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  • #148,681
  • Mar 17, 2017 5:21am Mar 17, 2017 5:21am
Sisse you are like Mozart in trading. I see you hear the not yet composed music in your head and actually manage to write the composition on paper so we other can play it and even compose a little by ourself. Respect, great mentor !!!
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,682
  • Mar 17, 2017 5:39am Mar 17, 2017 5:39am
Quoting priceaction1
short @ 1.0775 x 25 pip risk.
close @BE no clear move on low time frame.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,683
  • Mar 17, 2017 6:26am Mar 17, 2017 6:26am
Euro falls after poll shows Le Pen in lead.....
In other news the Yanks about to obliterate North Korea http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...orea-has-ended
Disclaimer: I only go to zerohedge for a giggle at the comments section
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #148,684
  • Mar 17, 2017 7:59am Mar 17, 2017 7:59am
Quoting change
{quote} for sure! don't take me wrong, I'm not criticizing at all, exactly the opposite! Let me explain in other words: if this kind of sentences makes you jump on the chair looking for new positions you're deadly wrong, no doubt. Now maybe i'm wrong but based on my experience first times i read this thread, more then one year ago, an based on what i read in the thread i think more then one thread reader occasionally or continuosly fall in this kind of error. Well, stopping this and learning to bridge expectations in time level as well in price...
İ agree... Extreme buy USD outlook, imminent break up alert in oil to 63.xx . Very misundurstable comments. You cannot ask why anyone effected to bet oposite side. Sure this thread is not a signal provider or adviser. Better than that sure. What Sisse makes (thankfullly), to teach how fish. what to care, patience, risk management,disipline...Cannot be get even by money. Sure to learn detailed is not easy like anything else. But even for me who is very experienced in FX , smtgs diffucuilt not to understand wrong.
  • #148,685
  • Mar 17, 2017 8:31am Mar 17, 2017 8:31am
If I ever got a chance to meet sisse, I would just embarrass myself with any word that managed to escape my filter inside saying....

"don't say a word as nothing intellectual is coming out of your mouth when in the company of this person's intellect!"

It would take a few beers before I could probably say hi. Thankful for the Internet! Lol.
  • #148,686
  • Mar 17, 2017 8:37am Mar 17, 2017 8:37am
real picture of sisse, taken from secret location
Attached Image
  • #148,687
  • Mar 17, 2017 8:52am Mar 17, 2017 8:52am
Quoting Pharm0r
real picture of sisse, taken from secret location {image}
you think so
  • #148,688
  • Mar 17, 2017 8:58am Mar 17, 2017 8:58am
Quoting sisse
-> While Dollar outlooks seems to be clear for most, Euro* seems to be all over the place and very confusing. Euro*: => Employment = Things finally starting to pick up in the economy and especially in the perhiprpehy. However even for EZ higher unemployment standards we are still miles away from target. I make a note here that is VERY important in the Euro: THE ECB doesn't have the double mandate to promote employment !!!! only to control inflation. ECB obviously care about the economy but ECB Euro* expectations wont be affected by employment numbers...
Thanks for the clarification and for putting everything perspective. If you explain it like that it all sounds logical and you even make it look easy. (which it obviously isn't)
To answer your question about the euro. I don't think the expectations in the euro monetary side is going to change a lot within the next 6 months. The only upside risk in this 6 months could be rising energy prices that push headline inflation to critical levels so the ECB has to act but i don't see this very likely. The downside risks are the ones you mentioned and they obviously outweigh the upside risks. So based on that view i dont see much upside in the euro for now for the coming 6 months.

On the other hand i have to admit that i don't know how the market will behave on the euro* side the coming months and this imo the following reason:
1- I am only involved in the FA way of thinking since beginning 2016. So my knowledge is limited to what i have read so far and my experience is limited to what i have seen happening in that short time span and more importantly what i have understood from it.
The fact is that i have never before experienced a full transition from a dovish central bank to a hawkish central bank while understanding fully what is happening.
This is a major lack of experience and makes it really important for me to understand what has happened and more importantly what is going to happen and fully understand it while it is happening.

So going backwards dollar side FA: If i understood it well then we had a small dollar rally because of the march rate hike came earlier then expected (change in expectation) and the market also believed that an early march rate hike would imply 4 hikes, maybe even double march hike, or 1 hike plus hawkish FED. Then at yellen,nfp and FOMC the dollar bulls got disappointed so the expectations got back from 4 hikes to 3 hikes and we could see that in the market reaction after those events.

Going backwards euro side FA: If i understood it well euro has been the neutral part of the pair FA wise and has only been moving on election risk.

Going backwards eurusd TA wise: We have only been able to cross major levels when expectations changed. That's why we wouldn't go lower then 1.061xx after FOMC because the FOMC was in line with expectations.
Please correct me if i am wrong in the way i have understood what has happened, it will help me (and maybe others) a lot going forward.

