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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #4,041
  • Feb 2, 2017 10:47pm Feb 2, 2017 10:47pm
Quoting baile
I have a question, can one fully rely on news, I mean could there not be some hiccups along the way?
I answer the words of a good trader -
"The worst thing you can do is not to try to"

and a little bit of yourself, you will not understand this trade is not put into their work themselves.

good luck
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,042
  • Feb 3, 2017 7:00am Feb 3, 2017 7:00am
What tool do you use for trading news based on actual data?

thanks
  • #4,043
  • Feb 3, 2017 7:06am Feb 3, 2017 7:06am
Thoughts on "smart traders"
US Non-Farm Employment Change

NFP continues to hold the lead in the ranking of dangerous indicators. A large amount of data coming into the market, can easily cause spiking quotes, talking the price up and down. Headliner Employment Change is in order, he published the first, but the market is not willing to consider it only "one".
For publications:
US Unemployment Rate
US Nonfarm Payrolls
US Average Hourly Earnings [y / y]
US Average Hourly Earnings [m / m]
US Average Weekly Hours
US Labor Force Participation Rate
The greatest attention is attracted to: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings
Trade is conducted on Nonfarm Payrolls
Sensitivity to the extent the fact of deviation from the forecast for the NFP - blurred!
Small deviations can cause excess movement trading pairs with the same probability as large deviations from the fact that the forecast will not be able to call and small movements.
In other words, it is not necessarily that large deviations will be a lot of traffic. All traffic at the time of publication of the indicator is based on a comprehensive assessment of the indicator statistics! You almost play cat and mouse in this moment, only one (NFP), when the board will be at least five important indicators of the release.
From the background you can see different currency for trade. After the good of the British Parliament on Brexit pressure remains pound. Canadian hiding - it will follow the job market in the next Friday, etc ...
On Wednesday we received a buy signal from the optimism of ADP (246K).
ISM Manufacturing PMI and the employment component also grew: 56.1 (January) vs. 52.8 (Dec.)
Forecasts range near 170K - 180K and 4.7% for unemployment.
We omit several triggers (as it mentioned above), by and large, there is no guarantee a solid, and +/- here and there, amid the potential for conflict, has no role (almost).
NFP - a place where the trader is always extremely cautious and not encouraged by.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,044
  • Feb 3, 2017 7:08am Feb 3, 2017 7:08am
Quoting paulh2526gm
What tool do you use for trading news based on actual data? thanks
base
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,045
  • Feb 3, 2017 7:37am Feb 3, 2017 7:37am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,046
  • Feb 3, 2017 7:48am Feb 3, 2017 7:48am
A different way to trade NFP ...spread back to normal, no stress.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-02-03 22_41_29-110 - USDJPY_ecn,M1.png Size: 33 KB
  • #4,047
  • Edited 8:05am Feb 3, 2017 7:49am | Edited 8:05am
Great weekend to everyone.
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,048
  • Feb 3, 2017 10:15am Feb 3, 2017 10:15am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,049
  • Feb 5, 2017 9:41am Feb 5, 2017 9:41am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Non-Farm without masks or equal to 35 13

The market reacted to the equivalent positive and negative data (usually the primary reaction to the NFP, on the second salary) rendered thus saw the quotations, which is a major and well-known risk at the time of publication of NFP. Gradually increasing the pressure on the part of the new president's administration, as well as doubts about the speed of increase of the Fed left rates under pressure from the dollar on Friday.
Attached Image

We observe a significant reduction in the probability of the Fed raising rates at the March meeting: 35% chance to become 10-15%, which can cause further speculation against the dollar.

But the final question: "it is poor Non-Farm» remains open, as the indicator still shows a stable positive dynamics of growth of new jobs. At the same time, only a single set of a synergy of positive indications of the labor market can convince the market in reverse: income, jobs and resources involved in a full working day should go head to head, as we have repeatedly reminded

The report has several shaken the confidence of one of themembers of the FOMC, Evans Fed "saw" additional incentives on the part of US fiscal policy, but wants a gradual increase in interest rates (not in the context of "the time has come to raise", and in the context of "hold your horses, we will plow slowly but surely ").

Not only the dollar came under pressure this week, but also its "ally" - the pound sterling, which was not able to enjoy the full extent of mixed US labor market data, remaining at the bottom of the weekly extremes.
Attached Image


A. Posted inflation report did not contain any significant changes
B. Indicators PMI fell back (recall that these indicators are advancing and reflect the sentiment index sector of the economy)
B. Published Brexit plan so ship leaves the harbor according to the schedule
As a result, the Bank of England is in the way of the probability of interest rate increase, rather than vice versa, but this probability (the rate increase) for 2017 was reduced from 50% chance of up to 30% probability.

Note that Mark Carney (head of the Central Bank) suggests: a temporary drawdown of inflation and monetary tightening may occur faster if wages continue to rise.

Governor of the Bank of Canada, speaking on Wednesday noted that "the likelihood of interest rate cuts is still pending," that was some coolness to the market, as we expect very different statements. Bank of Canada submitted a statement in the form of new risks ... Trump, and his views on the external arrangement, recalled the US withdrawal from the NAFTA, part of which is Canada.

It seems that the Bank of Canada is not the only one thinking about lowering interest rates: published data on unemployment aggravate the situation for the RBNZ.

