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The Really Useless Thread

  • #148,121
  • Mar 3, 2017 2:10pm Mar 3, 2017 2:10pm
Quoting chester123
kind of irrational moves across the board with hike odds surging to the top. :/ seems as a nasty micro flow short squeeze. 61 should be max technically. {image}
If hike is real I think is normal price go higher for get better shorts. And maybe will break that channel temporarily for kill many shorts placed after last spike at yellen speak ( around 1.058). But we will see how opens Monday...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #148,122
  • Mar 3, 2017 2:12pm Mar 3, 2017 2:12pm
Quoting Bud Foxx
{quote} If I Would of taken your advice, I would have less 2000$+ usd equity in my account as of now. Btw I added at 1.0560 area today .. I need a close at 1.0610 (or above ) to really start feeling good. {image}
If you keep this trade open till your TP is hit .. I will get in touch with you in a couple of sessions ...
Nothing is right or wrong in this game ... Bookmark this conversation will catch in few sessions... And happy weekend buddy ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,123
  • Mar 3, 2017 3:11pm Mar 3, 2017 3:11pm
Euro cleaned the weekly range from bottom to top in one day and less than a couple of hours once Yellen confirmed hikes. A complete clean out of soft hands, all the range cleared for next week.

Well done all that caught that quick but very direct and yummy mini rally today. On the rest of the board, a rather uneventful session with all markets behaving.

A quick review on the last question in the thread: No comments for now until the roll to wrap up...

Quoting sisse
{quote} You maybe getting too close to the market ....
What do you think has more odds for today's close:

1a. 'This is a trap, shorts are trapped and getting spank' Euro to close above 1.061x in a one major engulfing bullish candle.
1b. 'Nay just noise, there is nothing to see here' Euro to close around 1.061x until NFP and FED hikes
1c. 'This is just a mini 'dead cat bounce' before the hikes capitulation move' We will close today @ 1.045x on the very lows.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,124
  • Mar 3, 2017 3:16pm Mar 3, 2017 3:16pm
Quoting sisse
Euro cleaned the weekly range from bottom to top in one day and less than a couple of hours once Yellen confirmed hikes. A complete clean out of soft hands, all the range cleared for next week. Well done all that caught that quick but very direct and yummy mini rally today. On the rest of the board, a rather uneventful session with all markets behaving. A quick review on the last question in the thread: No comments for now until the roll to wrap up... {quote} What do you think has more odds for today's close: 1a. 'This is a trap, shorts are trapped...
Seem 1a is happening. Do you think price will not try 1.0820 before hikes? We have gap there and it's good place for try new low
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #148,125
  • Mar 3, 2017 3:25pm Mar 3, 2017 3:25pm
b. I think we close around .0610 and stay here until NFP.

I called this move earlier this week from .0540 to .061x to .064x as I thought stops around .061x might get hit. Perhaps, just luck as we did hit the .049x level and it held.

Im still not convinced it won't hit .064x prior to NFP and squeeze Shorts more. I am going to wait and position for it next week.
  • #148,126
  • Mar 3, 2017 3:36pm Mar 3, 2017 3:36pm
I think it is a nice squeeze . I want kneejerk before I go to neutral . For now just patience. and I go for answer
1B
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,127
  • Mar 3, 2017 3:39pm Mar 3, 2017 3:39pm
Quoting Earleone
I think it is a nice squeeze . I want kneejerk before I go to neutral . For now just patience. and I go for answer 1B
Other option is hike is almost priced in last bear movement...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #148,128
  • Mar 3, 2017 3:57pm Mar 3, 2017 3:57pm
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} Other option is hike is almost priced in last bear movement...
March yes, but USD is strong and has way to go. I been reading around and some economists expect a rise in USD up to 25% with the Trumponomics. And we are in swing up for USDx ( uggly weekly close now for us bulls ) . Expectations for further rate hike in May is still low and decreasing the last day. But I stay bullish USD side of the move and think what we see now is a squeeze and shakeout.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,129
  • Edited 4:25pm Mar 3, 2017 4:14pm | Edited 4:25pm
...and we rolled with a rather bearish daily close and a neutral close in weekly back to the never ending 1.061x that can be for the last time in a very very long time in play next week.

As anticipated since last week an expansion in volatility confirmed with a very strong US session in the Euro which was the only thing on the move in the US closing session.

Highlight of the week. Hikes are done deal. NFP to close the chapter.

Euro, Gold and to lesser extend OIL and Sterling unlocking further opportunities for trading in a very technical week. Expecting very active weeks for trading starting as early as the European open on Monday....until then not much to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,130
  • Mar 3, 2017 4:24pm Mar 3, 2017 4:24pm
A quick update on the last question. From a strictly technical sense and being a dick for a tick 1a was the answer, however we couldn't engulf the highs for the close. 1a was the official answer. In my books 1b is the proper TA answer price wise.

Quoting sisse
Euro cleaned the weekly ...
What do you think has more odds for today's close:

1a. 'This is a trap, shorts are trapped and getting spank' Euro to close above 1.061x in a one major engulfing bullish candle.
1b. 'Nay just noise, there is nothing to see here' Euro to close around 1.061x until NFP and FED hikes
1c. 'This is just a mini 'dead cat bounce' before the hikes capitulation move' We will close today @ 1.045x on the very lows.


Quoting braintheboss
{quote} Seem 1a is happening. Do you think price will not try 1.0820 before hikes? We have gap there and it's good place for try new low
1.087x is still technically open. It will be extremely hard to reach there without a major flop from the US numbers. The W opening range till Monday NY will answer and will make things clearer.

As long as bulls keep holding they have the benefit of the doubt plus we are running out of time. From next week NFP onwards we will enter in 'fill or kill' for the mid term leg in the Euro.

