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  • #1,096,341
  • Mar 14, 2017 7:59am Mar 14, 2017 7:59am
Quoting frx_trader
My feeling is it will retrace back to 1.0540 before the FED. Because the bull has a real chance to fight there. Then retrace back to 1.0650. BUT AS USUAL I AM WRONG MOST OF THE TIME.
Excuse me if I bother... nobody can be wrong all the time!
I mean if you can be proved statistically wrong most of the time, you just have to reverse what you do and ...be successful!
Member
  • #1,096,342
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:01am Mar 14, 2017 8:01am
Quoting frx_trader
My feeling is it will retrace back to 1.0540 before the FED. Because the bull has a real chance to fight there. Then retrace back to 1.0650. BUT AS USUAL I AM WRONG MOST OF THE TIME.
there is no way it will go to 1.0540 before fed and then after 1.0650... 90+% of a rate hike, pretty much done deal... if its at 1.0540 before then we seeing 1.0400 on same day before Day close
  • #1,096,343
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:03am Mar 14, 2017 8:03am
Quoting kittikann.s
i see it stuck at 1.06300-1.06200. Will it be lower or now it's time to go for long ?
It's time to wait and see. The US rate hike is one of the most important events of the year(few more hikes, yes, pobably). It's a phenomenon.
Even if the most part of the people knows the result it's the waiting sentiment effect ..............unless Big Dogs have info that we - the retailers - don't have ahead the event and start the fireworks earlier
Member
  • #1,096,344
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:05am Mar 14, 2017 8:05am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Excuse me if I bother... nobody can be wrong all the time! I mean if you can be proved statistically wrong most of the time, you just have to reverse what you do and ...be successful!
You probably said this "in jest", but I just wanted to mention that there is a definite exception to this rule. The exception is this: If you are a scalper or are trading really rapidly, it can often be that your commission would eat all of your profits irregardless of what direction you take. So basically something like this becomes a "bit of a logical fallacy." So you will still lose, but you might lose more slowly.

Just wanted to mention because it is something that is good to realize and that is often easy to forget. =D
  • #1,096,345
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:08am Mar 14, 2017 8:08am
There is only one way
  • #1,096,346
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:10am Mar 14, 2017 8:10am
Quoting skillz16
{quote} You probably said this "in jest", but I just wanted to mention that there is a definite exception to this rule. The exception is this: If you are a scalper or are trading really rapidly, it can often be that your commission would eat all of your profits irregardless of what direction you take. So basically something like this becomes a "bit of a logical fallacy." So you will still lose, but you might lose more slowly. Just wanted to mention because it is something that is good to realize and that is often easy to forget. =D
Yes, it is a logical fallacy, I prefer to call it a sophism
The way to success it just can't be that easy ...any idiot trader can reverse his moment options and be a billionaire
The explanation is simple: if you reverse shit it doesn't mean you will get gold! ...you will get just another shit
Member
  • #1,096,347
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:10am Mar 14, 2017 8:10am
closed @ 1.0628
+ 31 pips
  • #1,096,348
  • Edited 8:28am Mar 14, 2017 8:17am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Excellent US data. Thank God, nothing happened! Free way to technicals until tomorrow
that's shit. Something must happen. Markets are frozen. Can't trade something that doesn't move.
What doesn't move doesn't paint funny things on chart. What doesn't paint funn things on chart doesn't create valid signals. What doesn't create valid signals is a dead market. That's terrible.
Can't you just call Draghi or Yellen or the likes and tell them to say something silly, so we get some vola back into this?
This is all just terrible...
I lose pips that I shouldnt lose because I try to trade shit that I shouldn't trade, just because I want to do something. I could make the upcoming sunday charts just now. It's tuesday! JESUS CHRIST!
Do something! I can't paint funny shit on the charts when the candles don't move!
I AM BORED

