EURUSD | Page 54665 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #1,093,281
  • Feb 25, 2017 2:08am Feb 25, 2017 2:08am
Quoting yanitsa
Blatantly obvious ! {image}
I understand you are on the BEAR side hence you intend to do mostly shorts.. just a quick one, what if this happens? Your previous response was quite confusing.. (It's obviously short on monthly ....which doesn't mean that it will continue lower)

Help me here.. You intend to do mostly shorts, but it doesn't mean it will continue lower? where is this going then?

If indeed it was that obvious, you could have given a better and straight forward response.. Just what I think.. Pls don't take it otherwise..

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDMonthlyobvious.jpg Size: 205 KB
  • #1,093,282
  • Feb 25, 2017 2:15am Feb 25, 2017 2:15am
Quoting Don96
{quote} It's not obvious

Weekly close is bearish, on the other hand it has 1.0520 and 1.0460 below important supports - it may touch 1.06xx but bears are still in control. The pressure can still be here until thursday.
  • #1,093,283
  • Feb 25, 2017 3:54am Feb 25, 2017 3:54am
Quoting tradel13
{quote} Also what is the white line? Because the price broke it a little
white line break +rsi was the bear signal. i expect this move to resolve around the blue square 1.055-ish if i remeber right
  • #1,093,284
  • Feb 25, 2017 6:15am Feb 25, 2017 6:15am
Quoting jusstin911
{quote} I understand you are on the BEAR side hence you intend to do mostly shorts.. just a quick one, what if this happens? Your previous response was quite confusing.. (It's obviously short on monthly ....which doesn't mean that it will continue lower) Help me here.. You intend to do mostly shorts, but it doesn't mean it will continue lower? where is this going then? If indeed it was that obvious, you could have given a better and straight forward response.. Just what I think.. Pls don't take it otherwise.. cheers {image}
I dont know where it is going , but if I open EUR posi , it will be short .
This has nothing to do with bulls and bears , if one trades for money , one prefers to be with the trend
  • #1,093,285
  • Feb 25, 2017 7:02am Feb 25, 2017 7:02am
I have done a bit of analysis on the EURUSD, for what I can see the euro is in a range since March 2015.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_9338263_EURUSD_2017-02-25_13-15-02.png Size: 33 KB





So if history repeats itself we are in quite a dangerous zone that could let to a possibile uptrend spike, otherwise if the low of the range is broken this will open the way to 0.80.

Pretty difficult situation indeed.

There are strong risks both sides.
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #1,093,286
  • Feb 25, 2017 7:10am Feb 25, 2017 7:10am
There are TWO scenarios:


1) The level around 1.03 is broken opening the way to the previous low around 0.80. In this case there are also strong geopolitical implications. If that happens Germany will become a new world superpower because it will gain massive competitive hedge. This will also benefit all other struggling european countries that could face a strong recovery with a competitive devalution. The euro will become "Italian lira 2.0", now we need to see how the other trading parterns will react...


2) The level holds in this case we could see the re-test of the previous high at 1.16.


I am more for the second scenario. Mainly because we have also a triple bottom. The real valution of the euro based on PPP is around 1.20 / 1.22.

If you draw a fibonacci retracement, the 50% is just around 1.22
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_9338263_EURUSD_2017-02-25_14-09-43.png Size: 50 KB
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #1,093,287
  • Feb 25, 2017 7:46am Feb 25, 2017 7:46am
Quoting Lacunoide
There are TWO scenarios: 1) The level around 1.03 is broken opening the way to the previous low around 0.80.....
we could see the re-test of the previous high at 1.16. ...
P is around 1.20 / 1.22. If you draw a fibonacci retracement, the 50% is just around 1.22 {image}
Â
While i appreciate your effort....enlighten us when will this happen??????
Next 3 years?? Next week???
Why bother posting such stuff????
Â
Free tip - go in the Swamp. Gator will be delighted
He was talking 1.11 euro yesterday 68.xx for UJ.
Hmm... poor guy. He's always long Euro and far fetched......When i said E is falling from 1.13 to 1.12 i was kicked out.!!! For a 100 pips only!!!! Now I'm affraid to walk outside There are gators waiting
Â
Now on topic.
While the short side is stronger... extension... channels.... I'm taking a short break from it. I expect a spike or measured move up. 1.0650 -0700 or more.
Then sell
Now 0560.
Â
U/Cad 3096....crazy fake pair.... I'll let it go lower then buy for 31xx.
GL.
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,093,288
  • Feb 25, 2017 7:51am Feb 25, 2017 7:51am
Quoting ForJangus
{quote} Going for 2 pips profit on a 1.5pip spread? Seriously?
YES... very serious!
  • #1,093,289
  • Feb 25, 2017 7:51am Feb 25, 2017 7:51am
EU H4 Chart Update and Outlook for Monday

Just like the Oscar nominations of this weekend is important for the movie industry so is 1.0587 level for traders..