I have a few questions going forward on euro, if i would get those answered it would help me a lot to see the things coming.
If we go forward in time then what will probably be the turning point FA wise in euro. You already stated that in Q3 the euro will probably be in full control.
I can see 3 major things coming that could potentially change the expectations regarding euro.
1. election outcome
2. the announcement of the end of QE or tapering
3. the beginning of rate hike expectations

What i dont know and would like to know is when and how the market will react to those events and when the big boys will start building there positions under the radar. Maybe we can even recognize it in the charts when they are staring to build there positions if we know what to look for at the wright time?

Best regards,
Nik
  • #148,689
  • Mar 17, 2017 9:27am Mar 17, 2017 9:27am
Thanks to all of you who provide such thoughtful posts.

Perhaps I missed it, but (and I like many who follow this thread have essentially no FA background or education) I'm not seeing that GDP projections may also have a significant impact on the dollar pairs. Personally, I like to keep an eye on the Atlanta Fed's GDP now tracker. https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/rese...w.aspx?panel=3

It's down to 0.9% for Q1. Based on their graph, the consensus had been about 2.2% thru Feb. 23rd, and then started dipping since then. I may be wrong, but I understand forex at its heart to be the flow of money based on trade and investment, so dips in GDP will directly affect that flow (i.e. less consumption, less projection, less expectation that new investments will bring as good of a return). The current EU rise started around Feb 23rd--which may be circumstantial-but it's at least a datapoint. Anyway, something to check out.

.....and, I'm currently going long AU. It looks to be pushing the resistance up to .78. A break there looks to take it to .81, so this would be a nice break to catch, if it happens. Short term, AU looks to be mimicking gold's moves; i.e. up to a peak since mid December, then a couple weeks retracement, and what looks to be an extension off the 61.8 fib if it goes up from here.
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defense wins championships
  • #148,690
  • Mar 17, 2017 11:17am Mar 17, 2017 11:17am
Quoting seemoore
out. .....and, I'm currently going long AU. It looks to be pushing the resistance up to .78. A break there looks to take it to .81, so this would be a nice break to catch, if it happens. Short term, AU looks to be mimicking gold's moves; i.e. up to a peak since mid December, then a couple weeks retracement, and what looks to be an extension off the 61.8 fib if it goes up from here. {image}
Do you have a map for AUDUSD? . I have a simple one for Weekly that I trade from attached here . I currently are in sell outlook short / middle term because of USD strength as discussed in the board.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,691
  • Mar 17, 2017 12:34pm Mar 17, 2017 12:34pm
Going to party nothing to see in eu .. . Happy weekend guys ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,692
  • Mar 17, 2017 12:43pm Mar 17, 2017 12:43pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Do you have a map for AUDUSD? . I have a simple one for Weekly that I trade from attached here . I currently are in sell outlook short / middle term because of USD strength as discussed in the board. {image}
I have a plan, not exactly a map. That yellow line you see running thru my pic is what I see as a mid term flip at about .7430, short term flip (not shown on that pic) is .75. If you zoom out on say a weekly, you can see that .78 level has been the top for a while, back to mid 2015. I get my .81 target as a 1.61 extension of the last daily move up which is also the 2.61 extension of the current week's rise, and both are just under the old resistance from mid 2015 at .8162.

I think USD strength peaked already for a time until mid Summer, possibly. The way I see the market going is that US and EU are both growing, which has already started putting pressure on commodity prices, which will influence AU to head upwards. Plus at these levels, the odds of a risk event being the catalyst to move commodities past some recent overhead resistance is good. I don't see the 'top' holding in AU. Your pic shows a sneaky triangle--after the initial low, there is a high, and each low and high since then have been inside the last---triangles usually end in continuation, which is a bull run here, plus they usually seem to break on the 5th move, which is the current bull leg, so failure here may mean bull capitulation and we'll see the lows again (on your map).

Timing wise, the last AU bull short term move took about 8 weeks. If this one takes the same time, we are looking at early May--i.e. about the time the Fed heads should start mumbling about a summer hike if they are going to do one then. Plus, I just love AB-CD patterns, and we won't get one on weekly or daily without the break.
defense wins championships
  • #148,693
  • Mar 17, 2017 12:56pm Mar 17, 2017 12:56pm
Quoting seemoore
Thanks to all of you who provide such thoughtful posts. Perhaps I missed it, but (and I like many who follow this thread have essentially no FA background or education) I'm not seeing that GDP projections may also have a significant impact on the dollar pairs. Personally, I like to keep an eye on the Atlanta Fed's GDP now tracker. https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/rese...w.aspx?panel=3 It's down to 0.9% for Q1. Based on their graph, the consensus had been about 2.2% thru Feb. 23rd, and then started dipping since then. I may be wrong,...
There is some disparity with the GDP Q1 growth forecast by the Atlanta Fed and other leading forecasters, such as New York Fed - which predicts 2.2% for Q1 growth. According to CNBC, the median GDP forecast for Q1 stands at 1.5%. The market is certainly downgrading their expectations for Q1 growth in recent weeks, though many are mainly attributing this expected slowdown to one-off and seasonal factors (which were particularly pronounced in January) and expect an acceleration in Q2 and beyond.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

