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  • #147,001
  • Jan 15, 2017 3:40pm Jan 15, 2017 3:40pm
Quoting sisse
Brexit chapter 2 triggered this weekend. May pre announcing hard brexit. Watch out capitulation in Sterling* and UK equities change of outlook. sisse
Tic tac London Monday. New Zealand has some floaters in, lets see for tic tac.
  • #147,002
  • Jan 15, 2017 4:09pm Jan 15, 2017 4:09pm
That was nice gap down :-).. Was short and the price action on Friday almost got me out of the position...
  • #147,003
  • Jan 15, 2017 4:20pm Jan 15, 2017 4:20pm
Quoting sisse
Brexit chapter 2 triggered this weekend. May pre announcing hard brexit. Watch out capitulation in Sterling* and UK equities change of outlook. sisse
A small bounce in cable, as supportive comments from Trump are released (he gave an exclusive interview to leading Brexiteer, Michael Gove - who is a journalist at the London Times), saying Brexit will be "great" and inferring that a UK-US trade deal, that is good for both sides, will be swift.
  • #147,004
  • Jan 15, 2017 5:38pm Jan 15, 2017 5:38pm
Quoting sisse
Brexit chapter 2 triggered this weekend. May pre announcing hard brexit. Watch out capitulation in Sterling* and UK equities change of outlook. sisse
Sisse, I have one question about your short term outlook in Euro.

Few days ago, you changed this outlook from sell to neutral for TA reason alone. I have understand that it was because of a potential reverso in play for the short term. Later, it seems you dropped this idea of a reverso but you did not change the outlook back to sell. I don't understand why as FA seems very clear.

Also, you have changed your short term outlook in Sterling from sell to agressive sell because May triggering Art.50 may be in play for the upcoming days (with also hard brexit in play). I am wondering why it has not also triggered change in the short term outlook in Euro.

Many thanks for your insight.
  • #147,005
  • Edited Jan 16, 2017 7:03am Jan 15, 2017 9:49pm | Edited Jan 16, 2017 7:03am
I am thinking US inauguration day may offer a clue for what's to come in the near future in the bond market and USD (equities too, naturally). May be wrong to think that very day will offer any real volatility but I'll be watching the days/week after to see if there's a clue there. I'm drawing my map with this in mind, and while the affects on treasuries I'm considering may not come right on the 20th, I've mapped it that way anyway. Also it may be off base to be combining treasury yields direction with ecb reaction in one map but it seems like both are gauges for picking at least a short term eu path.

Either way, in my endless quest to know just how dangerous a little bit of knowledge can be, here goes--

In order of likelihood:
A) Yields on aimless, slightly southward drift into and through Friday, finding foot after the inauguration news cycle. ECB neutral with little talk, no change to purchase schedule.
B) Yields move more sharply downward especially on Friday. ECB is more hawkish than data would suggest they should be. (Doubling down that QE will see an end with or without all targets met, and the timing of that is less data driven than it's ever been)
C) Lifting off from the inauguration stage, Trump rides treasury yields up into orbit on a blazing white stallion named Stimulus Maximus. ECB is dovish. Maybe even unanimous in their dovespeak.

C*) Pound swan dives and carries down Euro for the ride on hard brexit fear, is a possibility too I suppose, but honestly brexit affect on Euro is something I don't grasp well so not sure on that one at all.

I'm admittedly over my head with this as usual.
I may be missing the mark on current expectations for ECB as well as placing too much weight on a short out move in yields.
Anyone wants to straighten me out, it's always appreciated. That's why I post early, so hopefully I'll know my ass from my elbow by crunchtime.
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  • #147,006
  • Jan 16, 2017 3:20am Jan 16, 2017 3:20am
this time speculators will show there real power ... and will make a benchmark what actually speculation means .... 12 hr before hard brexit... now speculation after 12 hrs whats next i was just joking ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,007
  • Jan 16, 2017 5:07am Jan 16, 2017 5:07am
A rather soft European session after the initial jerk reaction on the FX board. Markets in Europe walking in eggshells. Sterling one more time put one foot into the abyss balancing on air until tomorrow and especially until BOE. UK equities still holding but a further push of 5 / 10% devaluation in the pound will mainly bring inflation alone rather than any impact on the short term balance sheets in large export oriented companies.

