EURUSD

yeah good deal, I hear ya. GJ looks like range-locked someone's making bank in this 200 point range. UJ is nice more down coming next week but huuuge supports @ 111 region and won't be surprised if this is a major turning point as well, this thing can move 1000 points a quarter 110 to 120 is possible.

It did that exact move a few years ago and was there on that ride, was probably my very first big trade ever that time.

I hope for a quick spike around 133.60/133.80 to enter a short for a test of 111.00s.

nice setup. have same deal worked out for early next week. )))

Personally, I feel the answer is a little more complex. If anything was a sure system, we would all be extremely rich. However, when a trading tool is utilized by such a large amount of users, regardless if it is accurate or not, it becomes very powerful. What would normally be small insignificant trades is now synchronized and has ability to shift the market similar to banks. So Fib's are used by many people, Oscillators by many people, candlesticks by many people. I think there are many great tools to use that can give different insights. However to argue about it is pointless.

Hello
can I ask ..what is ole 24
Thank you and good luck.
Oddbj.

digger! it is interesting and simple ! what is the setting of moving averages ?

24 ema ,, exponential moving average ,,,, rough daily price average more or less, 24 hours in a day,,,,,,, 24 one hour periods in a day

yellow on the chart shown is a 21 , just gives it a buffer zone to place an order or make it easier to spot , ,, if its above or below the blue is just a quick reference to which way it has been moving with a quick glance if you trade several pairs

sorry yellow is a 14 ema

In my early days of trading, I used FIB. It came to a disaster, lost 50% of my Balance in a month. The FIB haunted me until now. I vowed that FIB was the most useless tool in trading and would never look at it.

So, I traded naked, Bollinger, EMAs, MACD etc. I find that naked and EMA's suit me most. And uses my intuition to pick any random numbers for S/R.

Until yesterday this FIB discussion pops up. I checked if my S/R random numbers fitted any FIBs. To my surprise, they did.

I see many traders have similar trading disaster with FIB. I might say FIB is the most useless and dangerous tool for some traders. But for some experience FIB traders, FIB is a very handy tool.

Reverse H&S but neckline not yet broken.
618 of previous swingHigh.
Resistence to be broken. ossible a further retracement to 670 or 615.
If neckline broken, target 1275

Obvious!!! But there is Fib and Fib..Some fib are retracement levels, Others are targets

Attachment g

LC+TL+SR+FB

Level to watch for me is 1.0867 (R3/38.2fib)
The only area I care for next week is this level, before price weaknening and we can look for sell opportunities..
..a little patience.

Stay Green

Hello All My Friends, i would like to fix a little from my previous post. The top side MAX RANGE is 1.0832 so, high probability this Monday the price will try to test one more last time for the higher at 1.0832
Strategy for this week until end of March:
SELL : 1.0830
Stop Loss : 1.0885
TAKE PROFIT at : 1.0400

Base for my analysis is:
From weekly chart i already see Head $ Shoulder pattern
LEFT ARM height: 1.0983
LEFT SHOULDER height: 1.1253
HEAD height: 1.1459
RIGHT SHOULDER height: 1.0789
RIGHT ARM height: 1.0736
Our position now is on the RIGHT ARM.

Careful and Patient
Good Luck

1.173x maybe sell EURUSD if it reaches there

futures...

my personal opinion:
My -technical- bias remains short. But I am slowly shifting towards believing my prophet (fundamental analyst who sees it bullish all the way)
The current technical analysis and the current fundamental analysis do not line up for now.
and then there is the moneyflow.... keep reading....

I say "current" because this is going to be decided by french elections. I still think we are in deep fundamental waters where anything can happen at any given time. The french elections will decide the shortterm/midterm future of the Eurozone and this will then paint a new technical scenario that I can then work with.
At the current situation I can not advice any longer term positions in the Euro pairs, unless you gamble on political events and on "Goldie FED-ECB" opposing/supporting these decisions. (my opinion on them is well known).
Until french elections are over I see a very slow market.

to be perfectly clear: I do not believe my own technical analysis to be right this week!
Technical D1 says "bearish", but I do not believe it.
Yes I do see the SHS down there, but I also see the possible SHS "triple top" where it is right now, indicated by the red zone, and as long as it keeps losing against the Yen and the USD remains in it's current state, it wont gain enough strength for the bullish breakout.
This is why I prefer the "short" bias, until I see a bullish breakout / pullback / bullish move. Then my bias shifts to the bulls side.
we might as well drop to the 1.064 and watching moneyflow on the correlating pairs, this is what I label as "more likely".
With a weaker USD and the EUR being sold against the Yen, it can't go up. It remains neutral or drops slowly on low volume.
The situation is: Sellers are there and the Euro does get sold, but not against US Dollar.

my advice:
If you still hold risk in this market, reduce it. Do not add any risk to any direction.
I can not predict what is likely going to happen here. (and it makes me sick)


my trading:
This setup is not interesting for my trading at the moment (almost all USD setups).
On the shorter timeframes we will see some "whipsaw" with lower low followed by a higher high, and finaly a slow moving short or another strong impulsive Long with a break of the EMA 200.
I do not know. Any decent move at this point needs a fundamental trigger. (not my element)
My intraday (scalping) focus is on the JPY pairs and the GBP pairs. We have better shortterm scalping setups and simply more movement.
I stay away from any USD and EUR pairs until I see higher volume coming in and/or a clear direction. Currently it is all too messy, as it tries to break out bullish but seems to lack the momentum to do it. Last week the JPY was the stongest performer and if it stays like this, this is where the money is.

Conclusion: Japan is beautiful around this time of the year

Chart 1: the clean version
Chart 2: maybe...
Chart 3: maybe not...


Trade at your own risk
Stay green and don't forget to smile

(edit: added Chart 3)

SO Euro and CHF are going up, can you post the link for this?