The Really Useless Thread | Page 7371 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,401
  • Feb 1, 2017 12:33pm Feb 1, 2017 12:33pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Fibs..working on the rest.. {image}
...uff ok lets go quickly over this. Don't think just take it !!!. That the idea behind a trigger. You have your direction, risk , positions, and all you just need a trigger so ...Lets go one by one again like in iteration 19 .... None of this are good or bad triggers is just a wide review of different tools.

 

  1. If you re right you will be right regardless of your trigger. That's the way I would recommend you to approach trading. so


-> First on the Slow Stochastic in a small TF to reduce drawdown ...here same as last time we use it a quick slow one. Two triggers already +/- in the same area

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Stochastic.png Size: 252 KB


-> On the fibs or magic lines. Just drop all that shit and noise. You got and told me that have a clear range and hasn't change since December why on earth you should be plotting or chart fitting Fibs and retraces?... Stick to the range !!!!. NO break, no shake no nothing and no nothing also mean no need to redraw charts or in this case those lines !!!!

Don't know your exact range but lets take the current one which is obvious one in play.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Fibs.png Size: 235 KB


Here price retraced and passed the 50% areas. If you entered blindly there you should have stopped out. If you are a sharper and prefer a Price Action more sound approach to trading you will have waited for a test of R and take it in the way back 50% .... so the there trigger ? you should be patiently waiting if we ever get back ...sure in this particular case 200 ticks far from the top but you do that to have minimun drawdown a prolly some momentum on the break back down .....

--> Finally PRICE BASE ALONE:

There is NO !!!! ZERO nothing. No one single entry either. You wonder why sisse prefer and by a mile or two a pure price base approach for entries? ....well point in is track a short in the next simple rejection entry with one miserable candle ...we'll talk later....

Finally now reaching the end of the road ...

Putting everything in perspective

 

  1. Your targets are too soft and cautions. You are betting for a mid term exhaustion leg and your max target is just the low not the break.
  2. You are getting lost in translation with your triggers (apart from the FA that have been messy to be honest this month)
  3. You are not focusing on Risk but in Gains
  4. Your Timing is wrong not only for the trigger but for the move you are betting. You are betting for a mid term swing continuation which takes weeks to months remember:

short term: days to weeks
mid term: weeks to months
long term: months to Quarter

Right or wrong on this trade. Believe me you will laugh at your charts and anxieties when you see this area at then end of the Q.

Final question:

So all clear now: Is choose your poison time SHORT TERM :

-> Shorts on the next price entry to your targets
or
-> Longs on the break back 1,0800 for 1.098x.

As simple as that.


sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,402
  • Feb 1, 2017 12:36pm Feb 1, 2017 12:36pm
...here we go for the FED> Not going in detail for the FED as don;t have time.

All micro and short term levels raised at least until we confirm no hikes (v. slight chances to none for a surprise today).

Markets expecting a rather mute FED. Anything else will trigger RMT and the consequent domino for the rest of the Quarter with Trump Tweets as the party popper ...

Same levels, same trades, same all across the board....we'll talks later ....

GL all.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,403
  • Feb 1, 2017 1:32pm Feb 1, 2017 1:32pm
Marginally hawkish but pretty much mute and inline with expectations.

Trump will trigger the next hike the day we get the details on the fiscal blow out...

Dollar cleared from the macro front for tbe foreseeable future but hijacked by politicians...so we know the drill after 8 years of EZ debt crisis sagas and 1 week of Trump tweets...

Back to Europe aftet the close for tomorrow double BOE and article 50 details...

