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  • #1,095,901
  • Edited 8:14am Mar 12, 2017 7:53am | Edited 8:14am
Quoting KovanTrader
{quote} I sold Eur/Usd, so I would be an insanely happy man if it plummets to beneath 1.05, but frankly, I think 1.05 will hold. Thanks for your insight, cheers.
My analysis says it will. (see range on D1 chart)
My opinion says: I don't have an opinion. I trade it when I see it.
Good luck

(edited my previous post, added some explanation )
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,095,902
  • Mar 12, 2017 8:38am Mar 12, 2017 8:38am
Drawdown is more important than Account Size !
  • #1,095,903
  • Mar 12, 2017 8:59am Mar 12, 2017 8:59am
will the start from down or up from last week closing ?
Shahadat Hossain
  • #1,095,904
  • Mar 12, 2017 9:16am Mar 12, 2017 9:16am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} First chart looks reasonable with possible hikes deal Down to D and later go like rocket to close some gaps higher
I don't think it rockets, but there will be more spikes in both directions. It's a very juicy setup for marketmakers.
The overlaying downtrend is not broken, the current upmove is nothing but a spike caused by news and I see the market fall into range again and (sooner or later) plummit....
I wouldn't look for longtime trades on this setup anytime soon.
Scalping is the way to go here. The short "countertrend" scalps (talking H1 here) are good RR and the upspikes remain unpredictable. That's why I said: the C leg is not complete yet and I'd stay very careful with long targets. My 1.074 is a rough estimation (backed by technical analysis), but it can spike higher before we break into range again. I'd stay careful and I don't want to buy late up there.
Also, it will be very intersting to see what it looks like after Asia session. Usualy it's dead, but the friday close is way too interesting to be boring.

I missed the Short entry late friday evening (didn't take it because too late in the evening).
I highly advise to NOT jump on the current short on Asia open. Let it close and wait. It will move up into the yellows, make a slightly new high and deliver another Short(Scalp) entry. These are the ones I take (immediatly at "Exhaustion Candle" close. (I'll post the scalps that I take on this setup )
But that's just me. Stay green
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,095,905
  • Mar 12, 2017 9:36am Mar 12, 2017 9:36am
Draghi speaks tomorrow...what do you guys think will be the impact on eur/usd?

Cheers.
  • #1,095,906
  • Mar 12, 2017 9:38am Mar 12, 2017 9:38am
Quoting Teek
{quote} My analysis says it will. (see range on D1 chart) My opinion says: I don't have an opinion. I trade it when I see it. Good luck (edited my previous post, added some explanation )
I hope it spikes down fast during Asian session so I can close my shorts and have an early day.
  • #1,095,907
  • Mar 12, 2017 10:44am Mar 12, 2017 10:44am
EUR/USD has pushed really high in last couple of days before the closing, the major happening belong to the latest comments by Draghi about Rate hike, its likely that the pair will remain in same trend, but with rate hike ahead for Dollar, it will be interesting where it goes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,095,908
  • Mar 12, 2017 10:50am Mar 12, 2017 10:50am
Quoting Don96
{quote} So if you can determine the momentum strength why not share it ? Don't get me wrong I'm not saying I'm.right and your wrong. I'm just saying momentum could look strong as ever but it only takes one spot to reverse it all and trap most...why couldn't it have been where the other guy pointed to... (as an example) it's easy to say after its already happened
Quoting pkimnyc
Despite some may call it bs buy, all up moves been supported by news events and down moves were not. It may be interesting to think about where the price is parked atm. Tomorrow, NFP: price may dip a little bit to revisit 0550 area then spike up again. Or, we just continue north (highly unlikely) to retest the 0640 then reverse? Or, I could be dead wrong and we just continue down, screw the nfp? (I've been wrong before). Currently, I'm looking at momentum on all higher tfs pointing north. Just my 2c.
I did share. gave you heads up.
Did it help you? I don't think so.
That's one of the reasons I've been staying away from here.
/r
  • #1,095,909
  • Mar 12, 2017 11:29am Mar 12, 2017 11:29am
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} {quote} I did share. gave you heads up. Did it help you? I don't think so. That's one of the reasons I've been staying away from here. /r
good point. weird that not many see a clear HS in DXY daily as well.
  • #1,095,910
  • Mar 12, 2017 11:45am Mar 12, 2017 11:45am
I have a question.... what if the rate is not hiked....? EURUD will shoot up?
Drawdown is more important than Account Size !
  • #1,095,911
  • Mar 12, 2017 11:50am Mar 12, 2017 11:50am
Quoting Sabee
Hi all.. i am new to trading.. i was wandering if anyone can give me ur thoughts for monday and the week ahead.. do u think the euro will gain more strength?? Also how will article 50 affect eur/usd? Thanks and sorry if thats a stupid question.
Welcome to forex world.
straight answer to your question: no one knows.

