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AUD/USD

  • #100,361
  • Jan 9, 2017 10:12pm Jan 9, 2017 10:12pm
The long term fair value for AUD is 0.77USD. When AUD floating around 0.72, lots of thing cheaper than US and even cheaper than China. To knock AUD well below 0.72, USD needs to be extremely strong and extremely weak RMB (It means China economy get dramatic big trouble which is unlikely going to happen in this year).
  • #100,362
  • Jan 9, 2017 10:27pm Jan 9, 2017 10:27pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} Can't imagine us being anywhere near as cheap as African producers with our truck drivers in the mining industry earning 200k/pa. Also, each company has a different cost of production (even each mine). We only really have 2 major producers with a "low" cost of production - the rest have a relatively much higher cost of production. And even of the 2 (BHP and RIO) they have shut some mines because the cost of production for those is too high.
this current rally would you sell this top? if thats the case who keeps buying aussie dollars, although i was reading commetary people are hawkish on the rba above what they should be, i.e. its pricing in a rate rise way to early
  • #100,363
  • Jan 9, 2017 11:49pm Jan 9, 2017 11:49pm
plus i just double checked we are the biggest iron ore exporter in the world so even if Africa is cheaper it wont be enough, people have to buy our commodities, plus we generally sell higher quality especially our coal, its one of the highest grades. I did a graph at work and Australia looks pretty correlated to the price of iron ore.
  • #100,364
  • Jan 10, 2017 3:19am Jan 10, 2017 3:19am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} Going against a big, bold candle in the past for me was usually a losing trade so I no longer take that trade. I always wait for sign of weakness before I strike. If you still have the shorts, NFP is mixed and the trade appears to want to buy USD again. Your short may work out as USD Treasuries are rising. Well Done.

You were right, there was another rally, but I'm reday for a second bite.
  • #100,365
  • Jan 10, 2017 5:37am Jan 10, 2017 5:37am
Au longs

0.73376 + 0.73291

both are targeted for 10 pips
You need an ark? I NOAH GUY
  • #100,366
  • Jan 10, 2017 8:00am Jan 10, 2017 8:00am
Quoting breezetrade
Au longs 0.73376 + 0.73291 both are targeted for 10 pips
0.73376 done

will post more trades to take later/tommorow

if first trade wasnt taken dont re-enter wait for the second trade
You need an ark? I NOAH GUY
  • #100,367
  • Jan 10, 2017 8:49am Jan 10, 2017 8:49am
small risk short at 0.73736 hoping for 10 pips again (SL 10 pips)
You need an ark? I NOAH GUY
  • #100,368
  • Jan 10, 2017 8:51am Jan 10, 2017 8:51am
Quoting Ultiforex
{quote} You were right, there was another rally, but I'm reday for a second bite.
I just got back in on long side .73466. Cut profits too soon on longs yesterday because I had other fish to fry and had unfinished biz this morning.

The usual January USD rally has been cancelled this year due to lack of buyers, LOL. I am fairly certain there is some long action left this week so I am playing from long side into the Thur London close.

I was looking over the weekend and saw a better level to short on audusd. I will be watching price action around the level on the attached chart if price is in this area on Thurs AND slowing down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #100,369
  • Jan 10, 2017 9:13am Jan 10, 2017 9:13am
Quoting breezetrade
small risk short at 0.73736 hoping for 10 pips again (SL 10 pips)
Trade set at breakeven
You need an ark? I NOAH GUY
  • #100,370
  • Jan 10, 2017 9:33am Jan 10, 2017 9:33am
Quoting breezetrade
{quote} Trade set at breakeven
Another winner + 20 pips from au alone
You need an ark? I NOAH GUY
  • #100,371
  • Jan 10, 2017 4:30pm Jan 10, 2017 4:30pm
sold AU at 0.73819 SL 0.73919 now at B.E... see if it can get sub 700

Asia/Sydney like to buy... bought at some point during every session this year apart from 1st January... perhaps it will change this session
  • #100,372
  • Jan 10, 2017 6:39pm Jan 10, 2017 6:39pm
Selling good spot technically

News wise:
Trump seen with head of Alibaba- this may smooth the way to prevent a trade war with China. This is bullish on the Aussie and in part on the US

Economic figs:
AUD
Commodity index is up, building approvals are up, service index up, trade balance is up- although unemployment and job adverts dipped slightly- so overall slightly bullish.
US- economy going well, wage inflation hit target

Geopolitical - Trump's inauguration next week- might see USD weakness next week. All eyes are going to be on trump's inauguration speech

Fundamentally, (longer term)
US going raise rates
Aussie won't be doing anything

If there was some really crap news on the Aussie and/or strong news on the dollar I would be joining you
Good luck anyway
  • #100,373
  • Jan 10, 2017 7:56pm Jan 10, 2017 7:56pm
Quoting Don96
sold AU at 0.73819 SL 0.73919 now at B.E... see if it can get sub 700 Asia/Sydney like to buy... bought at some point during every session this year apart from 1st January... perhaps it will change this session

.73729 is a crucial S&R point on my chart set up.

I'm short now trading a monthly pattern, so that was a good enrty IMHO

I've previously talked about target TP 7100. Good luck.
  • #100,374
  • Jan 11, 2017 1:59am Jan 11, 2017 1:59am
Quoting Don96
sold AU at 0.73819 SL 0.73919 now at B.E... see if it can get sub 700 Asia/Sydney like to buy... bought at some point during every session this year apart from 1st January... perhaps it will change this session
yep Asia bought AU as per usual
  • #100,375
  • Jan 11, 2017 2:05am Jan 11, 2017 2:05am
This is why I wait for news.
This way you get instutional money moving the market -its more reliable
  • #100,376
  • Jan 11, 2017 2:41am Jan 11, 2017 2:41am
Quoting Don96
sold AU at 0.73819 SL 0.73919 now at B.E... see if it can get sub 700 Asia/Sydney like to buy... bought at some point during every session this year apart from 1st January... perhaps it will change this session
sold AU again at 0.73955 and 0.73919 with stops at 0.7399
  • #100,377
  • Jan 11, 2017 3:18am Jan 11, 2017 3:18am
will look to sell at 0.74119 for a targeted 10 pips

will look to buy at 0.73520 again for 10 pips

hopefully two winners like yesterday
You need an ark? I NOAH GUY
  • #100,378
  • Jan 11, 2017 3:31am Jan 11, 2017 3:31am
Quoting breezetrade
will look to sell at 0.74119 for a targeted 10 pips will look to buy at 0.73520 again for 10 pips hopefully two winners like yesterday
Also looking to short at 0.74180 for again 10 pips
You need an ark? I NOAH GUY
  • #100,379
  • Jan 11, 2017 3:45am Jan 11, 2017 3:45am
Quoting breezetrade
will look to sell at 0.74119 for a targeted 10 pips will look to buy at 0.73520 again for 10 pips hopefully two winners like yesterday
Just wondering why you would buy at .73520? It looks to me as though at that point the pair would have broken below the baseline of a pretty clear upward channel giving some indication we are going lower.
  • #100,380
  • Jan 11, 2017 4:22am Jan 11, 2017 4:22am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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