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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #28,681
  • Jan 25, 2017 8:58am Jan 25, 2017 8:58am
I wonder if DAX could exceed 2015 highs. I wasn't up to date back then and don't know what was the mover, can anyone brief me? As for Trump, his policies are bullish for market, without and bigger unexpected problems it won't change. If his ruling is harmful for economy we could get a bubble but it wont pop this year. On european side we have german elections, with all the immigrant crisis that is going on this is a wild card.
  • #28,682
  • Jan 25, 2017 9:13am Jan 25, 2017 9:13am
For Market Profile /ES traders - levels, thoughts, etc... good stuff for learning IMO.

https://www.shadowtrader.net/categor...etperspective/

https://spxtrade.wordpress.com/

There are others resources, offcourse, like FT71 and his free prep video.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #28,683
  • Jan 25, 2017 9:14am Jan 25, 2017 9:14am
Quoting StrayDog
For Market Profile /ES traders - levels, thoughts, etc... good stuff for learning IMO. https://www.shadowtrader.net/categor...etperspective/ https://spxtrade.wordpress.com/ There are others resources, offcourse, like FT71 and his free prep video.
Thank you StrayDog very useful
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #28,684
  • Jan 25, 2017 9:20am Jan 25, 2017 9:20am
Quoting rk00
I wonder if DAX could exceed 2015 highs. I wasn't up to date back then and don't know what was the mover, can anyone brief me? As for Trump, his policies are bullish for market, without and bigger unexpected problems it won't change. If his ruling is harmful for economy we could get a bubble but it wont pop this year. On european side we have german elections, with all the immigrant crisis that is going on this is a wild card.
I dont remember the driver of DAX in 2015 to answer your question, but one think I want to say is that by definition when the market is going up and we agree that the driver is Trumprally it is because we expect his policies to be bullish for the market. The question always is how much? What has been priced in already? Additionally, we also need to understand that we are trading at this moment best case scenarios, while the market usually falls on unexpected events that can derail the bullish sentiment which is something we dont know a priori. Bottomline is that it is very hard to predict already direction based on current sentiment because if I was thinking to buy this market I would always ask how much room is there left to the upside?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #28,685
  • Jan 25, 2017 9:35am Jan 25, 2017 9:35am
GOLD Long @ 1197.1
T1 +11 points
1 lot to go

Target 1200 again???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #28,686
  • Jan 25, 2017 9:49am Jan 25, 2017 9:49am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I dont remember the driver of DAX in 2015 to answer your question, but one think I want to say is that by definition when the market is going up and we agree that the driver is Trumprally it is because we expect his policies to be bullish for the market. The question always is how much? What has been priced in already? Additionally, we also need to understand that we are trading at this moment best case scenarios, while the market usually falls on unexpected events that can derail the bullish sentiment which is something we dont know a priori....
Equities are expected to gain each year. Long term they are in permament uptrend unless something big happens, like 2008 crisis. You can count 2015 and 1016 as minor pullback so unless there is something unexpected from Trump, this shit could skyrocket. At least in US. Europe is another question but IMO brexit won't happen. Also it's always a question of how deep could it fall not how much room is to the upside. Equities behave different than currencies.
  • #28,687
  • Jan 25, 2017 10:10am Jan 25, 2017 10:10am
Quoting rk00
{quote} Equities are expected to gain each year. Long term they are in permament uptrend unless something big happens, like 2008 crisis. You can count 2015 and 1016 as minor pullback so unless there is something unexpected from Trump, this shit could skyrocket. At least in US. Europe is another question but IMO brexit won't happen. Also it's always a question of how deep could it fall not how much room is to the upside. Equities behave different than currencies.
I understand what you say which is that every drop is a buying opportunity. The explanation you provide is exactly what everyone is thinking right now but not the way everyone should be thinking. And I am applying it specifically to this market. First of all, equities are not expected to gain every year but over time and that is in comparison to the risk-free rate. So if the risk free rate is zero what do we expect equities to do? Secondly, there is a fair value for equities and their value of a stock is rising as the company is growing, etc. Of course we have situations of bubbles where valuations are all over the place. Third, the market since 2008 has been on very dangerous drugs fueled by cheap money and all economists agree that unless someone puts on the brakes somewhere this is going to end badly. There are a lot of respected individuals to name one of the top of my head El-Arian that share this thought. But because the CBs are buying the market there is an artificial augmentation of prices. More recently I read the SNB holds a 130b USD portfolio of equities and is the largest shareholder of FB if I am not mistaken after Zuckerberg himself. Finally, what I was trying to say about the downside is that we cannot speculate on the downside because by definition we dont know what can happen in the future or what negative events can impact the markets (that's why have Black Swans most applied to negative events).
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #28,688
  • Jan 25, 2017 10:24am Jan 25, 2017 10:24am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Why do you think that the CBs bought the market today?
You can easily tell when you monitor international indexes. When they buy the gains hold and climb without a pullback and usually add more gains after previous gains to take out all short positions. Usually Indexes in Asia will climb first also. Taiwan and Japanese indexes are a clue. The DAX will usually double the gains or losses percentage wise as what the DOW will in gains or losses. The DAX can actually be a good indicator as to which way the DOW will head from what I have observed.
  • #28,689
  • Jan 25, 2017 10:25am Jan 25, 2017 10:25am
hi, some shorts
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The only constant is change
  • #28,690
  • Jan 25, 2017 10:28am Jan 25, 2017 10:28am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} You can easily tell when you monitor international indexes. When they buy the gains hold and climb without a pullback and usually add more gains after previous gains to take out all short positions. Usually Indexes in Asia will climb first also. Taiwan and Japanese indexes are a clue. The DAX will usually double the gains or losses percentage wise as what the DOW will in gains or losses. The DAX can actually be a good indicator as to which way the DOW will head from what I have observed.
Good points, thanks for the observation
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #28,691
  • Jan 25, 2017 10:36am Jan 25, 2017 10:36am
Sl hit
The only constant is change
  • #28,692
  • Jan 25, 2017 10:39am Jan 25, 2017 10:39am
shorts again
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The only constant is change
  • #28,693
  • Edited 11:07am Jan 25, 2017 10:40am | Edited 11:07am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
GOLD Long @ 1197.1 T1 +11 points 1 lot to go Target 1200 again??? {image}
There goes the Gold. +20p locked in last lot
Back to 1200

