What to do with $100? - 2nd trial

Experimental Design
Leverage 1:100

xagusd, monthly, 2017 february 02

spx500usd, long @ 2'269.6, target @ 2'280

spx500usd, daily, 2017 february 02

#3

the target was hit
exit @ 2'280 (+8.9%)

Overview

nas100usd, h4, 2017 february 02

Overview

actual equity: 144.-$

"Whatever failures I have known, whatever errors I have committed, whatever follies I have witnessed in private and public life have been the consequence of action without thought." - Bernard Baruch

http://www.financialwisdomforum.org/forum/

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...tophunting.asp

Stop Hunting With The Big Forex Players
By Boris Schlossberg
The forex market is the most leveraged financial market in the world. In equities, standard margin is set at 2:1, which means that a trader must put up at least $50 cash to control $100 worth of stock. In options, the leverage increases to 10:1, with $10 controlling $100. In the futures markets, the leverage factor is increased to 20:1. (Read more, in Manage Risk With Trailing Stops And Protective Put Options.)

For example, in a Dow Jones futures e-mini contract, a trader only needs $2,500 to control $50,000 worth of stock. However, none of these markets approaches the intensity of the forex market, where the default leverage at most dealers is set at 100:1 and can rise up to 200:1. That means that a mere $50 can control up to $10,000 worth of currency. Why is this important? First and foremost, the high degree of leverage can make FX either extremely lucrative or extraordinarily dangerous, depending on which side of the trade you are on.
In FX, retail traders can literally double their accounts overnight or lose it all in a matter of hours if they employ the full margin at their disposal, although most professional traders limit their leverage to no more than 10:1 and never assume such enormous risk. But regardless of whether they trade on 200:1 leverage or 2:1 leverage, almost everyone in FX trades with stops. In this article, you'll learn how to use stops to set up the "stop hunting with the big specs" strategy.

Stops are Key
Precisely because the forex market is so leveraged, most market players understand that stops are critical to long-term survival. The notion of "waiting it out", as some equity investors might do, simply does not exist for most forex traders. Trading without stops in the currency market means that the trader will inevitably face forced liquidation in the form of a margin call. With the exception of a few long-term investors who may trade on a cash basis, a large portion of forex market participants are believed to be speculators, therefore, they simply do not have the luxury of nursing a losing trade for too long because their positions are highly leveraged. (For related reading, see Trading Trend Or Range?)
Because of this unusual duality of the FX market (high leverage and almost universal use of stops), stop hunting is a very common practice. Although it may have negative connotations to some readers, stop hunting is a legitimate form of trading. It is nothing more than the art of flushing the losing players out of the market. In forex-speak they are known as weak longs or weak shorts. Much like a strong poker player may take out less capable opponents by raising stakes and "buying the pot", large speculative players (like investment banks, hedge funds and money center banks) like to gun stops in the hope of generating further directional momentum. In fact, the practice is so common in FX that any trader unaware of these price dynamics will probably suffer unnecessary losses. (To learn more, check out Keep An Eye On Momentum.)
Because the human mind naturally seeks order, most stops are clustered around round numbers ending in "00". For example, if the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.2470 and rising in value, most stops would reside within one or two points of the 1.2500 price point rather than, say, 1.2517. This fact alone is valuable knowledge, as it clearly indicates that most retail traders should place their stops at less crowded and more unusual locations.
More interesting, however, is the possibility of profit from this unique dynamic of the currency market. The fact that the FX market is so stop driven gives scope to several opportunistic setups for short-term traders. In her book "Day Trading The Currency Market" (2005), Kathy Lien describes one such setup based on fading the "00" level. The approach discussed here is based on the opposite notion of joining the short-term momentum. (Read on to learn how to Maximize Profits With Volatility Stops.)

