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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #2,321
  • Jan 5, 2017 9:29am Jan 5, 2017 9:29am
Now we need acceptation also above yes high and overnight (Tokyo high)
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  • #2,322
  • Jan 5, 2017 9:30am Jan 5, 2017 9:30am
Quoting Lock
Note that current high for 2017 has been made by Tokyo: so it is not a particularly good high (23623).
Taken out.
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  • #2,323
  • Jan 5, 2017 9:44am Jan 5, 2017 9:44am
Quoting Lock
16:06+1GMT For now we are still inside yes pit range but, in case of attempt above or below yes pit range, note that above the first visible ref is the old poor high at 23904. Below we have instead two composite pocs (you know where) and a very far poor low at 21987. Above 23904 we have an other poor high at 24268 and then the big higher composite poc at 2431. I repeat it: for now we are still inside yesterday pit session, so there is also the possibility to remain inside balance.
Note that we are in one timeframing lower in the weekly timeframe: so if we go above last week high we will interrupt this modality for the first time after 3 weeks.
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  • #2,324
  • Jan 5, 2017 9:47am Jan 5, 2017 9:47am
Quoting Lock
16:06+1GMT For now we are still inside yes pit range but, in case of attempt above or below yes pit range, note that above the first visible ref is the old poor high at 23904. Below we have instead two composite pocs (you know where) and a very far poor low at 21987. Above 23904 we have an other poor high at 24268 and then the big higher composite poc at 2431. I repeat it: for now we are still inside yesterday pit session, so there is also the possibility to remain inside balance.
23904 tagged.
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  • #2,325
  • Jan 5, 2017 9:49am Jan 5, 2017 9:49am
In case of continuation above 23904 note that 2408 is a Tokyo poor high from 16.12.20.
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  • #2,326
  • Jan 5, 2017 9:53am Jan 5, 2017 9:53am
Quoting Lock
In case of continuation above 23904 note that 2408 is a Tokyo poor high from 16.12.20.
Tagged.
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  • #2,327
  • Jan 5, 2017 9:55am Jan 5, 2017 9:55am
Quoting Lock
16:06+1GMT For now we are still inside yes pit range but, in case of attempt above or below yes pit range, note that above the first visible ref is the old poor high at 23904. Below we have instead two composite pocs (you know where) and a very far poor low at 21987. Above 23904 we have an other poor high at 24268 and then the big higher composite poc at 2431. I repeat it: for now we are still inside yesterday pit session, so there is also the possibility to remain inside balance.
These are the last visible nearest references I have. Note the very elongated profile of current pit session: a lot of single pips for C and B periods. Carry this info forward.
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  • #2,328
  • Jan 5, 2017 9:56am Jan 5, 2017 9:56am
Quoting Lock
In case of continuation above 23904 note that 2408 is a Tokyo poor high from 16.12.20.
After the TAG: taken out.
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  • #2,329
  • Jan 5, 2017 10:02am Jan 5, 2017 10:02am
Quoting Lock
16:06+1GMT For now we are still inside yes pit range but, in case of attempt above or below yes pit range, note that above the first visible ref is the old poor high at 23904. Below we have instead two composite pocs (you know where) and a very far poor low at 21987. Above 23904 we have an other poor high at 24268 and then the big higher composite poc at 2431. I repeat it: for now we are still inside yesterday...
24268 TAKEN OUT. Here we are at the higher major composite poc 2431.

2428 is the half back of the entire bracket from 10.25.
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  • #2,330
  • Jan 5, 2017 10:05am Jan 5, 2017 10:05am
I'm off for now. Have a nice continuation. Best L.
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  • #2,331
  • Jan 6, 2017 1:42am Jan 6, 2017 1:42am
17/01/06 FRIDAY 08:42+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday someone could have been surprised by my final consideration about the 2428 level. In fact I decided to be off right after pit session reached this level. But if you consider the extreme elongation of the C and B periods and the two consequent very big minus development left by this action upwards, my reaction could be considered pretty natural. The odds were, after such a sharp and fast move, to come back in order to correct some of those single pips and anomalies. Then, if you notice, for the entire Tokyo session we saw price coming slowly down in order to perform this correction.

