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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #63,701
  • Jan 23, 2017 11:32am Jan 23, 2017 11:32am
Quoting pohchuan
Trump is running the country like his business empire..... Any tweet from him saying USD is too strong, will send the currency into freefall
One , two , three times and NO more , mate.
  • #63,702
  • Jan 23, 2017 2:17pm Jan 23, 2017 2:17pm
It's tempting to buy USD/JPY at curr levels of 113 with stops of up to 100 and target at or just below 120 but I'm already heavily short the Yen on the GBP/JPY front so just sitting on my hands, watching. GBP is done pushing the GBP/JPY up for the day, now looking for USD/JPY to do its magic on the JPY crosses
  • #63,703
  • Jan 23, 2017 2:44pm Jan 23, 2017 2:44pm
Quoting pohchuan
Trump is running the country like his business empire..... Any tweet from him saying USD is too strong, will send the currency into freefall
Pretty much so lol.. That should be illegal though. Imagine how much money his friends would make off his tweets
  • #63,704
  • Jan 23, 2017 4:36pm Jan 23, 2017 4:36pm
The new administration is trying to talk the USD down, but the reality is Fed will most likely raise the interest rate 2 or 3 times this year.
  • #63,705
  • Jan 23, 2017 5:37pm Jan 23, 2017 5:37pm
Quoting BaseTrade
The new administration is trying to talk the USD down, but the reality is Fed will most likely raise the interest rate 2 or 3 times this year.
I don't think rate hikes are going to move the dollar higher, not in the long run anyway. Historically the dollar index has always fallen during a rate hike cycle. Of course it may be different this time, nothing is ever 100% certain in FX.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #63,706
  • Jan 23, 2017 5:46pm Jan 23, 2017 5:46pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Pretty much so lol.. That should be illegal though. Imagine how much money his friends would make off his tweets
Not just that : one never knows how MM will interpret and respond to his tweets. DT is too old to change just because he got new job...
  • #63,707
  • Jan 23, 2017 7:15pm Jan 23, 2017 7:15pm
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} I don't think rate hikes are going to move the dollar higher, not in the long run anyway. Historically the dollar index has always fallen during a rate hike cycle. Of course it may be different this time, nothing is ever 100% certain in FX.
Nothing is 100% including the dollar index falling during every rate hike cycle - historically. Check your charts, for instance late 90's.
  • #63,708
  • Jan 23, 2017 9:47pm Jan 23, 2017 9:47pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Nothing is 100% including the dollar index falling during every rate hike cycle - historically. Check your charts, for instance late 90's.
I stand corrected, but I'd like to point out that it was the only period in which the DXY rose as the fed started to tighten. It probably had more to do with the Clinton administration's budget surplus (1998 - 2001) than fed funds rate per se. In the last 48 years, those were the only 3 years in which the US govt enjoyed a budget surplus. With the current fiscal deficit at a whopping 500b, its safe to say that we will not see a budget surplus anytime soon.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #63,709
  • Jan 23, 2017 10:01pm Jan 23, 2017 10:01pm
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} I stand corrected, but I'd like to point out that it was the only period in which the DXY rose as the fed started to tighten. It probably had more to do with the Clinton administration's budget surplus (1998 - 2001) than fed funds rate per se. In the last 48 years, those were the only 3 years in which the US govt enjoyed a budget surplus. With the current fiscal deficit at a whopping 500b, its safe to say that we will not see a budget surplus anytime soon.
Believe what you want. I prefer trading to politics (either party).

But long term debt not yearly surpluses/deficits are what really matter and nobody has done anything about it for generations.
  • #63,710
  • Jan 24, 2017 3:28am Jan 24, 2017 3:28am
Bull heading north toward 113.6xx...
  • #63,711
  • Jan 24, 2017 4:57am Jan 24, 2017 4:57am
Showing signs of a base..

Having tested into the mid 112.00's again and held around the lows seen last week, we are showing some tentative signs of basing out!
  • #63,712
  • Jan 24, 2017 5:34am Jan 24, 2017 5:34am
Quoting pohchuan
Bull heading north toward 113.6xx...
Very possible , mate . but a drop below 113.20 will signal a reversal downwards imho...
  • #63,713
  • Jan 24, 2017 9:41am Jan 24, 2017 9:41am
Quoting F.g
{quote} Very possible , mate . but a drop below 113.20 will signal a reversal downwards imho...
112.5 is the barrier
Between 113.2 and 112.5 is a buy level targeted to the 118 area.
Forcemeat can not be unrolled back...
  • #63,714
  • Edited 11:41am Jan 24, 2017 9:56am | Edited 11:41am
Quoting catroot
{quote} 112.5 is the barrier Between 113.2 and 112.5 is a buy level targeted to the 118 area.
That 116.## - 118.## level should be good for building shorts targeting sub 110, doubt that it will reach so high though, if it cracks 117 I would be mighty surprised. I won't long here either.
  • #63,715
  • Jan 24, 2017 10:52am Jan 24, 2017 10:52am
it is time to go long
  • #63,716
  • Jan 24, 2017 11:16am Jan 24, 2017 11:16am
Quoting F.g
{quote} Very possible , mate . but a drop below 113.20 will signal a reversal downwards imho...
The "reversal" didn't last... exhausted at 112.70 . . . Now up at 113.65

No opinion - no position...
  • #63,717
  • Jan 24, 2017 12:16pm Jan 24, 2017 12:16pm
is it the right time for all crossing jpy???
  • #63,718
  • Jan 24, 2017 12:24pm Jan 24, 2017 12:24pm
Quoting new_member
is it the right time for all crossing jpy???
whose local time is right? right now mine is 7:22pm. why are you asking that?
  • #63,719
  • Jan 24, 2017 2:48pm Jan 24, 2017 2:48pm
We should see 116-118 again. If DOW wants 20,000 then they need a strong Dollar as well and with a strong Dollar that YEN should drop. Nikkei will want to run with the DOW and for the Nikkei to run YEN would need to drop as well
  • #63,720
  • Jan 24, 2017 5:22pm Jan 24, 2017 5:22pm
Quoting stylinex
We should see 116-118 again. If DOW wants 20,000 then they need a strong Dollar as well and with a strong Dollar that YEN should drop. Nikkei will want to run with the DOW and for the Nikkei to run YEN would need to drop as well

so with that said would it be better to see if we get a dip and then go long or jump in now?...just curious...
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