My guess is that this level will be retested on Monday. If it can hold we will see a further drop that could complete a Bullish 3 Drives pattern (which I didn't mark on the chart but pattern traders will know what I mean) and also complete the potentia Gartley I started mentioning weeks ago.. Keep in mind that in case of this scenario playing out the Shark pattern will be cancelled and only the Cypher will remain. (Which means that a completion of the Gartley with price reaching 1.0450 will not change my long-term bullish bias towards 1.09 levels)

Short and Simple: On Monday I expect a retest towards 1.0587 and chances are it will bounce back from there for new lows.

Stay Green
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-27-February-2017.jpg Size: 223 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,093,290
  • Edited 10:29am Feb 25, 2017 8:06am | Edited 10:29am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
EU H4 Chart Update and Outlook for Monday Just like the Oscar nominations of this weekend is important for the movie industry so is 1.0587 level for traders.. My guess is that this level will be retested on Monday. If it can hold we will see a further drop that could complete a Bullish 3 Drives pattern (which I didn't mark on the chart but pattern traders will know what I mean) and also complete the potentia Gartley I started mentioning weeks ago.. Keep in mind that in case of this scenario playing out the Shark pattern will be cancelled and only...
I'm thinking this week in other way. We have possible hike at March. Then the normal movement is go higher for take better short price, Now seem that is the movement but last bear candle can do price go lower. If happens this is almost sure we are taken dip price for future buy ( because finally hike will not happens ). This bear movement is good for kill current longs too. But now its everything with much news noise...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #1,093,291
  • Feb 25, 2017 8:08am Feb 25, 2017 8:08am
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} While i appreciate your effort....enlighten us when will this happen?????? Next 3 years?? Next week??? Why bother posting such stuff???? Free tip - go in the Swamp. Gator will be delighted He was talking 1.11 euro yesterday 68.xx for UJ. Hmm... poor guy. He's always long Euro and far fetched......When i said E is falling from 1.13 to 1.12 i was kicked out.!!! For a 100 pips only!!!! Now I'm affraid to walk outside There are gators waiting Now on topic. While the short side is stronger... extension... channels.......
This time only 1.11 I remember all 2016 he was talking about 1.17 lvl.
  • #1,093,292
  • Edited 10:23am Feb 25, 2017 8:28am | Edited 10:23am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} I'm thinking this week in ohter way. We have possible hike at March. Then the normal movement is go higher for take better short price, Now seem that is the movement but last bear candle can do price go lower. If happens this is almost sure we are taken dip price for future buy ( because finally hike will not happens ). This bear movement is good for kill current longs too. But now its everything with much news noise...
I hear you.. that's why I said IF 1.0587 holds. If it doesn't and if you are right the shark pattern must be taken very serious.. But speaking just for Monday and since I don't rely heavily on fundamentals (I do care to take them into consideration especially with the big red news) in general I trade what I see.. and I try to quickly react on non-expected market behaviour..

However for now what matters to me is again the level I mentioned. Higher levels are of course possible but technically bulls are limited with the red trendlines I drew like a triangle. 1.0640 to 1.0670 area is roughly the upper zone of this big triangle on my chart and the level that would limit bulls.

