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The Really Useless Thread

  • #146,981
  • Jan 13, 2017 7:41am Jan 13, 2017 7:41am
Quoting janpec1000
shORTED EU 659 and just added 635, tight stop on lower one. UCAD Long 3130 looking for mild squeeze for shorts dollar and then lets see what it decides on top of range where to go.
Took a long, at 0630, risk todays low, Target 1.07/1.073
  • #146,982
  • Jan 13, 2017 8:59am Jan 13, 2017 8:59am
Quoting Earleone
Lets see what the news bring. I dont expect firework. But will put a sell stop 10 pips below 1.0670 if touched. And a sell limit at zig zag 1.0605 if it moves in correct direction after news and breakes 1.06 and come up again. ( Scalp entrys with 25 pips SL ) {image}
Third time in a row with your magic order =) Well done!
  • #146,983
  • Edited 12:52pm Jan 13, 2017 9:06am | Edited 12:52pm
Short term for dollar longs forming possibly complex short term bottoming. Got some micro USD longs in on vs ZAR and EUR, actively looking (Monday mostly) for USD on long side. Both micro squeeze and flip delivered as planned/preffered so all it needs now is decent hold up to complete extended move.

Also tracking GBP forming solid attempt for first short term bottom, tracking for longs next week. It failed to take out key micro highs but structurally we are in decent probabilities for another attempt.

EDIT: also for those trading crosses, AN is worth to watch for new HHs. Short and mid term play.
  • #146,984
  • Jan 13, 2017 9:17am Jan 13, 2017 9:17am
Quoting Happy_Sniper
{quote} Third time in a row with your magic order =) Well done!
Thank you It is actually interesting system when it goes wrong ( when it spikes directly against expectation and orders dont get filled ) . Every time I am right I actually loose 10 pips on my entry compared to using a limit order from the exact level. But when I am wrong it can save me 50 to 100 pips because off slippage if it avoid me from getting a fill on big spikes and I can get filled at better price by moving my not filled order if I am convinced spike go in wrong direction, still with small risk. For long term I am unsure what is most profitable. ( I think it is ) . Will try to post before red news in euro and can try to do some statistics from it after a while for orders filled at better price / Orders not filled at all etc.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #146,985
  • Jan 13, 2017 10:29am Jan 13, 2017 10:29am
Quoting sisse
That was it for the European session in an uneventful day. Eyes on US reports to close the week. Consumer confidence at 14 years highs so not expecting much even with a soft flop but just a confirmation on the same trend.... sisse
Sisse, do you see something fishy going on with the pound currently?
Is someone big buying pounds before the weekend and before May's speech?
also this rebound in AUD in the New York session - is it some kind of "risk on" related to the pound?

Thanks
  • #146,986
  • Jan 13, 2017 10:51am Jan 13, 2017 10:51am
sterling on steroids after this news

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=630698
Re-Incarnated
  • #146,987
  • Jan 13, 2017 1:16pm Jan 13, 2017 1:16pm
Quoting primejarvis
sterling on steroids after this news http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=630698
De-globalization was never ever easy and quick. In majority of cases it is followed by bear markets initially and also in majority of cases it was stoped and fliped (but takes time). So when you see news like that coming out it should not be surprise. It should be surprise if all is going smoothly. I know you havent asked about anything of this, but just to put that article in context.
  • #146,988
  • Jan 13, 2017 1:34pm Jan 13, 2017 1:34pm
Quoting primejarvis
sterling on steroids....
We barely have moved today...

@ janpec1000

...have always ended up in inflation, protectionism, wall and sadly almost always war...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #146,989
  • Jan 13, 2017 2:06pm Jan 13, 2017 2:06pm
Quoting primejarvis
sterling on steroids after this news http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=630698
the news itself is still not clear whether they can hold the process, however it is clear that the political BS is about to pick up..

I think for sterling next week is an interesting one with May & Carney speaking. I expect the risk is to the topside of GBP when Carney speaks, while the opposite with May on Tuesday.

