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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,381
  • Feb 1, 2017 8:31am Feb 1, 2017 8:31am
Quoting suntan
{quote} Is it not 990 x 3 per pip = 2970 Risk is 180x 3 = 540 Apologies edited my original workings above.
500/180=2.77
Round to 3 for the example.
Take 1 off every tp.
Add 'em up.
990.
That's all I did anyway. But you are right about 540. No rounding in the real world.
  • #147,382
  • Feb 1, 2017 8:32am Feb 1, 2017 8:32am
Quoting suntan
{quote} Is it not 990 x 3 per pip = 2970 Risk is 180x 3 = 540 Apologies edited my original workings above.
No still it is $990 as you take first position off at TP1 and second at TP2 and final position at TP3

So first position gives you $190, second gives you $340 and third one gives you $460, total $990 in all
  • #147,383
  • Feb 1, 2017 8:38am Feb 1, 2017 8:38am
(990/540) * 100 = 183% roi
  • #147,384
  • Feb 1, 2017 8:44am Feb 1, 2017 8:44am
Right. The no rounding math looks like this to me:
500/180=2.77/pip
Max RR 500:910.8, 1:1.82
Taking .92 off at each tp (33% of position) gives you
ROI 182%

I would take this trade but only with pretty strong conviction that I had direction and timing on my side. It's the entry at 1.0800 that I think could be better and would improve all those numbers. 1.084+ would be better on all accounts.
  • #147,385
  • Feb 1, 2017 8:45am Feb 1, 2017 8:45am
Sure so for 6a:

--> For a strictly r:r max ratio calculations (not about size partial or positions just a one direct trade) Entry 1.0800.

  1. Your natural stop =1.0980: You are risking 180 ticks (1.098x - 1.080x)
  2. You max reward = TP = 460 ticks (1.08 - 1.034x)
  3. Your max potential around 1 : 2.5 in a direct trade without any management (this is not realistic goal at all just a reference for decision making)


For 6b:

  1. Your natural stop =1.0980: You are risking 180 ticks x 3 = 540 ticks
  2. You max reward = TP1= 190 ticks (1.0800x - 1.061x) + TP2 = 340 tick (1.08 - 1.046) + TP3 = 460 ticks (1.08 - 1.034x) = 990
  3. You max ROI is roughly %200 on risk.


So now you have --> Your capital risk -> macro direction defined -> Short term map defined -> Your max risk -> Your position size --> Proper leverage and max capital risk positioning -> Max reward.

Here are 2 key points.

 

  1. Despite TA is screaming for a position or FA Trump in a Tweet decide to dissolve the FED next week or whatever IF THE RANGE and R:R is not WIDE enough or is FAR from your risk comfort zone you CAN PASS the trade ... You shouldn't care even if you have the Holy Grail itself or the whole FF board think you are bad trader because you skip a trade ... DONT TRADE if the risk reward is not wide enough ...which lead to the second tip (that I think is affecting you)
  2. DON'T GET MARRIED to a position or side neither FA or TA wise. Risk is the only factor that override all the other factors in trading.

Despite of what you hear around the trading boards.

 

  1. Money is in knowing when to to get out when you are WRONG not in all those flawless winner entries.
  2. You can spot good traders from bad traders not on their good calls but in HOW FAST they adapt and shift when they are WRONG. This is probably the hardest thing to master in trading.


Now with that in mind we are going to move to the next final points. Basic Timing.

You know that you are tracking macro swings and those come from major Fundamental flows for direction. Not going to go deeper in this as the point is to get back in synch and not dig deeper in FA but let take a quick glance at the basics:

Question 7: How many times since December 14 have you change your mis or short term map (be honest)? include those 'peak' at small Tfs, those chart fitting, trigger fitting, countertrade attempts, etc?

7.B How many times in the last month when price broke higher towards the 1,08xx handle were made from real movers and shakers or normal TA flows and how many have been made by tweets in the middle of nowhere ?

7.C Today is the FED? can you spot the basic principle for timing and potentially changing or breaking a map ( I am bastardising this topic but this last few weeks have been a easy case).

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,386
  • Edited 9:58am Feb 1, 2017 9:10am | Edited 9:58am
7 I've been better at this lately but staring at charts and 2nd guessing everything from FA/TA to what's driving price to Newton's basic laws of physics for feks sake has been a habit of mine. One I am trying, with at least a modicum of success, to break. I have moved my flip around a bit but otherwise have stayed within a relatively consistent framework.

