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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #3,361
  • Feb 21, 2017 11:30am Feb 21, 2017 11:30am
F inside E.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,362
  • Feb 21, 2017 11:38am Feb 21, 2017 11:38am
hey lock, really enjoying the thread. Ive been wondering, do you employ any of the execution setups Dalton uses to trade with market generated information. such as single tick failures, gap failures etc etc.

I'm starting to grasp the overall view of the market profile and what references to pay attention to but I am finding it hard to actually objectively pull the trigger using the information.

PLEASE HELP LOL! your pretty much the only trader on this forum who has this level of understanding of market profile and not just posting about theory lol

good luck trading!
  • #3,363
  • Feb 21, 2017 12:10pm Feb 21, 2017 12:10pm
Quoting Piphunter00
hey lock, really enjoying the thread. Ive been wondering, do you employ any of the execution setups Dalton uses to trade with market generated information. such as single tick failures, gap failures etc etc. I'm starting to grasp the overall view of the market profile and what references to pay attention to but I am finding it hard to actually objectively pull the trigger using the information. PLEASE HELP LOL! your pretty much the only trader on this forum who has this level of understanding of market profile and not just posting about theory lol...
Hello Piphunter00

I agree with you that it would be great if we could get more but I believe that Lock is a great trader and a great teacher too.
I understand how Lock is under stress during open market and we at FF must take care of him as he was the Number 10 in a football team ... I say
we are playng the game with Pelè on our side . I am joking but I am not so far from the truth.
He makes the goals and a few assist for us ..... keep this as a treasure and continue to study and learn

I post this comment to thank Lock in a funny way
Anyway I hope it was a good trading day for all the subsbribers here.

Best regards
Animum debes mutare non caelum
  • #3,364
  • Feb 21, 2017 12:16pm Feb 21, 2017 12:16pm
Quoting giorgio1448
{quote} Hello Piphunter00 I agree with you that it would be great if we could get more but I believe that Lock is a great trader and a great teacher too. I understand how Lock is under stress during open market and we at FF must take care of him as he was the Number 10 in a football team ... I say we are playng the game with Pel on our side . I am joking but I am not so far from the truth. He makes the goals and a few assist for us ..... keep this as a treasure and continue to study and learn I post this comment to thank Lock in a funny way Anyway...
oh no doubt this guys on the ball constantly, I wasn't really asking for anything in depth about the said setups just if he made use of them for execution. I have been diving into some of the webinars by Dalton and picked up a PDF that outlined some of the key information in Signature Trades webinar that is mostly about execution in certain scenarios and was wondering if those are effective trading currencies with the market profile how lock is.

thank you again
  • #3,365
  • Feb 21, 2017 12:35pm Feb 21, 2017 12:35pm
heres what confused me about today till I actually read what you had posted about the day, value was overlapping to lower from Asian session - poc managed to migrate lower, so value was found in lower prices. to my observations day timeframe traders had got too long trying to buy 1.2418 and got flushed out right before Pre US opening. left us with the gap from us pit session yesterday which we traded up into short of 2 ticks and stalled, this seemed to me like a gap failure scenario caused by the short covering and I initially got short, showed some profit and then scratched the trade right at breakeven after a sharp move up again (which ended up being a good call LOL) was this just a situation where the short cover attracted new buying possibly because we were at bracket lows?? was the right trade here have been to get long after the B period poor high with no follow through on the retrace? and also taking the break of 2.418 after a few consecutive weak bounces off that level could have possibly been a good short term trade in the GB session?? I am trying to learn how to piece this information together so please shoot me down and send me back to the drawing board if I am talking complete crap LOL
  • #3,366
  • Feb 21, 2017 2:31pm Feb 21, 2017 2:31pm
Well, I see a lot of comments here all together so let me answer them in a single post.
First of all thank you for your appreciations. Anyway I am aware of the fact that almost everything I'm writing in this thread comes from the teachings of Mr. Dalton (and other masters) so I think it should be more correct to divert most of your congrats to him (/them).

Going into the specific of today market, let me describe what happened (in my opinion) and where the possible entries could have been today.

Dalton used to trade, specially in the last years, S&P500 e-mini contract. As any index based mainly upon US market activity, the "bigger" participants of this market are generally US ones. For this peculiar reason we could "divide" price action in two main time periods: overnight and pit session. Where this distinction derives from the strength of the participants involved in them "separately" and where most of the times weaker hands are those who rule overnight activity and stronger hands are those leading the pit session.

