Focus only on what truly matters!
- #1,095,301
- Mar 9, 2017 2:21am Mar 9, 2017 2:21am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,304 Posts | Online Now
- #1,095,302
- Mar 9, 2017 2:23am Mar 9, 2017 2:23am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,259 Posts
{quote} You posted a strong BEARISH conviction for the next 4 days. Now it will be an honor for me to see how this one plays out.
And I'll respect your bullish view as long it is argumentated.
We don't have to be arrogant if we have different opinions ...well, I can allow myself to tease only my friends here
Member
- #1,095,303
- Mar 9, 2017 2:26am Mar 9, 2017 2:26am
Reading some very interesting views on TA in the last few pages... Looking at the EURUSD from a Price Action view point and starting with the D1 TF we have a Bullish trend line connecting the extreme low of 1.03398 to higher lows around 1.04945; it looks like this line will be tested again today. Currently the 20 and 50 EMAs are bearish in this TF but those periods are not so responsive so act as a guide only. Price Action is significantly under the 200 EMA so [strictly speaking] the pair remain bearish in the longer TF.
Turning to the H4: Price Action is trading within a wide range; yesterday saw support tested in the area of 1.05328 and as I look at the chart this morning [London] the candle formation looks set for a bullish retracement off the support level currently printing what may be a large Engulfing candle. My chart has a bearish trend line [red] that I would like to see breached before taking a long position with a TP near the range resistance 1.06153.
The H1 chart gives me a much clearer view of PA at the support level, the four candle pattern tell me that there is some fight between supply and demand here! This is convincing me that waiting for a trend line breach is the right course of action...
Lets see what happens; if there is a breach I will open a long trade.
awm 
Turning to the H4: Price Action is trading within a wide range; yesterday saw support tested in the area of 1.05328 and as I look at the chart this morning [London] the candle formation looks set for a bullish retracement off the support level currently printing what may be a large Engulfing candle. My chart has a bearish trend line [red] that I would like to see breached before taking a long position with a TP near the range resistance 1.06153.
The H1 chart gives me a much clearer view of PA at the support level, the four candle pattern tell me that there is some fight between supply and demand here! This is convincing me that waiting for a trend line breach is the right course of action...
Lets see what happens; if there is a breach I will open a long trade.
awm
- #1,095,304
- Mar 9, 2017 2:32am Mar 9, 2017 2:32am
- Joined Feb 2017 | Status: pippin' | 1,139 Posts
Interesting situation.
London open caused some bullish momentum, but it looks weak!
I have a long signal that is in line with the 78.6 retracement and in line with S1 pivot.
BUT, 61.8% retracement + Pivot block it.
To take the long I'd wait for candleclose on the H1. The shorter timeframes already look weak on this "breakout".
For now, it still is a fake bullish breakout, caused by the morning open momentum.
I wait for candleclose above EMA20. RSI looks ok so far, but we need the close above the 50% on the RSI and avove the EMA20, and even then it's a shaky position.
It's a signal that I rather don't take... yet....
Also, it does not give a good RR! Ask me in 30 minutes if I can hold myself back and not trade the shitty fail signal that I see.
My soul intention says: "stay out, I don't want this"
Chart:
London open caused some bullish momentum, but it looks weak!
I have a long signal that is in line with the 78.6 retracement and in line with S1 pivot.
BUT, 61.8% retracement + Pivot block it.
To take the long I'd wait for candleclose on the H1. The shorter timeframes already look weak on this "breakout".
For now, it still is a fake bullish breakout, caused by the morning open momentum.
I wait for candleclose above EMA20. RSI looks ok so far, but we need the close above the 50% on the RSI and avove the EMA20, and even then it's a shaky position.
It's a signal that I rather don't take... yet....
Also, it does not give a good RR! Ask me in 30 minutes if I can hold myself back and not trade the shitty fail signal that I see.
