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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #2,341
  • Jan 6, 2017 11:28am Jan 6, 2017 11:28am
Quoting Lock
17/01/06 FRIDAY 08:42+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT Y...... The most important references for today GB session (see other refs in the previous part of this post) could be the composite poc at 2419 (above current price location) and the composite poc at 2285 (below). .....
And here we are at the lower composite poc 2285. We saw the entire liquidation of yesterday short covering. And note that in order to reach the lower poc we spent almost the entire US session and not only the GB one.
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  • #2,342
  • Jan 6, 2017 11:33am Jan 6, 2017 11:33am
Note also that 2289 is the pit open for current year: who do you think is using such references? Short or longer timeframes traders? So if yesterday was a short covering, today is clearly a liquidation.
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  • #2,343
  • Jan 9, 2017 4:25am Jan 9, 2017 4:25am
17/01/09 MONDAY 11:25+1GMT
WEEKLY REPORT

As written in the new year report (03.01) after the failure above November 2016 balance, the natural initial direction was the opposite side of the monthly balance (november low 2204 level). The mid term trend was down and we were in a weekly one time framing lower mode. Last week interrupted once this modality going above the previous week high but then failed above it and closed well inside previous weekly range. As written the stop of one period in a one time framing action could underline the aging of a trend but could also be a simple adjustment of inventories (in this case too short).

Now, having said that, note a couple of things: tonight was Tokyo bank holiday and consequently the Tokyo probe downside is not so significant as it could be in a normal condition. The huge GB gap downside from Friday GB session low at 23413 is consequently less relevant but still, considering its dimension, it is very rare that such a gap could be filled the same day it has been created.

The new gap downside morphed the 2 old GB gaps at 2193-2207 zone (2193-21995 double pass downside from 10.27-28 and 2193-2207 gap upside from 10.31-11.01) respectively in a triple pass gap and a double pass gap: carry this information forward because it is very rare that a triple pas could "survive" in a normal condition.

Current GB session and tonight Tokyo session built already a substantial gap downside for upcoming preUS/pit US sessions. So even if structure upside is extremely poor I think that today we are going to see pit price action at least below 21365 (a previous pit poor low from 16.10.28): a test of the lowest pit low of october 2087 is consequently not impossible.
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  • #2,344
  • Jan 9, 2017 4:38am Jan 9, 2017 4:38am
11:38+1GMT
Note that 21135 is the October GB lowest low but is is also the "all time" GB low: so it could attract price action in order to remove stops below it initially and eventually to probe further downside. Note also anyway that this is the most dangerous zone for current price action, because around a monthly/yearly reference we could also find mid term or even long term buyers. So if you are selling this thing and if we will reach that level the correct approach could be close position right above it, wait for acceptation below it (if any) and evetually re place shorts below the level.
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  • #2,345
  • Jan 9, 2017 4:49am Jan 9, 2017 4:49am
F period high at half back.
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  • #2,346
  • Jan 9, 2017 4:52am Jan 9, 2017 4:52am
For any meaningfull continuation downside we do not want to see C clean space filled. If so we will not have anymore a possible double distribution profile and consequently the odds for a continuation downside will be reduced and the odds for a rotational environment will be bigger.

2164 is Tokyo low (overnight low) if we get acceptation above it we could go and fill the triple pass Gb gap upside (see previous post 2343) if we get rejection there we could come back downside in the direction of the GB "all time" low)
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  • #2,347
  • Jan 9, 2017 6:02am Jan 9, 2017 6:02am
Note H inside period of G: possible break from here.
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  • #2,348
  • Jan 9, 2017 6:04am Jan 9, 2017 6:04am
Quoting Lock
For any meaningfull continuation downside we do not want to see C clean space filled. If so we will not have anymore a possible double distribution profile and consequently the odds for a continuation downside will be reduced and the odds for a rotational environment will be bigger. ....
As you see we are currently in a rotational environment after the close of the C clean space between the 2 early distributions.
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  • #2,349
  • Jan 9, 2017 6:05am Jan 9, 2017 6:05am
Also note the G and H periods' highs both at open price 2181: weak environment ruled by short and daily timeframes using exact very visible references.
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  • #2,350
  • Jan 9, 2017 6:06am Jan 9, 2017 6:06am
i just went short at 1.2166 , i am fairly certain pound is near the bottom now and will bounce hard from 1.2 or maybe even 1.21 but i dont think (and hope) todays low will hold.
Loser trying to become a winner!
  • #2,351
  • Jan 9, 2017 6:24am Jan 9, 2017 6:24am
Quoting MyOpinion
i just went short at 1.2166 , i am fairly certain pound is near the bottom now and will bounce hard from 1.2 or maybe even 1.21 but i dont think (and hope) todays low will hold.
For now we got a rotational/balance GB session, the mid term trend is down and, yes, the "all time" GB low is clearly very attractive. Also upcoming preUS/pit sessions will open probably with huge gap downside. Inventories are very short right now but I also think that the "all time GB" low could be tested. Anyway let's take this market a piece at the time. For now this market is ruled by very indecisive weak hands.
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  • #2,352
  • Jan 9, 2017 6:50am Jan 9, 2017 6:50am
Note that 2160 is the lowest GB October close but it is also the lowest close for GB ("all time close"). So all this rotation around this level is pretty normal.
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  • #2,353
  • Jan 9, 2017 7:04am Jan 9, 2017 7:04am
PreUS opened with a huge gap downside from Friday pit session low 2260. Invenories are still very short. Next visible reference downside is the lowest pit close of October at 21188 that is also the "all time" pit lowest close. Upside we have instead the last lowest low (lowest low of this new year) for pit session at 21987 (a previous poor low 03.01).
Also as said this morning, if price will remain around here untill pit open, with any probability we will see at least the correction of the lower poor low at 21365. And maybe a test below the all time pit low at 20872.
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  • #2,354
  • Jan 9, 2017 7:13am Jan 9, 2017 7:13am
Let's spend some words about confidence. It is a very important factor in order to manage our own expectations. So what about today preUS confidence? PreUS opened with a huge gap downside, test above 3 pips and went down: for now confidence is pretty high. Our expectation could be higher than normal. Note anyhow that confidence is dynamic reference: it can change during the session development. But at least we have a base. An open inside the previous session range or value, without a gap and maybe with price up and down open multiple times, surely would give us a totally different base and consequently substantially different and lower expectations.
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  • #2,355
  • Jan 9, 2017 7:18am Jan 9, 2017 7:18am
21353 is the first weekly balance low after the break of 07.10.16*. So it is a very important ref too.