my advice to you?
don't try to predict the future.
go over each threads, pick up a few ideas you can. study them (it will take years to make it into your own, so be patient.)
stay away from forum activity (it will confuse the lights out of you.)
try to identify the tradable set ups.
/r
  • #1,095,912
  • Mar 12, 2017 11:51am Mar 12, 2017 11:51am
Quoting procrude
I have a question.... what if the rate is not hiked....? EURUD will shoot up?
don't ask questions, just go short, that's been the theme of this thread lately. )))
  • #1,095,913
  • Mar 12, 2017 11:52am Mar 12, 2017 11:52am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} don't ask questions, just go short, that's been the theme of this thread lately. )))
lol. very true.
/r
  • #1,095,914
  • Mar 12, 2017 11:52am Mar 12, 2017 11:52am
Quoting pkimnyc
go over each threads, pick up a few ideas you can. stay away from forum activity (it will confuse the lights out of you.)
How do you go to threads but stay away from forum activity?
  • #1,095,915
  • Edited 12:13pm Mar 12, 2017 11:56am | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting procrude
I have a question.... what if the rate is not hiked....? EURUD will shoot up?
No
There's more to it than just a rate hike. But I'm not too much into Fundamentals. Not that I wouldn't understand it, but it's just all too unpredictable. (in my opinion).
The current "Spike" on the Euro Markets isn't even a proper breakout. It's a small blip on the Daily, the market did'nt even break it's range yet, it just pulled towards the top of it's range, on a NFP friday, that's all.
Nothing to get too exited about and the technical tendency is still unbroken > down.
By now, there is no (technical) reason to believe it will break next week.
I think I am one of the few peeps who DON't expect a rate hike, but for my trading it doesn't make a difference.
But honestly, whatever they do with the rate and whatever it causes on the markets, I couldn't care less. I trade it when I see it, or not at all.
I feel quite comfortable with my -don't trade red flag events- rule.
I'm a single trader guy picking breadcrumps on a giant cake, not a hedgefund manager. I simply stay out of the kitchen when it gets too hot

BTW, here's a tip:
If you are new to trading Forex markets, or trading in general: Focus on one thing only --> Candlesticks
Trade the naked chart, all you need to see is on it. Check the calender every day, stay away around red flag events, and your good.
Whatever you do, don't try to base your trading decisions on mere "what if". Trade what is actualy there, and that's the price action.
Candlesticks... learn them, love them.
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,095,916
  • Mar 12, 2017 11:58am Mar 12, 2017 11:58am
Quoting KovanTrader
{quote} How do you go to threads but stay away from forum activity?
easy.
getting the idea is to learn how to read price and how to read indicators.
knowing when to pull the trigger and when to exit (hardest part: this has to be done by yourself. it can't be taught).

staying away: ex. "ill be shorting every 20 pips or so...", "we are at the top", "got out at be", "wave 12345678 or wave abcd.. wxyz..., if not then we go yati yata ya...." etc.
  • #1,095,917
  • Mar 12, 2017 12:07pm Mar 12, 2017 12:07pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} easy. getting the idea is to learn how to read price and how to read indicators. knowing when to pull the trigger and when to exit (hardest part: this has to be done by yourself. it can't be taught). staying away: ex. "ill be shorting every 20 pips or so...", "we are at the top", "got out at be", "wave 12345678 or wave abcd.. wxyz..., if not then we go yati yata ya...." etc.
Too true, for me reading price is #1. All indicators lag. If one wants to use indicators they best know what each indicator means as you change through different time frames. If not it's best you don't use indicators.

Although having a mechanical system will determine if you have a "real" edge. As time passes and if they are all consistently profitable I believe all the top pros are mostly all discretionary when it gets to entry and exits.
  • #1,095,918
  • Mar 12, 2017 12:09pm Mar 12, 2017 12:09pm
Quoting wukatrades
{quote} Too true, for me reading price is #1. All indicators lag. If one wants to use indicators they best know what each indicator means as you change through different time frames. If not it's best you don't use indicators. Although having a mechanical system will determine if you have a "real" edge. As time passes and if they are all consistently profitable I believe all the top pros are mostly all discretionary when it gets to entry and exits.
thank you for pointing that out.
forgot about that one. gotta know how to put pieces together.
/r
  • #1,095,919
  • Edited 12:59pm Mar 12, 2017 12:15pm | Edited 12:59pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} easy. getting the idea is to learn how to read price and how to read indicators. knowing when to pull the trigger and when to exit (hardest part: this has to be done by yourself. it can't be taught). staying away: ex. "ill be shorting every 20 pips or so...", "we are at the top", "got out at be", "wave 12345678 or wave abcd.. wxyz..., if not then we go yati yata ya...." etc.
I agree, but it is part of my work to say things like the yati yata ya
The charts I post look fancy, but I actualy trade (almost) naked.
I try different things from time to time, but whenever I do, I fail, and I always come back to my methodical H1 scalping on price action.

My actual trading charts look like this
The lines are Pivots, I watch 3 days back on the H1, not more. (I trade the candles NOT the lines) A candlecountdown with an alarm for the "DING, new candle in 3 Minutes, come to your Desk!" and for whatever reason I like to see the Volume.
Add some Fibs to it. That's all
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,095,920
  • Mar 12, 2017 12:17pm Mar 12, 2017 12:17pm
Quoting Teek
{quote} I agree, but it is part of my work to say things like the yati yata ya
sorry about that.
didn't mean to point at you.
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