7B this has been a tough area for me. I think I have done myself a disservice perhaps by trying to incorporate things I don't know all that well yet into my analysis (yields, carry trade, etc) and this has made me question whether it's a tweet thing, a short lived spike here and there or a real shift to be taken into the big picture. Guy who taught me to fish said the strongest knot you can tie is the one you know. I need to remember that more often.

7C If FED beats the caution drum hard today I could see that being a short term game changer warranting a visit to the 9's. Otherwise my feeling is we will print a short term high today on a daily wick. A mention of 3 hikes would help that happen. Hike today and I'll fall in love with an older woman. Not expected. At least the hike part isn't.

Timing: It's now. This fed meeting will determine how the short term map needs to be drawn (changed or not changed.) It will provideA) an opportunity for a short entry with proper risk reward that I'll take. Or B) no entry because rr is not wide enough so back off and wait til rr is right.Or C) a st game changer and a new st map.
  • #147,387
  • Feb 1, 2017 11:10am Feb 1, 2017 11:10am
Quoting USD-Bear
shorts UK100 took some yesterday, hope they hold, no risk anymore UK100 H1: Picture0008.png;2143402 {image}
closed today @ 7100 awaiting BOE tomorrow
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #147,388
  • Feb 1, 2017 11:45am Feb 1, 2017 11:45am
Now that I am off mobile and back at a chart, and soaking in the discussion:
The trade I'd like to take is this one-
Short @1.083, stop @1.098, tp1 @1.062, tp2 @1.034, target @1.017.

RR- 150 pips risk at $3each so 450:1360 or 1:3
ROI- 302%

If I dont get it, no trades for me today.
And with that I'll thank sisse for the help, everyone for their patience and stop hogging the thread as of right now. GL today all.
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  • #147,389
  • Feb 1, 2017 11:52am Feb 1, 2017 11:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the the smaller dt bottom break.. i can see a bounce to 1087 or 1114 (on larger) as likely chart wise. the smaller one usually would happen b4 0334. the larger before 0.931x.. so to avoid a draw down, i am not trying to long or short. i may long slightly above 0334 with a stop to close any drop below 0334. with 1.108 as a target. meanwhile all sissy says from the fudis point are valid.
eu getting close to tp time. a possible short sometime after 1087. so far a decent year. 3 or 4 small s/o and 5 decent runs. 270 pips higher makes my year. around 0963 it may get tough.. looking to short after 1087 and target 1.0334 or more. later. peace out..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #147,390
  • Feb 1, 2017 11:56am Feb 1, 2017 11:56am
All done until the FED. Upbeat markets after the news and we are set for the FED....

sisse


Quoting goosebone
7 I've been better at this lately but staring at charts and 2nd guessing everything from FA/TA to what's driving price to Newton's basic laws of physics for feks sake has been a habit of mine. One I am trying, with at least a modicum of success, to b...
--> Good son now we have clear that nothing hasn't changed yet in the macro FA or even in the short term range in play.

So now you have --> Your capital risk -> macro direction defined -> Short term map defined -> Your max risk -> Your position size --> Proper leverage and max capital risk positioning -> Max reward -> Same outlook FA and TA with a clear Timing area

--> Now lets start putting things in perspective before wrap up quickly the technicalities:

--> Let me give you a tip and hint that you (and quite a few) seem to be missing swing doesn't mean having blindly wide stops for the sake of it. If your stops are so far and the range you are playing are so wide either you are being way too conservative with Stops or you are WRONG in your direction.

What I mean is if you give me your 1.098x stop right now with price around 1.074x for entry in the current circumstances I would not never ever consider taking a trade. You are very out of range, too scare or sitting in the wrong side of the direction.... I notice in the last few posts people with trades way out of range in terms of stops.

We are not going for details in specific details in each but watch-out as this both are equally true:

-> Don't miss the forest for the trees ...but neither
--> Getting crush on to a tree because you are just looking at the forest from afar ...

The second thing I notice in your reply about the technicalities to enter the trade is you seem (I maybe wrong in this one) to be overanalysing the trigger. Lets me ask you a couple of question before we put the final charts to zoom in on this:

Question 8: You chose a Stochastic (the exact indicator is irrelevant as long as its a common oscillator) from Iteration 19. Can you tell me if that has triggered an entry short yet?

8b. For the second trigger you mentioned Fibs are too relative etc? May I ask you why you said that for this particular exercise trigger? You have the range? why you are trying to draw more fibs than there are?

