{quote} I have no idea but sakis had a chart I reposted, 115.60 probably next as it seems. So you do use large stops time to time??
Has 2 -5.5 last night haven't tried again since
- #1,095,561
- Mar 10, 2017 3:17am Mar 10, 2017 3:17am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 7,803 Posts
Has 2 -5.5 last night haven't tried again since
- #1,095,562
- Mar 10, 2017 3:19am Mar 10, 2017 3:19am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,260 Posts
Member
- #1,095,564
- Mar 10, 2017 3:23am Mar 10, 2017 3:23am
Yesterday's D1 chart painted a what looks like an engulfing candle although it has a long upper wick suggesting a loss of momentum; however todays candle is looking [as I write] strong as D1 price tapers towards the apex of a Symmetrical Triangle. All EMAs remain bearish so no commitment from me in the D1 TF.
The H4 chart is getting more interesting... Price Action is challenging the 1.061 resistance zone; the 20 & 50 EMAs are turning bullish and Price has penetrated the 200 EMA.
The H1 chart ... Price Action looks strong having pushed through two trend lines since yesterday's consolidation [yellow]; all EMAs are turning Bullish. Will Price break through resistance ?
I plan to stand aside today. For next week I would like to see the following 1)price breach and open above 1.061 zone in the H1 TF 2) the 20&50 EMA cross in the H4 TF. Should those two things happen I would take a tentative long at half my risk with the objective of adding to the position on a bullish break out from the Symmetrical triangle in D1. A lot to ask for I guess. However, that may give me a TP objective for close to 1.065 [yellow] on the D1 chart and in the long term 1.076? [second yellow bar]. Of course all of the above may just be wishful thinking...
Have a great weekend
awm
The H4 chart is getting more interesting... Price Action is challenging the 1.061 resistance zone; the 20 & 50 EMAs are turning bullish and Price has penetrated the 200 EMA.
The H1 chart ... Price Action looks strong having pushed through two trend lines since yesterday's consolidation [yellow]; all EMAs are turning Bullish. Will Price break through resistance ?
I plan to stand aside today. For next week I would like to see the following 1)price breach and open above 1.061 zone in the H1 TF 2) the 20&50 EMA cross in the H4 TF. Should those two things happen I would take a tentative long at half my risk with the objective of adding to the position on a bullish break out from the Symmetrical triangle in D1. A lot to ask for I guess. However, that may give me a TP objective for close to 1.065 [yellow] on the D1 chart and in the long term 1.076? [second yellow bar]. Of course all of the above may just be wishful thinking...
Have a great weekend
awm
- #1,095,567
- Mar 10, 2017 3:31am Mar 10, 2017 3:31am
- Joined Aug 2016 | Status: Trader | 10,427 Posts
Have couple longs from 1.058 and 1.054. TP = 1.051.
- #1,095,568
- Mar 10, 2017 3:39am Mar 10, 2017 3:39am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,260 Posts
{quote} I have the same. This upmove was only to kill some shorts positions. Stronge NFP and we go to below 1.05. A big spike up and go full short.
About the NFP today, ....well, from my experience and on the current data I would expect 215k - 220k (200k estimated)
and that will come bad for the euro
Disclaimer: For God sake, don't trade on that! I don't even trade it myself!
Member
- #1,095,570
- Mar 10, 2017 3:43am Mar 10, 2017 3:43am
- Joined Nov 2015 | Status: Trader | 747 Posts
IF U DONT KNOW DOES NOT MEAN IT DOES NOT EXIST
- #1,095,573
- Mar 10, 2017 4:03am Mar 10, 2017 4:03am
- Joined Nov 2015 | Status: Trader | 747 Posts
IF U DONT KNOW DOES NOT MEAN IT DOES NOT EXIST
- #1,095,575
- Mar 10, 2017 4:09am Mar 10, 2017 4:09am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Moving forward | 2,138 Posts
Too much tension on the thread, time to take a break. Useless discussions without any pause. Good luck everyone.
Agree, but you can simply not to involve yourself into useless discussions
Take care!
Consistency will bring everything...Be good.
100% Is The Target v.1 All Time Return:
-95.4%
- #1,095,576
- Edited 4:32am Mar 10, 2017 4:19am | Edited 4:32am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,260 Posts
Too much tension on the thread, time to take a break. Useless discussions without any pause. Good luck everyone.
Member
- #1,095,577
- Edited 5:44am Mar 10, 2017 4:22am | Edited 5:44am
- Joined Feb 2017 | Status: pippin' | 1,139 Posts
We do have some "new" traders in here and some of them try to understand or learn why some of us have an "might move up, might come down" point of view. Some of us (we all should be) are here to learn and to understand. I am bored because I don't trade, so I share some of my thoughts here.
Again, I do NOT claim to "be right".
Here is my reasoning, the WHY behind my "stay away and don't trade outbreaks like these"
So, here is what might happen today (how outbreak markets move and why, in 4 simple steps):
Setup: Today the market is facing a bullish outbreak and I predicted a killer whipsaw
Prediction: massive "whipsaw" (very fast spike up/ spike down) around NFP news
Step 1: bullish outbreak, supported by news.