My soul intention says: "stay out, I don't want this"
Chart:
you are not expected to understand this
- #1,095,305
- Mar 9, 2017 2:36am Mar 9, 2017 2:36am
{quote} Thank you. I have my reasons explained for my bearish view. It doesn't mean it will be played out for sure. Is just my opinion. I don't try to convince anybody. And I'll respect your bullish view as long it is argumentated. We don't have to be arrogant if we have different opinions ...well, I can allow myself to tease only my friends here
- #1,095,306
- Mar 9, 2017 2:41am Mar 9, 2017 2:41am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,304 Posts | Online Now
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #1,095,307
- Mar 9, 2017 2:41am Mar 9, 2017 2:41am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,259 Posts
Interesting situation. London open caused some bullish momentum, but it looks weak! I have a long signal that is in line with the 78.6 retracement and in line with S1 pivot. BUT, 61.8% retracement + Pivot block it. To take the long I'd wait for candleclose on the H1. The shorter timeframes already look weak on this "breakout". For now, it still is a fake bullish breakout, caused by the morning open momentum. I wait for candleclose above EMA20. RSI looks ok so far, but we need the close above the 50% on the RSI and avove the EMA20, and even then...
Member
- #1,095,309
- Mar 9, 2017 2:45am Mar 9, 2017 2:45am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,259 Posts
{quote} Yes of course. As long as stops are in place, we should be ok
Member
- #1,095,311
- Mar 9, 2017 2:50am Mar 9, 2017 2:50am
- Joined Feb 2017 | Status: pippin' | 1,139 Posts
{quote} Raph, ..."there are times to go fishing"... you have said it yourself
Already made my decision. I don't take this long.
Reason: to be a good trade, I need a RR of at least 2:1. To get this it needs to climb to 1.060. Looking at the chart and with the overall low volume trading that is expected to continue until "Goldman Sachs Best Boy" Dragi reads a paper (ECB news
), the 1.060, even the 1.058, is very optimistic, at best.Conclusion: too shaky, shitty RR, could work in the short run but longterm these trades ruin my balance. Stay out.
What I do is: let it climb (if it does) to wherever it wants and wait for the next short entry.
I look at this since days and ask myself how I could miss all these short entries and not profit from it....
I am either not there when the entries come, or I am too blind to take it. I don't know...
Anyhow, I don't take the long here.
you are not expected to understand this
- #1,095,312
- Mar 9, 2017 2:52am Mar 9, 2017 2:52am
- Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Trader | 820 Posts
Good morning Trader,
After yesterday's sitting on my A** just watching lead to my high risk entry today
!!
Entered long @ 1.0545, yes long against all odds with a 1st target @ 1.0581 and 2nd target @ 1.0621.
A day with ECB Monetary policy statement and tomorrow with the NFP numbers!!
But for now my worries is to get across the 50 and 200 moving averages.
After yesterday's sitting on my A** just watching lead to my high risk entry today
!! Entered long @ 1.0545, yes long against all odds with a 1st target @ 1.0581 and 2nd target @ 1.0621.
A day with ECB Monetary policy statement and tomorrow with the NFP numbers!!
But for now my worries is to get across the 50 and 200 moving averages.
- #1,095,313
- Mar 9, 2017 2:57am Mar 9, 2017 2:57am
- Joined May 2016 | Status: Clueless | 6,896 Posts
Good morning Trader, After yesterday's sitting on my A** just watching lead to my high risk entry today
- #1,095,315
- Mar 9, 2017 2:59am Mar 9, 2017 2:59am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 5,619 Posts
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
- #1,095,317
- Mar 9, 2017 3:04am Mar 9, 2017 3:04am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,259 Posts
{quote} Must be that wicked 1.0560 .. a break above, I am LONG
...ok, Connor and feline207 too Member
- #1,095,319
- Edited 3:33am Mar 9, 2017 3:12am | Edited 3:33am
I love days like these. So much confusion ..
Lets get this pair move up. I am short with stop at 1.0599 . Hope that will attract some buying
Target parity. Thats good R:R
Edit: SL moved to BE. Trade is 'free-risk' now
Edit2: my stop got hit... exit at be+1
Lets get this pair move up. I am short with stop at 1.0599 . Hope that will attract some buying Target parity. Thats good R:R
Edit: SL moved to BE. Trade is 'free-risk' now
Edit2: my stop got hit... exit at be+1
- #1,095,320
- Mar 9, 2017 3:15am Mar 9, 2017 3:15am
- Joined May 2016 | Status: Clueless | 6,896 Posts
{quote} Hey, you and Jon make me to change my bearish conviction from Strong to Mild
the market is so crazy T..