Taking Advantage of the Hunt
The "stop hunting with the big specs" is an exceedingly simple setup, requiring nothing more than a price chart and one indicator. Here is the setup in a nutshell: On a one-hour chart, mark lines 15 points of either side of the round number. For example, if the EUR/USD is approaching the 1.2500 figure, the trader would mark off 1.2485 and 1.2515 on the chart. This 30-point area is known as the "trade zone", much like the 20-yard line on the football field is known as the "redzone". Both names communicate the same idea - namely that the participants have a high probability of scoring once they enter that area.
The idea behind this setup is straightforward. Once prices approach the round-number level, speculators will try to target the stops clustered in that region. Because FX is a decentralized market, no one knows the exact amount of stops at any particular "00" level, but traders hope that the size is large enough to trigger further liquidation of positions - a cascade of stop orders that will push price farther in that direction than it would move under normal conditions.
Therefore, in the case of long setup, if the price in the EUR/USD was climbing toward the 1.2500 level, the trader would go long the pair with two units as soon as it crossed the 1.2485 threshold. The stop on the trade would be 15 points back of the entry because this is a strict momentum trade. If prices do not immediately follow through, chances are the setup failed. The profit target on the first unit would be the amount of initial risk or approximately 1.2500, at which point the trader would move the stop on the second unit to breakeven to lock in profit. The target on the second unit would be two times initial risk or 1.2515, allowing the trader to exit on a momentum burst.
Aside from watching these key chart levels, there is only one other rule that a trader must follow in order to optimize the probability of success. Because this setup is basically a derivative of momentum trading, it should be traded only in the direction of the larger trend. There are numerous ways to ascertain direction using technical analysis, but the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly charts may be particularly effective in this case. By using a longer term average on the short-term charts, you can stay on the right side of the price action without being subject to near-term whipsaw moves. (For more insight, see Momentum Trading With Discipline.)

Let's take a look at two trades - one a short and the other a long - to see how this setup is traded in real time.

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articl.../StopFig1r.gif
Figure 1

Note that on June 8, 2006, the EUR/USD is trading well below its 200 SMA, indicating that the pair is in a strong downtrend (Figure 1). As prices approach the 1.2700 level from the downside, the trader would initiate a short the moment price crosses the 1.2715 level, putting a stop 15 points above the entry at 1.2730. In this particular example, the downside momentum is extremely strong as traders gun stops at the 1.2700 level within the hour. The first half of the trade is exited at 1.2700 for a 15-point profit and the second half is exited at 1.2685 generating 45 points of reward for only 30 points of risk.

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articl.../StopFig2r.gif
Figure 2

The example illustrated in Figure 2 also takes place on June 8, 2006, but this time in the USD/JPY the "trade-zone" setup generates several opportunities for profit over a short period of time as key stop cluster areas are probed over and over. In this case, the pair trades well above its 200 period SMA and, therefore, the trader would only look to take long setups. At 3am EST, the pair trades through the 113.85 level, triggering a long entry. In the next hour, the longs are able to push the pair through the 114.00 stop cluster level and the trader would sell one unit for a 15-point profit, immediately moving the stop to breakeven at 113.85. The longs can't sustain the buying momentum and the pair trades back below 113.85, taking the trader out of the market. Only two hours later, however, prices once again rally through 113.85 and the trader gets long once more. This time, both profit targets are hit as buying momentum overwhelms the shorts and they are forced to cover their positions, creating a cascade of stops that verticalize prices by 100 points in only two hours.

Conclusion
The "stop hunt with the big specs" is one of the simplest and most efficient FX setups available to short-term traders. It requires nothing more than focus and a basic understanding of currency market dynamics. Instead of being victims of stop hunting expeditions, retail traders can finally turn the tables and join the move with the big players, banking short-term profits in the process.

Read more: Stop Hunting With The Big Forex Players | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#ixzz4Xk1dATgy
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Claude Debussy, Prélude à l'Après-midi d'un faune

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stophunting.asp

Stop Hunting

DEFINITION of 'Stop Hunting'
A strategy that attempts to force some market participants out of their positions by driving the price of an asset to a level where many individuals have chosen to set their stop-loss orders. The triggering of many stop losses generally leads to high volatility and can present a unique opportunity for investors who seek to trade in this environment.

BREAKING DOWN 'Stop Hunting'
Understanding that the price of an asset can experience sharp moves when many stop losses are triggered can be useful when seeking potential trading opportunities. For example, assume that ABC Company's stock is trading at $50.36 and looks as though it may be heading lower. It is possible that many traders will place their stop losses just below $50, at $49.99, so that they can still hold onto the shares and benefit from an upward move while also limiting the downside. If the price falls below $50, traders expect a flood of sell orders as many stop losses are triggered. This will then will push the price lower and give some traders the opportunity to profit from the decline.

