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The Really Useless Thread

  • #148,161
  • Mar 4, 2017 9:25pm Mar 4, 2017 9:25pm
Quoting priceaction1
@ROOBII "big hands who were buying dollars took profit" and those (retailers and latecomers as sisse always explains) got trapped. "and then as we got closer to nfp and all this news events... we bounced right off support as profit taking occurred' Did you think that they took profit during bounced, no it was not like that, the profit taking was done (if any) before up side move what we have to find out is clue for distribution/accumulation. for me this was the profit taking area not when it spike up https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...6&d=1488380935...
That is a beautiful trade. Well done.
  • #148,162
  • Mar 4, 2017 9:58pm Mar 4, 2017 9:58pm
@ pkimncy. thank you
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,163
  • Mar 5, 2017 2:52pm Mar 5, 2017 2:52pm
Quoting roobii
{quote} {quote} I originally picked 1a for the midday iteration and hopefully sisse could correct me if i was wrong on my sypnosis. I would have to go into my notes but we had a similar iteration like this in the past. But remember its not that we are trading facts we are trading expectations.... and as I understand and stated before and sisse mentioned it earlier that CME jumped in expectation and the closer we got to 85% the closer we are to a done deal. But if you look at the dollar rally with good news/ trump tweets/conference etc. Dollar was...
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  • #148,164
  • Mar 6, 2017 3:40am Mar 6, 2017 3:40am
Quoting sisse
... Euro, Gold and to lesser extend OIL and Sterling unlocking further opportunities for trading ....starting as early as the European open on Monday....
As expected since Friday close. Euro triggering one more time (and prolly last at these levels) "choose your poison time' as early as the European opening ended for those in both the hikes play for NFP and /or positioning for ECB flows.

GL all trading, planning to trade or already in positions.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,165
  • Mar 6, 2017 4:15am Mar 6, 2017 4:15am
Quoting Bud Foxx
{quote} {quote} Starting to like this trade more and more.. Euro just needs to clear that bi@tch 1.0610 level and 1.0630 (monthly pivot) to really start cooking
Decided to close 1 lot at 1.0630
and the then another lot at 1.0610 when we were moving down.

Still left with 2 positions but reduced in size significantly , SL at BE.

A break above 1.0630 and 1.0650 and we can easily reach 1.0840
If not - all good.. I already made my money

closed and open positions:
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  • #148,166
  • Edited 9:48am Mar 6, 2017 8:01am | Edited 9:48am
Quoting sisse
{quote} you should check 1.057x with the open. If Equities give you the go ahead you can outguess the flow.
Just a quick reality check please: Again it makes sense to eye 570 for the open. In this case equities not giving the go ahead. Actually to the contrary at the moment. 610/40 (again) is the only show in town.

Yay or nay on that guess at the flow? Thumbs up or down will do to get me on track I'm sure you are busy with the open.
(Could be wrong time for that question too as the greater part of any flow now would be dominated by positioning for coming news as opposed to when you posted quote above)

Thanks.
  • #148,167
  • Edited 12:30pm Mar 6, 2017 9:20am | Edited 12:30pm
Bought MASI 93.40 risking 15 cents., CNCE bought15,15 SL already BE its moving agressively. Nothing to update on FX we havent moved anywhere yet.
SNAPy so far spanked on NYO, looks like nothing to see there today.

EDIT: MASI stoped -1R, CNCE locked some profits 17.7-18.1 +3R, still holding the rest bits.
  • #148,168
  • Mar 6, 2017 2:18pm Mar 6, 2017 2:18pm
Good for bulls if eu can't make it below 570 tonight. I would think we'd be in 620/50 territory on the way into ECB. That's a decent springboard for st longs. A litmus test for how priced in is a March hike from there.
Good for bears if we can close below it. Might see 550/20 for Thursday meeting.
Most likely it's no news til there's news and all paths lead to good ol' 610. And good chance we hit all those levels on Thursday event (small range). But where eu starts off from within that small range could offer clues to where the reactions take it afterwards.
  • #148,169
  • Mar 6, 2017 2:58pm Mar 6, 2017 2:58pm
Uneventful day across the board with currencies and Gold at centre stage this week. Lots action and major flows clashing with each other. We are going to have big shake outs across the majors in the upcoming days as neither Dollar, Euro*, Yen* and Sterling* look comfortable or sustainable for much longer at these levels.

Gold will be in the driver seat of the FX board until ECB.

sisse

Quoting goosebone
{quote} Just a quick reality check please: Again it makes sense to eye 570 for the open. In this case equities not giving the go ahead. Actually to the contrary at the moment. 610/40 (again) is the only show in town....
Mid term 1.061x is the only level in play since January nothing has changed. As you know is a key FA level on rate differentials and this week we have ECB / FED (via NFP until the week after) so no surprises we are still here this week.

On 1.057x that was the no brainer micro level for the flow on Friday and now as everybody can see it is the one we are chopping around for the roll. As long as it holds is a very weak soft reference only for a quick glance but it will be pretty much irrelevant if its still holding once we enter in the movers and shakers this week.

=========== ==============

+++ Opening SNAP Iteration 2 for single Stock trading ++++


A tricky (on purpose) call. SNAP again back to $24.5x. If you want to load SNAP in a portfolio. Same options as before but: Has anything changed since last time ? Would you take again the same decision?

