News trading discussion - continuation

Tuesday
9:00
10/1/17
NO The core consumer price index
(NO Core CPI), Norway, EURNOK
Average reaction when trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Wednesday
11:30
11/1/17
GB Industrial production
(GB Industrial Production), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Wednesday
17:30
11/1/17
US reserves of crude oil and petroleum products
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
10:30
12/1/17
SE Consumer Price Index
(SE CPI), Sweden, EURSEK
Average reaction when trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
12/1/17
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Friday
15:30
13/1/17
US Core Retail Sales
(US Core Retail Sales), USA, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Great weekend to everyone.

Hello, whats your criteria for news selection?

The Top Events/Releases for next week

1. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting
The latest ECB monetary policy decision is due on Thursday January 19th at 07:45 EST.
Bank President Draghi will hold his regular press conference 45 minutes later.
The ECB minutes from Decembers policy meeting revealed increased divisions within the Governing Council.
There was a debate over the two options to extend the bond-buying programme by 6 months at EUR80bn or EUR60bn for nine months with the latter winning out.
There were, however, members who opposed both options and there were other members who wanted a six-month extension at a lower rate.
There were some concerns that inflation would be higher than the staff projections, especially as the forecasts had not taken into account the OPEC production cuts.
The inflation debate is likely to be considerably sharper at this meeting, especially with a sharp rise in German inflation for the January data. There is a very little chance of a change in interest rates, but the press conference tone will be crucial for market reaction and internal ECB politics.
If bank President Draghi maintains a very dovish tone at the press conference, there will be a high risk of increased dissent within the council and unofficial briefings against Draghi.
2. US Presidential Inauguration
The inauguration ceremony for President-elect Trump will be held on Friday January 20th from 09:30 EST.
Inevitably, there will be huge coverage of Trumps inauguration with a particular focus on the content of his speech.
Market attention will also be very high after the January 11th press conference, when the dollar fell sharply on a lack of rhetoric surrounding any fiscal stimulus and tax cuts.
Markets will again be looking closely for any hints on policy with a particular focus on fiscal and trade policies. Even if there are no specifics, there could be a significant market reaction.
The overall tone of the speech is also likely to be important as a conciliatory speech aimed at promoting unity would tend to support equity-market sentiment, while a more combative approach would tend to erode confidence, especially as there would be expectations of major friction with Congress.
3. US Consumer Prices
The latest US CPI report is due for release on Wednesday January 18th at 08:30 EST.
The US inflation trends will continue to be a key market focus during the next few months.
The Federal Reserve is expecting a gradual increase in inflation to the 2.0% target during the course of the year. The earnings data was stronger than expected in the December employment report and there will be expectations that higher earnings will put some upward pressure on inflation.
Stronger than expected data would increase pressure for the Fed to increase interest rates at the March FOMC meeting, while a more subdued release would give the FOMC more opportunity to assess developments.
Markets will be looking for any evidence of an impact from the strong dollar, although this is more likely to show up over the next few months.
There is also the possibility that companies in the medical sector looked to raise prices before the new Administration takes office.
The latest New York Empire index and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey will be released on Tuesday and Thursday respectively.
4. UK Prime Minister May Speech
UK Prime Minister May is due to deliver a speech on Brexit on Tuesday January 17th.
The UK Brexit debate will continue to have a very important impact on UK sentiment and Sterling moves as the UK moves towards triggering Article 50 at the end of March.
Mays speech will be analysed closely for hints on the likely Brexit negotiating stance.
Markets have become fixated with the binary position of whether there will be a soft or hard Brexit. In simplistic terms, a soft exit, in which the UK maintains single market access, is seen as positive for Sterling, while a hard Brexit without single-market access is seen as potentially damaging for the economy.
The impact of the speech will depend in part on whether May can shift the debate towards a wider perspective of global trading relationships. In the very short term, suggestions of being outside the single market will tend to weaken Sterling, although a push for transitional arrangements would cushion the impact.
It is also possible that the Supreme Court ruling on whether parliament needs to be consulted on a triggering of Article 50 will be delivered in the week ahead. Markets are assuming that the government will lose the appeal and an expected rejection would have limited impact.
The latest UK CPI data is due on Tuesday January 17th at 04:30 EST and will have an important impact on overall Bank of England expectations.
The labour-market data will be released on Wednesday with the important December retail sales data due on Thursday.
5. Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Decision
The Bank of Canada will announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday January 18th at 10:00 EST
Governor Poloz will hold a news conference at 11:15 EST.
At this policy meeting, the Bank of Canada will announce its latest policy decision and also release its latest monetary policy report, which is published every other meeting.
There are strong expectations that the Bank of Canada will hold interest rates at 0.50%, but this will be a very important meeting for the central bank, especially after recent data.
The main focus will be on inflation, especially after the much weaker than expected CPI inflation data released in December. Any downgrading of inflation forecasts would increase speculation that the Bank of Canada will move to ease monetary policy during the first half of 2017.
Commentary on exports will also be important, especially after the better than expected trade data for November and any upgrading of export forecasts would lessen pressure for monetary easing.
Rhetoric surrounding the housing sector will also have important implications for financial stability and monetary policy.

