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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,441
  • Feb 2, 2017 1:55pm Feb 2, 2017 1:55pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Why so defensive ... I just asked why? ...just part of the iteration? ...as you see I wanted to [miss]lead you to this answer. ... How can you change/make opinions in 4 hours intraday moves. My points is and was if you decided to 'choose your poison' as we discussed yesterday on the FED flow play, you should have already decided your trade in advance not by today intraday action. The test of highs or the current micro session intraday flow should / has to be irrelevant !!!! for your trading as you have: --> Your capital risk ->...
Man, I'm sorry if that seemed defensive (text is never accurate communication). Quite the contrary. I really valued the lesson I got when I rushed in to a position when common sense said there was no rush required so i honestly just meant i didnt want to repeat that mistake. No defense whatsoever.
I guess I was thinking your" iteration" choose your poison call last night was a rhetorical way of stating where we are at or i would have said short all the way. I certainly pick that from the options you just put up. I'm not longing because my outlook is short eu.
You are right again. I am paying attention to intraday for no good reason. I guess I thought i should either get my 830 broken before entering. Or at least watch to see what nfp will do before i end up with gun jumping regrets. But all that deviates from the plan I made so I hear you loud and clear.
  • #147,442
  • Feb 2, 2017 2:09pm Feb 2, 2017 2:09pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Man, I'm sorry if that seemed defensive (text is never accurate communication). Quite the contrary. I really valued the lesson I got when I rushed in to a position when common sense said there was no rush required so i honestly just meant i didnt want to repeat that mistake. No defense whatsoever. I guess I was thinking your" iteration" choose your poison call last night was a rhetorical way of stating where we are at or i would have said short all the way. I certainly pick that from the options you just put up. I'm not longing because...
lol.... not not at all ... I am enjoying seeing you think out loud publicly. I am pushing you on purposes ...you are helping a lot of people around with this conversation, believe me ...

In any case, track 1.073x for the roll and we'll talk later...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,443
  • Feb 2, 2017 2:13pm Feb 2, 2017 2:13pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} lol.... not not at all ... I am enjoying seeing you think out loud publicly. I am pushing you on purposes ...you are helping a lot of people around with this conversation, believe me ... In any case, track 1.073x for the roll and we'll talk later... sisse
I have been a bit of an exhibitionist lately. Tracking 727 for the price trigger.
  • #147,444
  • Feb 2, 2017 2:48pm Feb 2, 2017 2:48pm
"This Is Unacceptable" - Congressman Slams Yellen For Prioritizing Foreign Banks Over "America's Interests"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...domestic-inter

If this is true, Trump seems inviting Yellen to resign! I guess the consequences for US$ & equities.
  • #147,445
  • Feb 2, 2017 3:20pm Feb 2, 2017 3:20pm
Quoting Fadhl
"This Is Unacceptable" - Congressman Slams Yellen For Prioritizing Foreign Banks Over "America's Interests" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...domestic-inter If this is true, Trump seems inviting Yellen to resign! I guess the consequences for US$ & equities.
that is the reason Fed is independent. and also a good reason we don't have "kings in america." i don't always agree with the fed, but would never agree with congress or a president controlling it. i am quite sure yellen is shoring up the world access to usd. because the shit with the king, could hit the fan any time. w/o liquidity the whole system is vulnerable to a single tweet. destabilizing the world financial system is not in the u.s. interest.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #147,446
  • Feb 2, 2017 3:40pm Feb 2, 2017 3:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} like i said thousands of times. ... most Americans are living in a larger house than their parents or grandparents. yet they were lead to believe things sucked.. let them send their sons to defend bs.
--> We have been in these forums for a long time. We have exchanged views in threads, PMs, tweeter and etc, comments, markets talk, trades for god knows how many times. Most of the time and although coming from different angles and tools we agree with the TA main direction but when we disagree ...man we really disagree in very long and some still unsettle trading discussion ...

--> Memorable discussions like OIL at $140 at $70 and $40 and even lately at $26, same with Euro timing for the selloff back in 2011/2012, etc. Despite who got it right or wrong at the end the only thing I used to disagree and accuse you is that you were a Perma-bear (I don't think that since a long time) and extreme doom bias was not really the best approach as market usually tend to come back to equilibrium before extending one side or the other, etc etc ..

--> However, this time things are coming so fast and so many deep changes happening in the word that my outlook is getting very very (probably too much) gloomy for the foreseeable future. All the pieces are falling into place, like a perfect watch. What makes things even worse, the most intelligent people across the world are raising urgent alerts across all domains, history is repeating [unbelievable really] step by step and the wrong and most inept and dangerous people are taking over the world.

This time I strongly agree with you but I am honestly hoping that if I am going to get it wrong with one conversation with you, is on this one as what it's in play goes far beyond trading and markets ....

