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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #64,741
  • Mar 22, 2017 11:05pm Mar 22, 2017 11:05pm
missed sl by a whisker
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  • #64,742
  • Mar 23, 2017 2:19am Mar 23, 2017 2:19am
Quoting Tom81
USD/JPY longs are playing with fire right now. Until I see S&P500 climbing back above 2372, I'm not even thinking of going long. USD/JPY is one of the most risk oriented pairs on the market, so going long in risk aversive markets environment is not my cup of tea. I have shorted AUDUSD as it is also a very risk sensitive pair (carry trade) facing strong technical resistance so both technicals and fundamentals align.

Tom what is so important about S&P 500 level being above 2372 before you consider a buy.
  • #64,743
  • Mar 23, 2017 3:30am Mar 23, 2017 3:30am
This pair is very seasonal. Sell during first half and buy during second half of the year. I wouldn't buy now unless it makes a recognizable bottom, the pair has been traded independently of other usd crosses.
  • #64,744
  • Mar 23, 2017 4:29am Mar 23, 2017 4:29am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} buddy if 111 is cracked firmly then your target is 107.50 nothing else, nothing else can stop that drop if it happens fundamentally no government will permit a major stock market crash from happening, certainly not trump so 111 should hold for now lets see how it goes
good point I agree. But stock market crash comes only if 100 breaks, so long it's trading in 100-110-120 range there's no crash. )))
  • #64,745
  • Mar 23, 2017 4:53am Mar 23, 2017 4:53am
ALERT : new bottom coming up today, start picking when ready

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #64,746
  • Mar 23, 2017 4:55am Mar 23, 2017 4:55am
So what, sell stop at 110.76?
  • #64,747
  • Mar 23, 2017 4:55am Mar 23, 2017 4:55am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} good point I agree. But stock market crash comes only if 100 breaks, so long it's trading in 100-110-120 range there's no crash. )))
mate,
when you say stock market crash you mean the US or the Japanese one ???
  • #64,748
  • Mar 23, 2017 4:58am Mar 23, 2017 4:58am
Treasuries are catching up to NZ and AUD yields. And if the recent stock market slump is due to growing pessimism Trump wont get his tax and fiscal reform done sooner rather than later, then treasuries must start to become more appealing.

The last time the USD was 110, the yield spread between the USD and JPN 10y bonds was roughly 2.2%. At the current 110 price, the yield spread is 2.35%.

Someone tell me, why the appetite for the Yen?
  • #64,749
  • Mar 23, 2017 5:22am Mar 23, 2017 5:22am
Quoting don555
{quote} Tom what is so important about S&P 500 level being above 2372 before you consider a buy.
Breaking above 2372 level again would negate strong bearish candle we see on a daily chart which has confirmed double top pattern.
  • #64,750
  • Mar 23, 2017 5:35am Mar 23, 2017 5:35am
Quoting Tom81
{quote} Breaking above 2372 level again would negate strong bearish candle we see on a daily chart which has confirmed double top pattern.
Tom,
not having an S+P chart available this moment ... if you apply it to DOW 30 you mean a buy at 20.966 on stop ???
Thanks

  • #64,751
  • Mar 23, 2017 6:05am Mar 23, 2017 6:05am
Why people buy JPY? I am still holding my short at 1.44. Looking for 2.60.
  • #64,752
  • Edited 6:29am Mar 23, 2017 6:10am | Edited 6:29am
Quoting F.g
{quote} Tom, not having an S+P chart available this moment ... if you apply it to DOW 30 you mean a buy at 20.966 on stop ??? Thanks
Yes... Daily closing above 21.000 would be even stronger sign of failed bearish attempt.

I'm not saying it will happen though. USD/JPY range has been broken. Right now what I see is just a retest of a broken neckline of double top and 200 SMA (4H) on SP500. If they hold, USD/JPY might revisit 107.50-108 area. We might get some correction but if risk aversive environment persist USD/JPY will fall further.
  • #64,753
  • Mar 23, 2017 6:19am Mar 23, 2017 6:19am
Ok. Time to go up now. Have to close my trade tonight. Because Friday will be nastier with low volume.
  • #64,754
  • Mar 23, 2017 8:05am Mar 23, 2017 8:05am
I hope noone is long here. Can't believe people are calling for longs in such a text book trend. Don't pick up tops and bottoms.
  • #64,755
  • Mar 23, 2017 8:25am Mar 23, 2017 8:25am
Quoting mades
I hope noone is long here. Can't believe people are calling for longs in such a text book trend. Don't pick up tops and bottoms.
Majority of retail traders unfortunately practice this self destructive behavior. Catching falling knife is one of the most common themes (unknowingly) being discussed on FF. You try to warn people to wait for some kind of consolidation or divergence, before even considering going against the main trend, but most of them don't listen. Well it's their money to spend.
  • #64,756
  • Mar 23, 2017 8:28am Mar 23, 2017 8:28am
Quoting Tom81
{quote} Majority of retail traders unfortunately practice this self destructive behavior. Catching falling knife is one of the most common themes (unknowingly) being discussed on FF. You try to warn people to wait for some kind of consolidation or divergence, before even considering going against the main trend, but most of them don't listen. Well it's their money to spend.
oh my god, just take a long position but it sunk again
  • #64,757
  • Mar 23, 2017 8:37am Mar 23, 2017 8:37am
Hopefully WS2 was the stopping point for todays down on USD/JPY....hopefully
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  • #64,758
  • Mar 23, 2017 8:42am Mar 23, 2017 8:42am
Quoting swimmax
Hopefully WS2 was the stopping point for todays down on USD/JPY....hopefully {image}
yes, I hope soooooo :-(
  • #64,759
  • Mar 23, 2017 8:47am Mar 23, 2017 8:47am
uj posibly to reach 112.5 or not?
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  • #64,760
  • Mar 23, 2017 9:02am Mar 23, 2017 9:02am
It has such strong trends that if it goes against its like suicide , thinking it will go back soon. It’s the 111 level the middle Point right now. Sellers are trying to breach it and buyers would try to hold it . As for now I closed some shorts and watching closely.
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