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  • #148,661
  • Mar 16, 2017 5:03pm Mar 16, 2017 5:03pm
EU Possible bottoming...took away candles for better visual of levels and inverted H&S ...atm Daily close agrees again but this you can see yourself..Grey dotted line is current price. Of course nobody knows exactly where the price will move next day but it might help someone not jumping the gun too early.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Scenario.jpg Size: 85 KB

Earleone- wanted to make you think twice about that carry trade of yours EU shorts..
PVSRA
  • #148,662
  • Mar 16, 2017 5:23pm Mar 16, 2017 5:23pm
Uneventful close across the board. All markets in soft continuation as expected since the FED

Dollar nearly there. All eyes on a test below 100.xx for setting the low of this year for the Q close.

Not much to do or see with same levels, same trades, same all.

Plenty of topics still open. We'll keep it rolling till the W close

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,663
  • Mar 16, 2017 5:40pm Mar 16, 2017 5:40pm
Quoting sisse
On the FX board, Dollar holding by inches a major break up while Euro* witha rather bullish close at key levels for the first time since 2015. The long and mid term bottom of the Euro is officially 1 and 1/2 elections away in the next few weeks.
Quoting sisse
Dollar nearly there. All eyes on a test below 100.xx for setting the low of this year for the Q close.
With a longterm bottom around the corner in EUR (post elections) and USD potentially about to set the low of the year are we saying the rest of the year we will have a very wide NEUTRAL chop zone?

At this point is EURUSD off the table in terms of trading opportunities?
  • #148,664
  • Mar 16, 2017 6:50pm Mar 16, 2017 6:50pm
Quoting sisse
You actually get the.same information forecast but from analyzing macro ...ee
So we have overwhelming B in almost all scenarios. Before moving to the Euro* side.

Assume for a second euro is irrelevant in the equation. I want to bridge past with present so exact levels are irrelevant and not necessarily the real ones in play.

=> Mar 2016 outlook Dollar hawkish 2 hikes expected till Dec 2016
Price: 1.14
Target: 1.06

What do you do?.... No brainier sell expectations (green zone / cheap tickets etc)

=> Oct 2016 no hikes yet. Markets losing patience with FED. Credibility fading.
Price: 1.12
Target : 1.06

What you do ? Nothing sell and wait.

=> Nov/Dec 2016 FED finally send the go ahead. Trump storm the board with a major push on Dollar expectations. Macro numbers enter in Boom mode. Markets digest 2 hikes as done deal and start thinking in 2017.

Price: finally clear 1.06xx. and o as low as 1.04
Target 1.06xx

=>Jan 2017/march 2017 Trump honeymoon, macro numbers rocketing in all fronts. Fed Exp increase to 4 fresh hikes this year!!!

Suddenly we unlock a map further down and in March FED finally pull the trigger completing the long overdue hikes from 2016!!!! But we are more than digested and traded that leg (back in Dec)

Now March we have not 4 but 3 fresh hikes for this year.

Price 1.06
Target: Parity

What do you do. Dump, pump and dump, wait for further data, nothing.

....Tbc

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,665
  • Mar 16, 2017 7:02pm Mar 16, 2017 7:02pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ... Now March we have not 4 but 3 fresh hikes for this year. Price 1.06 Target: Parity What do you do. Dump, pump and dump, wait for further data, nothing. ....Tbc sisse
now we're talking
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,666
  • Mar 16, 2017 7:20pm Mar 16, 2017 7:20pm
The title of the iteration was: "Mirrors and Shadows. Playing with the big boys"

--> What I am trying to highlight is some basic market behaviour concepts and timing that are useful when swinging. Doesn't mean there is a magic formula or it always follow the same pattern.

--> Trading is a dynamic process. Price move from fundamental reasons that make markets participants adapt expectations of value depending on those factors.

-->Not all participants agree with the same levels at the same time. Thats why we wave waves. Sometimes everybody is on the same line and 'targets' and we move smoothly and clearly. Sometimes we don't. At the end the side that is right will prevail.

--> When we reach major S/R FA levels (e.g 1.061x etc) strong forces beyond speculator or just simple banks and traders enter in the market. A currency is one of the pillar in the Economy. Currencies like the Euro or Dollar cannot just wipe out 5000 ticks in one day without having major repercussion in the real and global economy. Thats why historical or major lows or highs levels are sometimes impossible to breach or break for decades.

-> I know we all want a secret formula to understand. A lot of people keep asking me how did you know this or that before it happened. Why this today and not yesterday. It's impossible to learn this, etc.