Feel free to jump in for those interesting in exploring in detail basic Single stock trading in the context of building a portfolio.

a. Buy MKT @ $24.5 targeting a return of TP1 (10%) => $26.9x => TP2 (20%) $29.4x STPs 3% below the lows of the range.
b. Buy LMT 10% below @$22.x0 targeting TP1 (22%) => $26.9x => TP2 (34%) $29.4x STP 5% below
c. Nothing to see here. Play a compression of volatility neither $26.5x or the bottom $23.0x of the opening range will be taken in the next month (risking 4% for 8% return).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,170
  • Mar 6, 2017 3:19pm Mar 6, 2017 3:19pm
B.

I believe it is overvalued at the moment. Analyst such as Morning Star is giving it a $17 fair market value. Expectations are that it will not keep up w other competitors like Instagram.

We trade expectations. However, I still see value in it but wouldn't keep it in my portfolio over the long haul.
  • #148,171
  • Mar 6, 2017 3:22pm Mar 6, 2017 3:22pm
I would think order of events here will be A (check), C, then B.
Put me down for C please.
  • #148,172
  • Mar 6, 2017 3:23pm Mar 6, 2017 3:23pm
Quoting sisse
=========== ============== +++ Opening SNAP Iteration 2 for single Stock trading ++++ A tricky (on purpose) call. SNAP again back to $24.5x. If you want to load SNAP in a portfolio. Same options as before but: Has anything changed since last time ? Would you take again the same decision? Feel free to jump in for those interesting in exploring in detail basic Single stock trading in the context of building a portfolio. a. Buy MKT @ $24.5 targeting a return of TP1 (10%) => $26.9x => TP2 (20%) $29.4x STPs 3% below the lows of the range. b. Buy LMT...
b.

I was wrong the first time , hype =buy now, ask questions later !! I might be wrong this time also but after the pump comes the dump , I bet many are going to

jump in at these prices , if I am willing for a chance then I will wait for lower price than the opening to find value.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,173
  • Edited 3:54pm Mar 6, 2017 3:27pm | Edited 3:54pm
B here, looking for a bargain

Rode the initial "oh look a new tech IPO!" volatility- not interested until further data and footing

I agree with much of this article, as I posted during SNAP 1

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/06/snap-...uy-rating.html
  • #148,174
  • Edited 4:29pm Mar 6, 2017 4:04pm | Edited 4:29pm
...and we are rolling ...Euro looks scary ...no further comments....

sisse

Quoting sisse
============== +++ Opening SNAP Iteration 2 for single Stock trading ++++
Shy board one more time even after the last iteration ... as last time iteration open till the bell tomorrow.

+++ Opening SNAP Iteration 2 for single Stock trading ++++


IN


a. Buy MKT @ $24.5 targeting a return of TP1 (10%) => $26.9x => TP2 (20%) $29.4x STPs 3% below the lows of the range.



b. Buy LMT 10% below @$22.x0 targeting TP1 (22%) => $26.9x => TP2 (34%) $29.4x STP 5% below

IMARICH1

Pharm0r

hoom

Pixie666


c. Nothing to see here. Play a compression of volatility neither $26.5x or the bottom $23.0x of the opening range will be taken in the next month (risking 4% for 8% return).

goosebone

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,175
  • Mar 6, 2017 4:10pm Mar 6, 2017 4:10pm
B for me also
  • #148,176
  • Mar 6, 2017 4:18pm Mar 6, 2017 4:18pm
Quoting sisse
...and we are rolling ...Euro looks scary ...no further comments.... sisse
what looks scary to me is the selling pressure again especially after friday move , the compression range shows how price hits a wall on both sides many many

times . the downside is like a pandora box , once opened no one knows the extent or the pace of the move that could happen.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,177
  • Mar 6, 2017 4:37pm Mar 6, 2017 4:37pm
[ a. Buy MKT @ $24.5 targeting a return of TP1 (10%) => $26.9x => TP2 (20%) $29.4x STPs 3% below the lows of the range. b. Buy LMT 10% below @$22.x0 targeting TP1 (22%) => $26.9x => TP2 (34%) $29.4x STP 5% below c. Nothing to see here. Play a compression of volatility neither $26.5x or the bottom $23.0x of the opening range will be taken in the next month (risking 4% for 8% return). sisse[/quote]

B this time for me..
  • #148,178
  • Mar 6, 2017 5:11pm Mar 6, 2017 5:11pm
Quoting sisse
...and we are rolling ...Euro looks scary ...no further comments.... sisse {quote}
Still B.
  • #148,179
  • Mar 6, 2017 5:17pm Mar 6, 2017 5:17pm
c again
  • #148,180
  • Edited 5:43pm Mar 6, 2017 5:30pm | Edited 5:43pm
Quoting sisse
.... +++ Opening SNAP Iteration 2 for single Stock trading ++++ ...
B

Quoting sisse
...and we are rolling ...Euro looks scary ...no further comments...
We are back to square one on the political side in France after the latest developments. Fillon is finally confirmed (again) but a poll shows he is now viewed as negatively as Le Pen by French ! If he finally reaches runoff vote with Le Pen, there will be 2 very scary weeks in France between the 1st and the 2nd round (believe me). So far, "white knight" Macron holds a clear lead over Fillon in the first round according to the polls, but he is the "junior guy" in the story and his score looks rather fragile. There are really few reasons for Euro to rise further after friday mini-rally now.
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