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Divergence Pip Range Trading

  • #301
  • Feb 10, 2017 4:26am Feb 10, 2017 4:26am
Last day of the week and can hopefully cap off a good one.

Played 9 holes of twilight golf which was good fun. Currently in a trade but going nowhere fast, markets have fallen asleep for the time being.
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  • #302
  • Feb 10, 2017 5:30am Feb 10, 2017 5:30am
A nice result on GBPAUD on a trade I took post UK news. Despite positive data, GBP seemed reluctant to go higher and when price near enough reached post news highs, it seemed a good spot to get short. In the past I've tried to battle technicals and go with what seems a logical move. It was extremely good data for the UK but price for whatever reason didn't want to follow. Very much a case of trade what you see, not what you think....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud-m3-international-capital-markets (34).png Size: 27 KB
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  • #303
  • Feb 10, 2017 6:34am Feb 10, 2017 6:34am
The GBP is providing most of the moves today with the Euro being very laboured and stuck in a very tight range.

GBPAUD weakened right off below the 1.6300 handle and reached key support around the 1.6280 mark and I felt it was worth the risk to see if it would re-test the 1.6300 handle. A good end to the week and a very solid one.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud-m3-international-capital-markets (35).png Size: 28 KB


Have a great weekend. Temperatures set to hit over 40C over the next couple of days so you'll catch me at the pool!
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  • #304
  • Feb 13, 2017 1:57am Feb 13, 2017 1:57am
I can't believe how quick these weeks are going at the moment, another week is upon us.

Kicking off with a GBPAUD trade as prices started to move into the European open and leading into the UK open. It'll be interesting to see if GBPAUD and EURAUD maintain their heavy tone this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud-m3-international-capital-markets (36).png Size: 29 KB
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  • #305
  • Feb 13, 2017 2:59am Feb 13, 2017 2:59am
A reasonably quick trade here on GBPUSD. General USD weakness across the board and the pair made fresh daily highs into the start of the UK session but met with an area of confluence and a nice setup of the AO making lower highs and price going higher. I didn't want to hold it for too long as I don't want a reversal to occur and the weak USD to continue. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-m3-international-capital-markets (25).png Size: 31 KB
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  • #306
  • Feb 13, 2017 3:36am Feb 13, 2017 3:36am
A pleasing trade here on EURAUD as it took commitment to enter the trade when price was ready to make new daily highs. This is when you have to back yourself and your strategy and believe. Price could have gone higher but based on the information at hand, I felt it was a positive trade to take and a quick +15 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud-m3-international-capital-markets (22).png Size: 27 KB
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  • #307
  • Feb 13, 2017 6:51am Feb 13, 2017 6:51am
Calling it a night with no prospect of further trades. Looks to be a busy week with plenty of data being released that has the potential to create some solid movement.
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  • #308
  • Feb 14, 2017 2:16am Feb 14, 2017 2:16am
A small trade here on GBPUSD right before UK open. Price had been hovering around 1.2545 for a while and price lacked momentum and felt there was a good chance it could head lower prior to UK news. Only took +15 but with a smaller stop it was beneficial.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-m3-international-capital-markets (26).png Size: 30 KB


Most likely on the sidelines until post UK news, hoping for some activity.
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  • #309
  • Feb 14, 2017 3:42am Feb 14, 2017 3:42am
Again, not a massive trade in terms of pips (+12) but sometimes you have to adjust to what the market is doing and for the last couple of weeks, EURUSD has been in a very tight range. Today is only pushing 40 pips so far and yesterday was 66. The 20 day average is sitting around the 70 pips mark.

Price was pushing close to the 1 hour EMA and also lined up with the cam level as shown on the 1 hour chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h1-international-capital-markets (1).png Size: 49 KB


And then on the pip range chart, price made session highs early in London trade and the AO didn't follow:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-m3-international-capital-markets (16).png Size: 31 KB
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  • #310
  • Feb 14, 2017 5:32am Feb 14, 2017 5:32am
Missed this trade as I was doing other things but always good to have a look at successful (and unsuccesful) setups.

Price had dropped considerably on the back of missed CPI data and hit a key level:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-h1-international-capital-markets (2).png Size: 50 KB


And here's the pip range chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-m3-international-capital-markets (27).png Size: 28 KB
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  • #311
  • Feb 15, 2017 1:55am Feb 15, 2017 1:55am
Hump day is here! (Seems like yesterday I said that last week.)

