USD/JPY Discussion

 
Good.
 
I'm adding shorts. Let's see payroll... but
 
116.4 to 117.1 area retrace.
Target 112. And less.
 
Give it few weeks.
GL.

If anyone is interested ...

DEC16 NFP – consensus: 175k (prev 178k)
DEC16 Unemployment – consensus: 4.7% (prev 4.6%)

Bank Forecast
Wells Fargo: 185k
Credit Agricole: 185k ; 4.7%
Goldman Sachs: 180k ; 4.7%
UBS: 170k ; 4.6%
Danske: 170k ; 4.7%
BoAML: 175k ; 4.8%
Nomura: 175k ; 4.7%
Barclays: 175k ; 4.7%
SEB: 190k ; 4.7%
CIBC: 165k
UOB: 250k ; 4.5%

Dollar gaining back some grounds pre nfp...might buy some if it goes back to 115.6 see if London open will push it back

Looking for Bearish incoming weeks...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/8cjuErZ2/

happy trading

@scandicfx

Lets see now, good bounce

I'm not feeling confident with Asian bounce, ahead of NFP, could be pump before dump

Sl hit -28

Considering E/U Up-strong right?

Considering USD index fall

The 115.1x area is the FED area, from where it rose US rates. We retraced back there.

Same thing for the EURUSD at 1.065x

Once the levels go...its over for dollars bulls (at least temporary)

sorry for late reply
i have been out of Forexfactory
anyways you were right but trade with 0.5:1 leverage trade that means
0.05 Lot with 20K account was not even a normal risk for me,
but i was wrong hedged that position and till now it is doing good i trade other pairs a lot then YEN
but yes yen at times can be a Great pair to trade if you know what you are doing..
anyways cheers mate
happy new year to all..

can some one please tell me why my TRADE EXPLORER at forexfactory not working i updated it on myfxbook.com and it seems to be working fine not here
i tried many times
here is myfxbook.com link..
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Tra...income/1917097

[quote=nessus94;9410271]{quote} Considering USD index fall The 115.1x area is the FED area, from where it rose US rates. We retraced back there. Same thing for the EURUSD at 1.065x Once the levels go...its over for dollars bulls (at least temporary)]

Agreed i was looking at all major pairs and it seems that USD will be weak in coming weeks atleast then who knows..
anyways trade on your own risk guys
Good luck

I favor short till inauguration

For the moment I have a long position, my target is at 118.00.

$USDJPY
Daily view

Technical structure formed
Low probability bullish breakout: 51% probability.
Break of resistance at 118.611 calls for upside to a measured target of 121.08.
Price trades with momentum to the upside, confluent with the established trend. OBOS signals have cooled and a move to the upside in the next few trading days seems likely.
Price often fails at the target and pulls back bearishly. Some see this as a topping structure, I'm not convinced.



Trade safe.

S/R : 116.50 / 117.60

USD/JPY has bullish momentum due to surprise higher than expected wage inflation in Dec NFP report... hope it can stay above 117 and maybe break 118 next week.

Hi bro,
Sorry I'm late to give you the screenshots.
Now I'm free, so I'm gonna give you more detail explanation why I took long position.

Indicators I use:

1. Bollinger Bands
2. Ichimoku
3. RSI
4. MACD
5. Stochastic
6. SMA 50,100,200
7. SAR
8. Fibonnaci (retracement and extension)

Charts I use (in sequence):
1. Daily
2. H4
3. H1

Explanation:
1. Daily chart
- Price already hit lower band
- Price above Ichimoku cloud and above Kijun-sen, Chikou span above price
- RSI > 50 and also divergence
- SMA 50 already crossed over SMA 100 and SMA 200 also SMA 100 already crossed over SMA 200. Price above those 3 SMAs
- Still hold above 23.6 Fibo

Note:
Still risky because still below trend line I draw, still below middle band, SAR point still above price and MACD still below yesterday value.



2. H4 chart
- Price already hit lower band
- MACD crossed over signal
- Stochastic oversold and going up
- Price above 200 SMA and already hit 200 SMA
- SAR below price

Note:
I have made a mistake not pay attention to 200 SMA and my SL to tight. My SL got hit @155.10 where 200 SMA is @155.27. Still risky because price still below 100 SMA and price hasnt above Senkou span



3. H1 chart
- Price going upward from lower band and already above middle band
- Chikou span has crossed over and above price. Price above Kijun-sen
- SAR below price
- RSI above 50
- MACD value and signal above 0 line

Note:
Still risky because price still hasnt success to break and close above 200 SMA. 100 SMA has crossed up and down 200 SMA in the previous hour. Stochastic also heading down.



Other reasons I still holding my long position are based on H4 chart:

1. I saw Gartley pattern which I have mentioned in the previous reply. On H4 chart I draw Fibonacci retracement from 114.73 (low on 12 Dec 2016) to 118.66 (high on 15 Dec 2016). For Gartley pattern there are XABCD, to easy remember I use high (X), low (A), 61.8 (B), 38,2 (C) and 78.6 (D) from Fibonacci retracement. The price now always really exactly hit the line, sometimes it also break through the line.
2. The price has break through the 50 Fibonacci which I use as pivot point. Next resistance will be 117.14, 117.72 and 118.66 (will be different from mine. Watch your own chart for 38.2, 23.6 and 0 Fibo).
3. From the Fibonacci I see the price moving in a rectangle pattern, it means moving sideways. The possibilities are if break and close below 114.70 maybe it will continue to downward or if break and close above 118.66 maybe it will continue to upward.
4. For the target I use the range from high and low from Fibonacci retracement. It almost 400 pips, but I try to trade safe by taking 300 pips. So for long my target is 121.50 (118.66 + 300 some pips). For short I will open position when it break and close below 114.70.

Sorry for too much explanation from me and the really mess charts

Warning:
Read my signature

I read your signature. We all should keep learning to prosper in this business. Would you think of simplifying your set-ups? At least minimize your decision points and reduce your indicators. Just my opinion. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

My very simplistic analysis:

Sp is just a touch below 61.8% entrancement after the sell-off. This coincides with previous support level. On my charts 117.1 is also an important price, it may very well reach it (again after Friday), and it's quite possible that will be it for now. These are just possibilities though.

niubee - those charts look awesome, but they are minimised, any chance you could post full size?