Like always artificially pumping the economy just by devaluation is ok as short term measure to correct imbalances but it would never ever be a proper economic policy target as it destroy the inner structures of the economy, wipe out competitiveness and bring inflation to destroy real wages ....

Whatever the case we have ECB week with populism and political BS on centre stage from the UK talking heads before ....expecting even more moving and shakers in the FX front in the next few sessions.

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Sisse, I have one question about your short term outlook in Euro. Few days ago, you changed this outlook from sell to neutral for TA reason ....
You are mixing up comments and posts without following up the conversation.

Let me suggest you something. If you want to follow up a conversation with me or in the thread in general you need to ask/engage/post directly your view in a conversation. Otherwise you are picking up pieces from different topics and chats without any context.

I keep Euro short term outlooks pretty much updated to keep the conversation in thread in a natural flow. On the rest we primarily discuss depending on discussions, trades or comments.

I don't come here an I post every time NZD or APPL or any other change outlook to etc etc. Sure I try to keep most of the mid and long term in the major markets up to date to help some get awareness of what markets are doing as a whole but I don't have time to send a personalise update every time something change

So if you want to keep a conversation flow open try to engage directly so its easy for you to follow.


Try to get in synch:

-> We are in mid term aggressive sell sitting in imminent break down alerts for over 5 weeks until the ECB at least

Quoting sisse
.....and finally the most important one from across the FX board in Euro for todays close we are locking levels all the way down to the 1.08xx handle but more importantly:

--> Changing mid term outlook in the Euro from sell to aggressive sell
-> Short term. FOMC/NFP flow flopped and we cleared all short term positions changing short term outlook to neutral cause TA reasons alone till ECB.

Quoting sisse
Very advanced trading environment. Without nothing on the FA side on the upcoming days and for strictly TA reasons I will qualify this as short term 'TA neutral' outlook in both until the respective handles are cleared ....
--> Reverso played to 1.066x and was cleared and killed live after the run on stops as it didn't follow thought.

Quoting sisse
E..... Euro couldn't take far beyond 1.066x and that will pretty much killed the reverso play. Crumbs for crumbs in that trade...a bit of of too hyperactive trading at these levels for my taste but it is what it is sometimes ....
-> The pullback unlocked one more time tickets on sale for the mid term ride. Whether you were holding positions, adding new ones or thinking to start new was irrelevant. The point was about there were tickets for sale before ECB thats it.

Quote
More importantly Euro mid term momentum play orders activated now that we tested the highs and equally important for the 3er time in the last 5 weeks we have 'choose your poison time" as we have 'tickets available on sale' for NY. Again if you are not already in (to any side) is time to take one for the mid term


-> Now for Sterling, we changed to aggressive sell way before the weekend because the UK government set the day to announce Article 50 for tomorrow.

Quoting sisse
......important update from Sterling. We have the potential day for 'the scheduled' game changer in the UK:

--> Changing short term outlook in Sterling from sell to aggressive sell till the BOE.
-> What happened over the weekend. As usual with populist politicians, talking heads (MAY this time) went to the mass media in the typical nationalist chest-beating announcing [arrogantly and prolly for political posturing before negotiations] that she is going to leave the common markets and stop trading with Europe all together if the UK cannot just take all and don't give anything in return in a 'my way or the highway' arrogant approach and all that ....

That is a knee jerk reaction until tomorrow. Euro and no country in Europe will hold a run on risk with Europe disintegrating in chaos and going back to the early 20th century in terms of free trading. Thats a fact.

However, this was a tweet from a populist politician. Tomorrow will hear some details and more importantly for the Euro, ECB is coming. As long as bulls are holding the handle and we don't have any real confirmed news (not political posturing 'tweets') there is nothing to update in the Euro short term. Plus the trading implications of the short term outlook neutral at the current levels are null TA wise.


