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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,901
  • Feb 25, 2017 6:04pm Feb 25, 2017 6:04pm
something useless to say


Forex THEN: draw trendlines and use Elliott waves and harmonics, s/r, a bunch of indicators boom you're there. Millionaire. Some people attaching a few tools and selling it as a holy grail. Buzzzz wrong.


In the meantime: don't forget to learn and apply a strict MM for those HGs. Without it your holy grail becomes evil cup! Buzzzz, not necessarily.


Forex NOW: I found Holy Grail!!! Oh really!! What's that? Order flow and VOLUME. They're all the things big boys do, oh and supply and demand. Anything else is BS. Boom millionaire. So what about trend line and other things? They are just some connected dots and stupid lagging calculators. Buzzzz wrong. (and the same MM story)


And EAs are always there.


The reality hasn't changed much. New people never realize that being a trader is something beyond those things. Someone should stop them from monetary suicide and people should be required to get a license before entering trading business. But the reality is who cares. That's the way trading world works and so called big boys latch like leeches into so called retail traders and suck their money until either they learn how to coexist or get stone broke.

  • #147,902
  • Feb 26, 2017 1:43am Feb 26, 2017 1:43am
[quote=sisse;9597139]{quote}

" I still believe the core and real US will prevail at the end "

I don't believe there is a "core" here, I think we are lost. Just look how these fools drive, it's like a game to them.

Anyway, Trump won the election by one of two ways:

  1. The landslide was too big for the DNC ops to turn the result.
  2. The central banks need a scapegoat.

In ether case it is Trump's mandate to roll up the compromised thirty percent of the legislators who are either bribed
or compromised in some other way. Let it roll.

If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #147,903
  • Edited 9:47am Feb 26, 2017 8:36am | Edited 9:47am
Quoting gammase1
{quote} Why would the Fed need or want to liquidate $5 trillion in the short or medium term? It would be sheer stupidity for them to try such a thing, also unnecessary and counter-productive in relation to their objectives. The housing of these bonds on the Fed's balance sheet has generated significant profits in recent years, accumulating well over $100bn in interest income each year, the majority of which is paid to the Treasury with a lesser amount used to pay interest of 0.25% on commercial bank reserves and meet other operational costs. As...
This was a very interesting couple of comments a while back between you and @ingmarforex. I was thinking the issue of unwinding the balance sheet could become the more important factor in how we trade FED expectations in the coming mid or longer term especially if normalization is "well underway" around the time Yellen is done. You both had interesting takes on it. The article linked below is a relevant opinion (if we can call Mr Bernanke relevant for a moment).
I have a noob question:
When you mentioned the intervention by the FED (buying 10 year paper to combat a hypothetical spike in yields in your example) as a somewhat regular part of the FEDs daily business, is that, in your opinion, what the author is referring to when he says "further management", "restarting reinvestment" and/or from the older FED minutes "the process should not be reversed" in the quote below? Or is theirs just a reference to hypothetically firing up another full QE program after the unwinding has begun and how that would be a mistake for obvious reasons? I maybe making a false connection there and wanted to understand better. Thanks.


"In principle, avoiding asset sales would not necessarily preclude some active management of the balance sheet for policy purposes. For example, the FOMC could respond to evolving conditions by restarting reinvestment at some point, or it could vary the pace at which reinvestment is phased out. I worry though that, in practice, attempts to actively manage the unwinding process could lead to unexpectedly large responses in financial markets, particularly if market participants (as in the taper tantrum) were to take a strong signal about future rate policies from changes in the balance sheets trajectory. To minimize such risks, it seems more prudent, once the end of reinvestment is announced, to allow that process to continue without further managementthat is, to simply allow the balance sheet to run down until it reaches the desired size, barring some major deterioration in the outlook. Indeed, in analyzing the effects of reducing the balance sheet at the September 2015 FOMC meeting, the Fed staff assumed, and appeared to advocate, precisely that: that once begun, the process of allowing excess assets to run off should not be reversed.
From a policy communications perspective, another reason to keep balance sheet policy simple and predictable is that it will help the public better interpret FOMC participants interest-rate projections. The degree of policy tightening implied by current interest-rate projections depends on whats happening with the balance sheet; if the size of the balance sheet is not tied to rate policy in a relatively straightforward way, then inferring the stance of policy implied by a given set of rate projections will be difficult or impossible."

Article quoted above:
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-b...balance-sheet/
  • #147,904
  • Edited 3:37pm Feb 26, 2017 3:23pm | Edited 3:37pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} This was a very interesting couple of comments a while back between you and @ingmarforex. I was thinking the issue of unwinding the balance sheet could become the more important factor in how we trade FED expectations in the coming mid or longer term especially if normalization is "well underway" around the time Yellen is done. You both had interesting takes on it. The article linked below is a relevant opinion (if we can call Mr Bernanke relevant for a moment). I have a noob question: When you mentioned the intervention by the FED (buying...
Deep, lets see.