So, first of all, in such a market we have initially "only" 2 main variables that are, generally, easily identifiable. At the contrary in other markets as, for instance, forex cable, we have more complexity, more initial variables. This condition is given by the fact that "euro" session is not so weaker than "pit" session and not so stronger than the "asian" one.

Having said this let me add that the distinction between stronger and weaker hands could be (and generally is) also inside any single separate session: and this works exactly in the same way for both a market like S&P and a different one as forex cable.

Now, as said most of my anlaysis derive from what I learned by Mr. Dalton and he generally, because most of his clients were day timeframes traders, focused his teachings about how to trade as a "day trader" and not as longer timeframe trader or as an investor.
But trading as a "day trader" does not mean that you have to use only the references "day traders" generally use to trade nor that you could trade a market without knowing how other timeframes act and when they generally do it. Regarding day timeframes one should be aware of their methods and be prepared to use both their moments of strength but also their moments of weakness in relation to the variable strength and participation of major market actors.

Let me explain with an actual example regarding today. One of the most important teachings I received was about sequence of occurred events. What occurred before has a lot to give you, in terms of information, in order to understand what could possibly happen in the future. Yesterday was US bank holiday: so what occurred yesterday during pit session happened, with any probability, without the direct participation of stronger timeframes. This is given by the fact that stronger participants, like investors, because of the size of their positions, need liquidity. And, as anyone in the world know, with closed banks the liquidity is generally less than normal.

So, assuming the fact that what occurred yesterday during pit session has been done by weaker hands the first question to answer is: what did those weaker hands try do yesterday? The answer is: they tried to go lower. After this first data point, let's observe what followed their action: after yes pit unchanged at 24595 (yes pit close level), overnight activity (that as said we consider generally weaker than normal pit action) continued lower and spent almost the entire activity below yes pit unchanged price, meaning below 24595. Also both Asia session and GB session close downside, meaning that their ucnhanged price was below their respective opening levels.
And this is the second data point we got from market observation.

But, now, as Dalton used to say, we do not have only 2 concurrent data points, one added to the other, we have an exponential single data point. We know in fact that almost any activity from yesterday pit session untill today pit open has been conducted by weaker hands and all in the same attempted direction.

So, in such a condition we could start to build a first scenario: the almost surely stronger participants of today pit session may have noticed the same exponential data point and consequently they might know that in case of their buying action no reaction or at least a very soft one could be possible by those who were selling all night long.

Now, pit session today opened with a gap downside: a gap is a form of excess that, in some circustances, could underline the presence of an occurred or occurring "change" in the market. For this reason a gap could also present an opportunity for those who could consider this change as stronger enough to be followed. So, a second scenario, should have been: at pit open, pit participants could decide to pile on the occurred change and continue lower.

A third scenario could have been: because of the drastic change from yesterday pit unchanged and the consequent indecision about how to consider this change, well, maybe the better thing is to wait here and observe the development of market, leaving the field free for weaker timeframes to act: in a word, let the market remain in balance.

And here it comes the importance of market open activity: today pit session opened, price tested below Thursday pit unchanged, found nothing, wasn't able even to get overnight low (GB poor low at 2401) nor it was able to retest Thursday pit session low already tagged by preUS low at 2405. Then it started to cover weaker inventories left by overnight activity. The move upside was fast and sharp: too fast and too sharp to be made by new serious money buying but stronger enough to retrace the weaker hands who leaded price so short. As a confirmation of this covering I noted that it started 3 pips above the last 3 pit sessions bracket (2405 Thursday low).
So at that moment in time I was pretty sure we were in the first scenario: stronger pit session participants (not the stronger participants we could find in a pit session, but at least participants stronger enough, as said, to retrace the weaker overnight action) were leading a covering of overnight activity.

And here is an example of how you could take advantage of market generated information: even if the reference used to start such a covering could be considered weak as generally used by weaker pit participants, knowing the fact that all the overnight action downside had been done by even weaker market actors, that particular reference (Thursday pit low 2405) was a pefect spot to place a long position: the risk was minimum, the reference was very exact and the reason to go higher were consistent and clear.