Quoting Earleone
{quote} March yes, but USD is strong and has way to go. I been reading around and some economists expect a rise in USD up to 25% with the Trumponomics. ...
I am starting to incline to a +0.50% to +1.00% until the spring ...with .50% even possible at once in March ...We'll track US numbers very closely next week not because they are important for deciding hikes or not hikes but because overshoots could trigger a larger hike...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,131
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:13pm Mar 3, 2017 5:13pm
Quoting sisse
flawless 20% return trade in SNAP ++20% trade ...well done if any of you caught it
yeah that SkankChank looks like a winner....talking monetization....not like Titter at all. Looking forward to see the options roll out.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #148,132
  • Edited 9:09pm Mar 3, 2017 5:46pm | Edited 9:09pm
Quoting sisse
a. 'This is a trap, shorts are trapped and getting spank'
Yep. Open will be interesting. Bullish close over 610 took me by surprise a bit. Can't deny that. Some folks pay good money to get spanked. Never thought I'd be one of 'em though.
Good weekend all.
  • #148,133
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:52pm Mar 3, 2017 5:52pm
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...34#post9619234

1.0850-1.0870 area is point of interest.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,134
  • Edited 7:27pm Mar 3, 2017 7:06pm | Edited 7:27pm
Not a big fan of fibonacci but interesting..
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  • #148,135
  • Mar 3, 2017 8:12pm Mar 3, 2017 8:12pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Some of you guy own me a few beers .... sisse with the Midas touch this week...flawless 20% return trade in SNAP ++20% trade ...well done if any of you caught it, one way or the other. @Earleone, Pharm0r, Replicant you are already in the shortlist for the portfolio stage that is coming very soon. @cashfacto don't know you, you are new...
chester was in for A before final call (you missed him)

Quoting chester123
ok, interesting, it depends (not depends, but its confusing) on what time frame/lvl is this itineration - im not sure what can be the average ranges of moves when trading companies and dont wanna judge from first day of SNAP but lets say Im going for A dont know why as the google found analysis seem to be same sh*t as when it comes to FX.
  • #148,136
  • Mar 4, 2017 4:53am Mar 4, 2017 4:53am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} chester was in for A before final call (you missed him) {quote}
yes, yes, thanks Pharm0r for reminding
  • #148,137
  • Edited 8:48am Mar 4, 2017 8:16am | Edited 8:48am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Quick french presidential update for those interested : days counted now for right-wing leader Fillon, half of his staff have already gone, while more and more right-wing MPs urge him to drop presidential bid. However it should not happened before sunday as Fillon planned that day a ridicoulous demonstration against...judges (!) in Trocadero, Paris. Tuesday could be the day with Sarkozy team deciding to remove their support or not. Alain Juppe (much more moderate and easily able to gather French behind him in case of a run-off with Le Pen)...
This could really explain much of Fridays action in the Euro couldn't it? The Fillon staff resignations Friday making more real the probability of a Juppe replacement (Macron/Juppe runoff is what that points to I think?) and a much less possible far right victory. It ain't over til it's over but I'll be curious to see how many show up to his party on Sunday. And of course if Sarkozy brings down the hammer by pulling support in the coming week(s). Either way it appears to be a matter of when not if for Fillon at this point which seems to mean the same for Le Pen. Let me know if ive misunderstood or oversimplified it. It's late for me to be putting Friday news together in the context of *Euro price movement. Probably wouldn't have at all if I hadn't come across your post so one more time I appreciate the updates. Hope you traded it accordingly and got some points for it. Maybe the only news to be watching for euro trading at the moment.
  • #148,138
  • Mar 4, 2017 8:47am Mar 4, 2017 8:47am
just playing with charts. so on gold - ST/MT/LT has all FA alligned to BUY and here is how I would trade it right now - of course any projected path beyond FED is impossible to map exactly (given all the political chaos by Trump and elections in play!!!) so Im just suggesting the direction given by FA. any comments welcomed.
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  • #148,139
  • Mar 4, 2017 8:57am Mar 4, 2017 8:57am
A very simple but highly confusing
a very big confusion is being repeatedly coming in mind is that we trade expectation fed gave a green signal for hike in march, now if we see the eu chart in accordance nothing is being priced in… after such a hawkish tone we should see a break down in eu but what we ultimately got is a spike out of nowhere …. (OK) …
scenario 1 .
now what if we don’t get a hike what will be the outcome … Eu breakdown obvious
scenario 2 .
we get a hike 0.50% - 1.00% … Eu breakdown very obvious

so the point is where the hell this expectation went off …. We are directly trading facts …as sisse said bottom is around the corner (1000% agree to him)
now comes all the political BS …
so can anyone guess the Reason for the spike ..
1. Article 50 (UK)
2. Election around the corner (Europe)
3. Fed rate hike / NFP
4. Almost all CB are coming to deliver their best one after the another …(SNB, FED, ECB)
Any views highly appreciated …
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,140
  • Mar 4, 2017 9:52am Mar 4, 2017 9:52am
Quoting primejarvis
A very simple but highly confusing a very big confusion is being repeatedly coming in mind is that we trade expectation fed gave a green signal for hike in march, now if we see the eu chart in accordance nothing is being priced in after such a hawkish tone we should see a break down in eu but what we ultimately got is a spike out of nowhere . (OK) scenario 1 . now what if we dont get a hike what will be the outcome Eu breakdown obvious scenario 2 . we get a hike 0.50% - 1.00% Eu breakdown very obvious so the point is where the hell this expectation...
Put me down for 2. See Replicant's post above I think it explains a lot about the spike you are referring to.
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