(and no, I did not really hit McD and I did not really eat a hamburger but that video is damn funny)
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,096,349
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:22am Mar 14, 2017 8:22am
Guys don't forget about the election tomorrow in the Netherlands. ... that can build big presume on the euro if the right wing wins
  • #1,096,350
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:25am Mar 14, 2017 8:25am
Quoting Teek
{quote} that's shit. Something must happen. Markets are frozen. Can't trade something that doesn't move. I AM BORED (and no, I did not really hit McD and I did not really eat a hamburger but that video is damn funny)
It's the WAIT ahead FOMC, mate!
Member
  • #1,096,351
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:27am Mar 14, 2017 8:27am
Quoting Teek
{quote} that's shit. Something must happen. Markets are frozen. Can't trade something that doesn't move. What doesn't move doesn't paint funny things on chart. What doesn't paint funn things on chart doesn't create valid signals. What doesn't create valid signals is a dead market. That's terrible. Can't you just call Draghi or Yellen or the likes and tell them to say something silly, so we get some vola back into this? This is all just terrible... I lose pips that I shouldnt lose because I try to trade shit that I shouldn't trade,...
perhaps your screen is frozen
  • #1,096,352
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:29am Mar 14, 2017 8:29am
Quoting Don96
{quote} perhaps your screen is frozen
I seriously check if I am disconnected all the time when the markets fall asleep.
All the time. "eh?... am I still connected.... hello?...."
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,096,353
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:30am Mar 14, 2017 8:30am
Quoting Dalchow
Guys don't forget about the election tomorrow in the Netherlands. ... that can build big presume on the euro if the right wing wins
OMG, ...tomorrow we will gonna have some fireworks!
lesson to learn: do not gambling!
Member
  • #1,096,354
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:31am Mar 14, 2017 8:31am
Quoting Teek
{quote} I seriously check if I am disconnected all the time when the markets fall asleep. All the time. "eh?... am I still connected.... hello?...."
ive managed to make 50 pips today, and some running... not sure what market you are watching? perhaps its just a Google image?
  • #1,096,355
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:32am Mar 14, 2017 8:32am
Quoting Teek
{quote} I seriously check if I am disconnected all the time when the markets fall asleep. All the time. "eh?... am I still connected.... hello?...."
Have some KFC hot wings and stay sharp ...no, no coffee, you're already a merry person

Quoting Don96
{quote} ive managed to make 50 pips today, and some running... not sure what market you are watching? perhaps its just a Google image?
and our champ for today is................ Don! Cheers! ...cool, man, congratz!
Member
  • #1,096,356
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:40am Mar 14, 2017 8:40am
Quoting Don96
{quote} ive managed to make 50 pips today, and some running... not sure what market you are watching? perhaps its just a Google image?
Hm you got stopped twice and UJ's range is not even 50 sofar ... 50 pips in these conditions is damn impressive, congratz.
  • #1,096,357
  • Mar 14, 2017 8:53am Mar 14, 2017 8:53am
@Don: OH! Indeed! My chair was turned the wrong way and I was staring at a wall for 8 hours! Thank you! There it is.. oh look... nothing moves... maybe I should... clean... the screen...maybe?

@Tudor: shit I just had a coffee. Too late
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,096,358
  • Mar 14, 2017 9:00am Mar 14, 2017 9:00am
Quoting Teek
shit I just had a coffee. Too late
Uh, spooky! Stay away!
Member
  • #1,096,359
  • Mar 14, 2017 9:04am Mar 14, 2017 9:04am
Writing this off until tomorrow/FED. I think anything else is just burning money. Still sitting on 3/9 long from 1.0570 for the moment.

I'm thinking tomorrow:
*1.0580 will need to hold for LONG to hold.
*1.0550 would be the lowest I'd expect to see - and it would probably go up from there pretty rapidly to above 1.0580 for LONG to hold...

If it looks like 1.0580 is going to be definitively broken and then HELD as resistance, then the "long term signal" changes to SHORT. Depending on what it looks like though, I'd recommend longs when/as long as it is over 1.0580.

MY PLAN:
If it spikes down immediately on the FED news tomorrow and is below 1.0580, I'd personally wait for it to OPEN on 1 MIN back above 1.0580 before any LONG entry... and like I said, depending on what the time was and how the action is, the longer term signal might be changing to SHORT so could be a difficult time...

My guess is it trades flat to up today, spikes down to 1.058 tomorrow during the FED news, and then who knows from there... the current long term signal remains LONG unless it definitively is below 1.058. I'm also wondering if it will "change to long term SHORT phase" as of tomorrow... but who knows I suppose.
  • #1,096,360
  • Mar 14, 2017 9:07am Mar 14, 2017 9:07am
Quoting mades
{quote} Hm you got stopped twice and UJ's range is not even 50 sofar ... 50 pips in these conditions is damn impressive, congratz.
been stopped once on UJ for -4... also closed one out for +4 and got another still running from 115.153... as posted this morning

AU running and EU running still, also closed some AU's out earlier
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