http://www.cnbc.com/rapid-update/
  • #148,694
  • Mar 17, 2017 1:16pm Mar 17, 2017 1:16pm
Quoting mrcreosote
Euro falls after poll shows Le Pen in lead..... In other news the Yanks about to obliterate North Korea http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...orea-has-ended Disclaimer: I only go to zerohedge for a giggle at the comments section
ZH comment section is more toxic than sea around Fukushima. Exposing info about special ops training to take out NK leadership and openly debating possible milatary operation is probably more part of tactic of poking a dog with stick to ensure he bites back. Strategically its oportunity to make China overreact and further set the deal that already has been set under Obama and now further escalated under Trump. Its usual laydown of laying the nails so that hammer later on looks like only and best solution.
  • #148,695
  • Mar 17, 2017 2:27pm Mar 17, 2017 2:27pm
Quoting Earleone
Sisse you are like Mozart in trading. I see you hear the not yet composed music in your head and actually manage to write the composition on paper so we other can play it and even compose a little by ourself. Respect, great mentor !!!
Wow big words from you guys. Thanks i honestly appreciate your kind words. I feel embarrassed to hear so many compliments....

Mozart? Sound a bit over the top. I am coincidentally in amazing Vienna right now (great city top of the notch quality) so can't reply in detail today.

Thanks x the very kind words, you will chat later ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,696
  • Mar 17, 2017 2:43pm Mar 17, 2017 2:43pm
Thanks guys for the discussion all week long. lets keep it going.

Just a small update at the end of the trading week. While my map showed we entered into choose your poison area on ST.

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However I still have not pulled the trigger. I see today close as keeping the bullish flow on sub ST frame.

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The same absence of top is seen on MT - today W close as neutral.
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  • #148,697
  • Edited 3:52pm Mar 17, 2017 3:05pm | Edited 3:52pm
Quoting chester123
Thanks guys for the discussion all week long. lets keep it going. Just a small update at the end of the trading week. While my map showed we entered into choose your poison area on ST. {image} However I still have not pulled the trigger. I see today close as keeping the bullish flow on sub ST frame. {image} The same absence of top is seen on MT - today W close as neutral. {image}
we are just a few pips from yesterdays open lets see if it close below


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  • #148,698
  • Mar 17, 2017 4:01pm Mar 17, 2017 4:01pm
Quoting mayafx
{quote} we are just a few pips from yesterdays open lets see if it close below {image}
a little bit lower than my charts but with no changes of the situation technically

Have a great weekend everyone!!
  • #148,699
  • Edited 4:25pm Mar 17, 2017 4:02pm | Edited 4:25pm
Quoting chester123
Thanks guys for the discussion all week long. lets keep it going. Just a small update at the end of the trading week. While my map showed we entered into choose your poison area on ST. {image} However I still have not pulled the trigger. I see today close as keeping the bullish flow on sub ST frame. {image} The same absence of top is seen on MT - today W close as neutral. {image}
890-900 and some lower afterwards would be great to get, 100 pips away atm, getting there on "fake" and fact baking scenario would be solid to get in shorts, aside from French there isnt much on horizon clear for now unless i am missing some, getting there slowly would depend on micros if we lay better path for shorts.
Maybe replicating Brexit /up on French side(no brexit pricing in, and shock afterwards) would be good scenario for EUR shorts, might happen might not but if does would fill along your map. 100 pips is not far away so for that scenario one would want to see price stall around current price area next days/2 weeks and then go with momentum to key levels. As long as polls stay close to 50-50% area that might be in play. Its fair play even with failure since it delivers good RR.
From tech perspective this could be played on both sides agressively. We cleared range and got some so agressive longs could be playing that to push upwards to 1.2X as long as environment agrees, but shorts could be playing on facts for 900 to fail on both sides it RR. Short term events and price moves before/after are likely to tell which side has better probability.
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  • #148,700
  • Mar 17, 2017 6:45pm Mar 17, 2017 6:45pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Wow big words from you guys. Thanks i honestly appreciate your kind words. I feel embarrassed to hear so many compliments.... Mozart? Sound a bit over the top. I am coincidentally in amazing Vienna right now (great city top of the notch quality) so can't reply in detail today. Thanks x the very kind words, you will chat later ... sisse
Ummm you sure your not in Baden-Baden
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