Now, having said that, current price location is far above yesterday GB session high at 23247. So potentially we are going to open with a substantial GB gap higher. Also we got an old very suspect 2 pips GB gap at 23877-23893 that, if price will remain around here untill open, has a lot of probabilities to be filled by upcoming GB session.

Note that while yesterday we still were in a weekly one timeframing lower action, the pit upwards movement interrupted this modality: this does not mean that the mid term downtrend is necessarly over, but at least it could warn us about this possibility. It could have been only a very normal correction of inventories too short, so we have to see now in order to evaluate the final result of this correction.

Downside we left 2 pit poor lows (21987 and 21365) and there is no any pit gap above them in order to protect them, at least untill today. So today will be important also for pit session, because we have to see if a gap will be built above yesterday pit session or not. If not, the odds for a correction of those poor lows will increase.

So, as a recap: we are in balance in the monthly timeframe. We are in a 2 periods balance in the weekly timeframe (but it has the possibility to return to the old mid term downtrend), we are in a short term up trend in the daily timeframe. Overall we are in an extremely indecisive and unsecure market. I see a total lack of confidence in any direction for now and only inbalances corrections: from "too short" to "too long" and vice-versa.

The most important references for today GB session (see other refs in the previous part of this post) could be the composite poc at 2419 (above current price location) and the composite poc at 2285 (below). Then between those levels we have 23315 and 23117: and you should know what they are. In case of continuation upside we have a poor high at 2499 from 12.19 while instead in case of a total correction of what we saw yesterday we have a double pass gap at 2193-21995. A good trader should always have at least 3 different scenarios to consider at any session open.

Have a nice trading day.
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  • #2,332
  • Jan 6, 2017 2:39am Jan 6, 2017 2:39am
Twelfth Night consequences? For now it's an holiday standard. There is nobody here.
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  • #2,333
  • Jan 6, 2017 2:55am Jan 6, 2017 2:55am
Remember that 23873 is the last week high ( pit session high) consequently it is a very important level here because we are trying to understand if the mid term downtrend is still in place or not: acceptation above this level could be an indication that the mid term weekly downtrend is at least aging. Rejection above this level, at the opposite, could let us imagine that what we saw in the last couple of days was probably an adjusting of too short inventories and not new money buying.

Also remember that as we wrote this morning the 2 pips GB gap at 23877-23893 has good odds to be filled. If not this fact could be read as a significant signal agains progression upside.
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  • #2,334
  • Jan 6, 2017 3:01am Jan 6, 2017 3:01am
Quoting Lock
....Also remember that as we wrote this morning the 2 pips GB gap at 23877-23893 has good odds to be filled. If not this fact could be read as a significant signal agains progression upside.
Filled. (at the pip)
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  • #2,335
  • Jan 6, 2017 3:03am Jan 6, 2017 3:03am
[quote=Lock;9409986]17/01/06 FRIDAY 08:42+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT Yesterday someone could have been surprised by my final consideration about the 2428 level. In fact I decided to be off right after pit session reached this level. But if you consider the extreme elongation of the C and B periods and the two

I'm not 100%, 23315 is the high of yesterdays pit VA, 23117 is the same session half back.
  • #2,336
  • Jan 6, 2017 3:12am Jan 6, 2017 3:12am
[quote=Zaak;9410239]
Quoting Lock
17/01/06 FRIDAY 08:42+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT Yesterday someone could have been surprised by my final consideration about the 2428 level. In fact I decided to be off right after pit session reached this level. But if you consider the extreme elongation of the C and B periods and the two I'm not 100%, 23315 is the high of yesterdays pit VA, 23117 is the same session half back.