sisse

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,404
  • Feb 1, 2017 2:06pm Feb 1, 2017 2:06pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...uff ok lets go quickly over this. Don't think just take it !!!. That the idea behind a trigger. You have your direction, risk , positions, and all you just need a trigger so ...Lets go one by one again like in iteration 19 .... None of this are good or bad triggers is just a wide review of different tools. If you re right you will be right regardless of your trigger. That's the way I would recommend you to approach trading. so -> First on the Slow Stochastic in a small TF to reduce drawdown ...here same as last time we use it a quick...
Thanks again for the in depth. I just meant to illustrate a point with the fib examples. I should have included some bear fibs but I was rushing to get out of the way of the news. Won't beleaguer the point. The trigger you set up in the iteration, in past 38% (or maybe it was mid) and closing back out 23% or something like that, (yet another way to use fibs I'd never seen before) was, I believe, triggered but that doesn't help anyone place a trade as far as my understanding of it goes. Point being, like i said, billions of ways to do it. Take a look at Pharmor's charts we were using for that. They speak a different language than that trigger does. The stochastic chart you got there is the 4H so looks pretty different than the daily you told me to use for this of course. The price examples I only came up with after thinking i was not seeing any the first time because I was being 'too technical' about it. Guess I wasn't on that part anyway. All that is semantic since I don't use indicators. I only mention it to say none of it is causing any 'anxiety'. Im trying to master these price triggers (I gotta be a special kind of blockhead not to get something so simple but it is what it is).
I see what you mean about the rest. I need to step back a bit and sync up. Match boat with fish, etc. All good advice and very helpful.
Before you wrote the quoted post I put up my plan for today after charting and rethinking the levels I fired off this morning. At that time I was thinking we had covered it all so once again my apologies to all for hogging the thread today.
  • #147,405
  • Feb 1, 2017 2:06pm Feb 1, 2017 2:06pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Fibs..working on the rest.. {image}
This exactly is the reason why i couldnt care less for fibs. Its one of the tools that is heavily exposed to over fitting. Many indicators/ tools are, and some are less, and price pattern if robustly and specficially specified fit way less and have less noise. One thing to remember, if you have pattern that has heavy over fitting by just little adjustments to price of how you draw/use it, just throw it away. You are better off by just guessing or Russian rouletting the entry. Statistics and performance have performance where noise is reduced to minimum as possible. Indicators especially the robust ones have advantage there, but in reality they (almost all) underperform heavily on trigger to performance entry (think of very clear MA crossover entry and what happens after most of time, a mess). Guess me, but i tested hundreds vs price and they underperform more often than not. Stick to price, and price patterns, but the key is to define price patterns as precise as possible and separate them, if you dont again you have overfitting on your hands. If you do, you have way less overfitting than most of traders out there.
Volatility, candle numbers per leg, candle sizes, highs and lows are good way to start with structure definitions to reduce noise, dont just go by highs/lows.
If you start there youll be better of in real terms than anyone using fibs or other overfitting tool. Two cents from this pirate....
  • #147,406
  • Feb 1, 2017 2:11pm Feb 1, 2017 2:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i am not sure if the fed has a clue. its hard to make policy when at the drop of a tweet, 100 thousand u.s. workers could be looking for a job. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...nday/95298168/
speak of the devil.. it didn't take long. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/01/trump...on-notice.html
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #147,407
  • Feb 1, 2017 2:12pm Feb 1, 2017 2:12pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} This exactly is the reason why i couldnt care less for fibs. Its one of the tools that is heavily exposed to over fitting. Many indicators/ tools are, and some are less, and price pattern if robustly and specficially specified fit way less and have less noise. One thing to remember, if you have pattern that has heavy over fitting by just little adjustments to price of how you draw/use it, just throw it away. You are better off by just guessing or Russian rouletting the entry. Statistics and performance have performance where noise is reduced...
Thats what I meant to illustrate there.
  • #147,408
  • Feb 1, 2017 2:12pm Feb 1, 2017 2:12pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Thanks again for the in depth. I just meant to illustrate a point with the fib examples. I should have included some bear fibs but I was rushing to get out of the way of the news. Won't beleaguer the point. The trigger you set up in the iteration, in past 38% (or maybe it was mid) and closing back out 23% or something like that, (yet another way to use fibs I'd never seen before) was, I believe, triggered but that doesn't help anyone place a trade as far as my understanding of it goes. Point being, like i said, billions of ways to do it....
Two ways to get consistent on trading. One is to understand very good macro catalysts (no TF, or economis related only) of where the price should be pushed more likely than not and then just using "some" trigger to get in. Many consistent traders fall in that area, where their trigger is actually low performing in real terms, but still makes money becouse catalysts pushes RR in real terms.
Second way is to get decent performant micro and macro with at least X% vs RR so that you end with profits after X entries. This relies heavily on reading the pattern right.
Either of them works, in either case you need to do homework no mattter which one you use. What you cannot do however is to guess or hope what might or might not work, logical expectations usually do not work in trading too well.
  • #147,409
  • Feb 1, 2017 3:01pm Feb 1, 2017 3:01pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Thats what I meant to illustrate there.
I know, i just pointed it out with different examples to get point across
  • #147,410
  • Feb 1, 2017 3:36pm Feb 1, 2017 3:36pm
Quoting sisse
Marginally hawkish but pretty much mute and inline with expectations. Trump will trigger the next hike the day we get the details on the fiscal blow out... Dollar cleared from the macro front for tbe foreseeable future but hijacked by politicians...so we know the drill after 8 years of EZ debt crisis sagas and 1 week of Trump tweets... Back to Europe aftet the close for tomorrow double BOE and article 50 details... sisse sisse
the the forecast budget has gone gone up with deficit forecast adding 1 trillion. meanwhile the past rhetoric was to. blow a boat out the water if a Iranian sailor shot the bird at a u.s. navy ship. i am curious on what firing a cruise missile will do.. stand by. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/01/trump...on-notice.html
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #147,411
  • Feb 1, 2017 3:57pm Feb 1, 2017 3:57pm
Ironic to be confirming Tillerson at the same time.
  • #147,412
  • Feb 1, 2017 4:00pm Feb 1, 2017 4:00pm
Quoting goosebone
Ironic to be confirming Tillerson at the same time.
scary more like
  • #147,413
  • Feb 1, 2017 5:02pm Feb 1, 2017 5:02pm
Wondered why Trump was silent on China - was he waiting for Tillerson to be secretary of state. Wonder if they are next on Trumps "to do list"
  • #147,414
  • Feb 1, 2017 5:10pm Feb 1, 2017 5:10pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quoter which one you use. What you cannot do however is to guess or hope what might or might not work, logical expectations usually do not work in trading too well.
No worries. I was just taking your post to make a general point. I saw your calls before I don't think you were lost in the fibs etc. I had only 10mins to wrap that series of posts before the FED....but you got the point.