We sold the NZD in the deviation -0,4% Unemployment Rate from the forecast, which can push the RBNZ to further reduce interest rates in the near future. By the way, just the RBNZ will hold a meeting as early as this Wednesday.

Three interest rates on the nose
Trading Week promises to support a strong start in February: to publish interest rates in Australia, New Zealand and Mexico .... We are ready to turn their attention to MXN?

Tuesday. The chance is small, but do not miss the publication AU interest rate is likely to begin a series of new speculation about the Australian monetary policy prospects.

Wednesday. Certainly not miss NZ interest rate, the Bank for a long time thinking about the future rate cuts and a rollback in the labor market may push him to do everything faster.

On Thursday, we look at the publication of the interest rate in Mexico, is at stake: MX interest rate. The forecast assumes its rise from 5.75% to 6.25%, who knows that Mexicans plan actually. Previously, we have already received a great trade for the Turkish lira.

Another of the important, on Friday, the second publication of the ... Non-Farm, but now a Canadian. It is not so hard, so do not forget about it ...
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,050
  • Feb 5, 2017 9:43am Feb 5, 2017 9:43am
Tuesday
5:30
07/02/17
AU Interest HOT!
(AU Cash Rate), Australia, the AUDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 55.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,051
  • Feb 6, 2017 11:38am Feb 6, 2017 11:38am
Quoting vvFish
Tuesday 5:30 07/02/17 AU Interest HOT! (AU Cash Rate), Australia, the AUDUSD Average reaction when trigger 55.00 points in the first minute after the release. 15% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"
Changes in interest rates is expected. Interesting in this report can be feed materials from the RBA. Mediocre data of inflation and GDP growth could push the Bank to mitigate (or hints at easing) of monetary control policy that can mean the transfer rate on the way to reduce the interest rate policy. Prices on the real estate market is still high, which is an obstacle to the free management of monetary instruments.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,052
  • Feb 6, 2017 9:37pm Feb 6, 2017 9:37pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,053
  • Feb 7, 2017 5:16am Feb 7, 2017 5:16am
Wednesday
17:30
08/02/17
US reserves of crude oil and petroleum products
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Wednesday
22:00
08/02/17
NZ interest rate
(NZ Official Cash Rate), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,054
  • Feb 7, 2017 7:47am Feb 7, 2017 7:47am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,055
  • Feb 8, 2017 9:35am Feb 8, 2017 9:35am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,056
  • Feb 8, 2017 9:51am Feb 8, 2017 9:51am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

NZ Official Cash Rate.

RBNZ to cut interest rates as recently as November 2016, since its policy of easing of monetary policy remained neutral. At the same time, the Bank noted the growth of inflation, which according to the quarterly CPI approached the target range of the regulator.
And if this time the interest rate will remain unchanged (these are the expectations projected), the publication of the decision can still bring a good market volatility.
Among other things, the RBNZ will give a press conference (and we have not seen in session, in fact, in November), which will probably put a comma in the new market sentiment. That adjustment in the expectations of the intended monetary regulation and will be central to this evening.
Eventually:
- Economists suggest a lower interest rate, and see it possible to top 2018
- At the same time, there is a risk of early (than forecast) RBNZ action
- The key event of the evening will be a press conference and the minutes of the meeting, rather than the level of interest rates
RBNZ - this is one of those controls that are most often bring surprises the markets in question rate regulation. Accordingly, it is better to be present at the time of trading in any way.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,057
  • Feb 8, 2017 2:06pm Feb 8, 2017 2:06pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,058
  • Feb 8, 2017 2:08pm Feb 8, 2017 2:08pm
Post news trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-02-09 05_06_03-1- NZDUSD_ecn,M1.png Size: 25 KB
  • #4,059
  • Feb 8, 2017 2:11pm Feb 8, 2017 2:11pm
good job to both of you.



have you guys seen how the price dropped just few seconds before the actual release
  • #4,060
  • Feb 8, 2017 2:14pm Feb 8, 2017 2:14pm
Thursday
9:00
09/02/17
1 new comments
NO DANGER GDP growth
(NO GDP), Norway, EURNOK
Average reaction when trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
30% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"
Quarterly and complex indicator: consists of two parts (NO GDP - SA and NO GDP - Mainland Norway) - both indicators can contribute to the quotes. The probability of conflict is not excluded.
Get out, both at different times, and that will be the first in this time is difficult to say with certainty. Since this system is to prevent conflicts can not be configured. Both indicators will be adjusted to click - which is the first, is the winner. The second did not take place. Caught in the market - cross your fingers that the second supported the motion.

Thursday
17:30
09/02/17
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
21:00
09/02/17
MX NEW Interest
(MX Interest Rate), Mexico, USDMXN
Average reaction when trigger 40.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"
Second debut in 2017 on our servers - Mexican interest rate. It is pleasant, and the "cautious" event. Pleasant as it provides us with additional chances to receive the signal. "Careful," as trade exotic pairs is often associated with the work in the conditions of thin liquidity and complete lack of understanding on the part of traders or spread, nor the value of the pair.
Peso suffers from Trump and his desire to build a wall due to the additional tax on Mexican imports, it seems the Bank of Mexico will have to be more active in 2017, increasing our chances for auction here.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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