call me a contrarian indicator, but I think a lot of the negativity is baked in for sterling and we might be up for a surprise if say we dont necessarily get the hard brexit after all.
  • #146,990
  • Jan 13, 2017 2:10pm Jan 13, 2017 2:10pm
re euro, I think we are going to test north of 1.08xx &above given how things are shaping up. US data is solid yes, but the surprises can be quick and while they are leading the recovery, US will lead the downturn as well (not in play right now). Productivity is still very low and I do not see a reason for Fed to be aggressive. Again, here I go being the contrarian in this thread, but thought I would share my view anyway.
  • #146,991
  • Jan 13, 2017 3:08pm Jan 13, 2017 3:08pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} We barely have moved today... @ janpec1000 ...have always ended up in inflation, protectionism, wall and sadly almost always war... sisse
Exactly. There is difference between a leading macro and a reactionary macro, masses usually put pattern x into y which is where the failure comes.
  • #146,992
  • Edited 7:46pm Jan 13, 2017 4:22pm | Edited 7:46pm
Well I covered a lot of ground this week. Walked 200 miles to the left and took a left. Then walked another 200 miles and took another left. Crawled 200 more miles and took a left again, barely made it the last 200 miles to right back to where I started. If you like travel follow me. If you want to get somewhere..not so much.
Good weekend everybody!
  • #146,993
  • Jan 13, 2017 5:48pm Jan 13, 2017 5:48pm
Quoting sisse
Slightly bearish close but with bulls still holding the upper hand ... not much to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all across the board... sisse
I think this still applies, maybe that's why Sisse didn't post at the weekly roll...on the other hand us10y yields seem to have found floor? as for the ecb next week it's way out of my knowledge and abilities to make any prediction...nice weekend everyone!
  • #146,994
  • Edited Jan 14, 2017 6:26am Jan 13, 2017 7:50pm | Edited Jan 14, 2017 6:26am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Thank you It is actually interesting system when it goes wrong ( when it spikes directly against expectation and orders dont get filled ) . Every time I am right I actually loose 10 pips on my entry compared to using a limit order from the exact level. But when I am wrong it can save me 50 to 100 pips because off slippage if it avoid me from getting a fill on big spikes and I can get filled at better price by moving my not filled order if I am convinced spike go in wrong direction, still with small risk. For long term I am unsure...
Â
You are basically fading the moves which is most of the times the wise thing to do anyway. You would need a way more examples to get any statistics, but I'm sure you're on the right track. With pure limit orders you're hunting the tops and bottoms, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. I find your way to enter a lot safer than a pure limit order.
  • #146,995
  • Jan 14, 2017 7:46am Jan 14, 2017 7:46am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20170114-084642.jpg Size: 302 KB
  • #146,996
  • Jan 14, 2017 8:21am Jan 14, 2017 8:21am
Quoting goosebone
Screenshot_20170114-084642.jpg;2140351 {image}
Yep its the same play, same variables same ol. Debt, rising yields, dollar shortage and strenght, asymetrical warfare. Basically copy paste EM crisis (90s) all over again. Dollar is floating in between as part of leading macro from hikes and reactionary macro that is from all the rest flows pushing into its strenght. I am still waiting when are economists going to stop using word "soft landing" and start to recognize that we are in new deep cycle. Its been 2 years already.
  • #146,997
  • Edited 9:53am Jan 15, 2017 8:19am | Edited 9:53am
Quoting SorinAQ
{quote} I think this still applies, maybe that's why Sisse didn't post at the weekly roll...on the other hand us10y yields seem to have found floor? as for the ecb next week it's way out of my knowledge and abilities to make any prediction...nice weekend everyone!
On the long equities and dollar/short treasuries trump bump side it does seem markets have at least begun a shift from expectations of tax cuts and fiscal stimulus (buy the talk) to one more cautiously waiting for action on those fronts (sell the walk/no walk?). His press conference that almost totally avoided the economy and his administration's plans for it appeared to help apply a soft brake to what has become a pretty crowded reflation trade. It seems to me it will be important for trading anything dollar connected to gauge how hard that brake is applied. I believe bonds are that gauge. I will need to get a better handle on the factors in play on the Euro side to make my map for this week's news (outside of my knowledge too, like you said, but I don't know any better place to make public my take on it and get opinions, comments and guidance than this thread, you should look at it the same! Lots of smart people here and some of the best discussions are started by noob posts I might add, not at all suggesting that's you, but it is me). I'll post a map when I get it together tonight.
  • #146,998
  • Jan 15, 2017 8:32am Jan 15, 2017 8:32am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} On the long equities and dollar/short treasuries trump bump side it does seem markets have at least begun a shift from expectations of tax cuts and fiscal stimulus (buy the talk) to one more cautiously waiting for action (sell the walk/no walk?). His press conference that almost totally avoided the economy and his administration's plans for it appeared to apply a soft brake to what has become a pretty crowded reflation trade. It seems to me it will be important for trading anything dollar connected to guage how hard that brake is applied....
We might have great timing for EU- ECB on Thursday. Looks atm that nothing significant will happen before.
PVSRA
  • #146,999
  • Jan 15, 2017 9:04am Jan 15, 2017 9:04am
dont know how much it makes sense but still

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...pt-hard-brexit
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,000
  • Edited 2:59pm Jan 15, 2017 2:38pm | Edited 2:59pm
Brexit chapter 2 triggered this weekend. May pre announcing hard brexit.
Watch out capitulation in Sterling* and UK equities change of outlook.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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