A very, very quiet Asian session and we're heading into the UK session with all pairs that I watch doing absolutely nothing. Hopefully the news will liven things up.
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  • #312
  • Feb 15, 2017 3:01am Feb 15, 2017 3:01am
Quoting FlipFlopGC
Hump day is here! (Seems like yesterday I said that last week.) A very, very quiet Asian session and we're heading into the UK session with all pairs that I watch doing absolutely nothing. Hopefully the news will liven things up.
FlipFlop, thank you for this thread. I am normally a S&D Trader but interrested in your system. Especially because it seems to have worked for you 7 years now.

Could you please explain why the deal above is a good one. I havent managed yet to be successful here. Concentrated on divergences only. Thats my problem probably...?!?!
  • #313
  • Feb 15, 2017 3:13am Feb 15, 2017 3:13am
Quoting fractalus
{quote} FlipFlop, thank you for this thread. I am normally a S&D Trader but interrested in your system. Especially because it seems to have worked for you 7 years now. Could you please explain why the deal above is a good one. I havent managed yet to be successful here. Concentrated on divergences only. Thats my problem probably...?!?!
Hi Fractalus, which trade are you referring to? All of the trades I've posted are divergence only setups, remember.
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  • #314
  • Feb 15, 2017 3:31am Feb 15, 2017 3:31am
Quoting FlipFlopGC
Missed this trade as I was doing other things but always good to have a look at successful (and unsuccesful) setups. Price had dropped considerably on the back of missed CPI data and hit a key level: gbpusd-h1-international-capital-markets (2).png;2186315 And here's the pip range chart: gbpusd-m3-international-capital-markets (27).png;2186317 {image} {image}
Hi FlipFlop, thanks for your quick response. I am interrested for example what the metrics are why this setup was an interresting one.

-Because of the divergence?
-Because of the levels? What levels?
-Because of ichimoku indicator metrics?
.....

Thx
Andreas
  • #315
  • Feb 15, 2017 3:39am Feb 15, 2017 3:39am
Quoting fractalus
{quote} Hi FlipFlop, thanks for your quick response. I am interrested for example what the metrics are why this setup was an interresting one. -Because of the divergence? -Because of the levels? What levels? -Because of ichimoku indicator metrics? ..... Thx Andreas
Hi Fractalus, that was a great setup due to where price was approaching. You can see on the 1 hour chart that that level had seen price react several times and I am a firm believer that patterns repeat. Divergence confirmed there was a possibility that price could retrace higher and it duly did. Hope that helps.
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  • #316
  • Feb 15, 2017 4:28am Feb 15, 2017 4:28am
First trade of the night post UK news. The data was mixed with the Earnings index missing but the Claimant count change beating expectations. I felt price was massively overdone and once it reached 1.6170 it became too good a setup to not take. There was a strong level at 1.6155 on the 4hour chart which gave me the support I was looking for. Once price came back to 1.6185 for the 2nd attempt I moved my stop to -1 to keep my options open incase price fell away again.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud-m3-international-capital-markets (37).png Size: 28 KB
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  • #317
  • Feb 15, 2017 7:41am Feb 15, 2017 7:41am
Small 5 pip loss on GBPUSD from slippage due to the news. Had my stop at breakeven prior but the quick move down cost me. Will post the chart in the morning.
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  • #318
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:08pm Feb 15, 2017 10:08pm
Quoting FlipFlopGC
Small 5 pip loss on GBPUSD from slippage due to the news. Had my stop at breakeven prior but the quick move down cost me. Will post the chart in the morning.
Here's the chart for the above. I took the trade around 15 minutes prior to the news on the basis I'd exit for a small loss pre news or if it allowed it, move the stop to breakeven prior to the release. I got into the position to get to breakeven and with the strong US Data, it caused some minor slippage of 5 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-m3-international-capital-markets (28).png Size: 33 KB


Hopefully a good session coming up in a few hours.
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  • #319
  • Feb 16, 2017 5:12am Feb 16, 2017 5:12am
Been in a position for 2 hours and no result yet, testing trade.
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  • #320
  • Feb 16, 2017 6:06am Feb 16, 2017 6:06am
Quoting FlipFlopGC
Been in a position for 2 hours and no result yet, testing trade.
3 hours later, finally a result.

I initially entered the position due to price being somewhat in a channel whilst the AO went lower. Turns out I entered around 5 minutes before GBPUSD spiked higher on the back of no apparent news. However, there was general broad weakness in the US Dollar as evidenced in USDJPY and EURUSD. Price popped to the cam level on the time based chart and also an area of confluence of former support now turned resistance. I felt it was worth adding to the trade and the setup still looked strong. Price had a good run down before turning higher again but thankfully ran out of steam before finally breaking the mini level at 1.2495 area. A good result in the end.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-m3-international-capital-markets (29).png Size: 32 KB


There was a beauty of a trade on GBPAUD also but as I was already short on GBPUSD I didn't want to double up on the net effect of wanting the GBP to weaken.
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