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  • #1,095,921
  • Mar 12, 2017 12:30pm Mar 12, 2017 12:30pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} sorry about that. didn't mean to point at you.
naaaah I'm fine. I get a lot of shit as an analyst sometimes, don't worry
People somehow feel insecure most often, and they love others to give them a direction, a thought process, whatever.
Technical analysis is one way to do that, not more. I always point out that whenever I say a price, it is only a rough estimation of a possible zone of market reaction. Like "if it climbs, target 1.074x" (because in reality there's a Pivot cluster and an extention....) Nobody can really predict the future. Some of us just like to read (or analyse) charts..
It also gives us reason to talk more about what we all love
I did a nasty technical on my bloodpreasure weekly chart yesterday. It says: "see the doctor, the damn pills don't cut it"

But seriously, if you really want to get into it: trade naked! (the chart, not you)
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,095,922
  • Mar 12, 2017 12:33pm Mar 12, 2017 12:33pm
Quoting Teek
{quote} naaaah I'm fine. I get a lot of shit as an analyst sometimes, don't worry People somehow feel insecure most often, and they love others to give them a direction, a thought process, whatever. Technical analysis is one way to do that, not more. I always point out that whenever I say a price, it is only a rough estimation of a possible zone of market reaction. Like "if it climbs, target 1.074x" (because in reality there's a Pivot cluster and an extention....) Nobody can really predict the future. Some of us just like to read (or analyse)...
  • #1,095,923
  • Mar 12, 2017 12:39pm Mar 12, 2017 12:39pm
Quoting Teek
{quote} But seriously, if you really want to get into it: trade naked! (the chart, not you)
how did you know? but london session only.
  • #1,095,924
  • Mar 12, 2017 12:43pm Mar 12, 2017 12:43pm
Quoting KovanTrader
{quote} I sold Eur/Usd, so I would be an insanely happy man if it plummets to beneath 1.05, but frankly, I think 1.05 will hold. Thanks for your insight, cheers.
why hold if the trade is getting sour or already sour, and even tasteless. Look bail out and follow price. plummets!..do you have money to move the markets like that
  • #1,095,925
  • Mar 12, 2017 12:47pm Mar 12, 2017 12:47pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} how did you know? but london session only.
I'm a trader. That's how
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,095,926
  • Edited 1:15pm Mar 12, 2017 1:04pm | Edited 1:15pm
I have my reason why the price went up so high on Friday. But remember this. I can be quite wrong. My reason is : The sellers want to sell at the top. So rather than fighting the bull on Friday. They wanted to see how far up it went" It didn't get that far. The last minutes just gave back 30 pips gain.

I can't find any fundamental reason to go up that high. Probably 1.0650 should be ok. The bull tried to force it up. But the question is : On what ground that it should go up past 1.07? Speculation? SL hunting maybe.

Well. REMEMBER: MARKET IS UNPREDICTABLE. So use your chart. Sometimes the chart doesn't make any sense. But we don't trade on reasons. We trade on chart.
  • #1,095,927
  • Edited 1:17pm Mar 12, 2017 1:06pm | Edited 1:17pm
So The market will open soon.
Is there any opportunity to short on Monday?
I thought that the signal will rise up to the 1.074xxx point then come down cuz it needs to create the triangle but if it could break the 1.074xxx i don't know how to deal with it .

Maybe I could go for short at around 1.074xxx-1.075xxx but if it goes further than that i will just stop loss on it.
What do you guys think?

THE CHART IS FROM EUR/USD (OTC)
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  • #1,095,928
  • Mar 12, 2017 1:16pm Mar 12, 2017 1:16pm
1.0684 on bloomberg cnbc and xe...not looking good
Drawdown is more important than Account Size !
  • #1,095,929
  • Mar 12, 2017 1:31pm Mar 12, 2017 1:31pm
Quoting procrude
1.0684 on bloomberg cnbc and xe...not looking good
Not surprised.. was actually waiting for that price to trigger the retracement ....
  • #1,095,930
  • Mar 12, 2017 1:33pm Mar 12, 2017 1:33pm
Quoting frx_trader
I have my reason why the price went up so high on Friday. But remember this. I can be quite wrong. My reason is : The sellers want to sell at the top. So rather than fighting the bull on Friday. They wanted to see how far up it went" It didn't get that far. The last minutes just gave back 30 pips gain. I can't find any fundamental reason to go up that high. Probably 1.0650 should be ok. The bull tried to force it up. But the question is : On what ground that it should go up past 1.07? Speculation? SL hunting maybe. Well. REMEMBER:...
Friday reason: natural overreaction on NFP news
(damn good thing, Euro markets needed some room to breathe)

On what ground that it should go up past 1.07? Speculation?
Here is how it goes:
- retrace short (buy orders close, still running longs gets stopped which causes more short)
- orderbooks fill with short orders. This means marketmakers buy. (if someone sells, someone on the other side must buy)
- the more down it goes the better the price for marketmakers (and big guys) to buy. Many people jump on the short because they think they miss the train (big mistake!), orderbooks fill more and more with Sells, marketmakers buy more and more, the books keep filling, the price for buying gets better and better...
- when it's enough, the marketmakers execute REALLY LARGE Buy orders. Market goes up! Short get stopped, or panic and close, size scalpers take profit, more and more shorts close
- Result: higher high

This repeats a few times, until people lose interest. Then it dips down, or spikes when Marketmakers close the Buys and execute Sell orders.
This is done by Algorythms and automatic processes, made by and watched by the most intelligent nerds on the planet.
Don't fight it. Scalp it