Plus it also was an asimmetric opportunity: because the correction of overnight inventories could last something like 50 pips or more (to reach yesterday pit unch at 24595) while the risk was not more than a dozen of pips, because the pit half back of the entire move from 06.12 was at 23975 and it was very unlikely to get through such a major short term reference leaving upside such a mess of weaknesses made during overnight and yesterday pit session without any meaningfull correction of them... or even if so, stronger sellers could have been only below that reference and not above it. So in case of stop out of the buy, you could easily re enter in a good short below 23975 with a little loss in the first attempted position.

Did I place a long there? No I didn't. A period was to elongated, I didn't like the new GB poor low at 2401 nor I liked the preUS tag of Thursday pit low at 2405. So I waited untill the B inside period. Then, when I saw the break above it, I joined the covering and I placed my longs, just above A period high: even in this case it was a good location and an asimmetric opportunity: the target remained infact yes pit unch (and also the composite poc 2464 as written in the morning report) while the risk was only some pips, because the stops could be placed just inside B balance that was very small.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,367
  • Feb 21, 2017 2:52pm Feb 21, 2017 2:52pm
Now, I'm not saying it is easy: I'm saying it is doable.

An other more recent example:

After the new inside period D I wrote in post 3359 that we could have 3 possible scenarios, again: remain in balance, continue higher or liquidate. They come from the possible accepation abov yes high (that is currently extremely weak) andalso from the current price location around the major composite poc 2464. Then I add this:

Quoting Lock
A test of yes unch 24595 could give us the answer to current issue.
What happened? A new inside period (F inside E), a new attempted break, a failed test below yes unch 24595 (no acceptation below it) and consequently price at this moment in time could only remain in balance or make a new test above 2477. The risk was minimum, because the stops could be only some pips below yes unch and the opportunity was still asimmetric (even if potentially smaller, considering time and composite poc)
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,368
  • Feb 21, 2017 2:58pm Feb 21, 2017 2:58pm
Wow is all I can say. That one post made sense of so much for me thank you lock. I think the drawback I am having learning their profile is the fact forex works in such a different way and is a different beast lol but after what you've jus said I realise I didn't fully understand the inventory and I still have one more question regarding it. I dug up a post from you where you mentioned what you class as Inventory depending on your session. So for GB open am I taking into consideration sydney+Tokyo in relation to GB Unch or US Pit Unch is my last point of confusion for the minute. And obviously Sydney+tokyo+GB I'm relation to us pit Unch for us session. Tomorrow I will start my analysis with sequence of occurred events and will study inventory before plotting my references and thinking about a trade setup. Thank you so much
  • #3,369
  • Feb 22, 2017 1:41am Feb 22, 2017 1:41am
so we found acceptation above Monday daily range, would it be a fair statement to say that for all this buying to be reversed we would need to come back into the single prints of C period PIT US and fill them for continuation back down the bottom of the bracket and for it to be continued we would need it to hold above it? maybe a bounce at the US POC or jus below it at the pull back low above the singles. would this also be classed as a gap between GB sessions considering where we are likely o open, I have heard dalton say many times that if a gap is filled which would also mean for us that the US singles get filled that we want to see value build to unchanged? cant wait to hear your views on todays action thanks a lot lock!
  • #3,370
  • Feb 22, 2017 1:55am Feb 22, 2017 1:55am
17/02/22 Wednesday 08:55 +1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

We are still in monthly and weekly balance while we are watching an attempted breakout above the last 2 days balance. Actual price location is above yesterday GB range high (24375), meaning that we could have a new gap upside if upcoming GB will open around here.
Yesterday GB left a poor low downside at 2401 (that is also weak as it is a round number tag), so we do not have a good excess downside (no buying tale for GB): anyway a gap upside, as it is a form of excess, could substitute the lack of excess below.

Major composite poc is still at 2464 and in an insecure market, participated mostly by weak timeframes, it could attract price as it is the fairest place at which business has been conducted previously.

Price also broke above a very weak trend line started daily from 09.02 high holding price for 9 days. If price will be acceptated below it we could then go downside to test the other weak trend line started 19.01 and holding for 23 days. Remember that we could define a trend line as weak any time we see it tagged exactly for a substantial amount of time: as any exact reference it is mainly used by weak market participants while stronger timeframes do not use such levels even if they could be aware of them.

