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AUD/USD

  • #100,341
  • Jan 5, 2017 10:50am Jan 5, 2017 10:50am
USD Liquidation Sale.....
That is my belief, the main culprits seem t be yuan and peso buying by cb's. Every usd denominated pair has been selling off usd's. Comdolls
esp. usdcad should be rising with oil dropping this morning after news, but it is also down. I suspect this is temporary, until exchange rates reach
painful levels for cb"s desperate to keep their currencies somewhat stable.
good luck,
regards
goma
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD m15 (01-05-2017 0925).jpg Size: 175 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCNH m15 (01-05-2017 0930).jpg Size: 127 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDMXN m15 (01-05-2017 0928).jpg Size: 155 KB
  • #100,342
  • Jan 5, 2017 11:15am Jan 5, 2017 11:15am
Quoting MarkNovell
i agree, There are some issue that I do not understand: 14:30USD Unemployment Claims 235K very good for currency ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.2 good for currency USD Final Services PMI 53.9 another good value... Why at all information Aud pullup respect Usd???? [Sorry for my bad english]
Part of the illogical aspect of the Forex market. A reason why we have twists and turns in the business.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #100,343
  • Jan 5, 2017 11:28am Jan 5, 2017 11:28am
Quoting MarkNovell
i agree, There are some issue that I do not understand: 14:30USD Unemployment Claims 235K very good for currency ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.2 good for currency USD Final Services PMI 53.9 another good value... Why at all information Aud pullup respect Usd???? [Sorry for my bad english]
The ADP payroll report was not good and Challenger job cuts were high. Neither of these bode well for the NFP on Friday.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #100,344
  • Jan 5, 2017 12:06pm Jan 5, 2017 12:06pm
Quoting newbegger
{quote} /...... very dangerous to short this pair at this time The trend is up, up, and away.

The curent price now is at the 61.8% Fib retracement of the last big sell off. A crucial S&R point; also hitting SMA indicator I like to use.

You may of course be right, but I have taken a short in line with my longer term strategy. Risky..... maybe? Thats Forex I will keep a close watch on where it goes next.
  • #100,345
  • Jan 5, 2017 12:37pm Jan 5, 2017 12:37pm
Quoting Ultiforex
{quote} The curent price now is at the 61.8% Fib retracement of the last big sell off. A crucial S&R point....
Clearer on the daily and 4H time frames.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #100,346
  • Jan 5, 2017 12:37pm Jan 5, 2017 12:37pm
Quoting newbegger
{quote} The ADP payroll report was not good and Challenger job cuts were high. Neither of these bode well for the NFP on Friday.
for NFP you intend Non-Farm Employment Change ?
  • #100,347
  • Jan 5, 2017 12:42pm Jan 5, 2017 12:42pm
Long entry- AUDUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.PNG Size: 64 KB
  • #100,348
  • Jan 5, 2017 3:27pm Jan 5, 2017 3:27pm
my projection: AUDUSD, price will pullback and reverse to break the TrendLine...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cPRBzwpN/

Twitter @scandicfx
Twitter/FB : @scandicfx
  • #100,349
  • Jan 5, 2017 7:48pm Jan 5, 2017 7:48pm
Still in a downtrend and still looking for one more move down to complete this pattern

