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Trading Made Simple

  • #75,521
  • Feb 4, 2017 12:56am Feb 4, 2017 12:56am
Emmanuel,if i want trade Daily chart,must I check Monthly chart or Weekly only?

Thanks
Mi odino pure, purche' mi temano. (Gaio Cesare Germanico Caligola)
  • #75,522
  • Feb 4, 2017 5:28am Feb 4, 2017 5:28am
hi,nice to meet you,i've reed a part of this post and i use this metod in demo...i use the standard set up but i know this set up too (TDI :RSI period 10,RSI price 05,vol.bad 34,RSI price band 03,RSI type 01,trade signal line 07,trade signal type 00) in your opinion,this version is better than original?
  • #75,523
  • Feb 4, 2017 6:28am Feb 4, 2017 6:28am
Quoting inforserve
Interesting !!!! ME/ME back testing for NZD/USD from 1st of Jan 2016 - 15th of April 2016. Trading plan 1. Put the trade when H4, D1, W1 point to the same direction ( H4, D1 TDI cross ) 2. Unless W1 is point to different direction against initial direction, keep adding positions when it retrace with 1/2 ADR for pair with maximum 3 . 3. Take a profit whenever it reached around 50 pips. 4. cut loss 6% of balance or when W1 change direction. 5. Trade with 0.01 nano lot Limitation : 1.Since it's back-testing I couldn't look at different TF. 2. I only...
How do you backtest this strategy on METATRADER. Help me out
  • #75,524
  • Feb 4, 2017 8:05am Feb 4, 2017 8:05am
Quoting nanacarter
{quote} How do you backtest this strategy on METATRADER. Help me out
Hi N
Just sharing my insight. 1st back-testing is a myth.Factors that contribute price on any given time is unique forever therefore its foolish to expect what has happened previously will happen again in same manner(read about probability).
2nd and more important is that almost all systems are discretionary meaning you have to analyze which signals to take which not and often this has lot to do with experience
Trader A may get out at -20pip loss Trader B may wait little longer and come out in profit instead of a loss.Same variables same signals.
This is the reason why any strategy can be profitable and not be profitable same time despite of rigid rules.
I do recommend you read on Turtle experiment to get an idea what I am sharing.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #75,525
  • Feb 4, 2017 10:18am Feb 4, 2017 10:18am
Good Day Everyone ! First of all a BIG THANKS to all the contributors.

I am struggling with placing my stop losses in the Big E's method. Can anyone please point me in the right direction.

Thanks
  • #75,526
  • Feb 4, 2017 10:51am Feb 4, 2017 10:51am
Quoting traderji28
Good Day Everyone ! First of all a BIG THANKS to all the contributors. I am struggling with placing my stop losses in the Big E's method. Can anyone please point me in the right direction. Thanks
3%
  • #75,527
  • Feb 4, 2017 10:59am Feb 4, 2017 10:59am
Quoting traderji28
Good Day Everyone ! First of all a BIG THANKS to all the contributors. I am struggling with placing my stop losses in the Big E's method. Can anyone please point me in the right direction. Thanks
post a chart with a trade setup and I will explain to you.

get some ideas from this post.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post6907149
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #75,528
  • Edited 11:37am Feb 4, 2017 11:13am | Edited 11:37am
Quoting nanacarter
{quote} How do you backtest this strategy on METATRADER. Help me out

the most simple way for this 'system' is to scroll back to history charts and look at where all the previous setups were on your charts.
Take note of the followings: -
1) The price action - the swing lows and swing highs reversals, the big candles, small candles consolidation areas,
2) The 5-Method reversal trade setups - where the APB candles shows reversal and the TDI cross
3) The bounce trade setups - note the price pull back or consolidation, the TDI Green pull back to the Red before it bounces off the Red,
Take note of the time and note the pattern.

Note I wrote 'system' and not strategy. This is not a strategy yet, you first learn to look for 5-Method trade setups ... then we develop a trading system using this method.

Read this recent post and attached pdf.
Know what is backtesting and what you are backtesting, how to backtests using history data and what you can learn from backtesting,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...51#post9463251

how to run a back testing of a money management strategy is a different story....
one example when you cannot do when backtesting is when your trades are in heavy drawdown DD and near margin call, you cannot top-up your trading account in any strategy tester to prevent that margin call.

some technical indicators cannot run in MT4 strategy tester because indicators that predicts future will fail.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #75,529
  • Feb 4, 2017 11:29am Feb 4, 2017 11:29am
Quoting Pretoriano
Emmanuel,if i want trade Daily chart,must I check Monthly chart or Weekly only? Thanks