--> On the rest of the board you need to update short term outlooks from last week after Brexit from Gold to Yen and everything else in between with risk as benchmark in the driver seat till the ECB.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,008
  • Jan 16, 2017 5:43am Jan 16, 2017 5:43am
Quoting sisse
A rather soft European session after the initial jerk reaction on the FX board. Markets in Europe walking in eggshells. Sterling one more time put one foot into the abyss balancing on air until tomorrow and especially until BOE. UK equities still holding but a further push of 5 / 10% devaluation in the pound will mainly bring inflation alone rather than any impact on the short term balance sheets in large export oriented companies. Like always artificially pumping the economy just by devaluation is ok as short term measure to correct imbalances...
Thank you for your detailed reply, I may not have been very clear in my post.
  • #147,009
  • Jan 16, 2017 6:29am Jan 16, 2017 6:29am
Been very choppy and noisy on lower timeframes for eurusd .

We got a turn again TA with the LH on friday and the previous low taken out ( NSL ).

I will look for positions to scale in ( In the expensive tickets zone for higher tf ) at the tickets zone. Lift off 1/3 close to the downside limit line for the smaller swings and BE is locked in for each position managed to hold with SL above the high 12th january.

USDX held at the support . Target is close to 105.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,010
  • Jan 16, 2017 8:30am Jan 16, 2017 8:30am
..and that was it for the day. US on holiday and Europe on thin ice.

Tweet mode trading active for the rest of the day as there is nothing to see except political noise from the UK. Expecting noise and talking heads in a rampage until things get official in the next few hours.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,011
  • Jan 16, 2017 11:49am Jan 16, 2017 11:49am
TRY setting on probability side for another LL. Still nothing from central bank, in fact they even commented of no "counter measure" hikes to be implemented. They burned a lot of good money to throw after bad in last two months from liquid reserves, and we are still printing fresh lows. Inflation picking is not out of control, but it is pretty consistent. Just in pass two months their reserves had to hit bottom, using their "official" number and aproximating the liquid vs non liquid in it (90 bil total), it doesnt look they are gona last another year under same peace of USD and TRY flows. Last time when we got same cornering in Russia they did pull the trigger, on probability side one of hike is to be expected even though there is no rethoric for it, question is how long will they go about until the reserves are dried up.
Catalyst side we are still in same page as weeks/months ago and tech wise charts could be suggesting for another all time low, depending what happens in key areas. Plotting chart bellow. Putting all mid term and longer term macros together it looks we are gona get another all time LL before one of hike.
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  • #147,012
  • Jan 16, 2017 5:12pm Jan 16, 2017 5:12pm
Very big game changers news cooking in the background. In probably one of the noisiest day in decades, we are witnessing the disintegration of the global economy as such.

Trump going ballistic and now we have Mexico, China, Germany, the whole EU and other 2/3 of the world threatened for full protectionism wave. The UK govemrent insane in the back seat ready to commit 'harakiri' cheerleading the way back to the 19th century environment.

Things are dramatically changing around the world. All these news is 100% guarantee against markets despite the short term legs. It wont end up nicely. It never had, it never will. We are very close to trigger a spiral of out control and all like always thanks to politicians taking advantage of the circumstances.

Aggressively eyeballing to reposition in Treasuries, Dollar and Yen short and mid term. Since the US is for the first time in history the one that is going against free markets and liberal economic principle, I am rather cautiously looking for a more balance alternatives for later as the end result is always the same for those who play the protectionism card: ECONOMIC DISASTER ....

Conflict, protectionism and less free trade are at the front door. Time to start taking extreme precaution measures. I thought the whole populist, nationalistic BS was going to take longer to settle but we are going at top speed directly to a massive concrete wall.

"Forewarned is forearmed !!!"

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,013
  • Edited 1:49am Jan 17, 2017 12:43am | Edited 1:49am
Quoting sisse
Very big game changers news cooking in the background. In probably one of the noisiest day in decades, we are witnessing the disintegration of the global economy as such. Trump going ballistic and now we have Mexico, China, Germany, the whole EU and other 2/3 of the world threatened for full protectionism wave. The UK govemrent insane in the back seat ready to commit 'harakiri' cheerleading the way back to the 19th century environment. Things are dramatically changing around the world. All these news is 100% guarantee against markets despite the...
Sisse, is there a way to identify from the FA point of view how the trade protectionism impacts value of currency? In our time (with rate hikes cycle in) I would say to the upside? =) via higher inflation and inflation expectations =) higher rates. May be a stupid question - but Im trying to figure out if trump getting out of hand strengthens our FA case for short or mid term dollar of if it reverses/goes against the case.