-> As I always said 90% of the answers are in the basic concepts (in this case general market behaviour). They may seem impossible to master, but what doesn't in anything in real life. Just start with the basics. Things will build naturally and start making sense easier. You wont get a magic bullet in 1 day reading this conversation alone.

Having said that, lets go back to the fundamental talk and hopefully we can wrap up in a high.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,667
  • Mar 16, 2017 7:53pm Mar 16, 2017 7:53pm
I know how difficult is to explain in simple words what one sees in a chart by experience , yet Sisse makes it rather clear how he sees it and shares the way he dissects the market . In my books , that tells enough about the person behind the trader he is

For new comers , check backposts about positions management before jumping in TA and FA questions

In my case , I am patient now more than ever but I can't deny that I trade some intraday moves that look rather simple in terms of direction and r/r.

I am eager to see what comes next in EU after this move , 1.050x handle proved solid support for a proper break countless times and that says much about Market cautiousness to get close to parity target for now at least so let's wait and see and maybe learn a thing or two in the process
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,668
  • Mar 16, 2017 7:55pm Mar 16, 2017 7:55pm
-> While Dollar outlooks seems to be clear for most, Euro* seems to be all over the place and very confusing.

Euro*:
=> Employment = Things finally starting to pick up in the economy and especially in the perhiprpehy. However even for EZ higher unemployment standards we are still miles away from target. I make a note here that is VERY important in the Euro:

THE ECB doesn't have the double mandate to promote employment !!!! only to control inflation.

ECB obviously care about the economy but ECB Euro* expectations wont be affected by employment numbers !!!! and therefore they are not as relevant as for all other CBs.

=> Inflation = below target but on track if the economy holds for a couple of Q. Only the extreme German obsession with inflation makes some noise about it but they are far from real concerns.

=> Rates = No cuts or hikes on sight for this year as per lsat ECB (despite the gossip). From both, further negative cuts or hikes, I would actually give higher odds for a cut (very very low chances) if things go upside down on the risk front.

=> QE = Nothing is expected to change until June/July thats when expectations are aligned to start shifting towards the Euro to take full control.

Can you see anything bullish?

Keep in mind i am Not including risk which is a major force until French election are cleared and then we still have some secondary shock during the UK negotiations if things get choppy in the political front.

On the positive side, economy finally bottomed and its starting to pick up. Without risk and protectionism we should be set for a good year for the Economy but with a huge gap to cover in employment. UK is going to leave a huge piece of the pie and billions and billions of €€€€€ and business on the table for grabbing. Lots of countries will benefit in key sectors from the UK isolating (and potentially disintegrating). Lots of opps in the EZ for the next couple of years.

On the monetary side we are still behind in inflation, with negative rate and QE still in full swing. Risk is imminent via France, Risk is becoming permanent with the world moving towards protectionism and less trade, Risk will come in short waves and handicap a full swing up via Brexit negotiations that can trigger collateral issues among their members.

To wrap up today I leave the conversation open. Is the current Euro* outlook buy or sell? Is the expectations in the Euro* in the monetary side going to change or stay in the next 6 months? What do you think are the odds form 1 to 100% that anything will change in ECB from today till July?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,669
  • Mar 16, 2017 8:09pm Mar 16, 2017 8:09pm
Quoting sisse
o wrap up today I leave the conversation open. Is the current Euro* outlook buy or sell? Is the expectations in the Euro* in the monetary side going to change or stay in the next 6 months? What do you think are the odds form 1 to 100% that anything will change in ECB from today till July? sisse
euro* outlook is sell
no change in monetary side in next 6 months
odds 20% if the french shoot themselves in the foot !!
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,670
  • Mar 16, 2017 9:32pm Mar 16, 2017 9:32pm
Just catching up-

EURO* sell
no change in next 6 months, so sit and wait for more information on that point

Thank you for breaking it down further sisse- sorry went MIA for a bit....life and what not
  • #148,671
  • Mar 16, 2017 10:50pm Mar 16, 2017 10:50pm
No change in Outlook until July. Waiting for Dollar to find support and Eu to find resistance at .087x. Still trailing my Long. Looking to short at .087x
  • #148,672
  • Mar 16, 2017 10:53pm Mar 16, 2017 10:53pm
Euro* sell. Some upside potential only after election risk clears, but even then still bearing the weight of risk and monetary policy. 5% chance the ECB changes anything. Much higher chance of political risk as hoom mentioned.
  • #148,673
  • Mar 17, 2017 2:39am Mar 17, 2017 2:39am
Super nice FA discussion.