Read more: Stop Hunting Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/...#ixzz4Xk2XEtlC
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http://www.moneyshow.com/articles.as...currency-29951

What Is Stop-Loss Hunting?
Published: 06/19/2014 6:00 am EST
By: Nick Simpson


http://msgraphics.azureedge.net/cont...s/forex_08.jpg

Forex trader Nick Simpson of Forex-FX-4X.com looks at a phenomenon called "stop loss hunting" and tells you whether or not it really exists.
Do you ever ask yourself "is the market chasing my stop loss?" Have you adapted a trading strategy to exploit the weaknesses in other traders' systems? Many traders feel that the market is hunting for stop losses. They may well be right. I'm not referring to a random spike created by a forex broker. We will look at order placement and order flow, otherwise known as market microstructure.

Are you positioning yourself to take advantage of the order flow? We will start with stop losses. Stops are likely to accumulate in certain locations on a chart. This includes, but is not limited to, the following areas:

1. Recent Highs and Lows
2. Round Numbers
3. Popular Moving Averages Including 10, 20, 50, and 100 Periods
4. Fibonacci Levels
5. Market Open Levels (Less Relevant for Forex But Still a Consideration)
6. Technical Confluence Zones Comprising the Above
7. Barrier Options
8. Many More Areas.

Big Traders Seeking Liquidity
Market liquidity is considered to be "an asset's ability to be sold without causing a significant movement in the price and with minimum loss of value." Big market players with huge orders are not able to trade like the smaller retail traders. When they initiate a position, a substantial order often needs to be filled and price can easily go against them; this comes as they create a large imbalance in the supply and demand. Markets move as a consequence of the liquidity between the bid and ask prices.


What these big traders need is a location where they'd be capable of filing orders with no/minimal slippage. What about our previously referenced accumulation of stop loss orders? Running the stops here would likely help them fill a large position with enough traders taking the opposite side in order to prevent major slippage; therefore provide the large traders with a better average fill. So let's say this huge trader (or a big group of traders) has pushed price through a major round number; they do this knowing there is a good chance that stop loss/buy stop orders will be there as some traders exit bad trades and other speculate on higher prices and trade accordingly. If there are maybe $75 million worth of orders at a given level, the large traders will be keen to drive the underlying price up to set off the stop orders and subsequently get a fill for their orders. If substantial offers appear at a given price, but relatively small volume is transacted, what is this saying to you? With this in mind do you think that there are benefits to reading order flow in short-term trading?

https://www.jarrattdavis.com/forex-b...t-stop-losses/

Do Forex Brokers Hunt Your Stop Losses?
10 Sep / Forex Trading Analysis

Hi Everyone,
In this video I will explain stop hunting and who is doing it;

If you’re not familiar with stop hunting it’s basically where you place a position on a trade with a stop loss, then the market will trend down take you out and then go back in the original direction which you had been hoping for.

For example if you place a trade knowing that it’s going to trend up, put on your position but observe the market quickly spike down take out your stop loss, take you out of the trade for a loss and then return in the original direction.

A lot of traders get very frustrated about this and it is something that does happen I’ve witnessed it happen several times and it’s happened to me. A lot of retail traders think stop hunting is done by brokers; what they think is that the brokers can see where your position, can see you stop loss is then widen the spreads a little and take you out and pocket the cash.

In reality that is a myth, there may be some unscrupulous brokers in some far flung corner of the world that do practice that, however generally mainstream brokers that are regulated will not, it is very very rare. There are however some people out there that are actively hunting your stops but it’s not your broker.

First things first, why wouldn’t the broker do it; well if we think about it in the brokers best interest for you to be trading profitably. Bear in mind that every time you make a profitable trade they get commission, to simplify it every time you take a trade the broker takes a pip or a fraction of the spread. If you are a very good trader who makes regular, consistent profits in the market, each time you take a trade, that broker makes a commission either directly or by adding a little bit onto your spread. This means, therefore, that the more you trade, the more they make, and this gets more infinite as your account balance grows and your position size increases. To put it another way, they make far more over time from the good traders than they do from the bad ones. They also get the money from the bad ones anyway, as they over- leverage and over -trade.

Quite simply, it is in the broker’s best interest to stay away and let each trader go their own course; because ultimately, they will make money either way.

With that in mind; who is responsible, well the reason that stop hunting happens is because large funds such as hedge funds and large institutional traders have to find buy orders to match their sell orders and this is where they hunt your stops, so to speak.

To better understand this, we need to develop a deeper insight into how the larger institutions operate and how their operations affect our trading plans. The distinction here is purely down to trade size; so even though I was trading millions of dollars at the height of my fund trading career, I was still considered a ‘tiny fish’ in the same pool as the retail clients trading their own micro-accounts.