Only my strong conviction that extreme 'greed' in the short term from you know who, that are the really puppet masters in both sides of the Atlantic behind Trump and Co here in the UK keep me on check and balance not to go all in doom mode ...at least for now ....will see but things are not looking good and we may have already crossed the line of no return ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,447
  • Feb 2, 2017 4:02pm Feb 2, 2017 4:02pm
Quoting Fadhl
"This Is Unacceptable" - Congressman Slams Yellen For Prioritizing Foreign Banks Over "America's Interests" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...domestic-inter If this is true, Trump seems inviting Yellen to resign! I guess the consequences for US$ & equities.
Yes unacceptable.

I think there is a reason that FED has leaked this letter. ( I assume it is they that has leaked it ) . Dont think Yellen resign unless she is forced to.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,448
  • Feb 2, 2017 4:03pm Feb 2, 2017 4:03pm
Uneventful US session but a very interesting roll in the Euro....

No further comments I'll let @goosebone walk/think us through if he decide to go for it until tomorrow NFP ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,449
  • Feb 2, 2017 4:22pm Feb 2, 2017 4:22pm
MAP: Long: .074x-->.084x-->.094x/.097x
Short: .074x-->.064x --.054x

OUTLOOK IS Sell Short/Mid/Long

I am looking only to Sell:

Direct play: Sell .074x-->.064x-->.054x NFP OVERSHOOT

Zig Zag: .074x--.084x--.064x NFP INLINE/Slight miss

Direct play (Miss and UNDERSHOOT).074x-->.084x-->.097x.

Key Levels:
Momentum Leg in play @.034x
.097x, .104x-.1080 as Exhaustion Cap- I can't see this but anything w Trump tweet and undershoot is possible.
  • #147,450
  • Edited 10:25pm Feb 2, 2017 4:25pm | Edited 10:25pm
Quoting sisse
Uneventful US session but a very interesting roll in the Euro.... No further comments I'll let @goosebone walk/think us through if he decide to go for it until tomorrow NFP ... sisse
After every interesting close comes an interesting open . A couple miles thru Asia and Europe between us and nfp. If/when I pull any triggers Ill go tell it on the mountain you can count on it.
  • #147,451
  • Feb 2, 2017 4:48pm Feb 2, 2017 4:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i want to wrong too. but i would not bet against this one. the next war is always coming. it just may be sped up now. . its real bullets, not an erector set in this toy box.. do i feel safe with a drugstore cowboy who never had a real street fight? no. not with his finger on the button. i lost one son already, i don't have another to give. some one else will pay the cost.
Jesus Gator I'm sorry to read your words. Condolences and respect for your sacrifice.
  • #147,452
  • Feb 2, 2017 5:00pm Feb 2, 2017 5:00pm
The fed has no exit strategy i have been following there balance sheet for sometime now. Everytime they publish i check it. Now the problem is how they heck they gonna exit with having for 5 trillion of treasuries in there portefolio.
Preventing a depression in 2008 looks easier and more straight-forward to me than the devilish predicament the Fed faces when QE finally is played out and the central bank is left holding a record amount of securities that one way or another are going to start losing value as the cost of money creeps higher. All geniuses need apply at Fed with their schemes to get us out of this trap. We are going to have to start looking at this problem early in 2014 without denying its severity and multiple ramifications.
I say it will be impossible to liquidate $5
trillion in any short term or medium time period without causing the bond to crash and after that it will pull the stock marketand the housing market again pension funds will go up in smoke time will tell but for now it looks all gloom will see where the fed will come up with.
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  • #147,453
  • Feb 2, 2017 5:16pm Feb 2, 2017 5:16pm
Quoting ingmarforex
The fed has no exit strategy ....I say it will be impossible to liquidate $5 trillion in any short term or medium time period without causing the bond to crash and after that it will pull the stock marketand the housing market again pension funds will go up in smoke time will tell but for now it looks all gloom will see where the fed will come up with. {image}
Very interesting point of view.

What it struck me is the correlation with the interwar period so basically just following this argument and only playing dooms day, the only potential solution will be a world wipe out (e.g 1940/5) and there after the balance could be channeling through a external redistribution of liquidity in the bond markets in a 'Marshall Plan' 2.0 to rebuild the global economy while liquidating the dead wood until inflation trigger the rest of the cycle ....

Just thinking out loud ...your chart got me thinking ....I'll bookmark it but what would be your theoretical way out???