If you dont mind me asking some questions back to get light on the questions you asked:
-Do you think FED members thought first what will likely to happen to assets before they start to tighten? Austrian economists think they dont have a clue, i would strongly dissagree, i am pretty sure its a game of thinking few steps forward before making a move.
-If so it strategically caps the moves on QE and hikes as it ties the game in future run together. Markets-assets-selloff-pre-buyback-yield control.
-In hiking cycle, what happens to the assets, reinvestment/reversing doesnt meant pushing new QE, simply hikes can do the job in current market environment where everyone is sitting on the 0 rates in DM world. Initially recycling assets are sold as part of reserves, but once the exports need the base to hold the value in base currency, those sold assets grow demand back. This seems like game of thinking few steps forward. FED yields control over assets so far above just buybacks, rates as long as no fear grows over US can have drastic impacts on 0 or lower end growth elsewhere.

Complex question take everything above with grains of salt couse i probably missed many points to make.
  • #147,905
  • Edited 7:28pm Feb 26, 2017 4:55pm | Edited 7:28pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Deep, lets see. If you dont mind me asking some questions back to get light on the questions you asked: -Do you think FED members thought first what will likely to happen to assets before they start to tighten? Austrian economists think they dont have a clue, i would strongly dissagree, i am pretty sure its a game of thinking few steps forward before making a move. -If so it strategically caps the moves on QE and hikes as it ties the game in future run together. Markets-assets-selloff-pre-buyback-yield control. -In hiking cycle, what happens...
Thanks for the reply. Would love to make an attempt at those but the questions are more than slightly above my pay grade. I'm pretty sure I understand your points there (Policy affects the value of the securites so there is FED control there too) but don't want to botch a theory on it. Hopefully someone with more knowledge on it than I have can shine some light.
  • #147,906
  • Feb 27, 2017 12:13am Feb 27, 2017 12:13am
First address of Trump tax plan to the Congress ... Got the article so shared it
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/b...w/57366194.cms
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,907
  • Feb 27, 2017 2:21am Feb 27, 2017 2:21am
Watch-out for *Sterling in the opening range. Brexit noise all over the place. The usual hiccups in between as long as politicians are in the middle.

Nothing particularly 'new' so far, Scotland referendum that is on the cards since day one making the headlines again, but more importantly and scary leak of UK just putting a permanent ban on EU citizens ...the backwardness and arrogance of this government is rather scary ...

Sterling (GU) unlocking the low of the range for a quick test of the lows while FTSE and the City will happily take the jitter news as it will guarantee BOE free money expectations until the political mess is clearer ....

Soft risk off triggering from Europe. This will be a pattern from Europe until French elections are cleared so better get use to it. Soft risk from Europe = Status Quo | Major risk from Europe = Panic (either via the UK or France).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,908
  • Feb 27, 2017 5:57am Feb 27, 2017 5:57am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I have a noob question: When you mentioned the intervention by the FED (buying 10 year paper to combat a hypothetical spike in yields in your example) as a somewhat regular part of the FEDs daily business, is that, in your opinion, what the author is referring to when he says "further management", "restarting reinvestment" and/or from the older FED minutes "the process should not be reversed" in the quote below? Or is theirs just a reference to hypothetically firing up another full QE program after the unwinding has begun and how that would...
That is a thoughtful piece by Bernanke - thank you for posting the link.

He makes some wise comments, I think, particularly that there is little evidence the current size of the Fed's balance sheet poses any real problems to the economy or market functioning. Bernanke indicates a preference to the idea of waiting to halt or slow re-investments until conventional policy tightening (rate hikes) are well under way. After all, if the size of the balance isn't a problem in and of itself, then why rush and risk unnecessary volatility?

Also, as he points out, it makes sense for the Fed to have a large supply of securities (assets) - a very large balance sheet - meaning they have ample ammunition to target the overnight rate and implement desired monetary policy (which they do by buying or selling of sometimes large quantities of securities, which adds or drains reserves from the system and brings the overnight rate to their desired target).

His idea of letting the balance sheet run off passively makes some sense, in that it could (if composition of maturing securities were clearly communicated) give some transparency and policy predictability to market participants, who would be able to factor in the impact of the Fed not re-investing proceeds from maturing securities.

