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AUD/USD

  • #100,841
  • Feb 24, 2017 2:36am Feb 24, 2017 2:36am
Quoting eqshack
Shes so stubborn. Still short from 0.7736 and holding! Would love to see 0.7590 area
Same here its starting to look like there is some divergence from nzd. Next week looks promising for us
  • #100,842
  • Feb 24, 2017 2:44am Feb 24, 2017 2:44am
If we get bad CAD data then it should take AUD down also.. will have fun soon
Quoting Windstrown
{quote} Same here its starting to look like there is some divergence from nzd. Next week looks promising for us
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #100,843
  • Feb 24, 2017 3:38am Feb 24, 2017 3:38am
Quoting eqshack
Shes so stubborn. Still short from 0.7736 and holding! Would love to see 0.7590 area
I agree with your assessment. Believe its going down to the .75 level
“The most valuable commodity I know of is information”
  • #100,844
  • Feb 24, 2017 3:53am Feb 24, 2017 3:53am
So continuing with fundamentals , this is an example

Q: Is the commodity price rebound reflected in the AUD?
Not fully. For the first time in years, AUD appears undervalued vs. the terms of trade, which have
recovered significantly following the bounce in iron ore and coal prices since Oct-16. Going forward,
the better commodity story should support the AUD from a flow perspective – our economists expect
the trade deficit (~1% of GDP in 2016) to turn into a record large surplus in 2017. Even if, as our
commodity analysts expect, some retracement in prices is likely later in 2017, our flow analysis suggests
that our year-end AUD/USD forecast is consistent with an iron ore price of $65/t (vs. >$90/t spot).


There is always someone saying it's going up , and someone saying it's going down...which one do you believe?
  • #100,845
  • Feb 24, 2017 3:54am Feb 24, 2017 3:54am
So, PA still bullish
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  • #100,846
  • Feb 24, 2017 6:16am Feb 24, 2017 6:16am
Quoting eqshack
If we get bad CAD data then it should take AUD down also.. will have fun soon{quote}
Works like a charm ^.^
  • #100,847
  • Feb 24, 2017 6:56am Feb 24, 2017 6:56am
Quoting Ultiforex
I'm short at .7734..... Price just exceeded a previous high set 16/2. {image} {image} (Interestingly that red dotted line at .77134 can be traced back to market highs April & Nov 2016. Which could of course now become support if I'm wrong with my sell position!)

Closed my position .7667.... happy with that.

Have a nice weekend everyone
  • #100,848
  • Feb 24, 2017 7:18am Feb 24, 2017 7:18am
I posted this in my journal yesterday. It's two weeks of a forecast model I developed and applied on the AUDUSD pair. The forecast picks up the turns pretty well.
https://content.screencast.com/users...0Feb.%2023.gif

I did a couple of Nadex option ITM puts with strikes at .7720 and .7700 meaning price needs to be a tick below each on expiration to pay me out.
https://content.screencast.com/users...0Feb.%2023.gif
https://content.screencast.com/users...0Feb.%2023.gif

The result:
https://content.screencast.com/users...0Feb.%2024.gif
https://content.screencast.com/users...0Feb.%2024.gif

I closed both out early since they were sitting at 85% and 95% profit of payout. Nice way to end the week.
  • #100,849
  • Feb 24, 2017 7:53am Feb 24, 2017 7:53am
Aud/nzd rejected the divergence i guess we'r going into higher aud again waiting the 8h candle to confirm but looks like it
  • #100,850
  • Feb 24, 2017 5:49pm Feb 24, 2017 5:49pm
it is intersting how in the weekly chart for three weeks the aud has stayed exactly or almost unchanegd
  • #100,851
  • Feb 24, 2017 5:52pm Feb 24, 2017 5:52pm
To anyone interested I am trying to get few pips a day putting big orders with the goal of making 200 usd a day which here in South America I see enough to beat any IT medium salary .
  • #100,852
  • Feb 24, 2017 5:58pm Feb 24, 2017 5:58pm
For iron ore I use https://www.investing.com/commoditie...62-cfr-futures
  • #100,853
  • Feb 24, 2017 6:27pm Feb 24, 2017 6:27pm
Quote
I posted this in my journal yesterday. It's two weeks of a forecast model I developed and applied on the AUDUSD pair. The forecast picks up the turns pretty well.
https://content.screencast.com/users...0Feb.%2023.gif

I did a couple of Nadex option ITM puts with strikes at .7720 and .7700 meaning price needs to be a tick below each on expiration to pay me out.
pretty cool, how does nadex work. is it legit? i see they are owned by a forex broker.

so those options you sold were due next week? cutting pretty fine here, for 0.772 expiration. good trading, it could easily bounce off support next week...
  • #100,854
  • Feb 24, 2017 9:57pm Feb 24, 2017 9:57pm
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
My daily chart, the AUD is in an interesting position, the circles show the higher resistance while the square show the R at a slightly lower level. Regardless, the AUD has a lot to push through but then again the uptrend is still strong and intact, standing in front of it would be like standing in front of a train at full speed.

I do recall when the AUD hit parity, everyone on here was crying bear, then we watched it sail north. If Trump keeps mouthing off about BS then I think the uptrend may continue. Regardless, at the moment I would be cautious.
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Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,855
  • Edited 11:33pm Feb 24, 2017 11:03pm | Edited 11:33pm
Quoting damo
My daily chart, the AUD is in an interesting position, the circles show the higher resistance while the square show the R at a slightly lower level. Regardless, the AUD has a lot to push through but then again the uptrend is still strong and intact, standing in front of it would be like standing in front of a train at full speed. I do recall when the AUD hit parity, everyone on here was crying bear, then we watched it sail north. If Trump keeps mouthing off about BS then I think the uptrend may continue. Regardless, at the moment I would be cautious....
I respectfully disagree 100% that the Aussie is like a train at full speed heading north. Quite the contrary. The glory of forex is that two traders can have 100% opposite views and yet both can still make money.

