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Attachments: French Presidential Election 2017
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French Presidential Election 2017

  • #21
  • Feb 6, 2017 9:18am Feb 6, 2017 9:18am
Quoting AiWoZhongHua
{quote} Which candidate would not be detrimental for the whole economy?
Fillon (but there is a scandal right now, so he will never be president. Maybe another republican candidate, we will see next days) and Macron. For now Macron and Le pen are qualified for 2 rounds, and if so, Macron wins easily. Anyway, it is too early to make prediction. Nowadays, french politics and survey change so quickly.
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #22
  • Feb 6, 2017 11:05am Feb 6, 2017 11:05am
Quoting limprobable
{quote} Fillon (but there is a scandal right now, so he will never be president. Maybe another republican candidate, we will see next days) and Macron. For now Macron and Le pen are qualified for 2 rounds, and if so, Macron wins easily. Anyway, it is too early to make prediction. Nowadays, french politics and survey change so quickly.
Fillon was prime minister when France's debt grew from 1300 M€ to 1900M€. He obvisouly can't control the countrie's resources.

The subprime crisis is not the reason, you can find many occurences where Sarkozy said that fortunately, France's bank have a very low exposure (and it was true). They just spent public money hoping for a keynesian boost. We're still waiting for it.

I'm okay with Macron, he comes from the private sector and the fact that he is a former banker does not bothers me. Although his views are far from mine, he'd have my vote.

The rest is pink, red, green, brown socialism
  • #23
  • Feb 6, 2017 11:10am Feb 6, 2017 11:10am
Well, it seems that Fillon stays candidate.

One apology, and he thinks people will forget about that...

http://www.lemonde.fr/affaire-penelo...0_5070021.html
  • #24
  • Feb 7, 2017 4:03am Feb 7, 2017 4:03am
as i understand,a second round of voting takes place only if no candidate has a majority.

therefore if Le Pen is a majority in the first round she will be President and the euro will be finished

this may seem unlikely,

has anybody heard of a Black Swan ?
  • #25
  • Feb 7, 2017 4:33am Feb 7, 2017 4:33am
Quoting pikeliver
as i understand,a second round of voting takes place only if no candidate has a majority. therefore if Le Pen is a majority in the first round she will be President and the euro will be finished this may seem unlikely, has anybody heard of a Black Swan ?
It never happened in the Vth republic. And this time in particular it won't happen because there are 4 candidates who have high chances to go to 2nd round. Usually we know what would be the 2nd round.

Le Pen is a strong personnality, and if you don't love her, you most likely hate her.

According to me, the only action that may lead her to get a majority would be a commitment to make a referendum to stay/leave the EU, or just the eurozone (now there is no referendum, no power to the people, but it is part of her campain promises). In that case, I believe people's hate for the EU is stronger than for Lepen....
  • #26
  • Feb 8, 2017 10:59am Feb 8, 2017 10:59am
http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2017/01...rine-le-pen-a/

Politic fiction..
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #27
  • Feb 9, 2017 4:14am Feb 9, 2017 4:14am
Le Pen may win.
But, she will need to choose a PM from a majority party, so powers will be limited. There will be no exit from the EU. The Euro won't be finished.
  • #28
  • Feb 12, 2017 9:30am Feb 12, 2017 9:30am
week 9 sky bet

macron 5/4
le pen 2/1
fillon 11/2
juppe 12/1
hamon 14/1

bar the rest
  • #29
  • Feb 14, 2017 4:24am Feb 14, 2017 4:24am
The French – German bond spreads have widened again as the elections approach.
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  • #30
  • Feb 16, 2017 9:58pm Feb 16, 2017 9:58pm
Quoting KoiFish
Le Pen may win. But, she will need to choose a PM from a majority party, so powers will be limited. There will be no exit from the EU. The Euro won't be finished.
Really?, there's already talk from Le Pen about re-denomination of the French Franc....
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #31
  • Feb 17, 2017 11:20am Feb 17, 2017 11:20am
macron 5/4

le pen 15/8

fillon 9/2

bar
  • #32
  • Feb 19, 2017 2:24am Feb 19, 2017 2:24am
Quoting headfake
{quote} Really?, there's already talk from Le Pen about re-denomination of the French Franc....
In my observations, it is not entirely uncommon, in politics, for politicians to make bold statements for the sole purpose of gaining potential votes. Marine Le Penn is a politician, make no mistake. Her expertise is public relations and arousing French patriotism is her only objective. The words that spill for her lips have one purpose only and that is to get her elected.

Now once she is elected, it is not entirely uncommon, in politics, for politicians to make excuses why they have not been able to follow through on the bold statements they made.
  • #33
  • Feb 19, 2017 3:01am Feb 19, 2017 3:01am
If frexit happen then EU is gone..if not why france asked USA for opinion about EU?
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=641429

USA did not assembled EU , has nothing with possible disassembling EU...Talk about disassembling as possibility started way before trump, let's say 2010 with greece...
  • #34
  • Feb 19, 2017 4:56am Feb 19, 2017 4:56am
listen. This perception of democracy is bullshit. The election has been decided and Le Penn won. It's been decided already by the ruling elite. Get over it.
Now, if you think Le Penn wins you will make bank shorting the Euro & CAC 40.
Wrong.
When Le Penn win, all them retail suckers who think they know fundamentals will get the short squeezed out of them.
  • #35
  • Feb 20, 2017 12:45am Feb 20, 2017 12:45am
Quoting BubaYaga
listen. This perception of democracy is bullshit. The election has been decided and Le Penn won. It's been decided already by the ruling elite. Get over it. Now, if you think Le Penn wins you will make bank shorting the Euro & CAC 40. Wrong. When Le Penn win, all them retail suckers who think they know fundamentals will get the short squeezed out of them.
And I thought I was the only person to think there was more to Brexit... and now the immigrant rioting in France near the election which is going to fuel the right and encourage France to be more nationalistic in voting.
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #36
  • Feb 20, 2017 11:10pm Feb 20, 2017 11:10pm
Second round elections odds.
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  • #37
  • Feb 20, 2017 11:11pm Feb 20, 2017 11:11pm
The number of “Le Pen” stories on Bloomberg so far this year.
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  • #38
  • Feb 20, 2017 11:11pm Feb 20, 2017 11:11pm
Credit Suisse points out that unlike the situation with Brexit and Trump, Le Pen’s odds are not within the margin of error.
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  • #39
  • Feb 21, 2017 7:18am Feb 21, 2017 7:18am
Macron 13/8

Le Pen 15/8

Fillon 5/2

bar
  • #40
  • Edited 8:49am Feb 21, 2017 8:23am | Edited 8:49am
Let me tell the story:

LR (les Republicains):

First Jupe was the favorite. Jupe out and Fillon wins. Then Fillon was the favorite, Scandal, Fillon out (for now).

PS: (Parti socialiste):

First Valls was favorite. Valls out and Hamon wins. Hamon and the communist dont find a way to have one list. No chance to be at second tour (for now). PS out fo now.

Then you have Macron and Le Pen, the 2 favorites now. Allready 4 favorites are out, Who is the next one ?

Media sell paper when they talk about Le pen

You'de better not bet now, it's suicide.
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
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