In any case: even though I have some criticism on Germany behavior in EU. Merkel/germany (and marginally Hollande) seems to be the only sane man in the room contrary to historical tradition Hopefully shes gonna win the election (as is expected).
  • #147,014
  • Jan 17, 2017 3:33am Jan 17, 2017 3:33am
Very strong opening range in Europe triggering risk off across the board for today. Euro on the bid benefiting from the carry trade, the wipe out in the UK and German comments.

Uk overshoots in inflation as expected and that was it until the talking heads take over the board. Market in high alert watch mode today.

sisse


Quoting chester123
{quote} Sisse, is there a way to identify from the FA point of view how the trade protectionism impacts value of currency?...
Via international trade first, artificial devaluation/apreciation second and third and more importantly the heavy damage in the economy in the mid term.


Quote
In our time (with rate hikes cycle in) I would say to the upside? =) via higher inflation and inflation expectations =) higher rates. May be a stupid question - but Im trying to figure out if trump getting out of hand strengthens our FA case for short or mid term dollar of if it reverses/goes against the case.

Yes as long as Trump doesn't blow the global and US economy before ...

Quote
In any case: even though I have some criticism on Germany behavior in EU. Merkel/germany (and marginally Hollande) seems to be the only sane man in the room contrary to historical tradition Hopefully shes gonna win the election (as is expected).

Indeed ...the oxymorons of the current circumstances. The most socialist (Hollande) lefty backwards president in the develop world has become the bastion of the free world and free markets.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,015
  • Jan 17, 2017 3:40am Jan 17, 2017 3:40am
Quoting janpec1000
Short term for dollar longs forming possibly complex short term bottoming. Got some micro USD longs in on vs ZAR and EUR, actively looking (Monday mostly) for USD on long side. Both micro squeeze and flip delivered as planned/preffered so all it needs now is decent hold up to complete extended move. Also tracking GBP forming solid attempt for first short term bottom, tracking for longs next week. It failed to take out key micro highs but structurally we are in decent probabilities for another attempt. EDIT: also for those trading crosses,...
Invalidated- nice intraday squeeze was suspicious to complete leg to 670 EU / 004 USDCHF, now flipping short term view on USD to bear. Also eyes on gold
  • #147,016
  • Jan 17, 2017 4:58am Jan 17, 2017 4:58am
...and here we go. Eyes on Sterling* this morning.

UK ready to jump on the abyss alone and officalily declare the first trading war in Europe since WWII. Lots of politics involved so in will be tricky to sieve the real content with the populist BS for the daily mailers and brexiters. We already know 3/4 of the content but not the official details. Insanity in play ...

Watch-out for movers and shakers triggering macro levels.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,017
  • Jan 17, 2017 5:03am Jan 17, 2017 5:03am
Quoting sisse
...and here we go. Eyes on Sterling* this morning. UK ready to jump on the abyss alone and officalily declare the first trading war in Europe since WWII. Lots of politics involved so in will be tricky to sieve the real content with the populist BS for the daily mailers and brexiters. We already know 3/4 of the content but not the official details. Insanity in play ... Watch-out for movers and shakers triggering macro levels. sisse

Will the GPB rise or fall today?
  • #147,018
  • Jan 17, 2017 5:04am Jan 17, 2017 5:04am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Will the GPB rise or fall today?
You tell me ... je je je

Read back post for details in Sterling. Very detailed explanation in the last few pages.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,019
  • Jan 17, 2017 5:05am Jan 17, 2017 5:05am
Quoting sisse
{quote} You tell me ... je je je Read back post for details in Sterling. Very detailed explanation in the last few pages. sisse

Looks very agressive and bulish right now
  • #147,020
  • Jan 17, 2017 5:19am Jan 17, 2017 5:19am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Looks very agressive and bulish right now
Looks like an empty and very thin space trading at 35 years lows, minutes away from the biggest mover and shaker trigger for this year .....meaning we are trading extreme levels low and the board is empty for the next few minutes. Take or give 300 ticks up and down nobody is here for now ...if you are in from 1.24 is sit extremely tight if you don't just wait my 2 cents ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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