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  • #147,921
  • Feb 27, 2017 4:03pm Feb 27, 2017 4:03pm
1.049x
  • #147,922
  • Feb 27, 2017 4:04pm Feb 27, 2017 4:04pm
Quoting sisse
...and we are rolling. An irrelevant but rather very bearish close with yearly bulls hanging by a very thin thread now sending screaming SOS signals as they will need a good hand to keep holding if we lose floor this week. More importantly and for those who are following/trading the mid and short term trades in the EURO, we have officially the 'infamous' momentum play on the map. As the last 3 times in the last year or so can you spot the play? ... No further comments, I let it open for those interested in exploring deeper and for those newcomers...
well I still have the very same ST map since DECEMBER and I think that if Trump "delivers" what market wants to hear with a hand of good macro numbers we will be on the way down in no time to also have the NFP on the middle of the way and finish by the main target with FED hike. EU side may just add strenght to the flow if France or Brexit drama continues (as it most likely will of course).

However, Im not sure right now how to spot the momentum flow so will leave it for someone else
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  • #147,923
  • Feb 27, 2017 4:05pm Feb 27, 2017 4:05pm
Quoting sisse
...and we are rolling. An irrelevant but rather very bearish close with yearly bulls hanging by a very thin thread now sending screaming SOS signals as they will need a good hand to keep holding if we lose floor this week. More importantly and for those who are following/trading the mid and short term trades in the EURO, we have officially the 'infamous' momentum play on the map. As the last 3 times in the last year or so can you spot the play? ... No further comments, I let it open for those interested in exploring deeper and for those newcomers...
i would say a close bellow 1.052x
regards
  • #147,924
  • Feb 27, 2017 4:43pm Feb 27, 2017 4:43pm
between ye guys..1.051x
  • #147,925
  • Feb 27, 2017 6:30pm Feb 27, 2017 6:30pm
Quoting sisse
... More importantly and for those who are following/trading the mid and short term trades in the EURO, we have officially the 'infamous' momentum play on the map. As the last 3 times in the last year or so can you spot the play? ... sisse
1.033 if my understanding of momentum is correct: point of no return!
  • #147,926
  • Feb 27, 2017 9:41pm Feb 27, 2017 9:41pm
I would say .0400 is the momentum line but .048x is the start of it. Therefore, losing the .0500 handle is a trigger.
  • #147,927
  • Feb 28, 2017 5:03am Feb 28, 2017 5:03am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Ok, just when i thought 235X can be discarded as done deal after 2385. Either way i know my play for tomorrow, besides/before 2385 i dont see anything naked for now. Failure of mild squeeze opens a drop, before that ill play longs, if failure i dont have play. Got some on ECAD, gona move stops to BE quickly and add in early London if i get some more.
Added fresh one on ECAD, looking for EUR to outperform on crosses in next session/s.
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  • #147,928
  • Feb 28, 2017 5:53am Feb 28, 2017 5:53am
i am positioning for 1.0480->1.0520->1.039X
but hey, we have a president that is a twitter gatling gun. everything can happen... these days man...
one fail in expextions on his fiscal building policy today can execute an ugly whipsaw.
  • #147,929
  • Feb 28, 2017 6:59am Feb 28, 2017 6:59am
Seems to me in order to get a significant reaction in dollar from the president's speech tonight that speech would firstly have to address taxes (border tax and corporate cuts). Secondly, a budget outline that implies deficit and ultimately debt increase would get a (lesser) reaction. We might see some of the latter play out but I think it's likely he avoids the first point altogether in terms of real detail. Healthcare will dominate and I don't see him breaking out of campaign mode just yet on everything else. Most likely a smallish, shortlived reaction in equities will be the net. That's my guess anyway.
  • #147,930
  • Feb 28, 2017 7:07am Feb 28, 2017 7:07am
Quoting goosebone
... I don't see him breaking out of campaign mode just yet on everything else. Most likely a smallish, shortlived reaction in equities will be the net. That's my guess anyway.
fair point. but WallStreet is waiting for a statement on the fiscal front since he gots elected. we need some "viagra" to keep that honeymoon in action.
  • #147,931
  • Feb 28, 2017 7:11am Feb 28, 2017 7:11am
Quoting PipJet
{quote} fair point. but WallStreet is waiting for a statement on the fiscal front since he gots elected. we need some "viagra" to keep that honeymoon in action.
No doubt about that.
  • #147,932
  • Feb 28, 2017 7:49am Feb 28, 2017 7:49am
A momentum play for me would be a clear break of 1.05 and a close below 1.0490.

What is the catalyst for such a move seeing as we are 100+ pips away?

On the USD side I don't see Trump offering anything new this evening, if anything he is likely to disappoint again by providing very little detail in terms of fiscal policy. Wednesday sees Manufacturing PMIs with decent data being expected. I can only see bad data being a market mover here. If all on expectation then I can see EURUSD moving to 1.0630-70.
Yellen speaks on Friday with the risk here that she sets market expectations for a hike or not in March. I cant see the Fed wanting to surprise the market with a hike and with a circa 40% chance being priced in she might want to guide the market to raise expectations. This scenario could very quickly see us testing the momentum region above.

On the euro side in the short term I don't think tapering is on the table so we are left with political risk. Risk from the US which may support the Euro and risk from Brexit and EU elections which will weigh on it.