I use Monthly and Weekly charts for top down analysis to do my Big Picture Plan.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #75,530
  • Feb 4, 2017 12:02pm Feb 4, 2017 12:02pm
Quoting Zokynho
{quote} Hello Emmanuel7788, I have few questions if you don't mind, this is great example for my questions... You decided that you want to be buyer and i wonder how you doing it further: 1.where were you sl and how much you risk in % of account on that first entry? 2.what happens next? you are adding re-entries....how much you risk per entries both on % of account and pips risk? What are you doing when market turns,are you cuuting sl or you just leave when sl is getting hit? 3.Lets say market go against you,how much DD you are willing to close in...
Hi,

There are many different market scenarios which requires different attention therefore it is not possible to provide generic answers but I will try give some basic answers to your 5 questions.

1.where were you sl and how much you risk in % of account on that first entry?

I use volatility based SL for position sizing and technical SL to protect my trading account in case of big moves.
Risk per currency pair traded is 1% to 2% max.
This is divided into 5 smaller units 0.2% per trade, maximum 5 trades in one basket.
Maximum risk is 10% for 5 pairs traded at the same time.


2.what happens next? you are adding re-entries....how much you risk per entries both on % of account and pips risk? What are you doing when market turns,are you cuuting sl or you just leave when sl is getting hit?

When there are 3 or more open trades in one basket, I will close some trades at breakeven and keep one trade running with a profit protection like a trailing stop. re-entries are based on same risk 0.2% per trade. Common to have losing trades in one basket but very few losing baskets.

3.Lets say market go against you,how much DD you are willing to close in all positions per account (in %)?

Maximum DD is 10%. This will enable a easier recovery of the account DD. It is almost impossible to recover from DD of 20% and above.
From experience, 5% to 10% DD can be recovered within two completed 20-days trading cycles

4.How much did you profit overall in this cycle?

Each trading cycle is 20 days with profit target 10%. Objective KPI is to reach 10% profit in less tan 20 trading days cycle.
This current cycle my average number of trading days is 11 days.

5.Is there time cycle that you want to close all positions regrding what market doing?

I close trading cycle by end Oct before when I go on year-end vacation usually in Nov to Dec months.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #75,531
  • Feb 4, 2017 12:16pm Feb 4, 2017 12:16pm
Hi Emmanuel , may I ask about the risk-calculation and managing :

"2.what happens next? you are adding re-entries....how much you risk per entries both on % of account and pips risk? What are you doing when market turns,are you cuuting sl or you just leave when sl is getting hit?

When there are 3 or more open trades in one basket, I will close some trades at breakeven and keep one trade running with a profit protection like a trailing stop. re-entries are based on same risk 0.2% per trade. Common to have losing trades in one basket but very few losing baskets."

Lets say you short a EU trade , at 10750, SL is 1.10 ...
1st order 0,2% risk at 1.0750
2nd order 0.2% risk at 1.0800
3rd order 0.2% risk at 1.0850
4th order 0.2% risk at 1.0900
5th order 0.2 % risk at 1.0950

And worst case this trade , splitted to 5 orders each 0.2% risk =1% risk of equity.

.. now the question .. in this case its a positionsizing ??? , or how should 50 pips to SL = 0.2%
and 250 pips to SL = 0.2% same risk , different distance



With what tool do you calculate and manage these orders and place them ?

PS
Lotsize can be calculated with a calculator, no big deal .
Do you place them with a tool or just add pending orders ?



Thanks
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #75,532
  • Feb 4, 2017 1:09pm Feb 4, 2017 1:09pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi N Just sharing my insight. 1st back-testing is a myth.Factors that contribute price on any given time is unique forever therefore its foolish to expect what has happened previously will happen again in same manner(read about probability). 2nd and more important is that almost all systems are discretionary meaning you have to analyze which signals to take which not and often this has lot to do with experience Trader A may get out at -20pip loss Trader B may wait little longer and come out in profit instead of a loss.Same variables same...
 Thanks
  • #75,533
  • Feb 4, 2017 1:10pm Feb 4, 2017 1:10pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} the most simple way for this 'system' is to scroll back to history charts and look at where all the previous setups were on your charts. Take note of the followings: - 1) The price action - the swing lows and swing highs reversals, the big candles, small candles consolidation areas, 2) The 5-Method reversal trade setups - where the APB candles shows reversal and the TDI cross 3) The bounce trade setups - note the price pull back or consolidation, the TDI Green pull back to the Red before it bounces off the Red, Take note of the time and...
Thanks
  • #75,534
  • Feb 4, 2017 2:10pm Feb 4, 2017 2:10pm
Lot size Calculator

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http://www.noafx.com/forex-calculator.php
  • #75,535
  • Edited 4:38pm Feb 4, 2017 2:30pm | Edited 4:38pm
Another back testing. This time I used my EA to buy automatically as it retraced by 1/2 ADR. There is no human emotion involved at all. Again key to success on this ME/ME seems like depend on how accurately identify the trending market. High TF analysis is critical for this method to identify swing high & low. (IMHO)
As you can see there were three draw down.


