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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #3,381
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:32am Feb 22, 2017 3:32am
Quoting Lock
{quote} It is important to avoid an analysis involving different participants and different references used by those different traders. For upcoming pit session the most impostant level is the AFBL (afternoon pull back low) at 24572: an open above or below that level will determine the initial orientation of the new pit session. Then we will have to see if this level will hold, above or below in order to let us evaluate a possible continuation upside or downside. GB session has, generally, different level to consider: yesterday close is one of them...
Okay this seems like an important point, so when dealing with the GB session im to place attention on the overnight references (in this case Tokyo sydney) and previous GB references. Your points of reference in this particular case being GB gap, GB close, GB unch which is around poor lows and a previous GB session high. I will commit this to memory, thank you so much for your replies you have no idea how much light your shedding on this for me! Also what time exactly is the London close. I live in London so I think that's gmt+0. Thank you for the information about your trade as well, is that a situation you often trade off? When the market opens near a previous session high or low and fails to settle within a few periods.? This is the kind of actionable information I feel I am still missing
  • #3,382
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:39am Feb 22, 2017 3:39am
24437 is one of our major references for today.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,383
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:41am Feb 22, 2017 3:41am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} Okay this seems like an important point, so when dealing with the GB session im to place attention on the overnight references (in this case Tokyo sydney) and previous GB references. Your points of reference in this particular case being GB gap, GB close, GB unch which is around poor lows and a previous GB session high. I will commit this to memory, thank you so much for your replies you have no idea how much light your shedding on this for me! Also what time exactly is the London close. I live in London so I think that's gmt+0. Thank you...

You're welcome. London close is only a forex convention: consider FF GB close session time. For +1GMT is 18:00

Let me add that references could vary from time to time because the game could be different depending upon price location. Normal references for day timeframes are high and low of overnight (asia and/or Sydney), yesterday GB high and low, yesterday open, unch and close, yesterday half back, overnight half back, etc.. But for bigger timeframs is totally an other game: we could have go no go levels at daily brackets highs and lows, weekly highs and lows, major or minor brackets half back, etc. Remember that bigger timeframes have no idea about day timeframes references unless they will coincidewith their own refs. Nor they could care less about them. Also remember that major timeframes, like investors do not place their positions in a single spot because of the size. Also they tend to not be heroes in any market. If they split their position they obtain a sort of mid price that is more "secure" than any other exact ref.
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  • #3,384
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:46am Feb 22, 2017 3:46am
Quoting Lock
24437 is one of our major references for today.
im so confused with this outcome... looking down and was hoping for 2530.
  • #3,385
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:56am Feb 22, 2017 3:56am
Quoting Lock
{quote} You're welcome. London close is only a forex convention: consider FF GB close session time. For +1GMT is 18:00 Let me add that references could vary from time to time because the game could be different depending upon price location. Normal references for day timeframes are high and low of overnight (asia and/or Sydney), yesterday GB high and low, yesterday open, unch and close, yesterday half back, overnight half back, etc.. But for bigger timeframs is totally an other game: we could have go no go levels at daily brackets highs and lows,...
Thanks again, another powerful post. the London close actually makes sense if for gmt+1 is 18:00 for London that makes it 5pm which give or take Is when anyone working in a bank will be packing up to go home
  • #3,386
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:58am Feb 22, 2017 3:58am
Quoting titi14
{quote} im so confused with this outcome... looking down and was hoping for 2530.

You must prepare at least 3 different scenarios before any market open: you have not to be surprised by any possible market reaction. Nor you can build your decisions during running action: it is literally impossible. As said I was expecting continuation upside(one of my scenarios) but then I saw no continuation upside: so what? I have an other one telling me that we could fill the gap and eventually obtain acceptation inside yes range. So I went down. Now I have other 3 new scenarios, because market condition changed in the meanwhile.

Now the game could be:

  1. gap filled, no acceptation inside yes range, then all the way back upside to take out 2502 and 25075.
  2. gap filled, acceptation below yes range high: continuation downside to 2401 and eventually to 2396
  3. gap filled, now let's remain here filling it with volume for some time remaining in balance considering the attraction power of 2464 major composite poc.


Remember that market is a continuous 2 ways auction process and market profile is only a dynamic database usable to organize market provided information.

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,387
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:07am Feb 22, 2017 4:07am
Quoting Lock
{quote} You must prepare at least 3 different scenarios before any market open: you have not to be surprised by any possible market reaction. Nor you can build your decisions during running action: it is literally impossible. As said I was expecting continuation upside(one of my scenarios) but then I saw no continuation upside: so what? I have an other one telling me that we could fill the gap and eventually obtain acceptation inside yes range. So I went down. Now I have other 3 new scenarios, because market condition changed in the meanwhile. Now...
its accepted below the poc 2464. so down right?
  • #3,388
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:08am Feb 22, 2017 4:08am
E period dipped below D period low by one tick, is this a first sign that the markets not so afraid of this gap and probably going to execute either a balanced scenario or a continuation downward or do we need more periods to print? if we cant build value at unch? could this mean a late day rally maybe in the US like one of the scenarios in Daltons gap rules? or once the US is underway is the focus switched to US references from previous days?
  • #3,389
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:11am Feb 22, 2017 4:11am
Quoting titi14
{quote} its accepted below the poc 2464. so down right?
The reference above is 24633 (yes GB close): currently we have one period closed below it (D period).

