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  • #1,095,981
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:18am Mar 13, 2017 1:18am
Quoting procrude
Bears coming through
hourly close below 1.0680 should drag down to 1.0640 levels as per 100 MA 5M chart
The Phoenix Trader....
  • #1,095,982
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:32am Mar 13, 2017 1:32am
Good morning

Not much happened during Asia Session, so there is not much to say.
My Outlook with charts (D1+H1) is here --> https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...24#post9654924
(posted yesterday, before Asia Open)

I expect a slow morning, until 14:30 Draghi speech. If you trade my charts, don't trade around it! (never trade around red flags)

my todays Trading:
I already tried some pre Open shorts over all EURUSD/EURGBP/EURJPY/GBPUSD and a Long on USD/CHF (orders are already closed for baby pips profit as the trades didn't "pull" before open and I am not really awake yet. (0.5% net profit pre-awake is not bad )
But the signals are there, all pairs are facing cluster resistance, and this is the direction I most likely will watch for signals after Open.
Slow market until 14:00 to be expected (good for technical, good for H1 Scalps).
Afternoon, everything changes again, so we'll see, but we shold be green until then.
Have fun, stay careful, and green pips
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,095,983
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:33am Mar 13, 2017 1:33am
Good Morning and have a profitable week !
EUR looks perfectly tradeable this week .
My plan ( eventually ) - see what Draghi has to say and where is EUR going afterwards ....then this is my direction till wednesday
  • #1,095,984
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:33am Mar 13, 2017 1:33am
Quoting Connors
I would like to point out 1.0733 as the level that will separate bulls from bears next week. It is the 71.4% ret level from 1.0492 to 1.0829. Needless to say it is bullish on all time frames since it took 1.0662, any dip to 1.0610s is a buy opportunity for me for next week. Tough week it was but at least it has now volatility kicking in.

Short EU @1.0704
Long UJ @114.59
  • #1,095,985
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:42am Mar 13, 2017 1:42am
My Intraday Outlook.
(ahead London)

The 1.0530 rally continues. 1.0700 might be a psychological point for the correction expected.
Possible range until Draghi although a minor impact expected.
(just opening remarks at a joint conference organized by the ECB and MIT, in Frankfurt)

Fundamentals:
Even the NFP was good, EUR/USD surges. Why?
The US Hourly Average Earnings mean wages and there were printed bad numbers.
Wages affects inflation. And inflation affects the hike opportunity.
Since we have two strong inflation indicators this week, the PPI and CPI just ahead the FOMC, the hike percentages are affected accordingly.

More, from Bloomberg sources, ECB might rise the rates before the end of the QE programme. ...and that's more hawkish than Draghi already was on Thursday!

My conclusion is that EUR/USD bulls can go for more until US inflation data ...but an imminent correction is expected.

So I will wait to see what happens first today. I'll buy above1.0710 (go with crazy bulls) or sell below 1.0685 (the correction).

Have a good trading day you all!
Member
  • #1,095,986
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:45am Mar 13, 2017 1:45am
Friday NFP was 235K, a very good figure but EURUSD went up and took by surprise many traders. THIS IS WHY I DON'T do THE FUNDAMENTAL DATA AND FUNDAMENTAL NEWS!!! I only watch the charts, everything is in the charts and ofcourse most of the news are already factored in.
I wait for EURUSD to reach 1.0750 and I will sell for 100 pips target.

All the best!
  • #1,095,987
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:46am Mar 13, 2017 1:46am
Quoting TudorIoan
My Intraday Outlook. (ahead London) The 1.0530 rally continues. 1.0700 might be a psychological point for the correction expected. Possible range until Draghi although a minor impact expected. (just opening remarks at a joint conference organized by the ECB and MIT, in Frankfurt) Fundamentals: Even the NFP was good, EUR/USD surges. Why? The US Hourly Average Earnings mean wages and there were printed bad numbers. Wages affects inflation. And inflation affects the hike opportunity. Since we have two strong inflation indicators this week, the PPI...

100% agreed, question for you.

In the equity/futures markets (to some extent), for a while, good news was bad news.

In FOREX, does that same thought process work in establishing a trading plan?