Is there anything relevant relating to Turkey happening next week?

Bloomberg called the worst currency beginning in 2017
Turkish lira in the first 10 days of this year showed the worst results among all world currencies, Bloomberg reported. Lear fell against the dollar by 8.6 percent, which is added to a drop in its rate by 17 per cent in the last year. At the same time, within six trading sessions, the Turkish currency has established antirecord.
In part, this was due to market concerns about the fact that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will ask the Central Bank of Turkey for the support measures of economic growth, and this will lead to a further weakening of the lira. The need for such measures is caused by the first seven years of falling GDP in Turkey.

https://www.bloomberg.com/middleeast

Tuesday
11:30
17/1/17
GB CPI GOOD
(GB CPI), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Wednesday
11:30
18/1/17
GB The number of unemployed
(GB Claimant Count Change), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Wednesday
15:30
18/1/17
US Core CPI
(US Core CPI), US, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Wednesday
16:15
18/1/17
US Industrial Production
(US Industrial Production), USA, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 0.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Wednesday
17:00
18/1/17
1 new comments
CA overnight rate BC
(CA Overnight Rate), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

USD
Recall that the Fed in December 2016 (a month ago) raised its benchmark interest rate to a maximum threshold of 0.75%. At the same time the markets (and themselves FOMC) laid three interest rate rises in 2017. A factor of instability for the dollar at the moment is the inauguration of Trump, who recently noted that "a strong dollar makes US businesses to compete with China."
At the moment, the inflation indicator in the valuation Fed borders. Accordingly, his testimony with minimal deviations are poorly accepted by the market (be careful with low trigger). However, against the background of indicators likelihood of increasing Fed pledged markets in prices remains the backlash correction: as the first probable increase (50% chance) can only happen in the summer (which is "far away" if we "think" about three such opportunities).
Dollar remains in uncertainty and to some extent under the pressure, respectively, will remain attentive while Donald will not approve their views on the fact until his monologues only frustrate and defocused understanding of what is happening markets (anyone read direct transcription of the interview? This surrealistic stream of words just…).
CAD
The changes are not expected. What is good for the US is good for Canada. The latest trend in Canada has been pressure on the interest rate, which at the moment is probably not relevant for the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada.
From the closest interest rates are likely to pay attention to the Turkish, which is the first time we will try next week ...
PS If / when you see volatility at the time of the meeting of the Bank of Canada - do not complain the lack of abnormalities at a rate better than open text minutes of the meeting, because they may cause movement of Canadians.

Thursday
2:30
19/1/17
AU Number of employed DELAY
(AU Employment Change), Australia, the AUDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"
To be careful, it can be seen that for every Australian news (except rates), we present a warning that data providers are delivered with a delay, and not just ...
And because Australia does not have a formal process for data delivery (excluding interest) to users (all, and service providers as well). The article, dated the beginning of 2014, and a link to it can always be found in the section triggers, but we recently found the comment "trader" (in quotes for good reason), who complained of such oceanic shipping news. We saw a complete misunderstanding on his part of what is happening around the news trade. Well ... just can recommend to use vitamins, anything else that we can (and practically, and information), we have already done.
Pay critical attention that here, in the market of the Australian labor, the risk is not only delayed, but the conflict of publications, so in the conflict come indicators full / not full-time, she employment and unemployment, all of which are published at different times (with backlash in seconds).

Thursday
14:45
19/1/17
EU minimum interest rate of the Central Bank
(EU Minimum Bid Rate), the EU, EURUSD
Average reaction when trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
19/1/17
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
18:00
19/1/17
US reserves of crude oil and petroleum products
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Any ea here?