Good. But please note:

23315 is the first GB daily bracket high from 10.19, while 23117 is the 11.21 GB weekly bracket low: they are mid term references. Obviously they could also coincide with other minor refs. Best. L

Note: always have a top down perspective, any single day: you have to start from monthly chart back to daily one. Then, and only then, you have to study sessions and other lower timeframe references. This will keep you in the right perspective and will create a context for any further day time frame consideration (and decision).
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  • #2,337
  • Jan 6, 2017 3:35am Jan 6, 2017 3:35am
Quoting Lock
Quoting Zaak
{quote} Good. But please note: 23315 is the first GB daily bracket high from 10.19, while 23117 is the 11.21 GB weekly bracket low: they are mid term references. Obviously they could also coincide with other minor refs. Best. L Note: always have a top down perspective, any single day: you have to start from monthly chart back to daily one. Then, and only then, you have to study sessions and other lower timeframe references. This will keep you in the right perspective and will create a context for any further day time frame consideration
...
Yes top down as D says. also so references can go back months, form the MN.

and thanks Lock.
  • #2,338
  • Jan 6, 2017 6:49am Jan 6, 2017 6:49am
Quoting Lock
{quote} These are the last visible nearest references I have. Note the very elongated profile of current pit session: a lot of single pips for C and B periods. Carry this info forward.
Quoting Lock
{quote} 24268 TAKEN OUT. Here we are at the higher major composite poc 2431. 2428 is the half back of the entire bracket from 10.25.
Quoting Lock
Remember that 23873 is the last week high ( pit session high) consequently it is a very important level here because we are trying to understand if the mid term downtrend is still in place or not: acceptation above this level could be an indication that the mid term weekly downtrend is at least aging.
Quoting Lock
Rejection above this level, at the opposite, could let us imagine that what we saw in the last couple of days was probably an adjusting of too short inventories and not new money buying.
Quoting Lock
Also remember that as we wrote this morning the 2 pips GB gap at 23877-23893 has good odds to be filled. If not this fact could be read as a significant signal agains progression upside.
Just to remind what is going on:

Yesterday pit session made a test upside, very fast and sharp. Too many single pips for B and C periods and relatives minus developments and anomalies.

  1. Pit progress upside stopped exactly at 2428, the half back of the entire bracket from 10.25.
  2. From there Tokyo started the liquidation and the filling of the minus developments left by pit session.
  3. GB open with a substantial gap higher.
  4. GB filled the very suspect 2 pips gap left by previous sessions.
  5. GB also tested above 23873, the last week high and failed above it.
  6. Immediately after this failure, GB started to liquidate, continuing the Tokyo action.
  7. GB went down and stopped exactly at 2342 that is the GB 2017 open (at the pip).

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  • #2,339
  • Edited 7:16am Jan 6, 2017 6:57am | Edited 7:16am
So, I think we have seen liquidation today, at least for now. Inventories are substantially 100% short right now and we are inside yesterday pit session range. (inventories are calculated as the activity that took place after the pit unchanged: where did the activity take place after yesterday pit close (2413)? Mostly below yesterday pit close, consequently the inventories are, as written, almost 100% short right now)

In such a condition if price continue lower we will have inventories even more short than they currently are: consider carefully this aspect. This does not mean that we are going to see necessarly an immediate correction of them: but carry this information forward.
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  • #2,340
  • Jan 6, 2017 7:44am Jan 6, 2017 7:44am
Quoting Lock
Remember that 23873 is the last week high ( pit session high) consequently it is a very important level here because we are trying to understand if the mid term downtrend is still in place or not: ........
[quote=Lock;9410260]
Quoting Zaak
{quote} Good. But please note: 23315 is the first GB daily bracket high from 10.19,......).
Which are the current extremes of this shake out(B period range)? 23873 above and 23315 below.
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