Strongest short term references are downside 24367, 23975 (Pit), 2396 (GB), 23805 (all sessions) and 2346 (specially GB). Above we have 25122, 2548 (top of current daily bracket).

Note that the weekly breakeven are 23827 (below) and 25478 (above) for all session. But they vary depending upon different sessions: 2388-25393 (GB) and 23895-2532 (US pit). Remember that weekly balance made by the inside week 12.02 is defined by its high and low that are surely short term references but could also be mid term ones: so watch out there if reached because we could have a substantial retracement or a substantiall acceleration above or below them (above high and below low)
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  • #3,371
  • Feb 22, 2017 2:57am Feb 22, 2017 2:57am
Quoting Lock
17/02/22 Wednesday 08:55 +1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT ..... Major composite poc is still at 2464 and in an insecure market, participated mostly by weak timeframes, it could attract price as it is the fairest place at which business has been conducted previously. ....
And here we are there. Note anyhow the new GB poor high 2502 left above, the Tokyo poor high 25075 just above the new GB PH and the GB gap upside still in place: very uncertain market, watch out.
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  • #3,372
  • Feb 22, 2017 2:59am Feb 22, 2017 2:59am
2457 is the yesterday pull back low made by pit session: even though it is a pit reference, GB participants could be aware of its importance.
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  • #3,373
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:01am Feb 22, 2017 3:01am
Note that this liquidation occurred because nor A nor B have been able to settle above 2498, Friday GB minor bracket high.
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  • #3,374
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:02am Feb 22, 2017 3:02am
And also remember that a liquidation will tend to remove from market weak seller activity. Now, in order to continue downside we need new money selling. If we will not find them a retracement is highly probable in order to start a new serch for new money sellers above current poor high.
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  • #3,375
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:05am Feb 22, 2017 3:05am
If the liquidation instead will continue filling the new gap upside we could aim to remove the yesterday GB poor low at 2401.
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  • #3,376
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:08am Feb 22, 2017 3:08am
Finally 24633 is yesterday GB close price: for any meningfull continuation downside we need acceptation below it. If not all the way back upside.
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  • #3,377
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:18am Feb 22, 2017 3:18am
Quoting Piphunter00
so we found acceptation above Monday daily range, would it be a fair statement to say that for all this buying to be reversed we would need to come back into the single prints of C period PIT US and fill them for continuation back down the bottom of the bracket and for it to be continued we would need it to hold above it? maybe a bounce at the US POC or jus below it at the pull back low above the singles. would this also be classed as a gap between GB sessions considering where we are likely o open, I have heard dalton say many times that if a gap...
It is important to avoid an analysis involving different participants and different references used by those different traders. For upcoming pit session the most impostant level is the AFBL (afternoon pull back low) at 24572: an open above or below that level will determine the initial orientation of the new pit session. Then we will have to see if this level will hold, above or below in order to let us evaluate a possible continuation upside or downside.

GB session has, generally, different level to consider: yesterday close is one of them and by coincidence it is at 24633 just above pit AFBL. Then we have the new gap upside and also the yesterday tiny spike downside base coinciding with GB unch at 2410. So this morning at open time we got 2 converging data points: price open above that base (initial rejection of yesterday GB attempt downside) and above yesterday GB high, meaning an excess upside. So my initial expectation were to continue higher.

Now, unless we will start to build below yes close 24633, eventually filling the new gap upside, GB has still good odds to continue higher. If instead we will see an acceptation below 24633 and also inside yes range (meaning gap filled and acceptation below 24375) then we could start to think at yesterday poor low 2401. And eventually a new test of the important 2396 level (half back of the entire move downside from 06.12, for GB)
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  • #3,378
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:24am Feb 22, 2017 3:24am
Note that because of the composite poc and of the failure above 24982 (GB minor bracket high) I sold above Monday GB high 2482. I'm ready to close and reverse at any moment in time or to add more if I'll see acceptation below yes GB close 2463.
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  • #3,379
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:27am Feb 22, 2017 3:27am
Note USDX testing the half back 101.53 of the last major bracket: it could fail or be accepted above it. In any case it could heavily influence cable because it is a short/mid term level for USDX
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  • #3,380
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:29am Feb 22, 2017 3:29am
Note C inside B
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