In answer to your question, yes that is what he is referring to when he mentions "further management", which would imply slowing the balance sheet run-off by re-investing to targeted point(s) of the yield curve, in order to ensure that tightening isn't too severe. He is concerned on how market participants would react to any such tweak or change, citing risks of a repeat of the "taper tantrum" from 2013. Obviously, if the economic outlook deteriorated significantly, then the run-off could be halted for a stated period of time or another round of QE could, in theory, be fired up (although the latter would run into political resistance from the GOP).
  • #147,909
  • Feb 27, 2017 6:36am Feb 27, 2017 6:36am
A dull but jittery European session.

May trying to inflict maximum damage before French elections. Hate and anti European speech redux in full motion (understanding why is a ???? for anybody with an IQ higher than 60).

UK is running out of time. It will have the short term upper hand as long as the neonazis and nationalist in Holland and France are running for elections....but if things flop and France hold, we are setting for a major debacle in the UK government negotiations...

For now, markets completely hijack by politicians and risk in the very short term with solid numbers but i am afraid won't hold for much longer if we don't clear politics (and very backwards and dangerous ones) from the equation.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,910
  • Feb 27, 2017 7:04am Feb 27, 2017 7:04am
Quoting gammase1
{quote} That is a thoughtful piece by Bernanke - thank you for posting the link. He makes some wise comments, I think, particularly that there is little evidence the current size of the Fed's balance sheet poses any real problems to the economy or market functioning. Bernanke indicates a preference to the idea of waiting to halt or slow re-investments until conventional policy tightening (rate hikes) are well under way. After all, if the size of the balance isn't a problem in and of itself, then why rush and risk unnecessary volatility? Also, as...
Thanks for the reply. I think I'm starting to put the pieces together. It seems while there are variables that could complicate it, unwinding the balance sheet won't necessarily need to be the uberprecise surgical operation I was envisioning. They have some tools at their disposal to mitigate much of the risk. And the timing of it all being more flexible than I understood takes some pressure off of how it gets done. Appreciate it.
  • #147,911
  • Feb 27, 2017 8:04am Feb 27, 2017 8:04am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} T.... unwinding the balance sheet won't necessarily need to be the uberprecise surgical....
Not in play, not right now, not for the foreseeable future.

Thats a whole different beast that may awake in the mid term if we have major fck up in the economy...for now its not something to be tracking for trading ....my 2 cents ...

Eyes on NY, all technical week is expected except for the Commander-in-Tweet, talking heads in the UK or the usual flood of bot generated fake hate bias news helping the nationalist and populist around the world from the Murdoch / Breitbart and co media ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,912
  • Edited 8:34am Feb 27, 2017 8:10am | Edited 8:34am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Not in play, not right now, not for the foreseeable future. Thats a whole different beast that may awake in the mid term if we have major fck up in economy...for now its not something to be tracking for trading ....my 2 cents ... Eyes on NY, all technical week is expected except from the Commander-in-Tweet, talking heads in the UK or the usual flood of bot fake bias news helping the nationalist and populist around the world from the Murdoch and co media ... sisse
Right. Definitely out of scope right now. Wanted to learn a little about an older conversation in the thread that's all.

Seems on track to close M around 610/20 (obviously eyeing 520 for a real move.) The only thing on this side of Atlantic to push or pull on that would be Trump's speech to Congress. I bet it will be vague and non-committal enough to have no effect but we'll see. He should be occupied with the Oscars til then I imagine
  • #147,913
  • Feb 27, 2017 8:38am Feb 27, 2017 8:38am
Really useless thread, then also there are about 7400 pages and many more replies to this thread. Wish it could have more replies on the useful posts.
  • #147,914
  • Edited 12:08pm Feb 27, 2017 11:00am | Edited 12:08pm
Nice wipeout and mild squeeze on GU with 2385 mark, missed the darn thing, could be still some juice in it for longs. Will be tracking closely tomorrow in case if we have play for harsh extension leg.

Tracking ECAD and GU both on long plays tomorrow.
  • #147,915
  • Feb 27, 2017 1:12pm Feb 27, 2017 1:12pm
A rather dull day in Equities and most of the board but we have some majors alerts triggered in the FX board for the M close coming.

A bit out of timing in my books but Brexit jitters starting to weight very heavy in the UK after the latest Scottish noise and Europe hate non sense from May just before the upcoming wave for the Spring start. Sterling barely held today but it's triggering imminent break down alerts for the short term. The lows are naked but the 'scary' bit is not the lows but lots of macro stops hanging on air below.

A push from Dollar in the upcoming sessions (FED coming) could trigger a WTF moment in Sterling* as there is little to no interested in defending these levels without Brexit negotiations clear .... For now keeping mid term in neutral but it looks unstable (at least for now) to hold a Brexit risk or Dollar leg which both look seriously around the corner ...