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,093,293
  • Feb 25, 2017 8:36am Feb 25, 2017 8:36am
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} While i appreciate your effort....enlighten us when will this happen?????? Next 3 years?? Next week??? Why bother posting such stuff???? Free tip - go in the Swamp. Gator will be delighted He was talking 1.11 euro yesterday 68.xx for UJ. Hmm... poor guy. He's always long Euro and far fetched......When i said E is falling from 1.13 to 1.12 i was kicked out.!!! For a 100 pips only!!!! Now I'm affraid to walk outside There are gators waiting Now on topic. While the short side is stronger... extension... channels.......
Hey SP.. cruising down my chart, I think I also observe that spike but my 1.058** will be the judge
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 69 KB
  • #1,093,294
  • Feb 25, 2017 9:25am Feb 25, 2017 9:25am
Quoting yanitsa
Blatantly obvious ! {image}
It really isn't...
  • #1,093,295
  • Edited 1:25pm Feb 25, 2017 12:01pm | Edited 1:25pm
Quoting Lacunoide
There are TWO scenarios: 1) The level around 1.03 is broken opening the way to the previous low around 0.80. In this case there are also strong geopolitical implications. If that happens Germany will become a new world superpower because it will gain massive competitive hedge. This will also benefit all other struggling european countries that could face a strong recovery with a competitive devalution. The euro will become "Italian lira 2.0", now we need to see how the other trading parterns will react... 2) The level holds in this case we could...
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} While i appreciate your effort....enlighten us when will this happen?????? Next 3 years?? Next week??? Why bother posting such stuff???? Free tip - go in the Swamp. Gator will be delighted He was talking 1.11 euro yesterday 68.xx for UJ. Hmm... poor guy. He's always long Euro and far fetched......When i said E is falling from 1.13 to 1.12 i was kicked out.!!! For a 100 pips only!!!! Now I'm affraid to walk outside There are gators waiting Now on topic. While the short side is stronger... extension... channels.......
Yes why bother writing your technical opinion about possible scenarios. Instead talk about garbage, brag about a demo account, post ego boosting crap like the one below, then you will be more welcome.


Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} Hey Jusstin Good stuff. Including the 50% retraces.. Still inside the channel..... That poor guy 2 days ago.... Using me as contrarian indicator Must have blown 6 accounts. 665% plus by now. I got impatient ...should sell U/C next week.... Euro nicely dropped. Bulls not here yet For the guy that asked before - i didn't recommend longs. Good weekend!! {image}

NKPMG, you really need to get a grip. You were thrown away from Gator's thread not because of the thing you mentioned. You were back then talking nonsense such as robber banks - you still do -and your tone was unreasonably unpleasant. There is no robber bank! Not in the way you keep complaining about, stop this nonsense. You have a demo account where you want to satisfy yourself, which is fine. Even if you have a live account, do you honestly believe that all the high street banks are after your or my irrelevant amount of capital??!!?? Lets try to make an educated guess about all the retailer forex traders live accounts, how much do you believe it is in dollar amount? 1 billion, 2 billion USD. Lets make it 10 B. Do you think this is a relevant amount for high street bank traders to work on?

Do you know what the delta values of a 2 year experienced front office trader in a prime bank - equities only - has? It is averaging around 100 M for each, this is just equity traders. Do you know how many traders are working on the equities side? What about fixed income,bond traders. They average a delta limit of a billion dollar each. Derivatives and all the other investment products.. And lately the forex traders of prime banks, central banks, fund of funds, hedge funds..

Do you understand the depth we are in? Yet you keep talking and advocating about robber banks trying to steal your demo money! seriously man, Think about what I am saying above. I am not here to insult you and personally I like you tbh. You are a young soul trying to get a piece of the cake to my eyes. I am begging you to stop humiliating yourself with the "I know it all" attitude.

None of us knows everything about the investment world, we cant. It is an ongoing process. But once you get rid of the nonsense we personally make up and start reading, observing and analysing in a professional manner we happen to be in the game even it is just for the crumbs.

Please dont take my post in the wrong way. This is a wake up call from a friend, accept the call.
  • #1,093,296
  • Edited 2:43pm Feb 25, 2017 1:38pm | Edited 2:43pm
Quoting Connors
{quote} {quote} Yes why bother writing your technical opinion about possible scenarios. Instead talk about garbage, brag about a demo account, post ego boosting....
... and start reading, observing and analysing in a professional manner we happen to be in the game even it is just for the crumbs. Please dont take my post in the wrong way. This is a wake up call from a friend, accept the call.
Â
Hi Connors

I respect most of your posts. And thanks, for the time and advice....
I was going to completely ignore this post.....but the end of it i liked. (i read first, last and middle 2 sentences of anything before discarding it. Free advice )
Â
But I'm not going to answer fully - not unless 6 people (ignored don't count )here express interest and want me to answer. Time is precious....
One thing only - Forex is PROBABILITY question.
WE ALL DO TECHNICAL analysis. How we do it, present it or explain the "unexplainable " is the only difference. I'm talking small frames (Daily, 4H or less)..... Who's to say who is right???
Â
6 -8 months ago I decided i will not get into arguments. I quit other groups of varying crazy levels. I'm happy now!!
Â
I prepared a poster for such occasions - when i post it, NO OFFENCE TO ANYBODY !!!
So.....if 6 people ask for a counter-opinion, I'll write one. I increased 5 into 6 to reflect my 660% account When do I see yours ?
Otherwise I'm forgetting this
Â
I have 200 people on ignore for good reasons 
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,093,297
  • Feb 25, 2017 1:46pm Feb 25, 2017 1:46pm
EURUSD Monthly Outlook

Below you can see my widest view for the EURUSD pair. The first detail that we should notice is the strong red monthly support line at 1.0450.