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,454
  • Feb 2, 2017 11:19pm Feb 2, 2017 11:19pm
Quoting ingmarforex
The fed has no exit strategy i have been following there balance sheet for sometime now. Everytime they publish i check it. Now the problem is how they heck they gonna exit with having for 5 trillion of treasuries in there portefolio. Preventing a depression in 2008 looks easier and more straight-forward to me than the devilish predicament the Fed faces when QE finally is played out and the central bank is left holding a record amount of securities that one way or another are going to start losing value as the cost of money creeps higher. All geniuses...
I always assumed that they would be holding to maturity. Did you consider that option, why couldn't they do that? Any data on what the capital-weighted term to maturity is?
  • #147,455
  • Feb 3, 2017 3:40am Feb 3, 2017 3:40am
What happened to BOJ, Kuroda went soft over last two years...
  • #147,456
  • Feb 3, 2017 4:56am Feb 3, 2017 4:56am
Trump to take steps rolling back financial regulations
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politi....html?adkey=bn

Is this the steps hinting to the fiscal package we are waiting for ?
  • #147,457
  • Feb 3, 2017 6:17am Feb 3, 2017 6:17am
Quoting ingmarforex
The fed has no exit strategy i have been following there balance sheet for sometime now. Everytime they publish i check it. Now the problem is how they heck they gonna exit with having for 5 trillion of treasuries in there portefolio. Preventing a depression in 2008 looks easier and more straight-forward to me than the devilish predicament the Fed faces when QE finally is played out and the central bank is left holding a record amount of securities that one way or another are going to start losing value as the cost of money creeps higher. All geniuses...
Why would the Fed need or want to liquidate $5 trillion in the short or medium term? It would be sheer stupidity for them to try such a thing, also unnecessary and counter-productive in relation to their objectives.

The housing of these bonds on the Fed's balance sheet has generated significant profits in recent years, accumulating well over $100bn in interest income each year, the majority of which is paid to the Treasury with a lesser amount used to pay interest of 0.25% on commercial bank reserves and meet other operational costs.

As the Fed reduces its balance sheet - which will be done on a gradual basis, as and when the economy needs such policy tightening (inflation ticking up and full employment stoking wage/price pressures) - it will gradually sell securities into the market (or let them run to maturity), to raise either short or longer term interest rates. This will drain the reserves in the banking system, meaning the Fed will accordingly be paying out less in interest to commercial banks. Every $1 reduction in it's bond holdings will drain exactly $1 from reserves.

The Fed does not need to be re-capitalised to meet interest payments and obligations; it merely makes the payments as necessary (aka "printing money"). And any paper losses will be offset by a deferred asset appearing on their balance, representing future profits it won't have to pay to the Treasury. We are, thankfully, no longer on the gold standard, thus the central bank are not constrained by a finite amount of dollars.

Therefore, as the Fed's balance sheet is reduced, the Treasury (aka, the public purse) will receive far less in profits from the Fed, but this will be offset by a stronger economy generating far more in tax revenues. If any reduction in the balance sheet causes, say, an unwanted spike in the 10-year yield, one that is far in excess of what is required to meet price stability objectives, then the Fed can easily intervene by purchasing 10-year paper as part of its monetary operations. The markets control long term interest rates only so far as the government allows (look at the BOJ policy of capping the yield on 10-year JGBs at or close to 0%).

On a daily basis, the Fed buys and sells securities in its open market operations, to help keep the overnight interest rate within its target range. Any winding down of its balance sheet need only be done in order to meet similar objectives.
  • #147,458
  • Feb 3, 2017 7:10am Feb 3, 2017 7:10am
20 minutes to news.

I try two levels with sell stop 8 to 10 pips below if touched on spike with 25 pips SL. Both levels has confluence with intraday fibs.

I expect inline or better for the nonfarm numbers. 2 weeks jubileum for Trump so I do not rule out some tweet that mess nonfarm up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,459
  • Feb 3, 2017 7:22am Feb 3, 2017 7:22am
...here we go for NFP.

Expecting a positive number today. Markets aligned for inline / overshoot fortoday. Not many expectations on the macro front as trend in US numbers is very solid.

Equities eager for good news at the very highs, any other outcome will weight heavy in an already tired stock markets short term and will put us straight back to Trump tweet mode until further data and details on the fiscal front.

On the FX board, Dollar in play all week long sitting in key area. On the macroeconomic front there is nothing to see as is all longs, however as we all know its hijacked by Trump the last few weeks trying to artificially keep it down via Tweeter instead of monetary policy so not much to see from NFP.

For the actual flows, we already discussed in detail for the FED so nothing to update with same levels, same trades, same all with a short term leg in play for today to join the already in play mid term and FED flow legs....

GL all trading, planning to trade or simply tracking NFP.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,460
  • Feb 3, 2017 7:32am Feb 3, 2017 7:32am
Overshoot in employment, earnings undershoot with revisions down...a mixed bag with a slightly soft tone.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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