On the Euro, we also have TA updates for the roll today ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,916
  • Feb 27, 2017 1:38pm Feb 27, 2017 1:38pm
Quoting sisse
A rather dull day in Equities and most of the board but we have some majors alerts triggered in the FX board for the M close coming. A bit out of timing in my books but Brexit jitters starting to weight very heavy in the UK after the latest Scottish noise and Europe hate non sense from May just before the upcoming wave for the Spring start. Sterling barely held today but it's triggering imminent break down alerts for the short term. The lows are naked but the 'scary' bit is not the lows but lots of macro stops hanging on air below. A push from Dollar...
What do you mean by macro stops? We cleared large portion already?
  • #147,917
  • Feb 27, 2017 2:14pm Feb 27, 2017 2:14pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} What do you mean by macro stops? We cleared large portion already?
Large hands since BOE are parked on the lows of the 1.23xx handle (V. Strong S and still holding now..hence outlook Neutral since Nov and now imminent break down alerts triggered).

Below is nothing and nobody for a long way -> next FA support of reference is around the mid highs of the 1.15xx (still locked) handle which is BOE max no way down level in case of extreme panic.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,918
  • Feb 27, 2017 2:24pm Feb 27, 2017 2:24pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Large hands since BOE are parked on the lows of the 1.23xx handle (V. Strong S and still holding now..hence outlook Neutral since Nov and now imminent break down alerts triggered). Below is nothing and nobody for a long way -> next FA support of reference is around the mid highs of the 1.15xx (still locked) handle which is BOE max no way down level in case of extreme panic. sisse
Ok, just when i thought 235X can be discarded as done deal after 2385. Either way i know my play for tomorrow, besides/before 2385 i dont see anything naked for now. Failure of mild squeeze opens a drop, before that ill play longs, if failure i dont have play.

Got some on ECAD, gona move stops to BE quickly and add in early London if i get some more.
  • #147,919
  • Edited 3:26pm Feb 27, 2017 3:12pm | Edited 3:26pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Ok, just when i thought 235X can be discarded as done deal after 2385. Either way i know my play for tomorrow, besides/before 2385 i dont see anything naked for now. Failure of mild squeeze opens a drop, before that ill play longs, if failure i dont have play. Got some on ECAD, gona move stops to BE quickly and add in early London if i get some more.
Things are happening very fast in the UK. Pay attention to what is going on the political side as the trigger wont come from the macro economic front, neither from the TA side.

What started as asking to consider leaving the EU or reforming, in less than 6 months is ending in leaving the common market, custom union, going back to WTO standards, leaving all international cooperation, education, research, space and environmental agreements and with a potential wipe out of all the basic labour, economic and internal market rules with an island on the border to split in pieces...and you name it as there are 12500 (literally) sector and directives to regulate and discuss.

The average Joe is just starting to think that we are getting over board (it supposed to be a democracy) but is still distracted thanks to the strength and austerity reforms of the economy before the vote.

You can run but you can't hide for much longer. The current government crossed the line of what was supposed to be referendum and its insulting all their neighbours in the continent ...nothing comes for free and the toll for the lack of planning, losing access to largest and richest market in world, killing London as the center for European clearing and banking, fragmenting the country and potentially losing Scotland and Ireland and the Dinosaurs (literally) making economic and foreign policy in the UK is a recipe for disaster guarantee !!!!

The City and the big companies (UK and foreign) are in bed and happily squeezing May and the 12 monkeys behind closed doors. They have the government caught by their balls threatening to 'leave' or 'pull out' if demands and bargains are not meet with the BOE (the only serious public institution with a plan) keeping the macro numbers afloat flooding cash and expectations but inflation is on the limit.

Another 5% or 10% devaluation and its just 'game over' as printing money and low interest rates wont hold the impact on the real economy after Brexit starts.

My 2 cents, pay more attention in the UK on the political side rather than the macro front (bar inflation).

As long as EU has election unsettle, the UK government will keep the arrogant bullying attitude but if things hold in the rest of Europe the UK will be left alone with 28 not so happy countries, a country split with Scotland and Ireland on the verge to leave and the other +50% of people outside of Brexitland in the major cities that produce 80% of the UK GDP rather unhappy with England going back to the 19th century replacing their friends, allies, trading and cultural partners with a Nationalistic/populist US (IMO that will be the death sentence for MAY as even most hard core Brexiters hate to be compared and aligned with Trump)....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,920
  • Feb 27, 2017 3:50pm Feb 27, 2017 3:50pm
...and we are rolling. An irrelevant but rather very bearish close with yearly bulls hanging by a very thin thread now sending screaming SOS signals as they will need a good hand to keep holding if we lose floor this week.

More importantly and for those who are following/trading the mid and short term trades in the EURO, we have officially the 'infamous' momentum play on the map. As the last 3 times in the last year or so can you spot the play? ...

No further comments, I let it open for those interested in exploring deeper and for those newcomers lurking around to explore the back-posts....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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