+30 locked in.
FLAT +30 p
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #28,694
  • Jan 25, 2017 1:19pm Jan 25, 2017 1:19pm
Quoting littspaniard
shorts again {image}
Wrong trader today, (5* -20) + (5 * -20) = -200 Points.

See you tomorrow
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The only constant is change
  • #28,695
  • Jan 25, 2017 1:53pm Jan 25, 2017 1:53pm
I would have gone with The trend But couldn't find a Place To enter long.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #28,696
  • Jan 25, 2017 10:51pm Jan 25, 2017 10:51pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} Good points, thanks for the observation
Probably crack 12,000 for DAX this week. Let's see if correction starts the week after next.

1st quarter futures expire 3rd week of March which probably means that a high will be hit within the first couple of months and then some sort of correction or pullback before 1st quarter futures expire in March. My guess is correction takes place after Chinese New Years break unless we really are in Bull mode and finish first quarter up with new highs in place.

DOW will most likely add more today to try and Lee the numbers over 20,000. Now Nikkei is next to take out that magic 20000 number as well for their Index.
  • #28,697
  • Jan 26, 2017 1:46am Jan 26, 2017 1:46am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Probably crack 12,000 for DAX this week. Let's see if correction starts the week after next. 1st quarter futures expire 3rd week of March which probably means that a high will be hit within the first couple of months and then some sort of correction or pullback before 1st quarter futures expire in March. My guess is correction takes place after Chinese New Years break unless we really are in Bull mode and finish first quarter up with new highs in place. DOW will most likely add more today to try and Lee the numbers over 20,000. Now Nikkei...
Usuallly around a BRN There is a Lot of fight. TWT.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #28,698
  • Jan 26, 2017 1:57am Jan 26, 2017 1:57am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Probably crack 12,000 for DAX this week. Let's see if correction starts the week after next. 1st quarter futures expire 3rd week of March which probably means that a high will be hit within the first couple of months and then some sort of correction or pullback before 1st quarter futures expire in March. My guess is correction takes place after Chinese New Years break unless we really are in Bull mode and finish first quarter up with new highs in place. DOW will most likely add more today to try and Lee the numbers over 20,000. Now Nikkei...
Very possible scenarios and obviously we are not that far from these levels both in DAX and Nikkei. What I am seen and have seen all my years of trading is that, at least the European markets, do not have a brain of their own. They follow the US market, whatever this means futures or cash. Which means that European traders might make a push but ultimately if this is not supported by the US market it will fail. There is a lot of uncertainty in Europe much more than US in reality and sooner than later fundamentals will catch up. From an investment perspective, and I know this is the wrong crowd since this is a thread about intraday tactics, I just cannot buy into this market.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #28,699
  • Jan 26, 2017 2:44am Jan 26, 2017 2:44am
Quoting manosk
... What I am seen and have seen all my years of trading is that, at least the European markets, do not have a brain of their own. ...
Yes, most of the time. They are just a lil' jail bitchez to the mighty SnP.

Rare times when they are NOT following SnP is some crisis like Ukraine, elections, or Draghi, who made that enourmous DAX rally in the begining of 2015.
Somebody asked before what was that. Well that was Draghi anouncing EU QE. After that, it all retraced to the S.O.C. (scene of the crime) level.

Waiting for the first real pullback...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #28,700
  • Edited 4:04am Jan 26, 2017 2:48am | Edited 4:04am
DAX Short @ 864. (counter scalp)
T1+11p x 2 lot
1 lot to go
FLAT -10 last lot

DAX opened as Non Prof Gap. So it will likely (try to) close the Y GAP.
Attached Image
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
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