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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #29,881
  • Edited 3:23am Mar 7, 2017 3:04am | Edited 3:23am
Dax long 984.

Sl10, Tp 15

SL hit, -10.
  • #29,882
  • Mar 7, 2017 3:22am Mar 7, 2017 3:22am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
DAX Long @ 965 T1 +11 p x 4 lot. 1 lot to go/SL BE Targets: 11.990 (+0.25% and Weekly POC) 12.020/Close March 3 and +0.5% But not much momentum in the markets Website server is not working good. Delay {image}
right. slow motion. maybe a waste of time...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #29,883
  • Mar 7, 2017 3:25am Mar 7, 2017 3:25am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} right. slow motion. maybe a waste of time...
EU markets wait for ECB on Thursday and US markets for US job news on Friday
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #29,884
  • Mar 7, 2017 3:29am Mar 7, 2017 3:29am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} EU markets wait for ECB on Thursday and US markets on US job news on Friday
agreed. thin volume until then is likely.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #29,885
  • Mar 7, 2017 4:06am Mar 7, 2017 4:06am
two days ahead from lord draghila, here my thoughts concerning the ecb pc, esp. the purchase program:
it´s not my objective to judge the monetary policy, saying it´s bad or good. i have an opinion, but that doesn´t matter at all. the only important thing is: what can happen, what is likely to happen for what reason and how can one make a profit under these circumstances.

firstly, the ecb has an special interest in saving the euro – the ecb only exists as long as the euro does („what ever it takes“).

secondly, the purchase program has been already extended. if needed, it will be extended again. the question is, how far? draghi has shown his creativity to flexibilise the inflation goal when he mentioned the four criteria. two of them might allow him to extend the pp much more than many might guess (convergence of inflation rates among all euro members + self-feeding, not only caused by the pp itself). so if not the inflation rate, the next border could be the maximum of 33% of all gov. bonds of each country. citis calculation show that this could imply to buy less german bonds and more italian bonds f.e. in a first step. The maximum prolongation oft he pp could last till 2019 – and draghis mandate ends in that year.

thirdly, Weidmann and some others have another view on the pp, but they are a minority, so most likely, there will be an extension of the pp („as long as needed“) i guess.

for the above mentioned reasons, i think it´s possible draghi can surprise the market. if so, this will manifest in a huge candle – i´ll try to jump on it. maybe i´ll jump in the fire…

enough time spend in front of the monitor for the moment, i´ll go for a walk.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #29,886
  • Mar 7, 2017 4:34am Mar 7, 2017 4:34am
Quoting deltaone
two days ahead from lord draghila, here my thoughts concerning the ecb pc, esp. the purchase program: its not my objective to judge the monetary policy, saying its bad or good. i have an opinion, but that doesnt matter at all. the only important thing is: what can happen, what is likely to happen for what reason and how can one make a profit under these circumstances. firstly, the ecb has an special interest in saving the euro the ecb only exists as long as the euro does (what ever it takes). secondly, the purchase program has been already extended....
If I read correctly there should be a positive surprise. The assumption here is that the euro or eurozone needs saving. Euro is weak but this is great for the most important economy of the eurozone, Germany. The markets are doing well, actually way to well compared to reality, but people are not preoccupied with reality so I dont see why he would need to surprise the market when it seems that the market is ok and the market doesnt like surprises in any direction. But maybe I misunderstood something.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #29,887
  • Mar 7, 2017 4:51am Mar 7, 2017 4:51am
Quoting deltaone
long @11.960,1 sl -10 tp +30
tp was hit. +30
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #29,888
  • Mar 7, 2017 5:08am Mar 7, 2017 5:08am
Quoting manosk
{quote} If I read correctly there should be a positive surprise. The assumption here is that the euro or eurozone needs saving. Euro is weak but this is great for the most important economy of the eurozone, Germany. The markets are doing well, actually way to well compared to reality, but people are not preoccupied with reality so I dont see why he would need to surprise the market when it seems that the market is ok and the market doesnt like surprises in any direction. But maybe I misunderstood something.
it´s about central bank communication policy and short term reactions in financial markets - not about the transmission mechanism of monetary policy decisions.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #29,889
  • Edited 6:04am Mar 7, 2017 5:49am | Edited 6:04am
Long Dax @11958 SL 20 p.
TP 29
Per aspera ad astra
  • #29,890
  • Mar 7, 2017 6:38am Mar 7, 2017 6:38am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} its about central bank communication policy and short term reactions in financial markets - not about the transmission mechanism of monetary policy decisions.
Sorry I still dont follow but dont worry. Thanks for your time.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #29,891
  • Mar 7, 2017 6:41am Mar 7, 2017 6:41am
Quoting deltaone
two days ahead from lord draghila, here my thoughts concerning the ecb pc, esp. the purchase program: its not my objective to judge the monetary policy, saying its bad or good. i have an opinion, but that doesnt matter at all. the only important thing is: what can happen, what is likely to happen for what reason and how can one make a profit under these circumstances. firstly, the ecb has an special interest in saving the euro the ecb only exists as long as the euro does (what ever it takes). secondly, the purchase program has been already extended....
Good to see you back D-one.

