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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,941
  • Feb 28, 2017 10:55am Feb 28, 2017 10:55am
Quoting sisse
{quote} A quick accountability post update for those who called the flows last week. Only @Earleone still in play for this one ... @primejarvis Direct -> 1.056x [check] -> 1.047x -> Stopped out 1.061x [check] @Earleone Direct -> 1.061x [check...in play] -> TP1 1.049 -> TP2 1.039X @Fadhl Zigzag 1.054 [check] -> 1.045 -> 1.066 -> 1.078 and up to 1.10...
Not me my S/l was above 1.068x
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,942
  • Feb 28, 2017 11:12am Feb 28, 2017 11:12am
Quoting SorinAQ
Seems very normal now the monthly close @ 1.061x, must of misunterstood that post about 1.052x level in play and same trades, same all but not same levels. As for the momebtum play I have to guess right now that it would be a spike up like us election night and December ecb?
I read all the previous posts about the momentum play. I was waiting to answer for today's close. Just quickly 1.061x is the only level in play in the Euro for the mid term leg. This is the one and only one leg that matter at these levels.

There was zero in play for the short term the last few days in the Euro. (Last week iteration was exactly to show that point ...the one I just updated). We re deep in profits in the short term swing and there is nothing to see here but let it pan out or flop.

On the momentum play is to highlight we have a potential pure price momentum play entry now TA wise for the short term. The last 3 times last year in the Euro we called live / 1 or 2 sessions before the fact, now I am using it to challenge those who are interested in spotting live ....we'll see if it pans out but I will leave it open for now until the close today.

Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Not me my S/l was above 1.068x
je jej je ... Sorry mate you don't get to choose that. The call is used to track the flow in the thread so there is no changes in between otherwise it will defeat the purpose of tracking a live call. I am sure you can manage as you wish in your live trading but for the purpose of the conversation its out. ...

More importantly and to highlight why I limited your stop is because of R:R if you put the stop @ 1.068x your risk will be 120 ticks while your potential reward would have been 90 ticks. Which lead to against exactly the point of this iterations:

  1. An awfully poor R:R ...you would have been trading a NEGATIVE expectations !!!! (R:R = 0,75 !!!) and more importantly
  2. You are off range in that call. We are exactly 7 days later for a micro flow ....its clear that the you caught the wrong side of that micro news flow.


Don't worry too much about making a wrong call in a news flow ...that's exactly the point of opening a iteration publicly so you and everybody else can follow what went right or wrong .... Whatever you do in your live trading doesn't have anything to do with this ....

GL in the next one....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,943
  • Feb 28, 2017 11:24am Feb 28, 2017 11:24am
Quoting SorinAQ
Seems very normal now the monthly close @ 1.061x, must of misunterstood that post about 1.052x level in play and same trades, same all but not same levels. As for the momebtum play I have to guess right now that it would be a spike up like us election night and December ecb?
Well that's true. 1.089x would bring some heavy action I would think. Not sure if you'd call it a momentum play though.

Quote
1.061x (only level in play all month long @goosebone )

yep.

Quote
I was trying to dig up some more details about spending plan but no luck. Military purchases are often hiden to the last point but there are usually hints ahead, would be useful info to have catalyst side for specific picks on equities.

The thing about the Sequester is the proposed spending blows by the set defense spending cap (which is tied of course to the non defense spending cap).
That means that any change to the caps would require at least eight Democrats in the Senate to agree to the change in caps, or at least agree not to filibuster it. Then eight Democrats would have to vote for the actual appropriations bills that violate the caps, including ones that underfund non-defense programs, or at least not filibuster those bills.
Filibustering spending bills is one thing; theyre must-pass legislation, and if Democrats dont fall in line theyd ultimately shut down the federal government. But blocking changes in caps is another thing entirely, and its hard to imagine Republicans whipping enough Democratic votes to pass caps that dramatically slash domestic spending. There's a nuclear option there (ironic as sequester was a kind of nuclear option itself) where military spending is considered "war spending" using the OCO loophole. Back door method. Politicians are no stranger to the back door I suppose.
All in all this will be a fight even if it appears the republicans have big power and majority at the moment. We trade expectations. Hard telling how clear those will be.


