see how many buy orders are clustered all the way up to 109.60, it will be a magnet pulling the price to it, sort of inevitable.
good afternoon narafa..was wondering where you were getting your stats on the buyers..?
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