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 140.png Size: 87 KB
  • #100,350
  • Jan 6, 2017 12:41am Jan 6, 2017 12:41am
Quoting Jfrancis
Still in a downtrend and still looking for one more move down to complete this pattern {image}
Im with you on this analysis.  Im starting to think on build positions for a  return to 0.7100. 
Well see the NFP
"Letting losses run is the most serious mistake made by most investors."W.O
  • #100,351
  • Jan 6, 2017 3:37am Jan 6, 2017 3:37am
Quoting liamseden
{quote} Im with you on this analysis.  Im starting to think on build positions for a  return to 0.7100. Well see the NFP
The technical analysis certainly seems to indicate that is where this pair is headed. I've taken shorts here.
  • #100,352
  • Jan 6, 2017 4:47am Jan 6, 2017 4:47am
I have a couple of longs from yesterday. Looking at the daily I feel there might be a range going on here although a major retracement is in order but who knows when. Back in may/june from the same key level it went up & didn't retrace big time until reaching 0.75. Will history repeat itself? good luck.
who dares wins
  • #100,353
  • Jan 6, 2017 8:28am Jan 6, 2017 8:28am
Quoting Ultiforex
{quote} The curent price now is at the 61.8% Fib retracement of the last big sell off. A crucial S&R point; also hitting SMA indicator I like to use. You may of course be right, but I have taken a short in line with my longer term strategy. Risky..... maybe? Thats Forex I will keep a close watch on where it goes next.
Going against a big, bold candle in the past for me was usually a losing trade so I no longer take that trade. I always wait for sign of weakness before I strike. If you still have the shorts, NFP is mixed and the trade appears to want to buy USD again. Your short may work out as USD Treasuries are rising. Well Done.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #100,354
  • Jan 6, 2017 8:47pm Jan 6, 2017 8:47pm
Most likely done with the ending diagonal (c), now resuming downtrend, expect complete retracement of ED swiftly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 7Jan16.png Size: 85 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #100,355
  • Jan 9, 2017 2:50am Jan 9, 2017 2:50am
09:49 01.09.2017 (gmt+1) AUDUSD sell Entry 0,7300 SL 0,7330 TP 0,7250 if wrong delete and buy Entry 0,7330 SL 0,7300 TP 0,7380 trailing stop suggested
No stress, spread is your friend
  • #100,356
  • Jan 9, 2017 11:52am Jan 9, 2017 11:52am
Where is this AUD and NZD strength coming from suddenly? I was short after that yesterdays strong bearish candle so I'm basically down 60 pips on both AUD and NZD >_>
  • #100,357
  • Jan 9, 2017 12:07pm Jan 9, 2017 12:07pm
Quoting slk
Buy 0.7180 TP 0.7580
Moved SL to 0.7250
  • #100,358
  • Jan 9, 2017 12:41pm Jan 9, 2017 12:41pm
Quoting coldvinc
Where is this AUD and NZD strength coming from suddenly? I was short after that yesterdays strong bearish candle so I'm basically down 60 pips on both AUD and NZD >_>
I'm TPing 0,75 on aud and 0,72 on NZD. Might close this because of recent drop in Oil but the recent gains come after al the manipulation closed and the actual prices start kicking in after the Positive trade balances, the retail sales Positive and on NZ side the dairy prices mainly Egg prics surging..
  • #100,359
  • Jan 9, 2017 8:52pm Jan 9, 2017 8:52pm
anyone wonder that maybe our service sector (58% of our economy: from rba ) is too competitive around the 72 cent level and we just start selling heaps more stuff, so fundamentally there is some form of support, plus iron ore 25% of our exports and coal 15% becomes supper supportive??????? because all commodities are in USD so this pair once dropping to a point should make us the cheapest supplier causing people to buy aud by default when they buy our coal or whatever???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud support.png Size: 67 KB
  • #100,360
  • Jan 9, 2017 9:11pm Jan 9, 2017 9:11pm
Quoting exofabulous
anyone wonder that maybe our service sector (58% of our economy: from rba ) is too competitive around the 72 cent level and we just start selling heaps more stuff, so fundamentally there is some form of support, plus iron ore 25% of our exports and coal 15% becomes supper supportive??????? because all commodities are in USD so this pair once dropping to a point should make us the cheapest supplier causing people to buy aud by default when they buy our coal or whatever??? {image}
Can't imagine us being anywhere near as cheap as African producers with our truck drivers in the mining industry earning 200k/pa.

Also, each company has a different cost of production (even each mine). We only really have 2 major producers with a "low" cost of production - the rest have a relatively much higher cost of production. And even of the 2 (BHP and RIO) they have shut some mines because the cost of production for those is too high.
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