8c. Price triggers we had 2 examples back in iteration 19. A pure and simple rejection and a momentum play. The latter obviously hasn't been trigger but what about a simple rejection? do we have one of those since Dec?

....lets try to move fast as clock is ticking for the FED...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,391
  • Feb 1, 2017 12:00pm Feb 1, 2017 12:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} eu getting close to tp time. a possible short sometime after 1087. so far a decent year. 3 or 4 small s/o and 5 decent runs. 270 pips higher makes my year. around 0963 it may get tough.. looking to short after 1087 and target 1.0334 or more.
1.087x will be difficult to crack and we'll need a strong hand from FED or rather a Tweet from Trump. Tomorrow we have Brexit Article 50 and BOE and obviously NFP. Only Trump is pulling Dollar short term.

FED will trigger the first bullet today ...GL ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,392
  • Feb 1, 2017 12:04pm Feb 1, 2017 12:04pm
I have been silently reading and grasping things .... And didn't jump and made the thread crowded
For Q8. I have an answer because... duringe xhaustion leg only big money spots the change in trend whether it's short/mid/long term. Retailers don't even gets the smell .... Nothing is triggered but in the background the food is already cooked and ready to serve ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,393
  • Feb 1, 2017 12:08pm Feb 1, 2017 12:08pm
Quoting sisse
All done until the FED. Upbeat markets after the news and we are set for the FED.... sisse {quote} --> Good son now we have clear that nothing hasn't changed yet in the macro FA or even in the short term range in play. So now you have --> Your capital risk -> macro direction defined -> Short term map defined -> Your max risk -> Your position size --> Proper leverage and max capital risk positioning -> Max reward -> Same outlook FA and TA with a clear Timing area --> Now lets start putting things in perspective before wrap up quickly the technicalities:...
Fibs..working on the rest..
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  • #147,394
  • Feb 1, 2017 12:08pm Feb 1, 2017 12:08pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1.087x will be difficult to crack and we'll need a strong hand from FED or rather a Tweet from Trump. Tomorrow we have Brexit Article 50 and BOE and obviously NFP. Only Trump is pulling Dollar short term. FED will trigger the first bullet today ...GL ... sisse
i don't know what they will do or not. chart wise, its written to what i will look for. wrong at times, right at others. it keeps the lights on and the beer coming. chart wise 1087 is coming. what day and time, i dont have a clue. someone doing gann input is welcome.
1087 makes my year money wise. risking less after that, till next year. mostly trading with pendings and a small pip risk this year.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #147,395
  • Feb 1, 2017 12:10pm Feb 1, 2017 12:10pm
All indicators are pointing a healthy uptrend ... All fibo levels are pierced
..
I think we are again in the same situation as we were in aug2016 ... But this time it is the last or 2nd last leg of the midterm trend ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,396
  • Feb 1, 2017 12:19pm Feb 1, 2017 12:19pm
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  • #147,397
  • Feb 1, 2017 12:19pm Feb 1, 2017 12:19pm
Just put in a small post now before FED .

Will try to play the FED with Sell stop 1.0765 if 1.0775 is touched 25 pips SL and a second sell stop 1.0860 if 1.0870 is touched 25 pips SL. All is countertrend on 4H tf.

I Expect hawkish FED.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,398
  • Feb 1, 2017 12:23pm Feb 1, 2017 12:23pm
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  • #147,399
  • Feb 1, 2017 12:25pm Feb 1, 2017 12:25pm
Quoting Earleone
Just put in a small post now before FED . Will try to play the FED with Sell stop 1.0765 if 1.0775 is touched 25 pips SL and a second sell stop 1.0860 if 1.0870 is touched 25 pips SL. All is countertrend on 4H tf. I Expect hawkish FED. {image}
I expect an inline fed which ultimately turns the expectations of March rate hike ... And triggering the RMT mode on ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,400
  • Feb 1, 2017 12:31pm Feb 1, 2017 12:31pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1.087x will be difficult to crack and we'll need a strong hand from FED or rather a Tweet from Trump. Tomorrow we have Brexit Article 50 and BOE and obviously NFP. Only Trump is pulling Dollar short term. FED will trigger the first bullet today ...GL ... sisse
i am not sure if the fed has a clue. its hard to make policy when at the drop of a tweet, 100 thousand u.s. workers could be looking for a job. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...nday/95298168/
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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