Profit taking : about one day ADR
Risk : 6% of account balance.
Trading lot : 0.01 nano lot.



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  • #75,536
  • Feb 4, 2017 6:26pm Feb 4, 2017 6:26pm
Quoting inforserve
Another back testing. This time I used my EA to buy automatically as it retraced by 1/2 ADR. There is no human emotion involved at all. Again key to success on this ME/ME seems like depend on how accurately identify the trending market. High TF analysis is critical for this method to identify swing high & low. (IMHO) As you can see there were three draw down. Profit taking : about one day ADR Risk : 6% of account balance. Trading lot : 0.01 nano lot. Image2.png;2172807 Image3.png;2172833 Image1.png;2172801 {image} {image} {image}

why backtest with $500? you are limited to trade the smallest lots size 0.01lot.
$500 , ... that is money you can afford to lose.

do you back testing as real as possible.
the median income in Australia is A$78,000 per annum.
use that as your trading capital
divide that into 5 portions, each portion for a currency pair when you trade 5 pairs.
that would make A$15,000 per currency pair, you can risk 1% to 2% risk and position sizing this way.

remember your objectives in doing backtesting.
1) is to test the money management strategy
2) is your entry and exit strategy
3) test your DD management *** you cannot top up you account to avoid margin call when backtesting... then backtesting becomes a myth.
...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #75,537
  • Feb 4, 2017 6:38pm Feb 4, 2017 6:38pm
Quoting inforserve
Another back testing. This time I used my EA to buy automatically as it retraced by 1/2 ADR. There is no human emotion involved at all. Again key to success on this ME/ME seems like depend on how accurately identify the trending market. High TF analysis is critical for this method to identify swing high & low. (IMHO) As you can see there were three draw down. Profit taking : about one day ADR Risk : 6% of account balance. Trading lot : 0.01 nano lot. Image2.png;2172807 Image3.png;2172833 Image1.png;2172801 {image} {image} {image}

Start running forward testing in live market with money management strategy.
use a demo trading account which is the size of your annual income and make it as real as possible. this will help you in the conditioning of your mind and develop the mental fitness to trade this ME/ME way. You need to feel the market and the pain when you see trades go into DD. When you are in DD, this when you start to think and act in innovative ways to recover from DD. You will learn to feel the rhythm of the market. The market will teach you what it does in twists and turns, blind spots and 'hidden gems' which you failed to see in backtesting and in history charts.
I did forward testing for almost 2 years before I went live more than 5 years ago.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #75,538
  • Feb 4, 2017 7:06pm Feb 4, 2017 7:06pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} why backtest with $500? you are limited to trade the smallest lots size 0.01lot. $500 , ... that is money you can afford to lose. do you back testing as real as possible. the median income in Australia is A$78,000 per annum. use that as your trading capital divide that into 5 portions, each portion for a currency pair when you trade 5 pairs. that would make A$15,000 per currency pair, you can risk 1% to 2% risk and position sizing this way. remember your objectives in doing backtesting. 1) is to test the money management strategy 2) is your...
Right!!! I got your point.
Too much for back testing. I will do forward testing with demo.

Many thanks !!!


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  • #75,539
  • Feb 4, 2017 9:23pm Feb 4, 2017 9:23pm
Hi emmanuel,
I have a question on take profit.
If you set a stop loss at, same 50pips,
will you set the take profit on 1:2risk, i.e. 100pips?
Or just on the next resistance/ support?

As I always face the issue that the position is running on the right direction,
but suddenly it retrace/ reversal to my break even.
The position closed at break even, even sometimes loss if I did not move my stop lose.

Thanks in advance.
  • #75,540
  • Feb 5, 2017 12:12am Feb 5, 2017 12:12am
The only way to earn some money with trading is keep it simple, with less indicators as possible. Having a plan and a good mindset and most important, good Trade Management and with every position a good Risk/Reward. And... when you are in position, let the position run to your predefined Stoploss and Take Profit level!!!! Do not intervene! I know it's hard, but when you do, it is emotion trading and you will lose money, definitely!

It took me years to realize and to learn this. The way Trading Made Simple in this thread, it has become far too difficult. My opinion of course, never mind. Every adding indicator or other "crap" makes it more and more difficult and will be input for more doubt and keeps you away from pushing the button to go into position. I know everything about it
Keep it simple without too many crappy indicators!
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