*sorry If I switch continuously from English dates to American English dates: in this case I'm referring clearly to the break of 7 October 2016.
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  • #2,356
  • Jan 9, 2017 7:35am Jan 9, 2017 7:35am
Quoting giveachance
longer term cable will still go to 1.18-1.16-1.14 before giving a powerful bounce to 1.45-1.52-1.60
1.20 will be busted open in next 2-3 sessions.
  • #2,357
  • Jan 9, 2017 7:39am Jan 9, 2017 7:39am
Quoting Lock
Let's spend some words about confidence. It is a very important factor in order to manage our own expectations. So what about today preUS confidence? PreUS opened with a huge gap downside, test above 3 pips and went down: for now confidence is pretty high. Our expectation could be higher than normal. Note anyhow that confidence is dynamic reference: it can change during the session development. But at least we have a base. An open inside the previous session range or value, without a gap and maybe...
And in fact: how do you judge a market action that went down to GB low and just a pip above it went up again to price open? A confident strong action or a very unsecure narrow based trading style price action? So as you see confidence is a dynamic ref and today after preUS open it went from high confidence to low confidence in just 1 period.
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  • #2,358
  • Jan 9, 2017 8:51am Jan 9, 2017 8:51am
Quoting Lock
..... Also as said this morning, if price will remain around here untill pit open, with any probability we will see at least the correction of the lower poor low at 21365. And maybe a test below the all time pit low at 20872.
And here we are at the 21365 first tag.
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  • #2,359
  • Jan 9, 2017 8:53am Jan 9, 2017 8:53am
Quoting Lock
{quote} And here we are at the 21365 first tag.
Corrected.
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  • #2,360
  • Jan 10, 2017 1:58am Jan 10, 2017 1:58am
17/01/10 TUESDAY 08:58+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Overnight inventories inbalances could generally lead to the following two situations: a correction, at least partially, of them made by the following stronger session or a limitation of the progress of the following stronger session in the same direction of the imbalance.
Yesterday Tokyo, GB and preUS built inventories 100% short* from Friday pit unchanged(2279). So we could have a correction of them (and in part we got it because if you see pit session spent its entire action going upside) or at least a limitation of the action downside (and in fact pit US was not able to test below its own "all time" low at 20872 as most of us were waiting for.)

*Inventories 100% short mean that all the activity occurred after Friday pit session settle (close/unchange are both synonyms in this case) was below this level.

As you could see all the unchanged levels made yesterday have been established just a fiew pips above their respective "all time" unchanged/close levels: Tokyo closed at 21818, while its "all time" October 2016 close was at 2163, GB close is at 21647 while its "all time" October 2016 close was at 2160 and finally yes pit unch is at 2158 while its respective October close is at 21188. These levels give us a good information about current confidence: clearly very low.

As a recap, we are in a long term trend downside** (monthly), in a mid term trend downside (weekly), a short term trend downside (daily) and currently we have a cluster at Tokyo half back 2154 and a substantial imbalance of inventories clearly very very short. So in such condition if price will come up from here we could imagine some sort of correction of current inventories but for now we should not have new money buying: nor without a test below the all time lows, specially the pit low at 20872. And, even in this case if new money will be found below these levels we have to expect at least a mid term balance before any new serious reversal of current long term trend downside.

**Technically we are in a monthly balance: only a close of current month below balance could let us speak about trend downside continuation. But overall the long trend is clearly down.
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