"Know yor enemy better then your friend" - Sun Tsu
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,095,931
  • Mar 12, 2017 1:35pm Mar 12, 2017 1:35pm
Quoting Sabee
Hi all.. i am new to trading.. i was wandering if anyone can give me ur thoughts for monday and the week ahead.. do u think the euro will gain more strength?? Also how will article 50 affect eur/usd? Thanks and sorry if thats a stupid question.
Welcome to the fx trading world. My advise for you:-

1) Candlestick (characteristics, patterns and formations) is the only precise info you can use in fx technical analysis;

2) Any other indicators are lagging (some are just bs);

3) Fx = cfd (contract for difference). If you are making profit, then the other side is suffering loss (and vice versa) - it is always a 50% probability; &

4) We are all speculators - "ONLY YOUR OWN OPINION MATTERS FOR YOUR TRADING ANALYSIS/DECISION"

Happy trading
  • #1,095,932
  • Mar 12, 2017 1:49pm Mar 12, 2017 1:49pm
Quoting Teek
{quote} Friday reason: natural overreaction on NFP news (damn good thing, Euro markets needed some room to breathe) On what ground that it should go up past 1.07? Speculation? Here is how it goes: - retrace short (buy orders close, still running longs gets stopped which causes more short) - orderbooks fill with short orders. This means marketmakers buy. (if someone sells, someone on the other side must buy) - the more down it goes the better the price for marketmakers (and big guys) to buy. Many people jump on the short because they think they miss...
bingo. couldn't have said better. cheers mate.
  • #1,095,933
  • Mar 12, 2017 2:29pm Mar 12, 2017 2:29pm
In the eyes of big guys, I see for both Monday and Tuesday daily Close price will be greater than the key level 1.07299, and also Wednesday will be NO rate hike. The same, for both March and April monthly Close price will be greater than the key level 1.09322 .
I am who I am
  • #1,095,934
  • Mar 12, 2017 2:57pm Mar 12, 2017 2:57pm
Ideally it should open around 0685-0690 (trap late shorters), go up to 0720-30 during Asia and kill last/new remaining shorts before re-touch of 0630 and further up (max 0790-0810).
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  • #1,095,935
  • Mar 12, 2017 3:18pm Mar 12, 2017 3:18pm
Quoting sakisf
Part 2 of the move at rate decision (<1.0490) and then go up > 1.08x. {image}
Magnificient analysis! Really love people who get that "real look at the market" by really questioning the psychology behind prices, not just the candles. Keep it up!
Faith in the chaos
  • #1,095,936
  • Mar 12, 2017 3:31pm Mar 12, 2017 3:31pm
Happy sunday to everyone. Just wanted to share my thoughts with you and gather some opinions.

Friday at the last moments of exchange the price dropped to, 1.06700 which means we are closing our week below our resistance at 1.0677, which gives in my opinion a pretty interesting situation. Furthermore, the price moved up to 1.06997, our .382 retracement from the previous wave just before falling.
We seem to have crossed bounced from triangle bottom, broken our first resistance, but got caught in the .0677 one, this one reinforced by .382 fib retracement (not in the picture, its from our previous move).

I am not intending to trade this pair until the situation gets clearer, but I'm interested in what do you guys think about whats going on!

Nice week for everyone
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Faith in the chaos
  • #1,095,937
  • Mar 12, 2017 3:41pm Mar 12, 2017 3:41pm
Quoting sakisf
Ideally it should open around 0685-0690 (trap late shorters), go up to 0720-30 during Asia and kill last/new remaining shorts before re-touch of 0630 and further up (max 0790-0810). {image}

how long you think it would take to end the retracement? i mean the TRAP LATE SHORTERS zone

cuz i just thought that maybe we could short at the start then immediately take profit from the thread and then we could go for long and watch it rises to 0720-30

then after a long thread we could go for short again start from 0720-30 like u said. i don't know it's just my opinion. for 3 thread.

1.short
2.long
3.short
  • #1,095,938
  • Mar 12, 2017 3:51pm Mar 12, 2017 3:51pm
Quoting kittikann.s
{quote} how long you think it would take to end the retracement? i mean the TRAP LATE SHORTERS zone cuz i just thought that maybe we could short at the start then immediately take profit from the thread and then we could go for long and watch it rises to 0720-30 then after a long thread we could go for short again start from 0720-30 like u said. i don't know it's just my opinion. for 3 thread. 1.short 2.long 3.short
I don't know, time is relative. It could possibly (50-50 rule) go the other way from what I wrote. But I plan to short 0720-30, long 0630-50 if it goes my way. If it doesn't I won't enter until price is in another point of interest in my chart which will not be any of the values above.
  • #1,095,939
  • Mar 12, 2017 3:53pm Mar 12, 2017 3:53pm
Quoting Mzwandile93
EURUSD D1 {image}
awm
  • #1,095,940
  • Mar 12, 2017 3:54pm Mar 12, 2017 3:54pm
Quoting Teek
Hello traders, happy Sunday Here is my view on the EURUSD on Sunday, March 12th 2017 (closed markets, pre Asia session) Disclaimer: 1) All information is on the charts. I do not explain my detailed thought process. If you read the charts it should be clear. 2) My technical analysis is based on price action and support/resistance. Fundamentals are NOT taken into account. Don't trade my charts around Red Events. 3) All prices are indications on which I expect the market to react in a certain way. Prices in my charts are not specific targets...
awm
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