sisse

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the the forecast budget has gone gone up with deficit forecast adding 1 trillion. meanwhile the past rhetoric was to. blow a boat out the water if a Iranian sailor shot the bird at a u.s. navy ship. i am curious on what firing a cruise missile will do.. stand by. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/01/trump...on-notice.html
I refrain to give a final technical opinion of the fiscal budget until we get all details.

I he walks the talk 100℅ my estimate is a bit higher. I wonder if the Republicans are going to be as vocal and blocking ws they have been the ladt 8 years ....politicians....ufff.

On the rest its just a flat track bully so far. Exactly as in the campaign. He will soon need to match am equal weight that's when the fireworks will start and the honeymoon will end...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,415
  • Feb 1, 2017 6:13pm Feb 1, 2017 6:13pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...but you got the point.
Definitely
  • #147,416
  • Feb 1, 2017 7:09pm Feb 1, 2017 7:09pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I wonder if the Republicans are going to be as vocal and blocking ws they have been the ladt 8 years ....politicians....ufff. On the rest its just a flat track...
i hope he does well. but with unemployment a 4.x% and the markets at all time highs. the odds are it will end soon. budget wise, future spending wise. that plan was released in dec. it was a add of near a trillion $ over 8 years gop forecast estimate. we all know these estimates are bs.. they tend to be much higher later.
if he is not impeached or jailed, he will have exceeded my expectations. no doubt some orgies or sex scandles are in the works. odds are putin has a video of him with 15yr olds.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #147,417
  • Feb 1, 2017 7:24pm Feb 1, 2017 7:24pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} No worries. I was just taking your post to make a general point. I saw your calls before I don't think you were lost in the fibs etc. I had only 10mins to wrap that series of posts before the FED....but you got the point. sisse {quote} I refrain to give a final technical opinion of the fiscal budget until we get all details. I he walks the talk 100℅ my estimate is a bit higher. I wonder if the Republicans are going to be as vocal and blocking ws they have been the ladt 8 years ....politicians....ufff. On the rest its just a flat track...
if the u.s. doesn't enter WW3 during his tender, i will call it a win. well above my expectations.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #147,418
  • Feb 1, 2017 9:06pm Feb 1, 2017 9:06pm
remember the Alamo, is Trump really going into Mexico with troops? no surprise if he said/says it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #147,419
  • Feb 1, 2017 9:22pm Feb 1, 2017 9:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
remember the Alamo, is Trump really going into Mexico with troops? no surprise if he said/says it.
I have traveled a bit in Mexico and lots of Mexicans told me they would love for Mexico to be a part of the US. Mexico is a paragon of official corruption, oligarchic inequality, etc. 2,500 people own >50% of the nation's wealth, in a country of 120MM souls, and the bottom 50% have a net worth of <$100.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #147,420
  • Feb 1, 2017 11:04pm Feb 1, 2017 11:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
remember the Alamo, is Trump really going into Mexico with troops? no surprise if he said/says it.
I'd wager more like 50:1 Iran over Mexico....and sooner than later....place your bets, >$100 crude is just the medicine the dying fossilfuel economy needs.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
18 traders viewing now