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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #64,341
  • Mar 3, 2017 2:16pm Mar 3, 2017 2:16pm
Just my opinion. UJ will be 113 again. Gold spikes today.
  • #64,342
  • Mar 3, 2017 2:24pm Mar 3, 2017 2:24pm
Quoting frx_trader
Just my opinion. UJ will be 113 again. Gold spikes today.
I think prior to 113, we need to see 115.6-116.0. GL!
  • #64,343
  • Mar 3, 2017 2:44pm Mar 3, 2017 2:44pm
Come on "gold spikes". Didn't even make a new higher high for the day. And even if it does the weekly candle is still big, red, and bearish.
  • #64,344
  • Mar 3, 2017 2:49pm Mar 3, 2017 2:49pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I think prior to 113, we need to see 115.6-116.0. GL!
Nope.
113.4 first then 115.....
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #64,345
  • Mar 3, 2017 3:11pm Mar 3, 2017 3:11pm
A retracement or a reversal?

that is the question at the moment and you have the weekend to think about it. Get it right the market will reward you.
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #64,346
  • Mar 3, 2017 4:58pm Mar 3, 2017 4:58pm
The daily chart shows a double bottom pattern... price action on the daily looks bullish.
  • #64,347
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:10pm Mar 3, 2017 5:10pm
Breaking firmly above of 114.950 resistance zone will confirm bullish uptrend.
  • #64,348
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:20pm Mar 3, 2017 5:20pm
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} Nope. 113.4 first then 115.....
Ill even throw in that we will probably reach 112.8x but that may be too ambitious ^.^
  • #64,349
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:40pm Mar 3, 2017 5:40pm
Quoting pfernandez
What do you think about this? USDJPY is trying to break the 38.6 level. Is it going for the 50% level? {image}
im in over the weekend ,my take profit is set at 113.707
  • #64,350
  • Mar 3, 2017 8:16pm Mar 3, 2017 8:16pm
Quoting RondaRousey
A retracement or a reversal? that is the question at the moment and you have the weekend to think about it. Get it right the market will reward you.
Hello Ronda,
i think it is a reversal, look at the 4H candle, only last candle after yellen speak going down and break through MA(14). if it is just a retracement, i think it will go down slowly and coordinate well.
look at the other pair just like EUR/USD, two days down movement already beat with only one day up movement.
For the news: Yellen says March rate hike 'appropriate' if data holds up.
In my opinion, if data holds up then there is no need for FED to raise the interest rate. So, if yellen already make up her mind and sure that FED will 100% raise the interest rate, why doesn't she say it in her speech last night?
Why it still need 15 March to confirm FED will raise or not the interest rate on March?
So my conclusion is She want to watch the market without doing anything for this 2 weeks.

What about other opinion?
thank you...
  • #64,351
  • Mar 3, 2017 9:46pm Mar 3, 2017 9:46pm
There is still a jobs report to come before the Fed meeting.

Unemployment is 4.7%, but Yellen likes to look at JOLTS (job openings), and as you look below, 4 out of the past 5 reports have missed expectations.

actual forecast
Feb 08, 2017 (Dec)02:005.501M 5.568M
Jan 11, 2017 (Nov)02:005.522M 5.555M
Dec 08, 2016 (Oct)02:005.534M 5.500M
Nov 09, 2016 (Sep)02:005.486M 5.508M5
Oct 13, 2016 (Aug)01:005.443M 5.724M5

The market seems to be pricing in a fed hike, but for any contrarians or speculators, betting against a rate hike should the NON-farm payrolls come in below expectations might be worth consideration. Yellen is after all, a dove, and there is no expectation of inflation becoming a problem by keeping rates low, even as the global economy improves.
  • #64,352
  • Edited 11:36pm Mar 3, 2017 11:15pm | Edited 11:36pm
Quoting yongsien
{quote} So, if yellen already make up her mind and sure that FED will 100% raise the interest rate, why doesn't she say it in her speech last night? Why it still need 15 March to confirm FED will raise or not the interest rate on March? So my conclusion is She want to watch the market without doing anything for this 2 weeks. What about other opinion? thank you...
Hello. You are right, she hasn't made up her mind. But there is a strong tendency towards rate hike in March. FED doesn;t want to see inflation goes up more. (Correct me if there is inflation. Because I don't know).

If inflation goes up further, and FED is late in hiking the rate. The result is not good. You will have high price in inflation, and High USD rate. The market has 2 choice in this scenario of hiking rate too slow. The domestic and import price goes down due to high USD. That means Deflation. And FED has too lower the rate again. USD will drop.