I know Draghi tends to shoot the lights out by beating expectations, however, with inflation nearing the objective targets for both the ECB and Fed, don't you think the ECB might be conservative this time and just leave it be with the current programme?

Draghi might be content with the EUR value for now, I mean its sitting at 1.057 against the USD.

EU and US Inflation figures here:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/coun...inflation-rate
  • #29,892
  • Mar 7, 2017 8:30am Mar 7, 2017 8:30am
Waiting for the US open.
IMO:
On ES crucial zone for buyers to defend is 2367-69, on NQ 5340... basically they need to defend yesterday low, since those values are again the same or close to the break-out that we had last Wednesday. Bellow that, that would be a failed break-out, and in case buyers defend support, they would try to go to the recent ATHs in the following days. Selling tempo is very sluggish, so if the sellers don't get results soon, that could lead to short covering. A scenario that we seen over and over again. Maybe DAX is the best example of just how sluggish selling is, with one big daily green candle and then 3 small red ones, and today is small range also, so far. That doesn't look threatening at all - so far. Things can change fast, but that would require a failed breakout on Yankees - and DAX could visit the 11,850 area again for start. Would like to see that, because a "healthy correction" as talking heads would say, is good for us traders, and in the long run good for market also. So, we will se. What will happen out of that two scenarios? I don't know. Prepared for both of them.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #29,893
  • Edited 9:12am Mar 7, 2017 8:42am | Edited 9:12am
DAX Short @ 946

T1 +11 points x 3 lot
1 Lot sold +10 points
2 lot to go
FLAT BE last 2 lots

On IB low now @ 938
On -0.25% Y close @ 930
Attached Images
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #29,894
  • Edited 9:10am Mar 7, 2017 8:54am | Edited 9:10am
Well, ES managed to breach Y low for only 3 ticks, and then get above again.
"Look bellow and fail"?
Long ES 2367.50, stop 1.5 pts

addon
SL on BE, target 2373
took 1/2 off for 2.5 points on 2370, other half - hero (another 3 points) or zero, gotta go out.
Has the potential to go higher, but it also could retest entry, so f*ck it.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #29,895
  • Edited 10:37am Mar 7, 2017 10:26am | Edited 10:37am
New long Dax @11955 SL 20 p.
BE now. TP 20.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #29,896
  • Mar 7, 2017 11:37am Mar 7, 2017 11:37am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Sorry I still dont follow but dont worry. Thanks for your time.
maybe i´ll give it another try sometime. you´re welcome.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #29,897
  • Edited 12:04pm Mar 7, 2017 11:49am | Edited 12:04pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Good to see you back D-one. I know Draghi tends to shoot the lights out by beating expectations, however, with inflation nearing the objective targets for both the ECB and Fed, don't you think the ECB might be conservative this time and just leave it be with the current programme? Draghi might be content with the EUR value for now, I mean its sitting at 1.057 against the USD. EU and US Inflation figures here: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/coun...inflation-rate
thx, Pari. that is another possible outcome, but its a less likely alternative scenario to me, although you are right that inflation is nearing the objective target, and i agree that the EUR value might be fine for Draghi at the actual level. thank you for the link.

potentially interesting:

http://blog.pimco.com/2017/03/07/the...-ecb-tapering/

https://www.welt.de/img/finanzen/mob...ets-pd-jpg.jpg
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #29,898
  • Mar 7, 2017 12:34pm Mar 7, 2017 12:34pm
Quoting jpadvisor
New long Dax @11955 SL 20 p. BE now. TP 20.
TP hit
Per aspera ad astra
  • #29,899
  • Mar 7, 2017 1:49pm Mar 7, 2017 1:49pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} maybe ill give it another try sometime. youre welcome.
No need, that's fine. What I meant is exactly what Pari wrote as well.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #29,900
  • Edited 2:08am Mar 8, 2017 1:55am | Edited 2:08am
DAX Short @935

T1 +18p
1 lot to go. SL BE
FLAT BE last lot/No Prof Gap so they try to close the Y Gap up to 958

Single TPOs down to 865
On -0.25% Y close now @ 927
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FDXM 03-17 (30 Minute) 2017_03_08.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FESX 03-17 (30 Minute) 2017_03_08.png Size: 24 KB
Attached Image
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
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