(man I still don't know how to merge these quotes right. How do you guys do that? like sisse above)
  • #147,944
  • Feb 28, 2017 11:38am Feb 28, 2017 11:38am
Anyways I have a great feeling of getting stopout with my current s/l in live but have extended my t/p to 1.03x ... I was really expecting the monthly close above 1.048x ... Which is getting closer with just 6 hours left .... Not an issue with the call ... But if in any case it reaches 1.084x I will be heavily loaded but I don't see any reason of getting there not even crossing the 1.074x ... Let's C what Trump brings us with getting some leak on military expenditure instead of health care and hospitality ... Don't see more than 20 - 30 pips move before speech ... Good luck all for the upcoming tsunami ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,945
  • Feb 28, 2017 11:59am Feb 28, 2017 11:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I read all the previous posts about the momentum play. I was waiting to answer for today's close. Just quickly 1.061x is the only level in play in the Euro for the mid term leg. This is the one and only one leg that matter at these levels. There was zero in play for the short term the last few days in the Euro. (Last week iteration was exactly to show that point ...the one I just updated). We re deep in profits in the short term swing and there is nothing to see here but let it pan out or flop. On the momentum play is to highlight we have...
Now is good Timing
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #147,946
  • Feb 28, 2017 12:18pm Feb 28, 2017 12:18pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Added fresh one on ECAD, looking for EUR to outperform on crosses in next session/s. {image}
Closing 80% of longs on 4083, pretty good run for a RR 1:18 on lowest entry. EUR with slight overperformance on crosses today, clearing micro targets with flat view with exception of EA.
  • #147,947
  • Feb 28, 2017 3:03pm Feb 28, 2017 3:03pm
US Equities held strong confirming the exhaustion wave with an unconventional daily close play in S&P unlocking the micro crumbs to 2373.xx and the extension 2405.xx with any soft winds from Trump until NFP.

On the FX board, Dollar holding by inches a major break up while Euro* witha rather bullish close at key levels for the first time since 2015. The long and mid term bottom of the Euro is officially 1 and 1/2 elections away in the next few weeks.

On the shorter term, Euro holding 1.061x for the M calendar close no surprises whatsoever there and in Sterling but in both, the current lows looks very feeble to say the least.

We have potential tweet session after hours from the US. Wouldn't sit in the other side of a tweet (whatever his mood today and side he decide to trigger) as markets look particularly ready for the next move....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,948
  • Feb 28, 2017 3:50pm Feb 28, 2017 3:50pm
Should you put a LMT sell @ 1.051x or LMT buy @ 1.068x ?

Gl all trading overnight ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,949
  • Feb 28, 2017 3:53pm Feb 28, 2017 3:53pm
I prefer 1.051.
But why not both?
  • #147,950
  • Feb 28, 2017 3:56pm Feb 28, 2017 3:56pm
Quoting Fadhl
I prefer 1.051. But why not both?
1 is momentum play the other is nothing...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,951
  • Feb 28, 2017 3:56pm Feb 28, 2017 3:56pm
sisse,

Ok, time to show my ignorance. How did a Bull candle yesterday close as Very Bearish and a Bear Candle today close rather Bullish? We even held under the .0610 level which make this even more Bullish. I struggle with understanding what you determine Bullish or Bearish closes and when its relevant and irrelevant.

This week we are mainly in TA so I would think all closes Bearish or Bullish would be relevant. But today is a Bullish close? Don't Understand.

Still looking at a close under .0510 to start momentum leg but TA wise I see it being more around .048X
  • #147,952
  • Feb 28, 2017 3:59pm Feb 28, 2017 3:59pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Ok, time to show my ignorance. How did a Bull candle yesterday close as Very Bearish and a Bear Candle today close rather Bullish? We even held under the .0610 level which make this even more Bullish. I struggle with understanding what you determine Bullish or Bearish closes and when its relevant and irrelevant. This week we are mainly in TA so I would think all closes Bearish or Bullish would be relevant. But today is a Bullish close? Don't Understand. Still looking at a close under .0510 to start momentum leg but TA wise I see it being...
Do not look at daily candle for a M close .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,953
  • Feb 28, 2017 4:03pm Feb 28, 2017 4:03pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Ok, time to show my ignorance. How did a Bull candle yesterday close as Very Bearish and An Bear Candle today close rather Bullish? We even held under the .0610 level which make this even more Bullish. I struggle with understanding what you determine Bullish or Bearish closes and when its relevant and irrelevant. This week we are mainly in TA so I would think all closes Bearish or Bullish would be relevant. But today is a Bullish close? Don't Understand.
You have to understand that what's in play right now in 2017 is Trump. Technical (i.e. overbought, oversold) and long term fundamentals matter less on the daily/weekly basis than Trump's tweets. There is a correlation between what the says and how forex responds.