If FED hike the rate in March. Then inflation will tame, due to high USD. Commodity price will stay low. Trump will be very happy about it.

So, many will think it's best for FED to raise rate. In order to 1. Tame inflation 2. Low commodity price.

What happens in the market is completely different story. Just guessing game.
  • #64,353
  • Edited 3:01am Mar 4, 2017 2:50am | Edited 3:01am
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} Nope. 113.4 first then 115.....
Agree with this. Most probably this scenario will be in play. If the pair didn't hit 116.9 till 13 march - i'll short to the 105.
Sad if we miss a black friday sale @121.5 - reaching it now can consolidate market heavily and will born the risk to refresh absolute low (unwanted scenario). To break it up the market must consolidate @major_uptrend_support more often.
Forcemeat can not be unrolled back...
  • #64,354
  • Mar 4, 2017 5:21am Mar 4, 2017 5:21am
If it is just a consolidation, why the 4H candle are so sharp head to bottom?
I hope that after being rejected by 114.8 (weekly resistance), it will go down 100% to 111.67 once more, so we all can get a lot of pips. LoL...
March 15 next meeting, so this weeks it has to go down 100% and next week will bounce again 100%. Hahahahaha....
  • #64,355
  • Mar 4, 2017 7:02am Mar 4, 2017 7:02am
Quoting yongsien
.... So my conclusion is She want to watch the market without doing anything for this 2 weeks...
Which is what she said.

So we wait till the meeting unless you think you are smarter than the market ... and ... the Fed.
  • #64,356
  • Mar 4, 2017 8:53am Mar 4, 2017 8:53am
Even if nfp comes in worse than expected it doesn't mean it's a sell signal. Employment fluctuates and the US is at full employment so even if it creates 120k jobs it's still not going to change direction. You might get a small reactionary trade but ultimately the trend for the $ is positive. Yellen has stated they want to move into a neutral rate stance and the question is what is that sweet spot. 1 percent is still below historic level a where inflation would be where it is now. Raising rates 1/4 percent isn't going to have a bad effect and ultimately will bring them to that 1 percent they have mentioned several times before in statements. The real question isn't 1 percent but rather when they might look to raise again. I suspect a mover in the upcoming decision is going to be a faster tapering down of market operations.

I see this pair hitting 118 again at the min and possibly 120. It will be a while before we see Trump policies put into play as that is a complex endeavor. Also Japan has a crap export number last month and have extended their QE. I am long this pair at the moment and should things turn out in line with expectations it could prove to be a 400 pip destination
  • #64,357
  • Mar 4, 2017 9:07am Mar 4, 2017 9:07am
Quoting EcoTrader
Even if nfp comes in worse than expected it doesn't mean it's a sell signal. Employment fluctuates and the US is at full employment so even if it creates 120k jobs it's still not going to change direction. You might get a small reactionary trade but ultimately the trend for the $ is positive. Yellen has stated they want to move into a neutral rate stance and the question is what is that sweet spot. 1 percent is still below historic level a where inflation would be where it is now. Raising rates 1/4 percent isn't going to have a bad effect and ultimately...
maybe you are right, i think i will going long buy again from 113.7+
right now i still have sell position on 114.03, hope it will go down to 113.70 then up again.
  • #64,358
  • Mar 4, 2017 10:00am Mar 4, 2017 10:00am
Quoting yongsien
{quote} Hello Ronda, i think it is a reversal, look at the 4H candle, only last candle after yellen speak going down and break through MA(14). if it is just a retracement, i think it will go down slowly and coordinate well. look at the other pair just like EUR/USD, two days down movement already beat with only one day up movement. For the news: Yellen says March rate hike 'appropriate' if data holds up. In my opinion, if data holds up then there is no need for FED to raise the interest rate. So, if yellen already make up her mind and sure that FED...
Most of the posts are saying retracement. You are the only one saying UJ is at reversal.
So you shorted at 114.03 and will buy at 113.7.
That is not a reversal. You are buying on retracement.
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #64,359
  • Mar 4, 2017 10:13am Mar 4, 2017 10:13am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Most of the posts are saying retracement. You are the only one saying UJ is at reversal. So you shorted at 114.03 and will buy at 113.7. That is not a reversal. You are buying on retracement.
yes my bad... let's see what's will going on this monday. i got confused at the beginning when it drops like that.
  • #64,360
  • Mar 4, 2017 11:16am Mar 4, 2017 11:16am
Wednesday is more important than Monday and Friday will be the decider
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