Thanks
  • #1,095,988
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:47am Mar 13, 2017 1:47am
Quoting pipshaman
Friday NFP was 235K, a very good figure but EURUSD went up and took by surprise many traders. THIS IS WHY I DON'T do THE FUNDAMENTAL DATA AND FUNDAMENTAL NEWS!!! I only watch the charts, everything is in the charts and ofcourse most of the news are already factored in. I wait for EURUSD to reach 1.0750 and I will sell for 100 pips target. All the best!
Totally agree with you! If you don't understand economics and finances you better just watch the charts. You can make a great trader like this
Member
  • #1,095,989
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:49am Mar 13, 2017 1:49am
Quoting pipshaman
Friday NFP was 235K, a very good figure but EURUSD went up and took by surprise many traders. THIS IS WHY I DON'T do THE FUNDAMENTAL DATA AND FUNDAMENTAL NEWS!!! I only watch the charts, everything is in the charts and ofcourse most of the news are already factored in. I wait for EURUSD to reach 1.0750 and I will sell for 100 pips target. All the best!
Yep, that's going to be some good shorts incoming up there
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,095,990
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:50am Mar 13, 2017 1:50am
Anyone has any experience with soft commodities trading here?
  • #1,095,991
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:54am Mar 13, 2017 1:54am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Totally agree with you! If you don't understand economics and finances you better just watch the charts. You can make a great trader like this
Hello Tudor! I do understand the fundamentals but I think the price reflects them better than anything and I also like simple things, I realy I am a zen practitioner (zen meditation and zen atitude lol ) and I like simple things and what is more simple than to react to the price !!!???
On the other hand yes, your fundamental analysis is realy great and this is why I follow you lol

P.S. Gone are the days I had the patience and nerves to do my own fundamental analysis lol

All the best and trade well!!!
  • #1,095,992
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:55am Mar 13, 2017 1:55am
Better to be away from trading now....
weird moves
The Phoenix Trader....
  • #1,095,993
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:55am Mar 13, 2017 1:55am
Quoting HFABamaFan
{quote} 100% agreed, question for you. In the equity/futures markets (to some extent), for a while, good news was bad news. In FOREX, does that same thought process work in establishing a trading plan? Thanks
Yeap DAX, SP500, DJ they all surged lately. (reversed historical correlation with the ccy)
The signal comes fron the US economy stronger on good macro indicators printings and the ECB hawkish on visible improving euro economy.
It's a growing euphoria all over the charts. And it's possible that the hike on Wednesday might not cause a mini crash of the euro, ...because euro is backed up by the ECB for the moment
Member
  • #1,095,994
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:58am Mar 13, 2017 1:58am
Quoting pipshaman
{quote} Hello Tudor! I do understand the fundamentals but I think the price reflects them better than anything and I also like simple things, I realy I am a zen practitioner (zen meditation and zen atitude lol ) and I like simple things and what is more simple than to react to the price !!!??? On the other hand yes, your fundamental analysis is realy great and this is why I follow you lol P.S. Gone are the days I had the patience and nerves to do my own fundamental analysis lol All the best and trade well!!!
Nice to see I'm not the only Zen practitioner in here
And I totaly agree with your view on Tudors fundamentals.
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,095,995
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:58am Mar 13, 2017 1:58am
Just wondering if anyone thinks the bottom chart looks bullish in any way,,,,,,,,, it is the inverse of eur,,,,,, USD/EUR, if it does by all means keep shorting , the stops will just keep propelling the top chart up, If any pullback it may only be too the 50 level of the move down to quarterly open , at least wait till dragi speaks to throw your money away it can move a long way from now till then. Just saying.
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  • #1,095,996
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:59am Mar 13, 2017 1:59am
Quoting pipshaman
{quote} Hello Tudor! I do understand the fundamentals but I think the price reflects them better than anything and I also like simple things, I realy I am a zen practitioner (zen meditation and zen atitude lol ) and I like simple things and what is more simple than to react to the price !!!??? On the other hand yes, your fundamental analysis is realy great and this is why I follow you lol P.S. Gone are the days I had the patience and nerves to do my own fundamental analysis lol All the best and trade well!!!
I like simple things too ...and I hate fundamentals.
But now it's a good example that fundamentals are useful.
If you don't understand what are the economical grounds for a rate rising you miss the fact that Hourly Average Earnings beats the almighty NFP (edit: in some particular situations!!!)
Member
  • #1,095,997
  • Mar 13, 2017 1:59am Mar 13, 2017 1:59am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Yeap DAX, SP500, DJ they all surged lately. (reversed historical correlation with the ccy) The signal comes fron the US economy stronger on good macro indicators printings and the ECB hawkish on visible improving euro economy. It's a growing euphoria all over the charts. And it's possible that the hike on Wednesday might not cause a mini crash of the euro, ...because euro is backed up by the ECB for the moment
Tudor, I think that the rate hike from this week's Wednesday has already been priced in and also EURO is backed up by the ECB by the germans lol ) as you say.

Regards!
  • #1,095,998
  • Mar 13, 2017 2:02am Mar 13, 2017 2:02am
sell area reached but there can be a false break up at 1.0710 for 1.0810, limit 1.0614. that is pressure still up.Take care , fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #1,095,999
  • Mar 13, 2017 2:02am Mar 13, 2017 2:02am
Good Morning !

Today's SR levels on MT4 Templates for EURO, CABLE, DAX, USDJPY & EURGBP
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #1,096,000
  • Mar 13, 2017 2:07am Mar 13, 2017 2:07am
Quoting Avir
Good Morning ! Today's SR levels on MT4 Templates for EURO, CABLE, DAX, USDJPY & EURGBP
Thx Avir!
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