News trading discussion - continuation

just to keep u bust wondering

if u are followind PLS EXIT JPY PAIRS

Great weekend to everyone.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

15/03. The meeting FOMC. The probability of increasing rates of 65%.

The probability of increasing interest rates the US Fed's March 15 was 65% (+ 40%)
More recently, the markets were not confident in raising interest rates Fedrezom in March, but at the moment, not without the participation of the Federal Reserve, the probability of such an event has jumped to 65%!

Perhaps it all began with a speech by Janet Yellen: January 18, she made it clear that «it" makes sense "for the U.S. central bank to gradually lift interest rates», that is treated as nothing but a "gradual increase in the interest rate makes sense." According to her presentation of ideas, against the background of strengthening the inflation and labor market development the issue of increasing interest rates naturally relevant.

Recall that in December 2016, the FOMC went on the expected increase in interest rates, its range was extended with 0.25% -0.5% to 0.5% -0.75% (in other words, the rate increased by 0.25 %). Earlier this year, US political uncertainty and instability in the European (which is only Brexit) drove markets lower their forecasts with three interest rate rises in 2017 to 1-2 increases.

Forecast to increase 1-2 FOMC rate remained topical until Yellen speech, but gradually returned to the original three on the background of constantly-optimistic statements by the Fed. The key ones are:

According to statements made by Powell (Fed) decision to raise interest rates in March, it remains relevant and possible. Of the same opinion, and Harker (FRS).

Dudley (FRS) for the rate hike.

Harker (Fed) sees three rate hikes in 2017.

Rozengrin (FRS) to the increase in interest rates, regardless of market expectations.

Kaplan (Fed) will soon raise interest rates rather late.

But the real killer for the competitors of the dollar began to comments from Dudley who surprised the markets appeared on CNN with a statement of the type "I would like to raise interest rates in the near future." It turned out to be the final interview summary for the market, which is finalized and expectations into a single figure.

The dollar gained two and a half pieces exactly two days.

A CME Group established a 65% chance to increase the interest rate on March 15

[Added 2.03] The mite introduced and Brainard, probably, of which, up to this point you have not even heard of, although it is a member of the Board of the Federal Reserve (Board Members). In a statement, Brainard said the stabilization of inflation and the need for a gradual increase in rates since the Fed's target levels set for indicators of inflation and the labor market is almost reached.

We will continue to monitor the chances increase FOMC rate this article. We strongly recommend you not to miss this event March 15th. Many traders will trade event.

Tuesday
5:30
07/03/17
AU Interest HOT!
(AU Cash Rate), Australia, the AUDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 55.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.

Wednesday
15:15
03/08/17
US ADP Number of employed
(US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change), US, USDJPY
The average response when triggers trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding.

Wednesday
17:30
03/08/17
US Oil and oil products reserves
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
The average reaction when triggers trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability of bidding.

Hi vvFish,

Do you have other website for reference for fundamental analysis besides Forexfactory.com like for breaking news with high impact and the news maybe not listed in economic calender here in forexfactory ?

MK.

Hi vvFish,

Do you have other website for reference for fundamental analysis besides Forexfactory.com like for breaking news with high impact and the news maybe not listed in economic calender here in forexfactory ?

MK.
no

Thursday
14:45
03/09/17
2 New comments
EU Minimum interest rate of securities
(EU Minimum Bid Rate), EU, EURUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability of bidding.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

You could already notice that the rush around the ECB meeting is, as never before, quite high. The whole secret lies in the press conference of Mario Draghi: the markets are eager to hear the deadlines for curtailing the stimulus program of the Central Bank.

Analysts do not intend to change the interest rates of the Bank, but at the same time they are concerned about the growth of European inflation above 2% (although at the same time, the basic CPI remains below 1%), which suggests certain thoughts about the proposed change in the monetary policy of the bank.

In December, the ECB was already driving the market crazy by the fact that it simultaneously extended the QE stimulus program, but also reduced its volume. Thus, the market did not fully understand - in fact, the so-called tapering (folding) began.
Eventually. At the time of publication of the interest rate, it is on the figures that everything can turn out to be quite "yellow" and quiet, since the rates (and there are three of them) are more likely to remain unchanged:

- Maintain Main Refinancing Rate at 0.00%
- Maintains Deposit Rate at -0.40%
- Maintain Marginal Lending Rates at 0.25%

The first impact on the quotes may be accompanying protocols, in which, despite the stability of interest rates, there may be changes in inflation expectations. It is rumored that the ECB's expectations for inflation have increased.

Mario Draghi will be the second and the main blow. Each of his words this time will be further studied by the markets at a press conference, which will take place 45 minutes after the decision. This is where the main game of this Thursday will be held.

Thursday
5:30 pm
03/09/17
US Natural gas reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), USA, #NG
The average response when triggers trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability of bidding.

Friday
09:00
10.03.17
NO Core of the consumer price index
(NO Core CPI), Norway, EURNOK
The average response when triggers trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability of bidding.

Friday
11:30
10.03.17
GB Industrial production
(GB Industrial Production), England, GBPUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability of bidding.

Friday
15:30
10.03.17
US The number of employed outside of agriculture HOT!
(US Non-Farm Employment Change), USA, USDJPY
The average response when triggers trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability of bidding.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Last time it was tough (about February): Everything happened against the background of the conflict with the data on wages and, basically, on the revision of publication of their data. Conflict is an everyday affair for Non-Farm Employment Change.
The risks for this report are always the same, but, that is, the release of this indicator is always accompanied by the probability of conflict.
Since, last time, the percentage unemployment still climbed to a distance of 0.2% to the barrier 5.0% (4.8% fact), it is worthwhile again to pay attention to it.
There is also a risk from the revised data of the previous release, both for the NFP, and as February showed, and to review the level of pay growth.
Nevertheless, the predecessors or rather the precursors of Non-Farm Employment Change hint at the probabilities of an optimistic scenario.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed an estimated increase of 298K against the forecasted 185K. Although the employment component of ISM Manufacturing PMI indicates some slowdown (54.2 versus the previous 56.1), nevertheless remains above the optimism line of 50 basis points. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI opposite with growth: Employment 55.2 vs 54.7
Some doubt overtakes the position of the trading pair USDJPY, and even the dollar as a whole: it would be better if he went down from extremes to bidding on NFP.
The probability of an interest rate increase (to the FOMC next week!) Remains seriously high, the markets have almost come to terms with the fact that the rate will be raised on March 15.
It is worth watching the state of the market in addition, until the publication of the farm. Select any of the "pleasant" scenarios difficult:
- On the one hand, the markets are almost sure of the success of the FOMC, but the pair is quite a row to the psychological barriers, in the case of the above forecasts, optimism is unlikely to be even higher - there is a risk that such NFP data will be accepted as "due".
- on the other hand, too much optimism to seriously take the labor market data below the forecast.
Watching ....

Great weekend to everyone.