Last 3 weeks since February 5th:

1) Iron ore up 10.4%
2) Gold up 3.0%
3) Silver up 4.8%
4) Oil up marginally

And yet the Aussie is at the exact same price it was 3 weeks ago. Correlation isn't always that strong, but this should still raise some eyebrows

First off, look at the last 3 weekly candles. Hanging man, followed by a quasi spinning top, followed by an inverted hammer. Doesn't exactly scream out full speed ahead for the bulls. In addition, volume is steadily declining. Many find broker volume useless, and to some extent I agree. However, I checked a dozen brokers and all show the same. Tells me that sentiment is changing and that interest at these levels is waning. In addition, we are at the top of the weekly range with an endless array of weekly rejection wicks.

Secondly, on the daily we can see momentum peaked on February 17th (the highest level since last March). However, you can see daily momentum waning and at today's close had just touched the median level.

Thirdly, there is a very good possibility for a US dollar rate hike in March. Likely priced in to some extent, but still not Aussie positive.

Throw in some daily divergence and a double top and I'm a bear hungry for bull meat. Actually I'm a vegan so I'll have to settle for a rice cake and some acorns, but still pipalicious.

Personally, I closed all my shorts today and will wait to see if there is another little run up to .7700 where I will build another short position. I expect price to be testing 75 by the end of March. Imho, all of the risk is to the downside

Anyways, that's my rant for the day. Enjoy the weekend and best of luck to everyone.
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #100,856
  • Feb 24, 2017 11:21pm Feb 24, 2017 11:21pm
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting Expo33
{quote} I respectfully disagree 100% that the Aussie is like a train at full speed heading north. Quite the contrary. The glory of forex is that two traders can have 100% opposite views and yet both can still make money. Last 3 weeks since February 5th: 1) Iron ore up 10.4% 2) Gold up 3.0% 3) Silver up 4.8% And yet the Aussie is at the exact same price it was 3 weeks ago. First off, look at the last 3 weekly candles. Hanging man, followed by a quasi spinning top, followed by an inverted hammer. Doesn't exactly scream out full speed ahead for the...
Hiya expo.... I agree with a lot of what you are saying. You have all of the fundamentals fairly correct, and eventually they always win, however they rarely relate to timing. Remember that the "Smartest people find trading the hardest", you can take that a lot of ways.

Re the train, I meant that the speed and strength of the uptrend is like the train. You can't argue that it has been one long and hard uptrend. Yes there are a lot of signals showing some opposition to the resistance it is sitting at. Or.... could it be accumulation ?? This often occurs prior to smashing through an important level. It is a hard one, and I have learnt through experience that it may be best to wait, breathe, have a sip of coffee before loading the boat on short positions.

Re the fundamentals. I live in the west where during the boom we were apparently one of the wealthiest states in the world. I am a very senior PM in engineering. But..... now most of my colleagues and myself are unemployed for the first time in our lives, mines have shut down, the state has lost its AAA credit rating and we have an election in a months time. If Labour wins that one then we will be recession bound for at least another 4 years.

ATM I do feel that short is the way to go, but I do want to be cautious.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,857
  • Feb 24, 2017 11:44pm Feb 24, 2017 11:44pm
Quoting damo
{quote} Hiya expo.... I agree with a lot of what you are saying. You have all of the fundamentals fairly correct, and eventually they always win, however they rarely relate to timing. Remember that the "Smartest people find trading the hardest", you can take that a lot of ways. Re the train, I meant that the speed and strength of the uptrend is like the train. You can't argue that it has been one long and hard uptrend. Yes there are a lot of signals showing some opposition to the resistance it is sitting at. Or.... could it be accumulation ?? This...
Agree with your points mate. It has been a steady and resilient move upwards and it certainly could be accumulation and a break higher. If that were the case, it would likely be pretty powerful.

Lots of uncertainty to be sure, but opportunities on both sides of the equation.

Green pips to you
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #100,858
  • Feb 25, 2017 8:33am Feb 25, 2017 8:33am
Quoting nooblaster
{quote} pretty cool, how does nadex work. is it legit? i see they are owned by a forex broker. so those options you sold were due next week? cutting pretty fine here, for 0.772 expiration. good trading, it could easily bounce off support next week...
Nadex is legit. NFTA regulated. I've been with them for years. They're an exchange and not a broker. Most of their binary options are daily and intraday but they do offer a weekly. They also offer pre-built spreads which are great for making Iron Condors with 2 options instead of 4.

During Sydney slower periods, I'll use a couple of binaries and set up Iron Butterflies.
  • #100,859
  • Feb 25, 2017 9:43pm Feb 25, 2017 9:43pm
Aud got smashed on Friday night and here are a few things that may smash the aud

1) USA raising interest rates
2) china woes to continue.
3) Australia downgrading from aaa credit rating.
4) prices for materials have peaked allready
  • #100,860
  • Feb 25, 2017 11:03pm Feb 25, 2017 11:03pm
you left out Australia lowering interest rates
but yes all of these may have the desired effect
I will get my head around this, but always can be wrong
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