For acceptation we need, at least, 2 periods closed below a particular day time frame reference. Current F period will tell us if acceptation or not. But note that now we have a new poor low (carry this info forward) and at the same time we do not have any period closed below yes GB range high 24375. It will be licit to add some after acceptation below 24633 but then you will have to monitor for acceptation inside yes GB range: if not, the acceptation below 24633 will not be enough for continuation downside.

As you see you have a lot of different data points to evaluate and monitor and you have to find a ruling reason among them in order to take a decision. It is not easy and it is not a thing that could be obtained in a matter of days or weeks. It's a very long path.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,390
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:19am Feb 22, 2017 4:19am
Quoting Piphunter00
E period dipped below D period low by one tick, is this a first sign that the markets not so afraid of this gap and probably going to execute either a balanced scenario or a continuation downward or do we need more periods to print? if we cant build value at unch? could this mean a late day rally maybe in the US like one of the scenarios in Daltons gap rules? or once the US is underway is the focus switched to US references from previous days?
Again: take the market a piece at a time. Do not mix together too many information or you will not be able to take a decision. Current game is a GB one ruled by GB participants. You will consider pit participants late in the day. For now we could refer to the scenarios I posted previously: nothing changed from it untill now.

Current poor low could be considered as a lack of sellers or as an auction not yet finished. It is very normal to see a reaction after the filling of a new gap. Then if we will see no continuation above yes GB close and acceptation below it, we will consider this reaction as a very weak day time frame automatic reaction. If insted we will have continuation above yes GB close then we will consider that reaction as something more serious. Note that for now Gb value is building above yes GB value. So unless a strong continuation downside this could be the outcome of current GB session.

Also note that considering the weaknesses left above this action is clearly a liquidation. For now.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,391
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:26am Feb 22, 2017 4:26am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Again: take the market a piece at a time. Do not mix together too many information or you will not be able to take a decision. Current game is a GB one ruled by GB participants. You will consider pit participants late in the day. For now we could refer to the scenarios I posted previously: nothing changed from it untill now.
yes sir! doesn't look like well get the E period below GB high, F period probably jammed between the lower reference and GB close just above? could this constitute the balancing situation and we just oscillate in this area?
  • #3,392
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:28am Feb 22, 2017 4:28am
I will answer next possible questions later.
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  • #3,393
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:30am Feb 22, 2017 4:30am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} yes sir! doesn't look like well get the E period below GB high, F period probably jammed between the lower reference and GB close just above? could this constitute the balancing situation and we just oscillate in this area?

For now we have a one timeframing action downside where only D period high took out the previous period high. (and it happened during news) So the day timeframe is currently downside. Anyhow, adjustment of inventories could accur at any time.
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  • #3,394
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:31am Feb 22, 2017 4:31am
Now we got acceptation below yes GB close. Because we have 2 period closed below it.
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  • #3,395
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:33am Feb 22, 2017 4:33am
Anyhow note E high 1 single pip below early morning low (B period low 2458): it is a very exact reference generally used by daytimeframes: carry this info forward. A short is licit but be aware of who is ruling this market in order to moderate your expectations.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,396
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:35am Feb 22, 2017 4:35am
Quoting Lock
Anyhow note E high 1 single pip below early morning low (B period low 2458): it is a very exact reference generally used by daytimeframes: carry this info forward. A short is licit but be aware of who is ruling this market in order to moderate your expectations.
could you also expain 'licit' when you get round to responding to some of the replies lol thanks
  • #3,397
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:37am Feb 22, 2017 4:37am
E inside D: watch out.
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  • #3,398
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:38am Feb 22, 2017 4:38am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} could you also expain 'licit' when you get round to responding to some of the replies lol thanks

It's licit if you know who is leading this market and the risk involved in taking a position along side weak market participants. So you have to be fast to enter and fast to esc in this case: if you are used to marry a position this one was not for you.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,399
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:39am Feb 22, 2017 4:39am
Quoting Lock
Anyhow note E high 1 single pip below early morning low (B period low 2458): it is a very exact reference generally used by daytimeframes: carry this info forward. A short is licit but be aware of who is ruling this market in order to moderate your expectations.

And in fact: taken out.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,400
  • Feb 22, 2017 4:42am Feb 22, 2017 4:42am
Quoting Lock
{quote} And in fact: taken out.
meaning? shorts ended for now?
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