When looking for trading opportunities, the whole basis of our operation is to calculate which way the market might go next. More importantly, we need to time it stringently so that we enter the market in thatdirection as it starts taking off.

This is known as the ‘Perfect Trade’.

A large institution such as a bank, on the other hand, will significantly differ in the way that they trade. These are the players creating the moves and thus they have to time things completely differently.

Now, imagine that you are a large bank and that you have previously bought into the market and the market has now rallied so that you are in profit. The problem for you is that when you engage the market, you move it. This means that when you click ‘buy’, the price almost always goes up, until your order can be satisfied with enough sellers. This, of course, ends up giving you a worse price. This is called ‘slippage’, and is a big issue for large scale traders.

Another major issue is that of taking profits. Just like ‘slippage’, the same rules apply; if you just dump your position, the market is likely to revert against you (when closing a ‘buy’ order, you must sell it back to the market and that short, can push the price back down towards your entry point, wiping out some of the profits).

It’s a troubling problem as I’m sure you’ll agree.

So the question is; how do large players exit their positions whilst ensuring that they do not push the price against themselves?

The answer is, of course, ‘stop hunting’!

Here is an example:

The Large Player (LP) is long in position and wants to exit and take their profits.

The price is just below a level of strong resistance and the LP can see that there is likely to be a lot of traders placing Sell Orders at that level. In anticipation of the price moving down from that level, they can also see any orders that are placed on their books at these areas; providing further confirmation of pools of liquidity being present.

Additionally, the LP now knows that there is likely to be a nice big pool of Stop Loss Orders just above that level of resistance. This is where those traders will be cutting their losses in the event of the resistance failing to push price down.

These Stop Losses will of course, be Buying Orders.

Remember, the LP wants to sell their position back to the market so in order to do this (and to avoid pushing the price back down against themselves), they need enough buyers at a single price.

The pool of Stop Loss Orders (Buying Orders) is perfect for this.

The LP then calculates the cost of slightly pushing the price up, through the resistance level to the pool of Stop Loss Orders. Then, if it’s cost effective to do so, the LP forces the price to spike up into the orders. Here, they close their main position and due to their order size, avoid the price coming down.

As retail traders, we see these spikes, take out our stops and then drop in our intended direction and immediately get annoyed and think there is a conspiracy to get us. The truth is that there is a conspiracy; but it’s not personal and it’s usually the larger traders and not your broker working against you in this manner.

http://www.streetdirectory.com/trave...ng_occurs.html

Forex Trading Education - How Stop-loss Hunting Occurs
By: Harold Hsuhttp://x1.sdimgs.com/img/button/carz..._icon_mail.gifhttp://x1.sdimgs.com/img/button/icon_print_small.gif

Stop-loss hunting is essentially the act of a powerful (i.e. wealthy) financial institution that temporarily causes the market price to hit your stop-loss order and causing you to exit the market at a loss. In this short article, I will discuss the typical market conditions that encourage stop-loss hunting, and how to avoid it.

How Does It Happen?

For stop-loss hunting to occur, the financial institutions will need to buy (or sell) a large volume of currency before prices can move in the direction that the institutional traders want them to.

Thus, the institutional traders will typically prefer to hunt for stop-losses when the trading volume is low, such as the time just before an important economic news announcement.

Here's what happens:

1.The institutional traders wait for prices to hit a resistance level (for example)
2.They enter orders to purchase a large volume of currency
3.Because the trading volume is low, the large buying order will cause market prices to shoot up past the resistance level
4.All the poor traders who placed their stop-losses a few pips above the resistance level will get stopped out
5.Because their stops (buy stop orders) are hit, the price will continue to go up even higher, hitting more of other traders' stop-losses!
6.Next, the institutional traders sell the currency because everyone else will be looking to sell, and prices are likely to go back down again since all the buyers have already been 'exhausted'

How To Avoid Stop-Loss Hunting

Unfortunately, there is no sure way of stopping this from happening. The only thing you can do is to avoid trading during the off-peak trading times, or times before an economic announcement. These are all times of low liquidity and it's easier for the financial institutions to influence market prices then.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?
Mendelssohn Violin Concerto E Minor OP.64 (Full Length) : Hilary Hahn & FRSO

Kiana Danial. Money Management Techniques. Forex Day 2016. English Version

how do you focus on trading talk with a girl like that..

#19