My thoughts are a zig zag play 1.063x (1.067x max ext.) --> 1.049x --> 1.035x

Any thoughts?
  • #147,933
  • Edited 8:35am Feb 28, 2017 8:24am | Edited 8:35am
++++ Important fundamental and macro flows post ++++

Slightly miss in GDP forecast but nothing out of range. We are all set for the month and all markets look 'al dente' for next legs.

First highlight is from the US. As widely expected since elections, Trump announcing one of the largest increase in military spending in US history while offsetting it with cuts in public services and healthcare sectors.

That is one of the key dominos in Trump forecast before elections. Buy defence & security related stocks as we are going for a nice ride with the new government. Sadly for the world, war and conflict are coming to our theatres very soon (Gold is going to be very active this year) but more importantly for trading short term, this is a major push for OIL and commodities in general to finally POP.

We are sitting in major imminent break up for weeks in OIL and after this announcement we are literally 'minutes' away to trigger. I personally think wont hold this week but we need a flat track bully Trump (Iran will be ideal from a US foreign policy side) in the following hours to confirm and push. For those in CAD* watch out as we may get fireworks (and the good ones) especially in pair with both sides aligned (EC) in case of a break up in OIL while UC may enter in perma no trading / no man land if we get the Dollar leg too.

Finally, US equities look set to take 2347.xx unlocking a tradable from the opening range further extension (only magic lines here so) to 2405.xx as early as Trump tonight to kill Q1 at the very highs.

However, for those tracking the more important mid and long term flows around these area. S&P (the same in NQ and DJI) end up the month with a textbook of a major exhaustion (this is a notion we haven't discuss in detail in the thread...) leg. If US equities hold today as most expect too until Trump we will have pretty much clear a very tradable map for both the short and mid term in the US making things a lot simpler and easier to trade for the next few months in Equities.

Lots of action and an expansion of volatility across the board expected from today and will last for a good few weeks till the Spring.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,934
  • Feb 28, 2017 8:34am Feb 28, 2017 8:34am
Guys, out of subject but can you pm me trustable broker you work with or tried. Thanks in advance.
  • #147,935
  • Feb 28, 2017 8:54am Feb 28, 2017 8:54am
Still got to get through Congress on the defense spending. Sequestration makes that muddier. It's just an idea for now.
  • #147,936
  • Edited 9:17am Feb 28, 2017 9:03am | Edited 9:17am
Quoting sisse
++++ Important fundamental and macro flows post ++++ Slightly miss in GDP forecast but nothing out of range. We are all set for the month and all markets look 'al dente' for next legs. First highlight is from the US. As widely expected since elections, Trump announcing one of the largest increase in military spending in US history while offsetting it with cuts in public services and healthcare sectors. That is one of the key dominos in Trump forecast before elections. Buy defence & security related stocks as we are going for a nice ride with the...
Well considering the fact that US has been engaged in wars almost every year for decades, calling longs on defense stocks should be a no brainer no matter who steps into administration. Its just matter of timing and really finding the pick, LMT is a no brainer but other picks can be more difficult, and its seems like you are right on this one couse timing is closing in.
  • #147,937
  • Feb 28, 2017 9:19am Feb 28, 2017 9:19am
Quoting goosebone
Still got to get through Congress on the defense spending. Sequestration makes that muddier. It's just an idea for now.
I was trying to dig up some more details about spending plan but no luck. Military purchases are often hiden to the last point but there are usually hints ahead, would be useful info to have catalyst side for specific picks on equities.
  • #147,938
  • Feb 28, 2017 10:43am Feb 28, 2017 10:43am
Very strong numbers keep coming from the US and if Trump doesn't close the deal in the next few hours, NFP will do the trick to complete the momentum part of the RMT leg (hikes pricing around 55% now for March but for Q2 we are around 50% already !!!).

...and that was it for Europe. Europe going home with a rather upbeat end of the month in European Equities but the high of the Quarter looks already set with this W close.

On the Fx front Euro as widely anticipated for today trading 1.061x (only level in play all month long @goosebone ) for the Fix, while Sterling also chopping around and ending flawlessly on 1.243x.

All European currencies are clear and set from both the TA and FA side as there is very little in play until the risk events in the upcoming weeks trigger so Dollar in absolute full control of the FX board. There is nothing to see or do but let Dollar roll the dice starting as soon as today on the close.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,939
  • Feb 28, 2017 10:49am Feb 28, 2017 10:49am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} ... ----- A quick accountability post for those who called the flows yesterday: Shorts triggered for @primejarvis and the 'zig' short part @Fadhl (look awfully wrong flow call but still in
A quick accountability post update for those who called the flows last week. Only @Earleone still in play for this one ...

@primejarvis

Direct -> 1.056x [check] -> 1.047x -> Stopped out 1.061x [check]

@Earleone

Direct -> 1.061x [check...in play] -> TP1 1.049 -> TP2 1.039X

@Fadhl

Zigzag 1.054 [check] -> 1.045 -> 1.066 -> 1.078 and up to 1.10 (Out of range for such a micro play) -> Stopped out 1.061x [check]

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,940
  • Feb 28, 2017 10:55am Feb 28, 2017 10:55am
Seems very normal now the monthly
close @ 1.061x, must of misunterstood that post about 1.052x level in play and same trades, same all but not same levels.


As for the momebtum play I have to guess right now that it would be a spike up like us election night and December ecb?
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