We have one big channel (thick blue) and another small channel inside it (thin red).
1) Price is still on the lower half of the blue channel (shows bear strength following the lower edge of this channel but might have been exhausted)
2) Price is on top half of the small red channel (shows that bulls are trying to escape above it but also might have been exhausted)

For bulls the thick 1.08 - 1.12 zone is the nearest resistance for the monthly chart.

Since bulls are nearer to their breakout level the question we must ask is: How much power do bulls need to break out of this thick channel and does EURO data and psychology provide that strength? If they can't succeed soon bears will get another chance to retest lower targets.

Another important detail is that fib 61.8 is already defeated and we are now inside the closer half nearer to fib 78.6. That makes me think that market might want to meet fib 78.6 and even lower levels in coming months. This place where price is positioned right now is another difficulty for bulls.

Short and Simple: Bulls have short-term chance to escape the small channel but they must hurry to make monthly candle close above 1.0630. (Only 2 trading days left) My senses tell me that bulls will not be able to achieve that so personally my short-term bias is therefore bearish. I am open to hear your thoughts about my monthly view. I am trying to see the market from all angles possible and I like to read posts that do the same.

Stay Green
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-27-February-2017-Monthly.jpg Size: 297 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,093,298
  • Feb 25, 2017 2:32pm Feb 25, 2017 2:32pm
Guys please respect each other.
The best way of living a happy life is to accept each other the way we are.
We should be happy with the fact that we are different and everyone of us is an unique individual.
Based on that fact, we have different approaches of making analysis and implementing our decisions.

Ignoring, arguing and insulting each other is not an option, guys.
Share your knowledge and experiences and learn from each other whatever you find useful to improve yourself.

Happy trading. Trade smart and look forward to another profitable week.

Cheers
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #1,093,299
  • Feb 25, 2017 2:41pm Feb 25, 2017 2:41pm
Quoting NotAtrader
Guys please respect each other. The best way of living a happy life is to accept each other the way we are. We...
your knowledge and experiences and learn from each other whatever you find useful to improve yourself. Happy trading. Trade smart and look forward to another profitable week. Cheers
 
NaT you are smart cookie!!!
Do you want place in my church?
 The role of Smart And Friendly And Resistant to Ignorance (SAFARI) is just for you
 
GL all. 
I'm watching a kid's movie. 
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,093,300
  • Feb 25, 2017 2:49pm Feb 25, 2017 2:49pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
EURUSD Monthly Outlook Below you can see my widest view for the EURUSD pair. The first detail that we should notice is the strong red monthly support line at 1.0450. We have one big channel (thick blue) and another small channel inside it (thin red). 1) Price is still on the lower half of the blue channel (shows bear strength following the lower edge of this channel but might have been exhausted) 2) Price is on top half of the small red channel (shows that bulls are trying to escape above it but also might have been exhausted) For bulls the thick...

Quoting Connors
{quote} I think 1.0626 should not be taken, it will confirm the 1.0608 break for me. I will seek a short entry as close as possible to that.

I agree with your view, we do have very close numbers that we pay attention to.

I have 1.0626 as the 71.4% ret level and it is one of the key levels I take trades on. Any close above it on even small time frames, it will confirm the break of 1.0608.

To be honest and like you mentioned in your earlier post, I doubt it can be tested now next few days. The 30M bar we have witnessed on friday is strong reversal bar from 1.0617 without even a wick.

However 1.0520 test may open up a test of it since there is a hidden gap between 1.0594 and 1.0602 depending on the size of the stops that are placed.

Judging by the technical aspects you have on the chart, I believe you are aware of the real target of the bears. It is not 1.0520 or 1.0460, they want to eliminate the possibility of a run to 1.10xxs in the first half of the year. For that they need a new 14-15 year low. Whether they will succeed is a million dollar question. Clearly we are at very interesting levels and I am dying to see bulls take over since shorting into multi year lows is a physchological challenge for me, I know I should trade the trend but it is hard.
537 traders viewing now