(market overreacts around news. "small" hedgefunds and "big" retail traders make (or lose) a lot of money here with large-size-scalps based on fundamental analysis. This creates the noise)
Step 2: everyone and their mamas will jump on it and BUY
(when everyone buys and nobody sells, the market spikes, then slows and spikes right back because no sellers. You can see this on the shorter timeframes)
Step 3.1: Brokers Algorythms see the orderbooks and think "ok let's kill some stops with short "correction moves" when enough orders are triggerd"
(short "counterspikes" to kill tight/trailing stops. Especialy brokers with dealingdesk do this a lot, all of them do it on the short timeframes, all the time. This is how they hedge their spreads. Yes it's a ripoff and no there is nothing you can do about it. Accept reality, you are dealing with brokers, brokers are bitches, all of them. Your borker is NEVER your friend!)
Step 3.2: Big guys (marketmaker banks and really large hedgefunds) see the breakout and the (massively spoofed) orderbooks and think "ok.. let's kill them"
They SELL -> this moves the market against you
(their Algorythms do nothing else but watch the orderbooks fill and go for the kill when the time is right. If everyone buys, someone must sell, right? This is how they make money. The modern marketmaker tradingdesk of a big bank is nothing but a bunch of "Quants" watching their Algorythms do the work, they don't physicly trade. These guys don't lose, no matter what.)
Step 4: Whipsaw complete. By now you have seen a spike up (outbreak) and spike down (pullback)
(this is extremely difficult to trade. You are up against Algorythms and you can not beat them. Stay away from outbreaks)
Conclusion: if you, the small fish retail trader, trade this bullish outbreak, on NFP friday, god help you.
Because if you work with "reasonable orders and reasonable stops" on outbreaks like this, you will get killed.
Warning: Stay away! Take the short counter-scalps before news, then wait until it calms down, if you have to trade no matter what...
It's friday, enjoy some sunlight and stay green.
Green is good, green is smart.
You are a trader. Your jiob is not to predict the future. Your job is to be green. Your job is to build capital.
Be green and smart, focus on the job
Disclaimer: I don't give a shit about being right or wrong or if you like me or not. who cares
edit: added a chart. Picture say more than words
edit 2: please see this post with a perfect chart explanation: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...53#post9649753
Again, I do NOT claim to "be right".
Here is my reasoning, the WHY behind my "stay away and don't trade outbreaks like these"
So, here is what might happen today (how outbreak markets move and why, in 4 simple steps):
Setup: Today the market is facing a bullish outbreak and I predicted a killer whipsaw
Prediction: massive "whipsaw" (very fast spike up/ spike down) around NFP news
Step 1: bullish outbreak, supported by news.
(market overreacts around news. "small" hedgefunds and "big" retail traders make (or lose) a lot of money here with large-size-scalps based on fundamental analysis. This creates the noise)
Step 2: everyone and their mamas will jump on it and BUY
(when everyone buys and nobody sells, the market spikes, then slows and spikes right back because no sellers. You can see this on the shorter timeframes)
Step 3.1: Brokers Algorythms see the orderbooks and think "ok let's kill some stops with short "correction moves" when enough orders are triggerd"
(short "counterspikes" to kill tight/trailing stops. Especialy brokers with dealingdesk do this a lot, all of them do it on the short timeframes, all the time. This is how they hedge their spreads. Yes it's a ripoff and no there is nothing you can do about it. Accept reality, you are dealing with brokers, brokers are bitches, all of them. Your borker is NEVER your friend!)
Step 3.2: Big guys (marketmaker banks and really large hedgefunds) see the breakout and the (massively spoofed) orderbooks and think "ok.. let's kill them"
They SELL -> this moves the market against you
(their Algorythms do nothing else but watch the orderbooks fill and go for the kill when the time is right. If everyone buys, someone must sell, right? This is how they make money. The modern marketmaker tradingdesk of a big bank is nothing but a bunch of "Quants" watching their Algorythms do the work, they don't physicly trade. These guys don't lose, no matter what.)
Step 4: Whipsaw complete. By now you have seen a spike up (outbreak) and spike down (pullback)
(this is extremely difficult to trade. You are up against Algorythms and you can not beat them. Stay away from outbreaks)
Conclusion: if you, the small fish retail trader, trade this bullish outbreak, on NFP friday, god help you.
Because if you work with "reasonable orders and reasonable stops" on outbreaks like this, you will get killed.
Warning: Stay away! Take the short counter-scalps before news, then wait until it calms down, if you have to trade no matter what...
It's friday, enjoy some sunlight and stay green.
Green is good, green is smart.
You are a trader. Your jiob is not to predict the future. Your job is to be green. Your job is to build capital.
Be green and smart, focus on the job
Disclaimer: I don't give a shit about being right or wrong or if you like me or not. who cares
edit: added a chart. Picture say more than words
edit 2: please see this post with a perfect chart explanation: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...53#post9649753
you are not expected to understand this
- #1,095,578
- Mar 10, 2017 4:24am Mar 10, 2017 4:24am
- Joined Aug 2016 | Status: Trader | 10,427 Posts
Don't forget , the visit of Angela to Donald..... She has been accused for curr. manipulation. [Lowering the value of E.] Preparing her apology she undid partly the weakness and changed it to strength. During her stay in Washington she will be told what levels she should keep.... There will be some kind of aggreement, as for the levels to be played the next months. These are the only fundamentals to have in mind .
and don't bug my buddy , cause I get irritated ...
and don't bug my buddy , cause I get irritated ...
- #1,095,579
- Mar 10, 2017 4:27am Mar 10, 2017 4:27am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2016 | 590 Posts
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