Trump's statements tends to move markets (even if they are without economic substance, since major institutions and big betters seem to like them). However, recently people have realized that maybe they bought into Trump's Make America Great Again sentiment a little too much, and as such ,when he delves into a tirade about Clinton, Obama, or the media/ some other crap when he's supposed to talk about specifics in his policies, people are selling the dollar as a lack of confidence. Combine that with Trump's 9pm EST congress speech today, and you have the potential for strange movements and high volatility and big traders and financial institutions begin to place their bets about what our dear leader will say next.

Most people seem wary of further downside, given that so far, Trump failed to explain how he'll pay for the rise in defense expenditures, how tax reforms will be made, whether his policies will affect Mexico/Canada/China trade, and etc. Of course, this also means that certain individuals with big orders might be impressed with even the slightest difference in Trump's tone and content of the speech, and proceed go long after the initial price whiplash across dollar pairs.

In short, people are just guessing right now, and to be honest you have as much knowledge as the traders in major financial institutions.

Long, short, anything can go.

Edit: It is also possible that there's a sudden movement up or down worth dozens of pips for certain dollar crosses as we grow closer and closer to Trump's speech. Honestly, you better have pretty wide SL if you want to position yourself prior to the main event tonight.
  • #147,954
  • Feb 28, 2017 4:13pm Feb 28, 2017 4:13pm
Yes, I agree Earleone. I thought sisse was referring to the Daily candle. Makes more sense now. Looking at a Monthly chart you can see why a close under .0510 is big. Thanks.

Vermillion, thanks for your insight and input. I concur with what you stating. I haven't seen sisse change outlook for any of the legs so I am still in SELL mode. I can see the volatility issue tonight.
  • #147,955
  • Feb 28, 2017 4:21pm Feb 28, 2017 4:21pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Ok, time to show my ignorance. How did a Bull candle yesterday close as Very Bearish and a Bear Candle today close rather Bullish? ....
M close today mate ...one refer to the simple daily rolls the other one for the M close (plus the comment was aim @ Euro* in particular as currency). One is for just tracking and managing the current swing short and mid term plays we are well into...the other is for what is about to come later in the year.

Yes 1.061x held easily thus, short and mid term no changes of outlook yet neither FA (FED still there) or TA (1.061x)....same levels same trades same all.

Mid/long term....the potential bottom is for the first time on sight after +5 years since the last time we changed outlook to sell and the downtrend started...plenty of backposts even on the day with live chart of the Q close that outlook was changed to sell...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,956
  • Feb 28, 2017 4:28pm Feb 28, 2017 4:28pm
Quoting sisse
Should you put a LMT sell @ 1.051x or LMT buy @ 1.068x ? Gl all trading overnight ... sisse
Wouldn't the real possibility of a spike like that of 9th November or 8th December over the next 24 hours make neither of those advisable....?
  • #147,957
  • Edited 7:12pm Feb 28, 2017 4:52pm | Edited 7:12pm
I don't like either entry. Must be missing something. Limit sell at 1.048x adds up for me better. That short looks like possible momentum play but I'm fuzzy on how far to zoom out or not to find one of those. I'll just read and learn for this one (as usual).
I can see how breaking January's open is bearish (understatement) but not sure it fits a momentum level since February's low sits below it. Is it just the rejection of the highs by February's candle and the break of the open of January into that support zone that constitutes the momentum play? I was thinking it had to be more than that. But I see the trigger plain. So if I had to pick one it's most definitely the 510.
  • #147,958
  • Feb 28, 2017 5:57pm Feb 28, 2017 5:57pm
Thanks sisse!

My answer to your question is: If we lose .0510 then Limit SELL would be in our direction and Outlook for the Momentum Leg.

A Lmt BUY at .0680 is a no for me since it's against our Outlook and could be an Exhaustion Leg or Squeeze play.
  • #147,959
  • Feb 28, 2017 8:26pm Feb 28, 2017 8:26pm
did trump ultimativly confirmed to cancel the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement in the speech right now? Holy moly.
  • #147,960
  • Feb 28, 2017 8:59pm Feb 28, 2017 8:59pm
What a crap ....
Re-Incarnated
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