Nicelly puts the stuff in perspective. So its cleat that its USD MT sell + EUR MT sell =) E/U strong sell.

Actually about the Q on ECB I would guess: 80% of no changes, 15% of a cut via Le Pen and 5% of a hike.
  • #148,674
  • Mar 17, 2017 2:47am Mar 17, 2017 2:47am
a lot to read ... meanwhile euro back in .76/.87 zone (AD), looking for new positions as i did last time (missed the long tough)

Sisse i think you could have spread some obviously unwanted confusion on euro outlook too.

When you say "euro bottom is around the corner" you talk based on your experience and with very clear flow timings in mind but for many of us it's not the case so many struggles to understand if you're talking about days or months.

Learning to translate expectations in timings, even more than in pricing, in my opiniom is one of the best hints coming from this great thread
  • #148,675
  • Mar 17, 2017 2:52am Mar 17, 2017 2:52am
Quoting change
a lot to read ... meanwhile euro back in .76/.87 zone (AD), looking for new positions as i did last time (missed the long tough) Sisse i think you could have spread some obviously unwanted confusion on euro outlook too. When you say "euro bottom is around the corner" you talk based on your experience and with very clear flow timings in mind but for many of us it's not the case so many struggles to understand if you're talking about days or months. Learning to translate expectations in timings, even more than in pricing, in my opiniom is one of the...

I know its easy to get lost in the flow of thread and hard to keep thinkgs clear (mostly outlooks) but he also many times stated that hes talking about MT and LT bottom so it still perfectly fits into the last exension MT and forming the long term bottom around Q3.
  • #148,676
  • Mar 17, 2017 3:06am Mar 17, 2017 3:06am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I know its easy to get lost in the flow of the thread and keet thinks clear but he also many times stated that hes talking about mid and long term bottom so It still perfectly fits into the last extension MT time window and forming the long term bottom around Q3.
for sure! don't take me wrong, I'm not criticizing at all, exactly the opposite!

Let me explain in other words:
if this kind of sentences makes you jump on the chair looking for new positions you're deadly wrong, no doubt.

Now maybe i'm wrong but based on my experience first times i read this thread, more then one year ago, an based on what i read in the thread i think more then one thread reader occasionally or continuosly fall in this kind of error.

Well, stopping this and learning to bridge expectations in time level as well in price level imho is one of the better value of many many of us can take from this thread.
  • #148,677
  • Mar 17, 2017 3:10am Mar 17, 2017 3:10am
Quoting change
{quote} for sure! don't take me wrong, I'm not criticizing at all, exactly the opposite! Let me explain in other words: if this kind of sentences makes you jump on the chair looking for new positions you're deadly wrong, no doubt. Now maybe i'm wrong but based on my experience first times i read this thread, more then one year ago, an based on what i read in the thread i think more then one thread reader occasionally or continuosly fall in this kind of error. Well, stopping this and learning to bridge expectations in time level as well in price...
of course, I did not mean to stop any criticism. Statement "bottom is behind corner" is definitely very confusing and for newcomers or lurkers (which I know you are not) is killing as it just triggers the chasing of any M1/5/15 move up

As happened to me when I was new here some time ago. So I think if we keep discussing the FA outlooks as usul we can hopefully keep the right perspective.
  • #148,678
  • Edited 3:45am Mar 17, 2017 3:11am | Edited 3:45am
Quoting sisse
Great discussions. Don't even know where to start.... Well I honestly think most of the latest comments have a deep insight and have blow by a mile or two the usual average market conversation in FF. A couple of points before we get into details. -> I would recommend to spend less time in explaining the past and in focusing in the present so you can trade the expectations in the future. Not trying to avoid the points raised. We will go into details as you have triggered a good discussion. However, instead of starting from what happened, let's start...
US: inflation inline very close, full empoyment outlook good rate ontrack to full normalisation
EU: inflation still lagging behind quite a bit, employment getting better very slow still on very high levle, rates still far away

closed my long looking to reload if we get a good signal dont think it will be today

more likly around 1.082x
  • #148,679
  • Mar 17, 2017 3:30am Mar 17, 2017 3:30am
reloaded @1.077x S/l above 1.083x target low of 2017 or beyond not yet set ....

lets c ....

mind blowing FA talk seriously .... dont know how much time have to read it to understand FA ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,680
  • Mar 17, 2017 4:35am Mar 17, 2017 4:35am
short @ 1.0775 x 25 pip risk.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
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