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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #64,461
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:45am Mar 10, 2017 3:45am
Quoting SunTrader
PA has been corrective since mid Dec and impulsive since beginning of March. I wouldn't be too quick to say down ... yet. See what develops after NFP at least.
I called it short some time ago now and have scaled and added since...Chart attached from earlier this year with very clear arrow targeting my take profit target.

I'm scaling shorts back in now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1.png Size: 39 KB
  • #64,462
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:03am Mar 10, 2017 4:03am
Quoting FXClarity
{quote} I called it short some time ago now and have scaled and added since...Chart attached from earlier this year with very clear arrow targeting my take profit target. I'm scaling shorts back in now. {image}
That's a rather risky assessment. The only thing that can give a sell in the short term is bad nfp or wage growth, or, some event that gives a risk off sentiment. There will be profit taking but not to the levels you are looking at
  • #64,463
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:16am Mar 10, 2017 4:16am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} That's a rather risky assessment. The only thing that can give a sell in the short term is bad nfp or wage growth, or, some event that gives a risk off sentiment. There will be profit taking but not to the levels you are looking at

..That's your opinion - mine is different.
  • #64,464
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:25am Mar 10, 2017 4:25am
Quoting FXClarity
{quote} ..That's your opinion - mine is different.
are you holding ur shorts from 117 and still adding without close on last low ? or this is fresh shorts from 115 ( now ) ?

i just wondering ... on the edge of nfp and rate hike , anything could happen ,

waiting for trump twitter for early hint like on ADP Non-Farm Employment Change , free pips
  • #64,465
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:39am Mar 10, 2017 4:39am
Quoting manixramz
{quote} are you holding ur shorts from 117 and still adding without close on last low ? or this is fresh shorts from 115 ( now ) ? i just wondering ... on the edge of nfp and rate hike , anything could happen , waiting for trump twitter for early hint like on ADP Non-Farm Employment Change , free pips
I trade into larger swings and scale in and out en route - I don't attempt to call exact price turning points but allow myself a little more flexibility once I have the direction nailed down.

With regards to NFP..I fail to see what all the fuss is with it nowadays..years back I saw NFP trigger moves that would make your toes curl..Nowadays its rather dull.
  • #64,466
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:42am Mar 10, 2017 4:42am
Nfp has been somewhat dull since low rates but with global economy improving and USA specifically, Nfp is again important. The fed watches it so why would it ever be unimportant
  • #64,467
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:44am Mar 10, 2017 4:44am
Quoting FXClarity
{quote} I trade into larger swings and scale in and out en route - I don't attempt to call exact price turning points but allow myself a little more flexibility once I have the direction nailed down. With regards to NFP..I fail to see what all the fuss is with it nowadays..years back I saw NFP trigger moves that would make your toes curl..Nowadays its rather dull.
best of luck
  • #64,468
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:45am Mar 10, 2017 4:45am
You've misquoted me - I never wrote it was unimportant.

In all the years I've traded, NFP has always been the big calendar grabber - but in more recent years it has been a non-event on the whole.

Anyway. I've got work to do.

Wish you all well with your trading.
  • #64,469
  • Mar 10, 2017 5:06am Mar 10, 2017 5:06am
Well my stops got taken on the yen and my longs triggered. I closed some of them now i'm in no mood for guessing, i plan to buy UJ and EJ on the next retrace and tp 116 on uj
  • #64,470
  • Mar 10, 2017 6:12am Mar 10, 2017 6:12am
Rather looking like it's ready to drop now - but no conviction yet.
  • #64,471
  • Mar 10, 2017 6:23am Mar 10, 2017 6:23am
Quoting FXClarity
You've misquoted me - I never wrote it was unimportant. In all the years I've traded, NFP has always been the big calendar grabber - but in more recent years it has been a non-event on the whole. Anyway. I've got work to do. Wish you all well with your trading.
how long you been trading?
  • #64,472
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:02am Mar 10, 2017 7:02am
Actually fxclarity is quite right about the NFP last few months its not like it used to be. Lots of spikes and no real movement. Lets see what happens today.
  • #64,473
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:07am Mar 10, 2017 7:07am
Long life to UJ

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj weekly.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #64,474
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:14am Mar 10, 2017 7:14am
USD/JPY had a strong momentum to the upside this week. Let's see how the one goes, i'm expecting the pair to depreciate to levels below 113.00.
  • #64,475
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:38am Mar 10, 2017 7:38am
Quoting FXClarity
{quote} I trade into larger swings and scale in and out en route - I don't attempt to call exact price turning points but allow myself a little more flexibility once I have the direction nailed down. With regards to NFP..I fail to see what all the fuss is with it nowadays..years back I saw NFP trigger moves that would make your toes curl..Nowadays its rather dull.

hows that nfp doing for you?
  • #64,476
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:50am Mar 10, 2017 7:50am
there are huge vanilla option expires today so don't expect much either way unless some big players have a hand

USDJPY: 114.00 (USD 3.1bln) 114.50 (660m) 114.80 (410m) 115.00 (1.6bln) 115.20 (575m) 115.45-50 (1.4bln) 115.75 (300m) 116.00 (1.48bln)
  • #64,477
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:52am Mar 10, 2017 7:52am
Quoting FXClarity
{quote} I called it short some time ago now and have scaled and added since...
Based on what?
  • #64,478
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:59am Mar 10, 2017 7:59am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Based on what?
Based on technical levels and a massive overshoot in the pair leading into year end.

The chart I've posted was posted live in this thread at the time as I wanted to share the opportunity with other traders..since then UJ dropped several hundred pips..

I've done this with other set ups here over the past year but I don't tend to spend much time here nowadays.

Wish you all well..
  • #64,479
  • Mar 10, 2017 8:04am Mar 10, 2017 8:04am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} hows that nfp doing for you?
So far its slopped around about 40 pips in the 30 mins since the release... proving my point - NFP is a lot of hype nowadays.

Going back a few years I've seen it move currencies 100's of pips in less than 5mins.

Technically a lot of sellers were awaiting the gap fill..
  • #64,480
  • Mar 10, 2017 8:12am Mar 10, 2017 8:12am
Quoting FXClarity
{quote} So far its slopped around about 40 pips in the 30 mins since the release... proving my point - NFP is a lot of hype nowadays. Going back a few years I've seen it move currencies 100's of pips in less than 5mins. Technically a lot of sellers were awaiting the gap fill..
going back a few years there were definitely more participants in the market - many have since gone bust
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